Brent crude over $105/bbl

Zeldman said:
122.40 -5.58 (-4.36%)

What a difference a day makes...
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I'm not a financial expert or anything but I've noticed when a price goes way up in a short period of time it tends to come back down. I think in the long term that's what will happen as supply catches up
 
cowman said:
I'm not a financial expert or anything but I've noticed when a price goes way up in a short period of time it tends to come back down. I think in the long term that's what will happen as supply catches up
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So… your saying that when prices go up, that they then may come down. Got it :thumbsup:
 
cowman said:
I'm not a financial expert or anything but I've noticed when a price goes way up in a short period of time it tends to come back down.
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FYI: keep in mind the price that is usually shown is the oil futures price and not the oil spot price. And right now they are into April contracts. So there can be swings in price over short periods. Same on the gasoline markets which use futures, spot, and option prices.
 
cowman said:
I'm not a financial expert or anything but I've noticed when a price goes way up in a short period of time it tends to come back down. I think in the long term that's what will happen as supply catches up
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The fundamentals of the oil market haven't changed. The futures price have been bid up in the anticipation of a supply disruption, but no such disruption has happened yet, and there's no event on the immediate horizon to think they will be.
 
FormerHangie said:
The fundamentals of the oil market haven't changed. The futures price have been bid up in the anticipation of a supply disruption, but no such disruption has happened yet, and there's no event on the immediate horizon to think they will be.
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Uh, taking Russian oil offline world wide is a pretty big disruption.

However, there is extreme backwardization in the oil market which means the market believes the price will return to the mean. (April 22 Futures at $108 and April 23 Futures at $82)
 
cowtowner said:
taking Russian oil offline world wide is a pretty big disruption.
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Except its not "offline" just redirected to different customers. Its rare when the oil stops actually flowing.
 
Bell206 said:
Except its not "offline" just redirected to different customers. Its rare when the oil stops actually flowing.
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There are tankers full of Russian oil that are offering their goods at $20-30 under spot rates and so far no takers. Yes, it will eventually find it's way to China.

Today Vlad announced no exports of any commodities until the end of the year......
 
cowtowner said:
here are tankers full of Russian oil that are offering their goods at $20-30 under spot rates and so far no takers.
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But thats probably the oil that was already in transport before the US cuts. Once that oil gone tracking future shipments will be more difficult. The oil black market is huge and finding sellers has never been a problem. Even Iran still sells oil and they've been sanctioned for some time now.
 
cowman said:
I'm not a financial expert or anything but I've noticed when a price goes way up in a short period of time it tends to come back down. I think in the long term that's what will happen as supply catches up
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You were correct, oil is down quite a bit today. Glad that the situation has resolved itself. Stocks are rebounding. I am feeling better already. I wonder how far it will go down now that it has peaked?
 
Morgan3820 said:
You were correct, oil is down quite a bit today. Glad that the situation has resolved itself. Stocks are rebounding. I am feeling better already. I wonder how far it will go down now that it has peaked?
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"peaked"?

really?

well, I supposed it's good to be optimistic.
 
Easiest explanation - oil is fungible. As long as anybody buys Russian oil, the rest of the market is unaffected. China can undo US sanction Ka just by shifting to buying more from Russia.
 
Well you know this is completely unverified - fog of war and all - but what the heck I think it introduces a bit of humor into a horrid reality.

russian soldiers stuck in elevator.jpg
 
No, that other guy's not stuck. See his face?
 
Silvaire said:
Well you know this is completely unverified - fog of war and all - but what the heck I think it introduces a bit of humor into a horrid reality.

View attachment 105298
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I can't imagine where it's ever SOP to get into an elevator in a building inside the country you are actively invading. For this exact reason.
 
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