Coronavirus hysteria is hurting every one.

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I just canceled a trip I had scheduled for June. Not just because of the virus but to cut my discretionary spending.
 
For all I know my SO could have had it at the end of January. She displayed all the symptoms... slight fever, body aches, and shortness of breath. Her symptoms weren't really even flu like nor even cold like. It just seemed different as it was basically all in her chest. It put her down for a few days but she recovered just fine. She's a hairdresser and some of her clients had just returned from China, Italy, and Australia right after the holidays. Luckily I rarely ever get sick, so if she infected me I sure didn't feel anything.:dunno:
 
azblackbird said:
For all I know my SO could have had it at the end of January. She displayed all the symptoms... slight fever, body aches, and shortness of breath. Her symptoms weren't really even flu like nor even cold like. It just seemed different as it was basically all in her chest. It put her down for a few days but she recovered just fine. She's a hairdresser and some of her clients had just returned from China, Italy, and Australia right after the holidays. Luckily I rarely ever get sick, so if she infected me I sure didn't feel anything.:dunno:
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Yep. I had it back in January. Caught it after a trip to a Large casino, under duress, of course.

I was wheezing for a month and had no energy. The fever lasted the usual 3 1/2 days...
 
I think I have the Cordoba virus.....

1975-Cordoba.jpg
 
MooneyDriver78 said:
I just canceled a trip I had scheduled for June. Not just because of the virus but to cut my discretionary spending.
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Yaaaa! I now have the perfect excuse to NOT go to Buffalo, NY for niece & nephew graduations!!! I’m much happier sending chevks.
 
Morgan3820 said:
You sounded scared to me “(+1.25 mil dead if left unchecked)”. My apologies.
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Yep, and that's part of the problem I think. People hear someone say more than a million people could die and they say 'you're scared but you ain't scaring me.' and thus the information is disregarded or at least seems to be. But is a fact that most professionals who have knowledge of these matters will tell you that our health care system could get overwhelmed very quickly if no precautions are taken.

Italy knows this all too well. Doctors there have spent the last week in triage mode having to decide which patients are allowed in the building and given a ventilator and which are left outside to die. That's happening and could easily happen here if nothing was done to slow down the spread.

I'm not saying that because I'm scared. I'm not. I'm not saying that because I want to scare anyone else. I don't. And the reason I'm not scared is because we as a country are in fact taking action which will help slow the spread. If we weren't, I'd probably be concerned. But we are doing things. We are closing and/or postponing certain high risk activities. We collectively deploying a veritable full court press on spreading the word that everyone should keep their distance from others as much as practical and wash their hands and disinfect commonly used surfaces much more often than they otherwise typically do.

Those are good common sense measures that will have a real impact and I'm happy they are happening. It is to be expected that some portion of the population will disregard and ignore these recommendations, and in some cases anyway, go out of their way to defy them. Everyone making the recommendations understands that and expects it. Doesn't matter. They are still solid good sense measure and they will have a net positive impact. Apology accepted.
 
I was chatting with the lady in line behind me at the grocery store about an hour ago. She said she’s a critical care nurse and wasn’t scared until yesterday. She was told to expect to go onto 24 hr shifts soon. We both reassured each other we’d be OK.
 
Last week I put in for vacation for today. We are required to give 72 hours notice before taking vacation. My intent was merely an extra day off to work on projects, building jacks and jack pads to lift the Sport so I can change the shock discs. Not to mention take a local flight.

Well I accomplished that, finished the jacks and jack pads and took my local flight.

Stopped at the store to get things for dinner, produce was stocked, milk and dairy was stocked, lunch meat stocked, short comings were pasta, rice, TP, ground beef, and sanitizers. Everything else was stocked well. That was one of the smaller stores in town, don't know what Safeway, Fred Meyer or Costco store look like. Only 30,000 in Juneau, sooner or later the hoarders will give up.

By the way dinner is steak tacos, refried beans, and Mexican rice.
Edit: I did put 25 gal of 100LL for a total of 45 gal in the tanks..:)
 
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Juliet Hotel said:
Yep, and that's part of the problem I think. People hear someone say more than a million people could die and they say 'you're scared but you ain't scaring me.' and thus the information is disregarded or at least seems to be. But is a fact that most professionals who have knowledge of these matters will tell you that our health care system could get overwhelmed very quickly if no precautions are taken.

Italy knows this all too well. Doctors there have spent the last week in triage mode having to decide which patients are allowed in the building and given a ventilator and which are left outside to die. That's happening and could easily happen here if nothing was done to slow down the spread.

I'm not saying that because I'm scared. I'm not. I'm not saying that because I want to scare anyone else. I don't. And the reason I'm not scared is because we as a country are in fact taking action which will help slow the spread. If we weren't, I'd probably be concerned. But we are doing things. We are closing and/or postponing certain high risk activities. We collectively deploying a veritable full court press on spreading the word that everyone should keep their distance from others as much as practical and wash their hands and disinfect commonly used surfaces much more often than they otherwise typically do.

Those are good common sense measures that will have a real impact and I'm happy they are happening. It is to be expected that some portion of the population will disregard and ignore these recommendations, and in some cases anyway, go out of their way to defy them. Everyone making the recommendations understands that and expects it. Doesn't matter. They are still solid good sense measure and they will have a net positive impact. Apology accepted.
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The number of beds and ventilators in this country are even lower as a % of population than most countries. It's drive by cost savings and "business efficiency". In many states, a hospital needs a "certificate of need" from the state to build more beds or add certain kinds of machines. Gives opponents a chance to object when the application is filed, and gives the bureaucrats a chance to disapprove anything they deem might increase medical costs.

The economic damage by the restrictions intended to 'spread the curve' makes one wonder if we would have been better off building more beds and adding machines all along.
 
Matthew said:
I was chatting with the lady in line behind me at the grocery store about an hour ago. She said she’s a critical care nurse and wasn’t scared until yesterday. She was told to expect to go onto 24 hr shifts soon. We both reassured each other we’d be OK.
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My neighbor still swears it’s just the flu. I’m no longer going anywhere near that house.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
I'd probably be concerned. But we are doing things. We are closing and/or postponing certain high risk activities. We collectively deploying a veritable full court press on spreading the word that everyone should keep their distance from others as much as practical and wash their hands and disinfect commonly used surfaces much more often than they otherwise typically do.

Those are good common sense measures that will have a real impact and I'm happy they are happening. It is to be expected that some portion of the population will disregard and ignore these recommendations, and in some cases anyway, go out of their way to defy them. Everyone making the recommendations understands that and expects it. Doesn't matter. They are still solid good sense measure and they will have a net positive impact. Apology accepted.
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Again.. I agree that something should be done. Just like with the automobile deaths. License, registration, cops, etc. But that stops some of it. After it stops what it does, then the other 1.25 million that will die, is everyday news.

Woman: Hey, I just found out that a million people are about to die.
Man: What!!? How!??
Woman: From traffic accidents this year alone!
Man: Oh that. That happens every year. Leave me alone, I'm watching Game of Thrones.

Covid-19 will claim it's victims like everything else. We'll eventually get some treatments, vaccines, be told to wash our hands, and then like the Flu or auto accidents, it'll be everyday news when 90,000 people a year die from it.

Your quoted post above indicates good solid measures...'as much as practical' but this has gone beyond that. And maybe it should... but again, if we already KNOW that over a million people are going to die from something else, why aren't efforts being ramped up to the same degree?

No one has to agree. I really don't care. It's an opinion and data, just like yours.
 
Morgan3820 said:
BS, You still aren’t scaring me. You can be scared. I am still going to work, fly my plane, drink beer with friends. If I catch it, which I may as my wife is a floor nurse, oh well. I have been sick before. I will be sick again. This bug just isn’t that scary to me. Not like it is some hemorrhagic fever. It is the flu. Big hairy deal. But don’t let me stop y’all from being scared
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This is a rather ignorant statement.
if you want to form an understanding about COVID-19 that is actually connected to reality. Do some research, and read what virologists state. Not generic MDs.
And for god's sake do not read anything by a politician, economist, or pundit... They all try and spin the facts.

Tim
 
wsuffa said:
The economic damage by the restrictions intended to 'spread the curve' makes one wonder if we would have been better off building more beds and adding machines all along.
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Could not agree more. Earlier in this thread I said I wasn't scared, but that's not completely true. I'm not scared of dying from this as that probably won't happen. I'm not scared of causing the the death of someone I know or care about as I'm taking appropriate precautions. But I am somewhat nervous that the company I work for will still exist and therefore provide a job for me when this is all said and done.

I work for a small company. And like many small companies, we're solid financially but at the same time not wildly profitable. We sure ain't Apple with umpteen billions in cash laying around for a rainy day.

If just 5 of our 40-some employees end up sidelined for 2 weeks all at the same time, we will face significant challenges meeting our customer commitments and most of those commitments are contractually bound. It stands to reason that if such a scenario were to happen, most of our core customers would also be seeing the same sorts of numbers in their own employee pools and would therefore be understanding and willing to forgive our inability to meet our contractual agreements. But I've been around long enough to know that I shouldn't count on that. Even if they themselves experience similar rates of labor pool capacity shortages, a contract is a contract and they won't hesitate to look to larger carriers who might be able to better weather such a storm when renewal time comes around.
 
The San Francisco Bay Area (6 counties with about 7 million people) will have a shelter in place order starting at midnight. Only "essential" businesses will be open such as grocery stores, gas stations, banks, and pharmacies. Transit will still run. Restaurants and coffee shops will be take-out, if not closed. You can go outside for walks, but need to remain 6 feet away from anyone unless you are living with them. You can also go buy groceries, etc. so no need to rush to do it tonight. Maybe other metro areas will not do this. Then we can see how effective it was.
 
Ok.. so I just got this message. It's second had so take it for what it's worth, but wondered what it would mean.

A man works for a Gas Company and texts his daughter (who we know): "BUY GAS NOW"

hmmm...

Are they stopping production tonight to raise prices?
I can't imagine a shortage (barring some unknown news) with not as much traffic and the 'glut' that's supposed to be out there.

If prices do pop higher, is that a good thing or bad?
Seems when oil hit the skids it took the market down hard with it.
But, wait.. if prices are high, the consumers won't have as much in their pocket to buoy the economy moving forward?

Are we jsut screwed right now no matter what lol?
 
Skyrys62 said:
if we already KNOW that over a million people are going to die from something else, why aren't efforts being ramped up to the same degree?
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Because they can't. If we outlawed cars, a million lives a year could be saved. But that is not sustainable in our society. Cancelling some conventions and sporting events and concerts this year and postponing others for a few months is very sustainable. Even closing restaurant dining rooms temporarily is sustainable. And if doing so can reasonably be expected to spare a million people from an untimely death, it seems very reasonable to me to do so. I honestly cannot understand why anyone would disagree.
 
Skyrys62 said:
Are they stopping production tonight to raise prices?
I can't imagine a shortage (barring some unknown news) with not as much traffic and the 'glut' that's supposed to be out there.

If prices do pop higher, is that a good thing or bad?
Seems when oil hit the skids it took the market down hard with it.
But, wait.. if prices are high, the consumers won't have as much in their pocket to buoy the economy moving forward?

Are we jsut screwed right now no matter what lol?
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I'm guessing the bigger issue is going to be distribution. Given the panic buying occuring the trucking industry is being stretched to it's limits.

Granted I've been keeping all gas cans and vehicles full since last week.
 
wsuffa said:
The economic damage by the restrictions intended to 'spread the curve' makes one wonder if we would have been better off building more beds and adding machines all along.
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How many do you need on a regular basis? Hard to justify building hospitals and equipment around hypothetical worse case scenarios.
 
wsuffa said:
The number of beds and ventilators in this country are even lower as a % of population than most countries. It's drive by cost savings and "business efficiency".
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Where did you get your data? A quick search came up with something different.
960x0.jpg
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Because they can't. If we outlawed cars, a million lives a year could be saved. But that is not sustainable in our society. Cancelling some conventions and sporting events and concerts this year and postponing others for a few months is very sustainable. Even closing restaurant dining rooms temporarily is sustainable. And if doing so can reasonably be expected to spare a million people from an untimely death, it seems very reasonable to me to do so. I honestly cannot understand why anyone would disagree.
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They could save hundreds of thousands of lives by finding alternative methods to driving and/or suspending driving temporarily for a few months. Those lives are not important enough for that to be reasonable?

What makes the deaths in any other form less important?
 
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Skyrys62 said:
Ok.. so I just got this message. It's second had so take it for what it's worth, but wondered what it would mean.

A man works for a Gas Company and texts his daughter (who we know): "BUY GAS NOW"

hmmm...

Are they stopping production tonight to raise prices?
I can't imagine a shortage (barring some unknown news) with not as much traffic and the 'glut' that's supposed to be out there.

If prices do pop higher, is that a good thing or bad?
Seems when oil hit the skids it took the market down hard with it.
But, wait.. if prices are high, the consumers won't have as much in their pocket to buoy the economy moving forward?

Are we jsut screwed right now no matter what lol?
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No clue if true or not.

Refineries don’t make batches, they run or they don’t (continuous ops). If demand drops, which it may have due to remote workers, less traffic, then less gas will be needed and tanks, terminals, and pipes will be full. Only thing left to do is to shut er down. Not saying that’s what’s happening, but it the most reasonable scenario of why a “shut down” might happen.
 
Skyrys62 said:
They could save hundreds of thousands of lives by finding alternative methods to driving and/or suspending driving temporarily for a few months. Those lives are not important enough for that to be reasonable?

What makes the deaths in any other form less important?
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Oh puh-lease. Suspending driving for a few months is simply not sustainable or even feasible for a large number of people in this country. I live 30 miles from my job with exactly zero options for public transportation or carpooling. I am far from unique. You can go without seeing a basketball game or two and you'll survive just fine. That you would even suggest the two are in any way close to equal is frankly comical.
 
Something doesn’t add up to me. I’m seeing news reports that the spread of the virus is already taxing an overburdened US health care system.

So since October, we’ve got 370,000-670,000 Hospitalizations due to the flu. So many that we can’t even narrow that down to a specific number but yet an additional 3,000 + COVID-19 patients are the tipping point???? :confused:
 
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Velocity173 said:
Something doesn’t add up to me. I’m seeing news reports that the spread of the virus is already taxing an overburdened US health care system.

So since October, we’ve got 370,000-670,000 Hospitalizations due to the flu. So many that we can’t even narrow that down to a specific number but yet an additional 3,000 + COVID-19 patients are the tipping point???? :confused:
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At this point, those patients are very unevenly distributed. 1000 actually ill patients in a city like Seattle does create a strain on the local resources. ERs are good at chewing through lots of patients that are not all that ill to start with, drop 20 or 30 seriously ill patients per shift on top of that, things get difficult in a hurry. And there are only so many hospitals you can put on 'bypass' or 'redirect'.
 
Shawn said:
First hand from a client that was on the call. There is a ton back channel communications that go out and spread the word among industries before public announcements are made in scenarios like this that allow places like MGM and Wynn in Vegas to shut down ahead of time vs trapping people that are still out and away from home.

Companies like Disney do not just shut down Disneyland voluntarily...they get a heads up of what the imminent next steps will be prior to public announcements.

Yeah, that is counter to the above link but also not uncommon for an administration to put that out before plans are in place to keep panic at bay.
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Should you be discussing this on the Internet? If your client ever reads this it will probably be the last time they tell you the square root of dick... unless they asked you to leak the info.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
Should you be discussing this on the Internet? If your client ever reads this it will probably be the last time they tell you the square root of dick... unless they asked you to leak the info.
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it is not confidential information. The call was not classified...it is to disseminate information among an industry for preparation...nor is it certain. It allows industry to have contingency plans in place so once (and if) it happens they are not blindsided.

...and since originally posting this my and surrounding counties are now in a “shelter in place” order effectively midnight...so yeah, it is happening in real time.
 
Skyrys62 said:
Oh..is that all that's happening now? I missed the memo.
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So you're saying that what's happening now has an equivalent impact on society and the economy as permanently taking away all the cars? Well I guess I missed that memo.

Not much point in discussing further I guess since you're not likely to see things my way and I'm surely not likely to see them your way.
 
tspear said:
This is a rather ignorant statement.
if you want to form an understanding about COVID-19 that is actually connected to reality. Do some research, and read what virologists state. Not generic MDs.
And for god's sake do not read anything by a politician, economist, or pundit... They all try and spin the facts.

Tim
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I disagree. I have read and understand. Wife floor nurse, me chemist, I understand science. You, Go buy more TP.
 
Well, all of our offices have been shut down due to a closure order issued by several county health departments. This will probably kill our US company. We can probably ride it out for a month or so. There is a certain amount of work that people can do from home, but even projects are getting canceled and postponed.
 
Skyrys62 said:
The point is, no one seems to care if 1.25 million people die every year...as long as it's auto deaths and not covid-19.
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I agree with others that point out how stupid this comparison is. Of course everyone is concerned about the people that die every year in auto accidents.. About 37,000 of those deaths are in the US. But I feel I have a little bit of control of whether I become one of those statistics. I can drive safer, not run yellow/red lights. I can use turn signals and my mirrors. I even feel that taking the Bonanza makes me safer, as long as I follow my checklists and practice safe flying techniques.

But with this disease, how do you protect yourself? Live in a hazmat suit? Become a recluse with airlocks at the entrance to your house and sterilize everything you have Amazon or Uber Eats deliver?

Of course if you are young and invulnerable (in your mind) then you don't worry so much about this. Or anything for that matter. I just returned from an international flight. Yeah, I was worried but I took the trip any way. LIfe goes on but that doesn't mean everything will be fine as long as you stick you head in the sand.
 
MooneyDriver78 said:
I just canceled a trip I had scheduled for June. Not just because of the virus but to cut my discretionary spending.
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I'm considering doing the same for my June Costa Rica trip. But I'll watch and decide later.
 
Skyrys62 said:
They could save hundreds of thousands of lives by finding alternative methods to driving and/or suspending driving temporarily for a few months. Those lives are not important enough for that to be reasonable? What makes the deaths in any other form less important?
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With all due respect, that's a bit straw-mannish. No one has said other deaths are less important. But we have a wave inexorably moving toward is. Regardless of any other forms of death, it is prudent to exercise risk mitigation. This is what pilots are trained to do.
 
Skyrys62 said:
[...]
Woman: Hey, I just found out that a million people are about to die.
Man: What!!? How!??
Woman: From traffic accidents this year alone!
Man: Oh that. That happens every year. Leave me alone, I'm watching Game of Thrones.
[...]
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Last year 'only' 36,560 people have died in car accidents: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor..._by_year#Motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year

Still, measures are taken to further lower the fatality rates: Speed limits, driver's education, higher safety standards for new vehicles (which cost us money, btw.), not text and driving, seat belts etc...
 
write-stuff said:
With all due respect, that's a bit straw-mannish. No one has said other deaths are less important. But we have a wave inexorably moving toward is. Regardless of any other forms of death, it is prudent to exercise risk mitigation. This is what pilots are trained to do.
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No it's not. The current "crisis" is being overblown and way out of proportion. Facts are the flu has had a more dire effect, yet we didn't see the extremes happening we see now. Even the swine flu was more devastating, and yet most don't remember it because the media and social media wasn't hyping it 24/7.

As far as risk mitigation and piloting, this would be lock the plane in the hangar and don't fly because of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. o_O
 
Sac Arrow said:
Well, all of our offices have been shut down due to a closure order issued by several county health departments. This will probably kill our US company. We can probably ride it out for a month or so. There is a certain amount of work that people can do from home, but even projects are getting canceled and postponed.
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Unfortunately this seems a situation that will be replicated everywhere.
The "transactional economy" can partially shift to distributed work from home. For a while.
The "productive economy" (physical goods related) has less ability to do so.
Right now we are aggressively shedding fixed costs such as equipment leases & rentals in an effort to try to conserve enough cash to get through this.
But if it lasts for months, with the type of lockdowns going on in Europe, it's going to get very ugly. A lot of businesses risk going under if this drags out.
I've seen forecasts of up to 10 million US job losses.

Lower interest rates and increased liquidity from Central Banks isn't going to be enough to offset the effects on the economy of health department closure orders.
 
We should maybe also try to put this into perspective:

- 9/11: 2,977 victims
- Vietnam war: 58,220 American military casualties
- WW II: 407,300 American military casualties
- Dallas, TX population: ~ 1.2 mio

And now some people are seriously suggesting that we should just shrug our shoulders because of COVID-19, which has, according to our very own CDC, the potential to kill up to 1.7 mio people and to require hospitalization for at least 10 times as many, for what we are not the least prepared!? :eek::confused:
 
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