I thought this was 'all about the children' and the rampant mercury poisoning the incandescents are causing.
Nobody is claiming that this is what it is about, and I made that clear the last time you made this false claim. This is primarily about reducing energy consumption, reducing its byproducts (carbon, pollutants like sulfur, nuclear waste), and reducing the expense of increased capacity while also saving consumers money.
You choose to make this "all about mercury" as needed when you think that you have an argument that sounds good on the basis of mercury, an argument which generally requires ignoring recycling of the bulbs. But the only reason we're even mentioning mercury is because CFLs have mercury in them, and so that's often used as an argument against them ("they're worse for the environment than what they're replacing!") If the goal was solely to reduce mercury, the proposed answer would probably not be a bulb that contains mercury.
Coal generation releases millions of tons of CO2, thousands of tons of sulfur dioxide (acid rain) and nitrogen oxide (smog).
Just look that math on this goverment publication (and we all know the goverment knows best):
http://www.energystar.gov/ia/partners/promotions/change_light/downloads/Fact_Sheet_Mercury.pdf
I provided a link to this page earlier in this thread and you derided me for quoting "advertising fluff-pieces from the makers of CFLs, the goverment promoters of CFLs and their paid shills in academia". I guess you're okay with these sources now.
If the CFL lasts 1000hrs...
The source you provided earlier suggests that a 30 minute duty cycle would result in 3000-5000 hr lifetime for bulbs on the market 13 years ago.
... the mercury released is back up to 4.7mg, if they last 500hrs (which the data supports) we are looking at 8.2mg, oops.
If we assume an average 4000hr lifetime for bulbs, as determined by the references you provided, then we have:
CFL: .6mg from power generation, .44mg from landfilling = 1.04mg
incandescent: 2.75mg from power generation = 2.75mg
The breakeven point would be a lifetime of 830hrs, in which case both bulbs would release about .56mg.
So based on your sources, average bulbs from 13 years ago still release less mercury than incandescents even for a duty cycle of 5 minutes, which is 1/6 of the average duty cycle.
To prove your point you needed to assume a duty rate of 5 minutes, right after claiming that the average cycle rate was 30 minutes, you had to assume the very worst bulb tested from what was available 13 years ago, and you had to assume a recycling rate of 0%.
The recycling rate right now is quite low, but as incandescent use grows availability of recycling drop-off points will grow and the recycling rate will grow with it.
-harry