Demographics Can't Be Beat

[colojo]

I'm based at a very busy airport, and there is plenty of activity going on in every age group.

I'm almost 52. I share a hangar with the owners of a Pilatus PC-12. They're in their late 60's but are not pilots. The two pilots they employ, both good friends of mine, are 45 and 28. The 28-year-old guy flies with me all the time; we met at OSH last summer and have become fast friends.

We have a number of very busy flying clubs on our field, with lots of instruction going on... everything from PPL's to tailwheel endorsements to Acro to CFI, CFII and ATP. Across from my hangar is parked the busiest 172 on the field; it's the primary trainer for one of the most active flying clubs. It's in the air constantly and I often see it being preflighted by young men and women in their late teens and early twenties. One of the waiters at a nearby restaurant I frequent is 19 and working on his instrument ticket. He just enrolled in the aviation school at K-State.

My CFII is 35 and flies a Falcon jet for a living. Very ambitious fellow. Has his ATP and is an FAA examiner. I've been flying with him for ten years.

On Saturday mornings in the summer time, the Wings Over the Rockies Aviation Museum takes school teachers and young kids for free rides in their Stearman to help promote aviation among our youth and those who teach them. The program is wildly successful.

So, Jay, next time you're feeling blue about the future of GA, c'mon up to APA in your RV-8A. I'll invite all my flying friends, young and old, and we'll kick it for an afternoon in my hangar. And the scotch is on me!

 

[Jay Honeck]

So, Jay, next time you're feeling blue about the future of GA, c'mon up to APA in your RV-8A. I'll invite all my flying friends, young and old, and we'll kick it for an afternoon in my hangar. And the scotch is on me!

Now here's a guy who clearly understands what it's gonna take to save GA. Sounds good to me!

The man who owned my hangar before me -- a Flying Tiger -- had open bar at this hangar every day for many years. Mary and I have continued the tradition, and maintain a fully stocked bar for all comers. We usually draw a good crowd.

I just wish we could get some young pilots on the field.

 

[denverpilot]

My CFII is 35 and flies a Falcon jet for a living. Very ambitious fellow. Has his ATP and is an FAA examiner. I've been flying with him for ten years.

Ahh I know him. He's a good guy. Good plates on his car too. Ambitious is an understatement with him.

 

[SoonerAviator]

I got my ticket prior to getting married (was around 26), so the little bit of expendable income I had was used to get the license. After I got the ticket, I was busy with my current girlfriend (now wife), buying a home, etc. which left no money or time for flying. I've only logged around 20 hours since 2009, so I can't say flying is enough of a priority to go search out old guys sitting in an open hangar at an airport 20 minutes away.

I do think that in the next 7-10 years there will be a lot of the older generation who can no longer pass medical or need some additional cash, which means a ton of aircraft coming up for sale. Not good for the market, but great for me. Those $70K Bo's, Comanches, Commanders will be inching toward $50K and lower, which will be in the ballpark of what I'm willing to spend.

Don't get me wrong, if I owned an aircraft I'd probably spend some time hangar flying once or twice a month. For those of us who rent, there's not a lot of ways to meet the "old boys club" unless you go searching for it specifically. My local airports are pretty devoid of public flying clubs as well, so it makes the chance for comradarie even more remote.

For those few who keep bashing on social media as a means of the younger generation to communicate, I'm willing to bet those sites have spawned a lot of people to meet up locally at far greater rates than they otherwise would. In fact, I bet if the old curmudgeons would embrace the social platforms, they could draw tons of people into their group just by letting everyone know it existed.

 

[Jay Honeck]

For those few who keep bashing on social media as a means of the younger generation to communicate, I'm willing to bet those sites have spawned a lot of people to meet up locally at far greater rates than they otherwise would. In fact, I bet if the old curmudgeons would embrace the social platforms, they could draw tons of people into their group just by letting everyone know it existed.

Agree 100%. There is an odd resistance to social media by some pilots that does, indeed, hamper our ability to spread the word about GA.

We have an email group for our airport gang, rather than a Facebook page, precisely for this reason. Old timers have embraced email, but not FB, for reasons that escape me.

Luckily, there are younger pilots who are picking up the slack. In the Austin area there is a large Facebook group, for example, that has been successful at organizing some large flyouts.

Unfortunately, at my airport the younger pilots are few and far between.

 

[BigBadLou]

True, Jay, having a way to connect people of certain interests would sure help aviation as well. Email is the oldest method of connecting people digitally (that's probably why it is accepted so well by us "old-timers" ) but there are other good ones too.

We have an AustinAviator MeetUp group here in Austin. MeetUp is an online resource to create events and get people together. It has a huge benefit over FB: it does not require FB to exist, it has no drama, no fluff, no billions of selfies, no spam "do you know this person from HS?" and no annoying ads. It serves the great purpose of people meeting up. It is still in its infancy, though, its name is spreading slowly but steadily.

The young Austin pilots also created the infamous ShareAviation webpage. It was supposed to transcend FB and connect aviators from across the world. I loved it when it started but then it quickly went downhill and turned into FB full of selfies and drama again.

But when we want to organize a fly-out, we throw it up on MeetUp, I text some friend pilots, email others, telegraph the rest, doesn't matter what method, as long as we get people together to fly-out or fly-ins.

One day, mark my word, we'll do a Jay's Hotel Invasion.

 

[zaitcev]

Not to sound callous but as the older people get out of aviation, used planes will be much cheaper as the supply skyrockets. It planes get cheaper it may entice young people back into aviation... Perhaps it's cyclical?

Sorry to disappoint, but this isn't going to happen. Since most of the retirees are going to hold onto the planes without flying them, they are going to dump worthless planes on the market, with some nuggets here and there, but mostly projects. Corrosion, runouts, 2020 noncompliant, ADs not addressed. Eventually all of them will be parted out.

As far as the cyclicity goes, I don't expect much of that either, because in numerical sense the collapse of GA was producing most airplanes in 2000s. If anything, we're petering out. When the Jay's wave comes, it will contain fewer old pilots than previous ones.

 

[zaitcev]

MeetUp (...) has a huge benefit over FB: it does not require FB to exist, it has no drama, no fluff, (...)

 

[zaitcev]

This was incredibly apparent at OSH. Four of us at age 20 were by far the youngest people in the North 40 not accompanied by a parent.

Paging Capt. White, Captain David White to the courtesy telephone please

 

[SoonerAviator]

Sorry to disappoint, but this isn't going to happen. Since most of the retirees are going to hold onto the planes without flying them, they are going to dump worthless planes on the market, with some nuggets here and there, but mostly projects. Corrosion, runouts, 2020 noncompliant, ADs not addressed. Eventually all of them will be parted out.

As far as the cyclicity goes, I don't expect much of that either, because in numerical sense the collapse of GA was producing most airplanes in 2000s. If anything, we're petering out. When the Jay's wave comes, it will contain fewer old pilots than previous ones.

I'm sure there will be plenty of non-2020 compliant birds and some that haven't flown in 3-4 years. The market will account for that, and you'll be able to pick them up for a song. Like a nice Comanche for $30K which needs a new panel and some TLC to get it back to snuff. You'll end up with $50K in a bird that currently goes for $65K+. The common theme with a lot of fire sales and estate sales, is that the kids/beneficiaries don't usually want to wait for top-dollar, so they sell low. Same thing will happen with aircraft.


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[Jay Honeck]

I'm sure there will be plenty of non-2020 compliant birds and some that haven't flown in 3-4 years. The market will account for that, and you'll be able to pick them up for a song. Like a nice Comanche for $30K which needs a new panel and some TLC to get it back to snuff. You'll end up with $50K in a bird that currently goes for $65K+. The common theme with a lot of fire sales and estate sales, is that the kids/beneficiaries don't usually want to wait for top-dollar, so they sell low. Same thing will happen with aircraft.


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Exactly. This is happening already.

There are a lot of hangars on the field that I have never seen open. Those planes become worth less every year, and act as a drag on the market. In the next 10 years, this will accelerate, as the Vietnam generation cycle out and their next of kin sell these planes for whatever they can get.

After them, there's a smaller group of pilots my age. We will cycle out in the next 15 years.

And after my generation? Well... You 25 year old guys are gonna have some screaming good deals on used airplanes and hangars.

 

[denverpilot]

I'm sure there will be plenty of non-2020 compliant birds and some that haven't flown in 3-4 years. The market will account for that, and you'll be able to pick them up for a song. Like a nice Comanche for $30K which needs a new panel and some TLC to get it back to snuff. You'll end up with $50K in a bird that currently goes for $65K+. The common theme with a lot of fire sales and estate sales, is that the kids/beneficiaries don't usually want to wait for top-dollar, so they sell low. Same thing will happen with aircraft.

Yes but, a rebuild at today's devalued dollar value isn't going to be cheap. The longer one has to wait for the "deal" on the junker, the worse the rebuild price gets.

People talk about the fiscal crisis of '08 like it's in the past, but it was "fixed" with fiscal (to borrow a phrase from the late Justice Scalia..) jiggery-pokery.

See the Cirrus thread. Paraphrased in there is the hard reality that Cirrus "never recovered to pre-crisis sales numbers" after '08. Nobody has.

Why? Devaluation of the dollar. The economy isn't booming, it's still limping heavily after being artificially propped up.

Cirrus themselves are being artificially propped up by Chinese investors, even.

Run out engines are one of the major problems facing mass rebuild of the GA fleet. What does a good quality engine overhaul run these days? Way more than the airframe is worth, and climbing.

The light twin market shows it the clearest. You can already pick up an airframe for a song. It's the engine replacements that will push the price to 1/3 of the average home loan (which is paid off over a 30 year period -- and those engines won't make it 30 years if you fly it.)

Adding in all the things that need fixing because they literally rot away while the airframe sits, it becomes a loser fast.

Now toss in a complete panel rebuild with /G and 2020...

Maybe you can afford it, maybe you can't, and flying was never cheap, but we're essentially remanufacturing the 30+ year old fleet now.

Or you plunk down half a million minimum for something new.

And while we're having a bit of a reprieve in fuel price right now, it's going to go up again. If it's fat slow and inefficient, it's going to hurt a lot to operate it again in a few years.

The real question isn't going to be whether or not there will be run out trashed airplane deals. There will be. It's whether or not there will be enough buyers with enough cash on hand to essentially remanufacture them.

 

[Brad Z]

Gosh, we should all put on our purple Nike high-tops, stage a mass suicide, and get it over with.

Jeez there's a lot of pessimism on this thread! I somehow think GA will be alive and well come January 2, 2020. I also don't believe waves of GA pilots align with wars either, but just in case, we need to do something before all of the Grenada invasion veterans die off.

 

[SoonerAviator]

Gosh, we should all put on our purple Nike high-tops, stage a mass suicide, and get it over with.



Jeez there's a lot of pessimism on this thread! I somehow think GA will be alive and well come January 2, 2020. I also don't believe waves of GA pilots align with wars either, but just in case, we need to do something before all of the Grenada invasion veterans die off.

I don't think it's so much pessimism, but realism. I don't see anyone claiming 2020 will be a catastrophic hit to GA and used aircraft will be popping up in droves, but by the mid-late 20's? Sure. A large portion of aircraft owners are of the generation currently in their 60's, and as they move on their assets will impact various markets. So while we aren't claiming doom and gloom, there is a high likelihood that some very nice deals are to be had in the next decade if you have the cash to be able to take advantage of it. The possibility the FAA allowing installation of non-certified equipment further sweetens the pot, but it's a bit of a pipe dream at the moment.


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[Brad Z]

I don't think it's so much pessimism, but realism. I don't see anyone claiming 2020 will be a catastrophic hit to GA and used aircraft will be popping up in droves, but by the mid-late 20's? Sure. A large portion of aircraft owners are of the generation currently in their 60's, and as they move on their assets will impact various markets. So while we aren't claiming doom and gloom, there is a high likelihood that some very nice deals are to be had in the next decade if you have the cash to be able to take advantage of it. The possibility the FAA allowing installation of non-certified equipment further sweetens the pot, but it's a bit of a pipe dream at the moment.


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The only thing we can guarantee is that things won't be like they are now.

There were probably a few people who thought model remote controlled airplanes were a dying hobby until cheaper ready-to-fly planes came along...and then later the onslaught of quadcopter "drones".

We could be on the threshold of a major revolution in General Aviation.

Or not.

For me, I just try to be a positive ambassador for GA, and keep up my efforts to improve the GA safety record. Since I didn't buy my plane as an investment, I try not to get to wrapped up in what might happen to GA 5-10-20 years from now. Much of the infrastructure we enjoy exists to keep the high-end side of GA in business, and I don't see Gulfstreams or Citations going anywhere (aside from in the air). As for the smaller airports without kerosene burners, the best thing I can do is to not crash nearby. Often that's what leads to their closing.

 

[James331]

There is an enormous and growing market of already-built experimental aircraft, many of them built to a standard of excellence that the certified manufacturers could not afford to provide.

Our RV-8A is built better than any of our certified aircraft were. I'm in the middle of the condition inspection right now, and I am always humbled by ol' Emmit's (the builder) craftsmanship. He put more effort into making things no one will ever see than Piper put into building stuff that everyone saw.

That's not a slam on Piper -- my Warrior and Pathfinder were fine airplanes -- it's just an observation that guys building planes in their garages have the luxury of time. Time to make sure everything is just right, time that the assembly line workers simply do not have to spend.

That.

Sorry to disappoint, but this isn't going to happen. Since most of the retirees are going to hold onto the planes without flying them, they are going to dump worthless planes on the market, with some nuggets here and there, but mostly projects. Corrosion, runouts, 2020 noncompliant, ADs not addressed. Eventually all of them will be parted out.

As far as the cyclicity goes, I don't expect much of that either, because in numerical sense the collapse of GA was producing most airplanes in 2000s. If anything, we're petering out. When the Jay's wave comes, it will contain fewer old pilots than previous ones.

Simply not true, my first plane was owned by a guy who lost his medical, he kept on flying out of his grass field until he scared himself once, scare wife, plane was listed and I bought her, great aircraft, flew me across the country, onto beaches, international airports etc.

I HIGHLY doubt you're going to see planes "parted out" because of the ADSB push, especially with the dropping prices on tech, not too likely ether with a minor AD or small correctable amount of corrosion, engine run outs ain't the end of the world ether if you know where to have them rebuilt or are good at finding deals on engines.

Every few days I see a message from the skywagon club with some guy with a near runout engine asking what's the best engine upgrade since he's going to be in there anyway. Values wise some of the higher end non trainers seem to be hedging inflation, go price a PA18, C180/5, DHC2, etc. Heck if I had my AP id buy some of those PA18 projects you see for sale in some dudes garage, put them together and make a couple bucks.

 

[steingar]

What's going to happen is parts and labor are going to increase in price, and the former are going to decrease in availability. As it is an engine rebuild or even a good paint job makes almost no financial sense for any of our airplanes. This trend will get worse and worse. Yeah, lots of old unused airplanes will hit the markets. News flash, lots of old disused aircraft are on the market as we speak. And often their repairs wind up being more money than could actually be recovered from the airframe. We've seen this over and over again not his board.

 

[FormerHangie]

I wonder if some of what Jay is seeing is due to where and when he flies. I'm guessing that he's flying while most people are working, and working while most people are flying. I've also noticed that the airports in less populated areas seem to be bearing the brunt of the decline in activity we've seen.

In 2014, around 49,000 pilots earned their student certificate, and almost 17,000 got their private, so yes, there are new pilots in the pipeline all the time. The majority of student pilots are under 30, so it's not like young people aren't starting. I don't doubt that a higher percentage of those students are hoping for a career in aviation than were in years gone by, but lots of them are not expecting to fly for a living. Granted, the number of new pilots is not what it used to be, but it's not zero either.

What I'm more concerned about is whether tomorrow's pilots are going to be interested in flying last century's aircraft. Think about it, many of our training aircraft were built when today's young pilot's parents were young. That's no way to lure people to aviation.

 

[SoonerAviator]

I honestly don't think young pilots have an issue with older aircraft, but they can't afford to own either vintage. $70K for a 4-seat aircraft of any decent speed (150Kts+) is still a large chunk of change, especially for those early in their careers.

As far as parts availability, many of those aircraft that do sit derelict and aren't able to be sold with be parted out. The sources of used/reman parts should be fairly stable, new parts might be another animal.


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[MIFlyer]

You DO need to look at demographics. Besides the changes in income distribution that have been discussed. you also need to look at the fact that, behind the boomers, the Gen X'ers (myself) were born in the "birth dearth" where very few kids were born. Now that we're getting to our 40's and maybe have money to fly/buy, there are a lot fewer of us than the boomers... BUT, the folks behind us (look at 1990) are in larger numbers again. So, when those born after 1990 actually have money, (say at 40?) you could see demand start to pop up a bit. That would be around 2030.

My goal is to score a great plane in the next 2-5 years and have a lot of fun over the next 30 years with it, though I will expect continued downward price pressure from now until around 2030.

There will still be ups and downs with the economy, but I expect general downward pressure on private airplane prices until around 2030.

 

[Jay Honeck]

Great stuff, thanks for sharing.

Another thing to consider in the birth rate is precisely who has been having the babies. All over the world, almost on cue, the most successful generation of women in history have largely stopped having children.

Brits, Japanese, Chinese, Russians, French, Germans, Americans, the story is the same: Extremely low birth rates amongst the most wealthy and successful. None of them are having enough kids to even replace themselves.

It's almost as if the only folks listening to the dire warnings about overpopulation were well-educated. lol

Push this trend out a few decades, and the picture is fairly bleak. Thanks to easy and effective birth control, we are witnessing what could be called a slow-motion worldwide cultural suicide.

We had better hope that the folks who *are* having babies also produce a whole slew of successful entrepreneurs.

 

[MIFlyer]

Great stuff, thanks for sharing.

Another thing to consider in the birth rate is precisely who has been having the babies. All over the world, almost on cue, the most successful generation of women in history have largely stopped having children.

Brits, Japanese, Chinese, Russians, French, Germans, Americans, the story is the same: Extremely low birth rates amongst the most wealthy and successful. None of them are having enough kids to even replace themselves.

It's almost as if the only folks listening to the dire warnings about overpopulation were well-educated. lol

Push this trend out a few decades, and the picture is fairly bleak. Thanks to easy and effective birth control, we are witnessing what could be called a slow-motion worldwide cultural suicide.

We had better hope that the folks who *are* having babies also produce a whole slew of successful entrepreneurs.

I see you've watched Idiocracy.

 

[PPC1052]

We had better hope that the folks who *are* having babies also produce a whole slew of successful entrepreneurs.

My wife and I took our only child to the park Saturday. We saw a family speaking Arabic with their four children enjoying the swing set. Maybe they are free-market entrepreneurs.

 

[steingar]

Great stuff, thanks for sharing.

Another thing to consider in the birth rate is precisely who has been having the babies. All over the world, almost on cue, the most successful generation of women in history have largely stopped having children.

Brits, Japanese, Chinese, Russians, French, Germans, Americans, the story is the same: Extremely low birth rates amongst the most wealthy and successful. None of them are having enough kids to even replace themselves.

It's almost as if the only folks listening to the dire warnings about overpopulation were well-educated. lol

Push this trend out a few decades, and the picture is fairly bleak. Thanks to easy and effective birth control, we are witnessing what could be called a slow-motion worldwide cultural suicide.

We had better hope that the folks who *are* having babies also produce a whole slew of successful entrepreneurs.

Been the case throughout history. The poor have always had more children.

 

[bikert]

My wife and I took our only child to the park Saturday. We saw a family speaking Arabic with their four children enjoying the swing set. Maybe they are free-market entrepreneurs.

So?

 

[SoonerAviator]

So?

Before you run off to your safe space to contemplate the possible micro aggressions, I took his added detail to be referencing the fact that those of Muslim-faith are reproducing start rate far greater than any other demographic. You may now continue to assume he intended it as racist/xenophobic. ;-)


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[Jay Honeck]

Been the case throughout history. The poor have always had more children.

Not to the extent we are seeing today. We didn't get The Pill until the 1950s, and it didn't become culturally acceptable to be childless until the last ~20 years.

It's gotten to the point where it's become the exception for people my age to have grandkids, and if they do, it's one or two.

This is unprecedented in human history, as far as I've been able to glean. In a hundred years it will make a fascinating doctoral thesis for someone: "Analysis: Why the world's most successful women decided as a group to stop reproducing, and the impact this had on the 21st Century".

 

[bikert]

Before you run off to your safe space to contemplate the possible micro aggressions, I took his added detail to be referencing the fact that those of Muslim-faith are reproducing start rate far greater than any other demographic. You may now continue to assume he intended it as racist/xenophobic. ;-)

Haha!

You assume much. I was more perturbed by his far reaching conclusions from a sample of one.

Amusing retort on your part though. Well done. Most people with your apparent viewpoint don't have much of a sense of humor.

 

[denverpilot]

Before you run off to your safe space to contemplate the possible micro aggressions...

I'm so stealing that...

 

[hindsight2020]

And it's not muslims on this hemisphere, it's mexicans, get it right.

 

[Jay Honeck]

And it's not muslims on this hemisphere, it's mexicans, get it right.

I don't see this as a racial thing. Rather, it's a socioeconomic thing.

The world's most successful, educated women are not having children. This crosses national boundaries and transcends race.

 

[N801BH]

I don't see this as a racial thing. Rather, it's a socioeconomic thing.

The world's most successful, educated women are not having children. This crosses national boundaries and transcends race.

 

[Everskyward]

I don't see this as a racial thing. Rather, it's a socioeconomic thing.

The world's most successful, educated women are not having children. This crosses national boundaries and transcends race.

Men in this socioeconomic group are also having fewer children.

 

[zaitcev]

The world's most successful, educated women are not having children. This crosses national boundaries and transcends race.

That is simply not true (anymore).

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015...amily-size-grows-among-highly-educated-women/

When women were completely un-educated, they had more children and then their fertility fell as basic education became more widespread. However, as they become more educated, they can realize their destiny even better and pick it right back up. The backwards countries still have to catch up though...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life...e-children---except-in-canada/article4179768/

A big part of it, in a post-scarcity culture educated women noticed that being married makes them more successful.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015...having-more-kids-unmarried-women-not-so-much/

It's basically the switch from unplanned brood of the underclass to orderly procreation of the upper crust.

 

[N801BH]

Men in this socioeconomic group are also having fewer children.

Agreed......

I don't have kids.. And my ex and I agreed to that 35 years ago....

 

[jesse]

I'm almost never at the airport. I still average 500 hours on a slow year. I don't typically have the time to just "hang out" at the airport.

As to the number of people my age that I know that could actually afford general aviation.........Zero.......and I wouldn't exactly say that is their fault. I wouldn't guess most of these people will be able to afford it before their 50(s) if ever.

 

[steingar]

This is unprecedented in human history, as far as I've been able to glean. In a hundred years it will make a fascinating doctoral thesis for someone: "Analysis: Why the world's most successful women decided as a group to stop reproducing, and the impact this had on the 21st Century".

Rich Romans used infanticide. Nothing new under the sun at all.

 

[Jay Honeck]

Rich Romans used infanticide. Nothing new under the sun at all.

Rich Romans represented a small percentage of the whole. What's happening now is worldwide, across all cultures.

It's under the radar, for now, but it will be one of the defining events of our age.

 

[Blindrage]

Great stuff, thanks for sharing.

Another thing to consider in the birth rate is precisely who has been having the babies. All over the world, almost on cue, the most successful generation of women in history have largely stopped having children.

Brits, Japanese, Chinese, Russians, French, Germans, Americans, the story is the same: Extremely low birth rates amongst the most wealthy and successful. None of them are having enough kids to even replace themselves.

It's almost as if the only folks listening to the dire warnings about overpopulation were well-educated. lol

Push this trend out a few decades, and the picture is fairly bleak. Thanks to easy and effective birth control, we are witnessing what could be called a slow-motion worldwide cultural suicide.

We had better hope that the folks who *are* having babies also produce a whole slew of successful entrepreneurs.

This quote reminds me of the first 10 minutes of the movie Idociracy. The movie as a whole needs to be consumed while hammered to be of any enjoyment, but the first 10 minutes should be required watching for anyone that wonders why America (the world?) is declining so quickly.

In a nutshell, the under-educated buffoons start families, often by accident, in their teens, while those with goals in life that want education seem to be holding off until they are at an age when they begin to have issues even getting pregnant. What this means is the majority of new births are to disadvantaged parents that get further crushed by having to take care of larger families which in turn perpetuates the cycle.

This does not have to be the case, and some of these individuals will have the backbone to pull themselves out of the hole they began in, but the percentages are low.

The result for GA is that unless they actually manage to pull themselves through a few layers of the economic strata then learning to fly is not something that will ever even be on their radar, much less something they can actually fit in their budgets.

 

[steingar]

Rich Romans represented a small percentage of the whole. What's happening now is worldwide, across all cultures.

It's under the radar, for now, but it will be one of the defining events of our age.

People are far, far wealthier now than at any time in the history of Man. A Roman Emperor didn't have the lifestyle enjoyed by middle class Americans. Even the poorest Americans are doing far better than most people in the history of the world, who often didn't even have enough to eat.

You want to know how good we have it? Try traveling to some of the places where folks have lots of kids. Have a look at real poverty.