Covid-19 shelter-in-place rules and GA

murphey said:
I just read thru all 73 airports (and lots more private ones!) in colorado, not doing the whole country.
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Of course not. I only said that because you responded to my post about similar NOTAM in other states.

Edit: got curious. There are 5 US airports with MEDEVAC only restrictions. Glenwood is the only one outside the North Carolina Outer Banks.
 
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Yes murphey:
"I assume everyone got this email yesterday 3/28 from the FAA. After all theses years, they still haven’t learned to use the caps unlock key."

The FAA is as backward with notices as it is with aircraft certification.
 
Looks like the social distance thing is being extended to APR 30


On a diff note, does anyone know how many COVID threads a have been locked since this mayhem started? Asking for a friend
 
I think mine made about 7 pages but was off the rails after about 2.

Yeah - just saw the April 30th announcement.
 
Well, I guess I'm not going to be able to reposition the plane for annual. At least not be able to get a ride home from our neighboring state of Delaware. A stinking ten minute hop and a thirty minute ride home from my bride and now it's pretty much a no go.

From our Governor...

Marylanders may only leave their homes for essential work or urgent medical care, to get food or prescriptions or for other “absolutely necessary” reasons, Gov. Larry Hogan said Monday under a new “stay-at-home” directive to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

“This is the deadly public health crisis,” Hogan said. “We are no longer asking or suggesting that Marylanders stay home. We are directing them to do so.”

The order takes effect at 8 p.m. The governor said the ban includes restrictions on traveling outside of the state and riding public transportation.

Hogan said the additional measures are necessary given the concern that the virus could hinder the federal government’s ability to respond to the crisis due to the concentration of the workforce in the state. The governor said he is also worried about the possibility it could spread to “literally thousands” of facilities in Maryland, including hospitals, detention centers and nursing homes.

The stay-at-home directive will be enforced, the governor said. Any person who knowingly and willfully violates the order is guilty of a misdemeanor.

“Marylanders need to know that, unfortunately, we are only at the beginning of this crisis and it is going to get considerably worse before it gets better,” Hogan said. “I realize this is incredibly difficult on everyone in our state, but I want people to know that we have been through difficult challenges before and that we are going to get through this together.”

People who have traveled outside of the region should self-quarantine for 14 days, Hogan said.
 
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GMascelli said:
Well, I guess I'm not going to be able to reposition the plane for annual. At least not be able to get a ride home from or neighboring state of Delaware. A stinking ten minute hop and a thirty minute ride home from my bride and now it's pretty much a no go.

From our Governor...

Marylanders may only leave their homes for essential work or urgent medical care, to get food or prescriptions or for other “absolutely necessary” reasons, Gov. Larry Hogan said Monday under a new “stay-at-home” directive to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

“This is the deadly public health crisis,” Hogan said. “We are no longer asking or suggesting that Marylanders stay home. We are directing them to do so.”

The order takes effect at 8 p.m. The governor said the ban includes restrictions on traveling outside of the state and riding public transportation.

Hogan said the additional measures are necessary given the concern that the virus could hinder the federal government’s ability to respond to the crisis due to the concentration of the workforce in the state. The governor said he is also worried about the possibility it could spread to “literally thousands” of facilities in Maryland, including hospitals, detention centers and nursing homes.

The stay-at-home directive will be enforced, the governor said. Any person who knowingly and willfully violates the order is guilty of a misdemeanor.

“Marylanders need to know that, unfortunately, we are only at the beginning of this crisis and it is going to get considerably worse before it gets better,” Hogan said. “I realize this is incredibly difficult on everyone in our state, but I want people to know that we have been through difficult challenges before and that we are going to get through this together.”

People who have traveled outside of the region should self-quarantine for 14 days, Hogan said.
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I read the order. The order itself doesn't mandate a 14 day self-quarantine for traveling out of state, but the governor's statement recommends it.

IANAL, but I wonder just how enforceable that interstate travel part is.

Here's the order: https://governor.maryland.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Gatherings-FOURTH-AMENDED-3.30.20.pdf

And here's his statement: https://governor.maryland.gov/2020/...-issues-stay-at-home-order-effective-tonight/

Is a press release/statement legally enforceable?

If so, it'll affect a LOT of people in the DC area that are doing essential jobs and would therefore be quarantined.
 
Awww, c'mon, Gary. Be reasonable and prudent. The stay-at-home police will only target the truly stupid. Shoot, I'll fly you back and forth, we can do some 'training' and stay within the confines of essential businesses.

I tested this early today as I had to retrieve an essential person from DCA after a Red-eye. Upon checking FlightAware I found the westerly winds were kind, and I was behind the timeline. I had heard that there was an "avoid ordinary enforcement" order for most LEO's, and I found the inbound traffic to DC cruising along at an average of 85 in a 65, about 10 beyond the normal. I pushed my fine German automobile a bit beyond that, and made my pickup on time.

ALTHOUGH, coming home, feeling full of myself, I did some of the same. I missed the MSP Trooper in the stealth Explorer who I passed with about 15 mph of opening speed. BUT, he just pulled up even with me, hit the lights and siren, and gave me a stern look. I gave him an OK sign and throttled down, and we both continued on our merry way. At least, until the next exit, when he left the highway. I throttled back up, but then I got a stern look from my passenger, and I REALLY throttled back, I ain't no dummy! :D
 
Is there a centralized source of airport closure/FBO closure information? (I assume notams for airports, but will I need to call prospective FBOs beforehand? aopa have anything going?)

I was intending to collect my plane from its annual in Southern California, which completes this week.

Given that "the act of flying an aircraft right now is an ultra douche move to those who are currently living in terror" (and I'm hoping we can skip that as already-read, already-understood, and potentially-ignored-however-much-you-yell) -- are there other considerations or resources I should add to my normal preflight planning? Will I get shot out of the sky if I transit CA, AZ, ID, OR, or CO? Is there a centralized resource for "travel closures" I might check to see if I'll end up risking a contempt of cop charge?

Should I dig out my old 135 logo'ed apparel and attempt to claim im just doing a job? I hate misrepresenting myself like that, but... things are crazytowne right now, and I'm not above lying.

I am tempted to only land at class C airports to ensure some form of services remain open, and suffer the higher fuel price as hazard tax. I was going to assist a friend with a ferry flight also, which would stretch the 1600nm mission to about 4000nm in a weekend. Sadly I am not in an income bracket where passengers can social-distance inside my aircraft.

Appreciate any resources I may have overlooked. It's really hard to tell what's "authoritative" or even "somewhat complete" or, god, even "not completely fake and inflammatory" lately.
 
As to fuel availability I would think small airports might have more. Since you destination is not stated I can't help except KSJN , St. Johns Az, has low fuel prices. Why not make a list of small airports on your route, get phone numbers and fuel prices, and verify supply. Now that class C FBOs have been taken over by bizjets I wouldn't touch them.
 
Snowmass said:
A lot more Americans have died fighting for our constitutional rights which makes this country what it is than will die due to to this epidemic.
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Assuming you are referring to the revolutionary war, we are just about half of that right now. We will surpass that within two weeks. That really doesn’t count though because we didn’t have a constitution at that time. Civil war? What exactly are you referring to other than your “feelings”? Source would be nice.
 
woodchucker said:
Assuming you are referring to the revolutionary war, we are just about half of that right now. We will surpass that within two weeks. That really doesn’t count though because we didn’t have a constitution at that time. Civil war? What exactly are you referring to other than your “feelings”? Source would be nice.
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You have no idea how many will die due to this pandemic , nobody does ... it could be just a bit more than your average flu year or it could be a lot more.
Will have to wait and see if the so called “educated” guesses of people like Birx or Fauci are any better at predicting the future than, say Snowmass is on this very forum ...
 
I have a loose trip idea for the U.P. of MI in mind, 5+ days out. It would be a low impact trip, one middle aged relative to visit/assist.

Anyway, I guess I’ll check as it gets closer, the ‘shaming’ potential or airport closures.
 
Looking at the data the last several days has shown a decrease in the rate of new cases day over day. Also I bet you could correlate the days that showed a large increase occurred on days more testing was available.

Day. New. Delta
March 26. 17,200.
March 27. 18,700. 1500
March 28. 19,500. 800
March 29. 19,900. 400
March 30. 20,400 500

Ref: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
 
Warmi said:
You have no idea how many will die due to this pandemic , nobody does ... it could be just a bit more than your average flu year or it could be a lot more.
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Very true. IT doesn't help that there are so many expert estimates and current numbers out there which all seem to contradict one another. The reason for this of course is because there are many different ways to measure these things. Saying the current death toll is 0.2% is meaningless unless we also establish what those calculations are based on.

Is that 0.2% of total confirmed positive tests? Is if 0.2% of all confirmed positives plus all presumed positive? Without context, the number is meaningless.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Very true. IT doesn't help that there are so many expert estimates and current numbers out there which all seem to contradict one another. The reason for this of course is because there are many different ways to measure these things. Saying the current death toll is 0.2% is meaningless unless we also establish what those calculations are based on.

Is that 0.2% of total confirmed positive tests? Is if 0.2% of all confirmed positives plus all presumed positive? Without context, the number is meaningless.
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Just listen to CNN you know and trust them, why would you question anything they would put out. ABC, CBS and NBC are just great information nothing but the best information you can get.;)
 
Rcmutz said:
Looking at the data the last several days has shown a decrease in the rate of new cases day over day. Also I bet you could correlate the days that showed a large increase occurred on days more testing was available.

Day. New. Delta
March 26. 17,200.
March 27. 18,700. 1500
March 28. 19,500. 800
March 29. 19,900. 400
March 30. 20,400 500

Ref: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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Yep, this lower rate of spread is very much in part due to recent directives to not test anyone not requiring admittance to the hospital. Probably a good idea, to keep the hysteria down. I only know that is the case for Texas, and only because my wife is a provider tasked with implementing that rule at a local hospital. That said, she and I both have persistent chest pain and intermittent fevers, with hers requiring frequent inhaler use. No flying with friends for a couple weeks. Not letting the dang thing control our lives or make us cower in a corner though. I still climb and drop trees alone, and she continues work at the ER. CDC site seems pretty realistic, with the gist that we are all going to come in contact with the the covid sooner or later. My wife’s job just happened to pop us into the ‘sooner’ category. Enjoy the life you have while ya got it. I hear whiskey, making whoopee, tinkering with airplanes and working around the house are almost a guaranteed cure, so I’m gonna try that when not bucking down trees.
 
GrummanBear said:
Yep, this lower rate of spread is very much in part due to recent directives to not test anyone not requiring admittance to the hospital. Probably a good idea, to keep the hysteria down. I only know that is the case for Texas, and only because my wife is a provider tasked with implementing that rule at a local hospital. That said, she and I both have persistent chest pain and intermittent fevers, with hers requiring frequent inhaler use. No flying with friends for a couple weeks. Not letting the dang thing control our lives or make us cower in a corner though. I still climb and drop trees alone, and she continues work at the ER. CDC site seems pretty realistic, with the gist that we are all going to come in contact with the the covid sooner or later. My wife’s job just happened to pop us into the ‘sooner’ category. Enjoy the life you have while ya got it. I hear whiskey, making whoopee, tinkering with airplanes and working around the house are almost a guaranteed cure, so I’m gonna try that when not bucking down trees.
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Sounds like an excellent plan. Why travel if you don't have to?
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
 
GrummanBear said:
Yep, this lower rate of spread is very much in part due to recent directives to not test anyone not requiring admittance to the hospital. Probably a good idea, to keep the hysteria down.
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That's a freaking TERRIBLE idea, unless we still don't have the ability to test any more people than that (which brings up entirely different issues)!!!

The only reason we have to be locked down like we are is because of the lack of tests. We have no idea who is OK (so far), who is sick, and who has recovered, so the only way we can stop the spread is by locking everything down.

You want the economy back to work? Test EVERYONE. Keep those who test positive isolated until they're recovered. Get those who have recovered back to work ASAP... And lighten restrictions somewhat, to the point where we balance the need for a functioning economy with the level of health care services available.

You want hysteria? Wait until they tell us we need to stay locked down for three more months. Then there'll be some hysteria.

TEST. EVERYONE.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
You want hysteria? Wait until they tell us we need to stay locked down for three more months. Then there'll be some hysteria.

TEST. EVERYONE.
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Is that even possible? Are there even the resources required to test everyone? How long must we remain locked down to flatten the curve?
 
Greg Bockelman said:
Is that even possible? Are there even the resources required to test everyone? How long must we remain locked down to flatten the curve?
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No, it's not possible at the moment due to lack of the materials to generate the tests with, much less the resources to get hundreds of millions tested within a few week time-span. I seriously doubt anyone is seriously thinking of "lockdown for three more months", especially if the data sets hold true and the initial flattening continues. I honestly believe that we'll have this pretty well under control in 2-3 weeks. The flyover states will peak a couple of weeks after the coasts, and by late-April they will be working on rollout of back-to-work directives.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
That's a freaking TERRIBLE idea, unless we still don't have the ability to test any more people than that (which brings up entirely different issues)!!!

The only reason we have to be locked down like we are is because of the lack of tests. We have no idea who is OK (so far), who is sick, and who has recovered, so the only way we can stop the spread is by locking everything down.

You want the economy back to work? Test EVERYONE. Keep those who test positive isolated until they're recovered. Get those who have recovered back to work ASAP... And lighten restrictions somewhat, to the point where we balance the need for a functioning economy with the level of health care services available.

You want hysteria? Wait until they tell us we need to stay locked down for three more months. Then there'll be some hysteria.

TEST. EVERYONE.
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Amen. Just had this same conversation with my wife. There is a way that things can be opened up in a responsible fashion. Stores only admit x number of people at a time. The rest wait outside 6 feet apart. Text for an appointment from your car in the parking lot, and then invited in by the store when it is your turn. The problem is a logical approach does not fit the narrative that the mass media wants to message.
 
Rcmutz said:
Amen. Just had this same conversation with my wife. There is a way that things can be opened up in a responsible fashion. Stores only admit x number of people at a time. The rest wait outside 6 feet apart. Text for an appointment from your car in the parking lot, and then invited in by the store when it is your turn. The problem is a logical approach does not fit the narrative that the mass media wants to message.
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The problem is that we don't have enough test kits to make the logical approach happen. I'll leave it at that, lest another thread get closed.
 
Here in Norway they issued a NOTAM, the version of FAA or NASA has closed airspace for VFR flying as of a few weeks ago. They do allow for PPA but mention most will be denied, unless a good reason, and flight instruction is not seen as a reason, not just flying for fun.
They also are extending deadlines for things like medical, deadline after passing written, etc. to make up for the lost time.
 
SoonerAviator said:
No, it's not possible at the moment due to lack of the materials to generate the tests with, much less the resources to get hundreds of millions tested within a few week time-span. I seriously doubt anyone is seriously thinking of "lockdown for three more months", especially if the data sets hold true and the initial flattening continues. I honestly believe that we'll have this pretty well under control in 2-3 weeks. The flyover states will peak a couple of weeks after the coasts, and by late-April they will be working on rollout of back-to-work directives.
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Are you willing to bet on that? If so, I would like to make $100 from you.
 
schmookeeg said:
Southern California
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KSEE was basically life as usual when I was there

I didn't see any training or fight school operations but there were two others there pre-flighting this past weekend plus a dude hanging out with his buddies in a hanger

SoCal was quiet, but 122.75 was very busy all along the LaJolla coast
 
woodchucker said:
Assuming you are referring to the revolutionary war, we are just about half of that right now. We will surpass that within two weeks. That really doesn’t count though because we didn’t have a constitution at that time. Civil war? What exactly are you referring to other than your “feelings”? Source would be nice.
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No, ALL our wars because we are one of the few countries, maybe the only one, whose citizens that takes are Constitution as seriously as most of us do. The Constitution is the foundation of our country. It is the Enlightenment put into practice. The Civil War and WWII total over a million dead. I do not think this pandemic will kill a million here. The death total today is under 4000.
 
Snowmass said:
No, ALL our wars because we are one of the few countries, maybe the only one, whose citizens that takes are Constitution as seriously as most of us do. The Constitution is the foundation of our country. It is the Enlightenment put into practice. The Civil War and WWII total over a million dead. I do not think this pandemic will kill a million here. The death total today is under 4000.
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Sorry, but I am disregarding your comments on the constitution stuff, because, well, all that is pretty wack. Our constitution is not a perfect thing, and is designed to be a living document to be edited over time to reflect modern realities. It is, in fact, long overdue for a rewrite. I am not going to engage in a long-winded discussion on this with you. I have served my country, my government and my community my entire life. I have never held a job for a corporation with the exception of delivering the WSJ when I was in college and working as a ski instructor in my youth. Six years in the Navy and 18 now as a public school teacher. I don't even know how I can afford to fly, but I love it so make it happen.

Anyways, we are at 4,000 deaths. And we are currently following an exponential growth model, as is expected in a pandemic. I was playing around on Excel earlier looking to come up with an exponential formula that modeled the current daily deaths in this country. Wasn't thinking about a response to you, this was for my own curiosity, because we do see a bunch of numbers thrown about in the media. Wanted to see how the math adds up. So, I pulled some numbers from what I consider to be a reputable website, and inserted them into Excel and ran regression calculations to attempt to model approximately where we stand.

Keep in mind these are rough estimates based on death numbers up through the end of March:

Mid April:
Deaths per day: 20-30 K
Total deaths: 100-150 K

That is based on the current trend. Want to know end of April, if nothing major is done and we do not arrive at a peak?

Deaths per day: roughly 0.5-1 million
Total deaths: near 3-5 million

That is the current exponential model. I fully expect it to change over time, but that is the current trajectory. I do not think these deaths are non-C19 included. But if our health care system is overwhelmed, which it will be, there will be additional deaths due to lack of medical availability. That you can count on. I honestly hope my projections are way off. I hope this thing is kicked in the butt. Time will tell.
 
woodchucker said:
Sorry, but I am disregarding your comments on the constitution stuff, because, well, all that is pretty wack. Our constitution is not a perfect thing, and is designed to be a living document to be edited over time to reflect modern realities. It is, in fact, long overdue for a rewrite. I am not going to engage in a long-winded discussion on this with you. I have served my country, my government and my community my entire life. I have never held a job for a corporation with the exception of delivering the WSJ when I was in college and working as a ski instructor in my youth. Six years in the Navy and 18 now as a public school teacher. I don't even know how I can afford to fly, but I love it so make it happen.

Anyways, we are at 4,000 deaths. And we are currently following an exponential growth model, as is expected in a pandemic. I was playing around on Excel earlier looking to come up with an exponential formula that modeled the current daily deaths in this country. Wasn't thinking about a response to you, this was for my own curiosity, because we do see a bunch of numbers thrown about in the media. Wanted to see how the math adds up. So, I pulled some numbers from what I consider to be a reputable website, and inserted them into Excel and ran regression calculations to attempt to model approximately where we stand.

Keep in mind these are rough estimates based on death numbers up through the end of March:

Mid April:
Deaths per day: 20-30 K
Total deaths: 100-150 K

That is based on the current trend. Want to know end of April, if nothing major is done and we do not arrive at a peak?

Deaths per day: roughly 0.5-1 million
Total deaths: near 3-5 million

That is the current exponential model. I fully expect it to change over time, but that is the current trajectory. I do not think these deaths are non-C19 included. But if our health care system is overwhelmed, which it will be, there will be additional deaths due to lack of medical availability. That you can count on. I honestly hope my projections are way off. I hope this thing is kicked in the butt. Time will tell.
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You have a working knowledge of Microsoft Office, make up covid predictions, and don’t believe in the Constitution? Sound more like a journalist. ;)

Here are some predictions by Michael Levitt; he is also a school teacher (Stanford). I’m not sure about his Excel expertise, but he does have a Nobel prize and works in molecular biology and chemical physics.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coron...rlier-than-predicted-nobel-laureate-says/amp/

These are the thoughts of yet another teacher. Dr. Ioannidis teaches Biomedical Data Science at Stanford. Prob just a big knuckle dragger; everybody knows that Stanford is sub-par and scientists are boring. :rolleyes:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/eci.13222

I’m just a dummy who likes to fly.
 
woodchucker said:
Sorry, but I am disregarding your comments on the constitution stuff, because, well, all that is pretty wack. Our constitution is not a perfect thing, and is designed to be a living document to be edited over time to reflect modern realities. It is, in fact, long overdue for a rewrite. I am not going to engage in a long-winded discussion on this with you. I have served my country, my government and my community my entire life. I have never held a job for a corporation with the exception of delivering the WSJ when I was in college and working as a ski instructor in my youth. Six years in the Navy and 18 now as a public school teacher. I don't even know how I can afford to fly, but I love it so make it happen.
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Would LOVE to hear what all is long overdue for re-write.
 
Snowmass said:
No, ALL our wars because we are one of the few countries, maybe the only one, whose citizens that takes are Constitution as seriously as most of us do. The Constitution is the foundation of our country. It is the Enlightenment put into practice. The Civil War and WWII total over a million dead. I do not think this pandemic will kill a million here. The death total today is under 4000.
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Given the conditions and medical expertise of those two times past, it's not possible to correlate 1:1 on deaths. And don't look at the total deaths today, look at the recent trend.
 
Half Fast said:
If you discuss it over pistols at dawn, please post video.
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