Civil Air Patrol 182 fatal, Colorado, 11/23

I'm not familiar with what they were flying. At one time they had surplus military C-172's. More like a Hawk XP but not exactly. Not a good day to be flying anything in the mountains, especially a marginally powered, fairly heavily loaded C-172. I'm probably 50 or 60 miles south of the crash site. Winds here were very gusty. Probably something like 10kts with gusts exceeding 45kts. Sad for sure.
 
Oldmanb777 said:
I'm not familiar with what they were flying. At one time they had surplus military C-172's. More like a Hawk XP but not exactly. Not a good day to be flying anything in the mountains, especially a marginally powered, fairly heavily loaded C-172. I'm probably 50 or 60 miles south of the crash site. Winds here were very gusty. Probably something like 10kts with gusts exceeding 45kts. Sad for sure.
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They were flying a 182. N434CP
 
Oldmanb777 said:
I'm not familiar with what they were flying. At one time they had surplus military C-172's. More like a Hawk XP but not exactly. Not a good day to be flying anything in the mountains, especially a marginally powered, fairly heavily loaded C-172. I'm probably 50 or 60 miles south of the crash site. Winds here were very gusty. Probably something like 10kts with gusts exceeding 45kts. Sad for sure.
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KFNL 231756Z 01006KT 10SM CLR 09/M06 A2983
 
I'm surprised by that sequence. I was getting blown around a lot on my murdercycle. I think should have been worse north of where I was at. Still with what I was seeing, a C-182 was not nearly enough performance for mountain flying on that day.
 
@murphey aren’t you with the CAP in Colorado? Prayers that you are OK (and prayers for families of those who were involved)
 
Kevin Holbrook said:
@murphey aren’t you with the CAP in Colorado? Prayers that you are OK (and prayers for families of those who were involved)
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Thank you for your concern and prayers. We've been asked not to respond for the time being, as NTSB is involved. Colorado Wing, for the foreseeable future, is shut down.
 
If you saw this track and altitude chart, what would you surmise? Public info on Flightaware.

1732515121857.png

1732515137389.png
 
Winds were probably stiffer in the mountains than reported at FNL.
 
I would surmise that we (CAP) have been asked not to comment.

As much as I'd like to because I have strong suspicions.
 
Probably more like a stand down. They may suspend all operations for a while, or more likely just the flying ops.
 
Note that the linked MSN article says the accident occurred during search and rescue operations training.
 
Mikey52 said:
Probably more like a stand down. They may suspend all operations for a while, or more likely just the flying ops.
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Yes, all flying is suspeneded at this time but....As I said, Colorado is shut down. New equipment in some of the vans in Colorado, we were scheduled to have training on the new equipment Sunday morning. Got cancelled.

Perhaps "shut down" is the wrong phrase. Nothing is happening in the foreseeable future. As it turns out, there are no Colorado squadron meetings scheduled until December, anyway.
 
murphey said:
If you saw this track and altitude chart, what would you surmise? Public info on Flightaware.

View attachment 135559

View attachment 135560
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Why I asked for opinions here. One the local TV stations had an "aviation expert" discuss these images. So-called "aviation expert" stated it was very dangerous and questionable to fly like that. Of course none of us are allowed to refute or make any comment. None of the aviation faculty at my university were asked to comment, and they're usually the first on the media list. I'd take bets that most student pilots with 10 hours could more accurately explain what is indicated. We're on fall break right now, probably no one around to answer the phones.
 
It *almost* looks like they thought they had some sort of problem and were leaving, but then decided to try to turn back?

Ingress and egress points are nearly identical - like the pilot had a definite preference.

It looks to me like they'd finished whatever mission they were doing, with the southbound turn over the ridge, and then made a pretty steep turn to try and turn back towards the roads back where they had been? Could be completely wrong...
 
marinegyaan.com

What is Contour Search Pattern as per IAMSAR ? - MarineGyaan

CONTOUR SEARCH (OS) Used around mountains and in valleys when sharp changes in elevation make other patterns not practical. Search is started from highest peak and goes from top to bottom with new search altitude for each circuit. Search altitude intervals may be 150 m to 300 m (500 ft to 1,000...
marinegyaan.com marinegyaan.com

owaysonline.com

IAMSAR Search Patterns Explained with Sketches - Oways Online

Various IAMSAR Search Patterns Explained. Expanding Square Search. Sector Search. Parallel Sweep (Track) Search. Track Line Search. Contour Search.
owaysonline.com owaysonline.com
 
murphey said:
Why I asked for opinions here. One the local TV stations had an "aviation expert" discuss these images. So-called "aviation expert" stated it was very dangerous and questionable to fly like that. Of course none of us are allowed to refute or make any comment. None of the aviation faculty at my university were asked to comment, and they're usually the first on the media list. I'd take bets that most student pilots with 10 hours could more accurately explain what is indicated. We're on fall break right now, probably no one around to answer the phones.
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So-called aviation expert was probably unfamiliar with the flightaware data presentation, and did not understand that the yellow curve is GPS-derived ground speed.
 
Hard to tell the terrain contours from the satellite image. Here is a relief map with the last section of track manually eyeballed.

Downdraft?

CAP terrain.PNG
 
murphey said:
Why I asked for opinions here. One the local TV stations had an "aviation expert" discuss these images. So-called "aviation expert" stated it was very dangerous and questionable to fly like that. Of course none of us are allowed to refute or make any comment. None of the aviation faculty at my university were asked to comment, and they're usually the first on the media list. I'd take bets that most student pilots with 10 hours could more accurately explain what is indicated. We're on fall break right now, probably no one around to answer the phones.
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Gryder?
 
Ed Haywood said:
Hard to tell the terrain contours from the satellite image. Here is a relief map with the last section of track manually eyeballed.

Downdraft?

View attachment 135572
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Here's a Flight Aware screen-cap

Screenshot 2024-11-25 113120.jpg
That steep turn just before they straighten out to the impact makes me think something had their attention and there weren't any good options.
 
Based on the fluctuations in groundspeed (assuming indicated airspeed was constant throughout each turn), the winds were about 35kts out of the west, maybe west-southwest.

The Empire AWOS at Berthoud Pass (45nm south) was reporting surface winds 28041G49.

There was a TURB LO Airmet out at the time for moderate below 180. Several PIREPS for mod and at least one severe in the DEN area within +/- 1 hour of the accident.

The winds in that area were forecast to intesify rapidly between 17z and 20z, spreading eastward from the crest 30-40 miles to the west. I would expect very strong turbulence and downdrafts coming off of the leeward side of Palisade Mountain, given its interface with Big Thompson Canyon, right about where the last moments of the flight occurred.

None of this may have anything to do with the accident, just some background on the conditions.
 
Flying Keys said:
Based on the fluctuations in groundspeed (assuming indicated airspeed was constant throughout each turn), the winds were about 35kts out of the west, maybe west-southwest.

The Empire AWOS at Berthoud Pass (45nm south) was reporting surface winds 28041G49.

There was a TURB LO Airmet out at the time for moderate below 180. Several PIREPS for mod and at least one severe in the DEN area within +/- 1 hour of the accident.

The winds in that area were forecast to intesify rapidly between 17z and 20z, spreading eastward from the crest 30-40 miles to the west. I would expect very strong turbulence and downdrafts coming off of the leeward side of Palisade Mountain, given its interface with Big Thompson Canyon, right about where the last moments of the flight occurred.

None of this may have anything to do with the accident, just some background on the conditions.
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Sounds like a terrible day to be flying a 182.
 
They were fine until that last minute turnback. If they had continued east, they would be home now.

I don't know anything about CAP. Is there an operational explanation for that turn back, or was it a spur of the moment sightseeing excursion?
 
2507m high terrain elevation on map is ~8225 ft MSL.
Likely returning back to base around 8100 ft, then the accident aircraft turns left toward the high terrain.
During the turn to northwest, ground speed decays from 85-90 kt to well below 70 kt (44-65 kt).
Earlier post suggested winds aloft may have been west ~35 kt, based on the ground speed fluctuations during search and rescue (exercise) turns around a point.
But the ground speed while ingress to the SAREX location is not far from the ground speed during egress, until that left turn.
The speeds within the SAREX turns suggest the wind aloft may have been more southwest.
Engine working okay? Winds through the pass? Rotors? There was no fire, so lots of evidence to be found on the ground.
Condolences to all affected by this tragic crash.


n434cp.jpg
 
I didn’t see it mentioned earlier in the thread, but the AvWeb article says that the copilot survived. Hope they have a full recovery and can maybe provide some info on what happened.

www.avweb.com

Pilot, Photographer Killed In CAP Crash

Co-pilot also injured in crash in northeastern Colorado.
www.avweb.com www.avweb.com
 
Next to last ping shows them at 8350, approx 400 feet above ridgeline on heading.

Last ping shows 400 foot descent in 12 seconds.

Speculation: they decided on spur of the moment to circle Palisade Mountain so the photographer could get some shots. Got caught in downdraft.
 
 
iamtheari said:
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So AOPA is jumping the gun when the NTSB has barely started the investigation. this is almost as bad as Gryder. the speaker doesn’t even have the correct airplane version.Plus the pilot was CFII, not just CFI. Also one of the most experienced mountain instructors in the state.
 
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murphey said:
So AOPA is jumping the gun when the NTSB has barely started the investigation. this is almost as bad as Gryder.
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They've been doing these Early Analysis videos for a while. This is the first one I watched since the loss of the prior presenter and I think the quality has gone down. They generally do a good job sticking to the facts, which puts them far ahead of Gryder.
 
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