COVID-19: Masks and ventilation more effective than social distancing

[Pilots Of America Management]

Folks, just a reminder that we need to be sure and keep the discussion out of the Spin Zone. A few posts that contained political content have already been deleted, but the Management Council has decided to keep the thread open, as long as we can keep the discourse civil.

 

[dmspilot]

The degree of leakiness of the masks likely has a large effect on the magnitude of the effects observed, as stated by the paper cited by the authors. Yet the authors make no attempt to vary this parameter and see what effect changing it would have on their conclusions.

They used the data for the "leaky" variant of surgical masks. Do you think using the filtration rate of non-leaky masks would weaken their conclusion? Again, I don't see how your criticism even makes sense when the study authors chose a more pessimistic filtration rate.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

They used the data for the "leaky" variant of surgical masks. Do you think using the filtration rate of non-leaky masks would weaken their conclusion? Again, I don't see how your criticism even makes sense when the study authors chose a more pessimistic filtration rate.

In brief answer to your question, no. Let's think about the effects of that, interesting point. I would assume that more leaky masks would cause the effects of ventilation to strengthen, in other words, more virions in the environment imply that ventilation is a more important thing. So using less leaky masks as an assumption would decrease the apparent effectiveness of ventilation. So in that sense, I guess I would agree with you that using less leaky masks strengthens their conclusion relative to the combination being more effective than distancing. But I still think 44% is an optimistic estimate, in the sense of more effective than masks are likely to be. I do see how you meant 'pessimistic' in a different sense than I was using its normal antonym; I didn't catch that earlier so sorry for any confusion.

But my primary criticism is that the authors did not study parameter variation of this likely important parameter at all. They just presented results for one value. This is the great strength of computer models, one can run them ad infinitum with variations. In modeling papers one normally has graphs of the effects as a function of the different parameters and maybe even statistical testing against assumed prior distributions of these parameters based on other data. If they had done so, we would understand directly the effects of leakiness on the strength of their conclusions. It is possible it is the other way around, but I don't think so.

This could be a much stronger and rather interesting study. It addresses an interesting question of the interplay of masking, distancing, and ventilation. Thanks for pointing it out in any case.

 

[denverpilot]

My guess is that people who were sick stayed home. Some had to, because they were working from home. Others knew that, if they went out, they would be shunned like Typhoid Mary. In the past, many sick people went to work anyway, myself included.

This. Hell it was the protocol around here for months when testing was unavailable. Sick, just stay home. Lots of “essential” neighbors are convinced they had it and many describe symptoms bad enough along with “wouldn’t want to do that again!” they’re probably right... but none have bothered to be tested for antibodies or anything later. It’s a don’t care to them now.

Things are open enough now most places they either caught it or they didn’t and they’re going to work anyway and have throughout.

If they’re symptomatic they stay home mow. That’s a long term plus for society and probably causes much bigger rewards than masks or anything else.

People learning to wash their hands regularly also makes a huge difference. I don’t think people who don’t do work that takes them into peoples homes really understands how nasty a large percentage of our population is inside their houses. Naaaaasty.

Ask the resident home healthcare nurse who got out of that silliness after almost 20 years of it. People are gross. LOL

The hoarders tv show was tame.

 

[Palmpilot]

The point of a mask really isn't to protect you. It won't work for that anyway. The point of a mask is to prevent you from infecting others should you be infected and asymptomatic. The mask decelerates and catches some of the aerosols coming out of your mouth. It is true, N95>surgical mask>bandana, but they all have their part. Better a bandana than nothing.

And N95s/surgical masks/bandanas don't harm the economy!

 

[denverpilot]

By the way. I asked the Mayo pulmonary desk folks out of curiosity how many visiting have had a positive Covid test come back and have to do whatever they do when that happens.

What they have to do to keep from infecting the whole freaking Gonda and Mayo buildings (a crap ton of people) is fascinating unto itself but for another time.

They’ve had two. Thousands and thousands of pulmonary patients from all over the country.

They also mentioned there hadn’t been a Mayo staff member infected on site this entire time. The handful of positive staff knew where they got exposed away from work. That’s impressive.

Kinda says some medical facilities were / are(?) doing things VERY wrong if Mayo had managed those numbers. Like incredibly wrong.

(For the record Karen’s hospital network has had a few more than Mayo but still impressively low numbers.)

Should also mention no particular specialty PPE seen here in normal non-Covid areas either. The Covid testers have a bit more on than the average staff. Hair coverings of various sorts mainly. No smocks, very few full face shields, Docs below a certain age are still handshaking even if asked if it’s ok, etc.

The usual distancing markers are in place, and the auto check in kiosks are gone away into storage somewhere. Pulmonary wipes down patient clipboards and pens. And pulmonary can’t run tests that require heavy breathing until said Covid test that only two patients have failed, is done.

Kinda interesting numbers to me anyway. I would have assumed at least a patient per month failing in pulmonary. At least. More like two or three.

But only two in a year. People really do seem to just stay home. Which is good.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

Unless you wear a mask 24/7.....they are not effective.

Ask me how I know. We were very diligent in masking up....until one of my kids brings the Rona home. Most of us are not wearing masks at home......and there's the weakness or the chink in the armor.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Folks, just a reminder that we need to be sure and keep the discussion out of the Spin Zone.

The Spin Zone is back??? Where?

 

[Matthew Rogers]

Unless you wear a mask 24/7.....they are not effective.

Ask me how I know. We were very diligent in masking up....until one of my kids brings the Rona home. Most of us are not wearing masks at home......and there's the weakness or the chink in the armor.

They are if your kids wear masks outside the house, my 4 year old does just fine. There is a flaw in your argument. Can’t blame the masks.

 

[EdFred]

Unless you wear a mask 24/7.....they are not effective.

Ask me how I know. We were very diligent in masking up....until one of my kids brings the Rona home. Most of us are not wearing masks at home......and there's the weakness or the chink in the armor.

Same with my parents. Masked up everywhere outside the house, they still ended up with it. Meanwhile, I didn't, and interacted with way more people and never got it. But masks supposedly work, except when they don't. And not wearing a mask is a guarantee you will get it, except when it's not.

And no I didn't asymptomatically transmit to parents because I (nor anyone else I came in contact with) hadn't seen them for 3 weeks prior their onset of symptoms.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

and....in the end, for us, it was much to do about nothing.

Same with my parents. Masked up everywhere outside the house, they still ended up with it. Meanwhile, I didn't, and interacted with way more people and never got it. But masks supposedly work, except when they don't. And not wearing a mask is a guarantee you will get it, except when it's not.

And no I didn't asymptomatically transmit to parents because I (nor anyone else I came in contact with) hadn't seen them for 3 weeks prior their onset of symptoms.