Ballmer laughs at the iPhone

[ScottM]

See, I can type one-handed under a conference table during a meeting and be nearly flawless.

TMI!!! TMI!!!

 

[flyingcheesehead]

I've tried it... And you're right, it's not a list. But still, that's less than ideal, IMO, than having a physical keyboard, which basically eliminates the need for anything like that in the first place.

It's not horrible. It's just not as good as a physical QWERTY keyboard.

So you can't make mistakes on a physical keyboard?

Frankly, I doubt my fat fingers would be much good on a physical keyboard. I don't even like chiclet keyboards that are way bigger than any you'll find on any mobile phone. That's why the iPhone keyboard works so well for me - It tolerates fat fingers.

 

[ReverendSlappy]

So you can't make mistakes on a physical keyboard?

I didn't say that... I'm just saying that the physical keyboard gives the user the tactile feedback that a soft keyboard simply can't. It's one more sensory input that helps. That's all. A soft keyboard, minus that aspect, simply doesn't compare.

Frankly, I doubt my fat fingers would be much good on a physical keyboard. I don't even like chiclet keyboards that are way bigger than any you'll find on any mobile phone. That's why the iPhone keyboard works so well for me - It tolerates fat fingers.

If it works better for you, great. For me, the physical QWERTY is so much more natural... at this point, it's second nature. You reach for a key, even if it's with your thumbs, and even if you can't see if you're touching just the one you want and no others, you can feel it. My suspicion -- and I could be wrong -- is that most people are similar.

 

[gprellwitz]

I didn't say that... I'm just saying that the physical keyboard gives the user the tactile feedback that a soft keyboard simply can't. It's one more sensory input that helps. That's all. A soft keyboard, minus that aspect, simply doesn't compare.

Leslie's LG Voyager phone from Verizon has a "vibrate" feature to provide tactile feedback when you press a soft button. Of course, it also has a had keyboard. Doesn't the iPhone provide that vibrate feature?

 

[ReverendSlappy]

Leslie's LG Voyager phone from Verizon has a "vibrate" feature to provide tactile feedback when you press a soft button. Of course, it also has a had keyboard. Doesn't the iPhone provide that vibrate feature?

Pretty sure it doesn't, though I've only used the standard iPhone features, and them only for a few minutes at a time (I'm more familiar with the Touch). 'Spose I could be wrong, and those more familiar will chime in I'm sure.

 

[ScottM]

I would be surprised if the iPhone did not have a vibrate feature. That has been pretty much standard on cellphones for a decade now.

 

[mantakos]

The iphone certainly has a vibrate feature, though I don't know if you can make it vibrate on keypresses.

I'm not sure how vibrating on keypresses helps. The "tactile feedback" I want is the feel of the shape of the keys, which helps your fingers to find the key "centers", to keep "aligned" with the keyboard. There's simply no way to do this with a touchscreen.
-harry

 

[mikea]

I present the iPhone with a keyboard:

The rumor and my long prediction is that there will be a new MacBook / Macbook Air with a touch screen and the same UI as the iPhone. It's a natural.

 

[mikea]

Wow! Thanks for the financial advice.

AAPL is 104.23 as I write this.

I'll buy 25 shares of AAPL from you on October 1, 2007 at that price. Wanna cover me? Anyone? That's a lot of money for a company in that will be in dumper by then. That's a full 3 months after the iPhone will tank.

BTW, the thread was started by the fan boys who wanted to be smug and be assured by that great technology leader, Steve Balmer, that it was all gonna be OK. The ones that think the iPhone will tank.

The people who buy the iPhone - and like I said I won't be one of them for 3 or 4 revs - will just be at the bar and in the office quietly using it and watching you put your nose up and cower and fume. Those damn fan boys will prolly keep torturing you by actually using the thing and liking it, and there will be a lot of them who are so stupid they keep buying them, but maybe if you control your anger for a short while you might be able to borrow one to try it out. You'll have to stand in line behind the cool chicks.

Ed, you had to resurrect this thread.

...and I still have the 1st gen iPhone I bought a few months after that post.

 

[ScottM]

Ed, you had to resurrect this thread.

...and I still have the 1st gen iPhone I bought a few months after that post.

But do you have the stock?

 

[mikea]

But do you have the stock?

Never bought it. The deal would have been for Ed to sell it to me. Kent is the rich guy.

 

[rpadula]

Wow, the predictions made in this thread were totally entertaining.

BTW, Steve announced today that Apple just sold their 100 millionth iPhone.

Ya suppose Ballmer is laughing today?

 

[mikea]

Wow, the predictions made in this thread were totally entertaining.

BTW, Steve announced today that Apple just sold their 100 millionth iPhone.

Ya suppose Ballmer is laughing today?

Chairs in Redmond have been running for their lives for years now.

That would have been a good Jeopardy answer: "What is a Zune?"

 

[flyingcheesehead]

Never bought it. The deal would have been for Ed to sell it to me. Kent is the rich guy.

Heck, I bought in for an average of $145 a couple years ago. Sold a few weeks ago for well over double.

It more than made up for all the money I lost on Garmin, and a slight loss on Google.

 

[Ghery]

But do you have the stock?

I do. Didn't buy it quite that long ago, but it's done quite well for me in the time I've had it. One of those stocks I wish I had more of, but it's a balanced portfolio. Some better than others, but nothing presently too far under water.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

Oh man, this is hilarious in all directions...

the iPhone will fail.

Not so much.

I have no intentions of getting one for quite a while.

The people who buy the iPhone - and like I said I won't be one of them for 3 or 4 revs

...and I still have the 1st gen iPhone I bought a few months after that post.

Maybe it will be the thing that finally puts Apple in the grave.

My advice would be to dump AAPL now

Fair enough, but the space BlackBerry users fill is where the money's at.

Hmmm, how's RIM doing these days? (Answer: Well, they ain't dead... Yet.)

Oh, and this is priceless:

I present the iPhone with a keyboard:

The rumor and my long prediction is that there will be a new MacBook / Macbook Air with a touch screen and the same UI as the iPhone. It's a natural.

Um.... Yeah, something like that.

 

[mikea]

...

Oh, and this is priceless:



Um.... Yeah, something like that.

You know damn well that they had to have tested last Macbook Air with a touch screen and His Steveness vetoed it because "Touch wants to be horizontal," which is probably right, but there's no reason they couldn't make it so that the screen works both ways. I could flip the screen on a NEC Windows 3 laptop in 1994 and Bill Gates hisself had the flippable TOUCH screen on the way-too-heavy Windows XP Tablet Edition tablets since ~2003.

My iPhone was refurb that cost $150. Rich got one, too. I'll hold out one more year for the iPhone 5 which I'll only be able to get at year end.

I'm not getting an iPad (2) and that you can bank. I'm too much of a gorilla to not break it (says the guy with the iPhone with a smashed screen.) I'd need a case with a wrist strap, which does exist for the iPad. Besides $899 is too much. I'll be building a screaming Mac for less than twice that.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

You know damn well that they had to have tested last Macbook Air with a touch screen and His Steveness vetoed it because "Touch wants to be horizontal," which is probably right, but there's no reason they couldn't make it so that the screen works both ways.

Apple has prototyped a flip-screen as early as 1992... And I would LOVE for there to be a MacBook Air/iPad combo type device that could do it. But right now, all the outer surfaces of the Air (heck most of Apple's products) are convex - It'd look like crap and be a lot more prone to breaking with the screen reversed.

But, with the Mac OS gaining more and more iOS features (have you seen the 10.7 details yet?) I think it's only a matter of time before something like that eventually happens.

I'm not getting an iPad (2) and that you can bank. I'm too much of a gorilla to not break it (says the guy with the iPhone with a smashed screen.) I'd need a case with a wrist strap, which does exist for the iPad.

You'd be surprised how durable the iPad is. Mine endured riding in the truck for several months and being dropped several times before it got its first dent. After a couple of dents I finally bought a case for it, more to make it look better, but somewhat to keep it from getting any more dents.

I finally broke an iPhone screen just prior to the new year - That's 3.5 years (2 phones) of dropping, kicking, purposely key-scratching, stuffing them in my pockets filled with keys and coins, leaving it there while I took a nap and rolled my fat ass on top of it, etc. What finally did it in was a simple drop onto a concrete floor at *just* the wrong angle. Cracked the digitizer, LCD was fine. I looked at the repair kits - I could get one for $24 but after watching the YouTube video of the replacement, I knew I'd end up with air bubbles in it if I tried it myself. Took it in to the Apple Store, and $99 and SEVEN MINUTES (!) later, it came out looking brand new. Impressive.

Besides $899 is too much. I'll be building a screaming Mac for less than twice that.

$899 is more than you can spend on an iPad... Even the most expensive model is $829. They start at $499. Or, you could get an "iPad 1" right now for as little as $349.

 

[rpadula]

My iPhone was refurb that cost $150. Rich got one, too. I'll hold out one more year for the iPhone 5 which I'll only be able to get at year end.

Thanks Mike!

You're not still running that 1st gen iPhone, are you???

 

[SkyHog]

Oh man, this is hilarious in all directions...



Not so much.















Hmmm, how's RIM doing these days? (Answer: Well, they ain't dead... Yet.)

Oh, and this is priceless:



Um.... Yeah, something like that.

My predictions still mostly ring true: The original numbers of sales of the iPhone fell much flatter than predicted. Android and iOS are still battling for first place. RIM is as good as dead, WM is also (although its making a comeback with Windows Mobile 7, but it too will fail).

You'll also note how quickly Apple had to fix some huge mistakes in the original design to keep people buying (the first gen was lacking the most basic mobile features that most dumbphones already had: MMS, Exchange Synchronization, 3G, video recording, etc). That was a dumb move that only succeeded because people were not judging the phone on anything other than what I like to call the "laid factor."

But EVERYONE I know that had the first gen iPhone was bitching about the lack of features except those that had their noses so far up Jobs bum that they could tell you what he ate yesterday.

Good job on Apple in getting a decent product out for Gen 2.

 

[SCCutler]

(Chuckle)

Great to read these historic threads;

Startling, how quickly "now" becomes "way back then."

I'm old.

 

[rpadula]

My predictions still mostly ring true: The original numbers of sales of the iPhone fell much flatter than predicted. Android and iOS are still battling for first place.

So, which would you rather have: first place market share, or profit share?

http://www.asymco.com/2011/01/31/fourth-quarter-mobile-phone-industry-overview/

 

[mikea]

My predictions still mostly ring true: The original numbers of sales of the iPhone fell much flatter than predicted. ...

Yeah.

Flat.

Short the stock.

 

[Telemakhos]

So, which would you rather have: first place market share, or profit share?

http://www.asymco.com/2011/01/31/fourth-quarter-mobile-phone-industry-overview/

I'd want the market share! Profit share is great in the short term, but eventually the novelty of the iWhateversnewest will wear off, and people will see their friends with the (higher market share) android devices that cost less than half as much, and when it comes time to get a new phone will make the obvious choice.
Apple looks great short term because of high per-unit cost compared to competitors, but the incredible price of their products is, I believe, tied to successfully branding the products as "cool." As we all know, nothing cool can stay.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

My predictions still mostly ring true: The original numbers of sales of the iPhone fell much flatter than predicted.

Huh? I don't know of anyone who predicted that the iPhone would sell as well as it did. Even Apple and the fanboys were surprised and the haters/Dvoraks of the world predicted WAY less. (It's always funny watching Dvorak lose his bets to Leo Laporte.)

 

[flav8r]

Is this an iPhone hater thread?

 

[SkyHog]

Huh? I don't know of anyone who predicted that the iPhone would sell as well as it did. Even Apple and the fanboys were surprised and the haters/Dvoraks of the world predicted WAY less. (It's always funny watching Dvorak lose his bets to Leo Laporte.)

I seem to remember a figure of 1 million in the first month thrown out or something, and then it turned out that they were including defect returns as a new sale, so the numbers were artificially inflated and STILL short of the 1 million (I can't remember if it was a month or a year).

Sure, if you take all iterations over the last 5 years, its done great. But how about for each iteration. That's how you judge other companies: RAZR was a single phone (until the RAZR 2 many years later). Same with the 5190 and 6190.

To date, I believe there has been the iPhone, iPhone2, iPhone 3G, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4, and soon the iPhone4G, right? 7 models...how many sold for each one?

 

[mantakos]

I seem to remember a figure of 1 million in the first month thrown out or something...

Apple never publicly announced any sales forecasts.

To date, I believe there has been the iPhone, iPhone2, iPhone 3G, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4, and soon the iPhone4G, right? 7 models...how many sold for each one?

There is no iphone2, the 3G followed the original iphone. Even if there was, I don't come up with 7 fingers counting off that list. But I agree that sales for the next version of the iphone that hasn't been released yet are quite low.
-harry

 

[Bob Noel]

I seem to remember a figure of 1 million in the first month thrown out or something, and then it turned out that they were including defect returns as a new sale, so the numbers were artificially inflated and STILL short of the 1 million (I can't remember if it was a month or a year).

Sure, if you take all iterations over the last 5 years, its done great. But how about for each iteration. That's how you judge other companies: RAZR was a single phone (until the RAZR 2 many years later). Same with the 5190 and 6190.

To date, I believe there has been the iPhone, iPhone2, iPhone 3G, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4, and soon the iPhone4G, right? 7 models...how many sold for each one?

When comparing car sales, do you seperate out the ones with A/C, or the ones with leather seats, or the ones with a V8 vs V6, or ...?

 

[SkyHog]

When comparing car sales, do you seperate out the ones with A/C, or the ones with leather seats, or the ones with a V8 vs V6, or ...?

No. But you do separate 2009 from 2008 from 2007, etc.

 

[Artiom]

I'd want the market share! Profit share is great in the short term, but eventually the novelty of the iWhateversnewest will wear off, and people will see their friends with the (higher market share) android devices that cost less than half as much, and when it comes time to get a new phone will make the obvious choice.

Which phone is the half price of iPhone ? As far as I know most of the high end Android phones cost $200 with two years contract - same as iPhone. And now you can get iPhone 3GS for $50 on two years contract.

 

[mikea]

Which phone is the half price of iPhone ? As far as I know most of the high end Android phones cost $200 with two years contract - same as iPhone. And now you can get iPhone 3GS for $50 on two years contract.

You can get a refurb iPhone 3GS for $0.01 with a two year contract.

 

[PittsDriver]

Is this an iPhone hater thread?

All the Apple threads here get jumped on by the iHaters. Which is sillier - the fanboys that would buy iCrap if Jobs said it was magical? Or, the iHaters that would rant about if they released the iCure for Cancer?

Too funny. All the iHaters would extend their life by a few years if they'd just drop it and get on board.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

I seem to remember a figure of 1 million in the first month thrown out or something, and then it turned out that they were including defect returns as a new sale, so the numbers were artificially inflated and STILL short of the 1 million (I can't remember if it was a month or a year).

They did sell 270,000 in the first WEEKEND. It was released on June 29, and Apple's fiscal 3rd quarter ends on June 30th - They sold 270,000 in those two days. I don't think official sales figures were ever released for a month. Analysts made guesses in a very wide range.

Sure, if you take all iterations over the last 5 years, its done great. But how about for each iteration. That's how you judge other companies: RAZR was a single phone (until the RAZR 2 many years later). Same with the 5190 and 6190.

iPhone: 6,124,000
iPhone 3G: 20,254,000
iPhone 3Gs: 33,254,000
iPhone 4 through December 2010 (1/2 year): 30,342,000

That only adds up to 89,974,000 so that means that in the first two months of this year they've sold over 10 million more.

Anyway, no matter how you slice it, the iPhone has been a smashing success.

To date, I believe there has been the iPhone, iPhone2, iPhone 3G, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4, and soon the iPhone4G, right? 7 models...

Uh, no. There was never an iPhone 2, and there is not (yet) an "iPhone 4G". There have been four models: iPhone, iPhone 3G, iPhone 3Gs, and iPhone 4. 100 million split between the four.

 

[EdFred]

All the Apple threads here get jumped on by the iHaters. Which is sillier - the fanboys that would buy iCrap if Jobs said it was magical? Or, the iHaters that would rant about if they released the iCure for Cancer?

Too funny. All the iHaters would extend their life by a few years if they'd just drop it and get on board.

Nah, it's guys like you that make me want to disassociate myself from all things Apple.

 

[PittsDriver]

Nah, it's guys like you that make me want to disassociate myself from all things Apple.

I'm just curious what you think "guys like me" are? It's good stuff and I, my family, and my companies have used it productively for years. I don't care if anyone else thinks that way or not or if your investment strategy is to short Apple for the rest of your days.

The only perhaps controversial thing I've posted about is the way iHaters come out of the woodwork here every time someone posts anything about Apple products. It kinda reminds me of a gang of preschool playground bullies.

 

[PittsDriver]

Just an FYI for no reason that I can think of....

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/mostadmired/2011/snapshots/670.html