Some mayor in Italy said they would breakup a graduation party with flamethrower equipped police
-just got off the phone with my sister who works in an ICU in RI. This is serious stuff guys.. they're low on PPE.. it's not just all media fodder. The situation is quite dire.
It’s been quite dire since it started, but people don’t understand how exponents work in populations with zero immunity.
A whole bunch still think math is just “models” like it’s four weeks ago and guesswork. It’s now real numbers and measurable.
The good news, the doubling rate has fallen a bit from 2 days to about 4.5. Problem is, people still don’t quite get that it’s a *doubling* rate.
On track for just under 200,000 confirmed and tested cases by midnight tonight... that means 400,000 by Wednesday midnight. And 800,000 by the following Monday.
Assuming the doubling rate holds at about 5 days.
Most places fell out of exponential growth around 5-8 weeks in. But doesn’t matter... the graph continues up, the distancing stays. We already have almost all the brakes on and smoking.
We shall see... I keep repeating to people bad a math that without a game changer, it’s a slowing game not a stopping game.
Aggressive isolation, herd immunity, more testing, and we slow it some more... but it takes time.
Haven’t fallen out of the straight part of the logrhythmic scale yet. Or the nearly straight up part of the linear one, however you like to graph.