Bahamas bound Piper missing off of coast of SC

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Possum

Pre-takeoff checklist
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Not many things that could send a twin down en-route...hope they had good survival gear, but if nothing has been detected so far, that's less likely...
 
Doesn’t sound good,hope for the best.
 
Other than a deep low pressure with convection and embedded TS formerly known as Hurricane Willa.......
 
Unit74 said:
Other than a deep low pressure with convection and embedded TS formerly known as Hurricane Willa.......
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Yea I was thinking Wx too. The Navajo is a pretty capable twin. Would be good to see the Wx overlay.
 
Katamarino said:
Not many things that could send a twin down en-route...hope they had good survival gear, but if nothing has been detected so far, that's less likely...
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That second engine isn’t a magic cure all.
 
Katamarino said:
Not many things that could send a twin down en-route...hope they had good survival gear, but if nothing has been detected so far, that's less likely...
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I'd think that there were more things that could drop a twin than a single.
 
AdamZ said:
Yea I was thinking Wx too. The Navajo is a pretty capable twin. Would be good to see the Wx overlay.
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Perhaps we will see when NTSB releases the prelim......
 
Very odd one. They apparently announced intentions to divert to CHS. Then disappeared. XPDR hit just stops. No significant altitude changes before it went offline. Thinking possible fire and they turned off the master. Who knows what happened after that. They could be anywhere. Hopefully someone (either ATC or mil radar) has a decent primary target history to track.
 
Electrical failure and no backup nav? Hypoxia?

Crap I just thought of this..... inflight fire at 22,000 over the ocean :( probably wouldn’t leave a lot of findable wreckage. Could have been all of the above too.
 
Now, on Beechtalk there is a report that they diverted due to ice and then were last observed descending at 11,000 FPM.

No idea of the accuracy or source (other than the poster claimed to know one of the pax).
 
Zeldman said:
Not at all if it is not flown correctly.
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I would think that would apply equally as much to a single. ;)
Even a lowly Cessna 150 will kill you if not flown correctly .
 
They will all kill you, with very little provocation.
I'm waiting for some facts, but, unfortunately, it wouldn't be the first plane to disappear without a trace.
 
Shepherd said:
They will all kill you, with very little provocation.
I'm waiting for some facts, but, unfortunately, it wouldn't be the first plane to disappear without a trace.
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Last year an MU2 off the east side of Eleuthera, BHS with a well respected BT member just vanished. Only thing found was a cowl plug. Sometimes we have to accept that we will never know what happens.
 
Well, to be fair, it is only so because of crashing over water. Many times we dont establish the cause of crashes over land either, yet people feel appeased by the presence of a wreckage, which I consider a distinction without difference as far as learning anything out of the damn tragedy in the first place is concerned.
 
Seen a few planes vanish without a trace just off SC, including one of our F-18s. Even with good radar plot, they found nothing.
 
Cooter said:
What year was that?
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Oh maybe 95-96. VMFA-533 (Hawk). Took off at night single ship to the Warning Area during bad wx and just disappeared. Rumors were spatial D but no way of knowing what happened. I watched the radar tapes the next day. Extreme descent rate.

They searched for days with nothing turning up. Believe like a month later they found a tiny piece of debris wash up on shore but I don’t recall if it was linked to the aircraft. Sad.
 
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Unit74 said:
That's actually pretty bawlsy to go out over deep water with a piston twin. Hell, I get hypersensitive just making the 50 miles across from Florida to Freeport.......
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I take a "depends on the_____" stance to that profile. This is precisely the mission set I would do with a piston twin. I don't find anything onerous about that ocean cut; 140nm offset from the US coast in 28C water according to the october readings. ***** cat of a crossing. The only difference is I wouldn't need pressurization for such a trip, and I actually favor NA pistons over water than turbos from a reliability POV and the risk for turbo-induced engine compartment fires taking me down into the drink with both mills actually running.

Beyond that, if one isn't willing to do that crossing in a twin, you're not willing to fly over water beyond gliding distance at all. That's not the twins fault. The range here was short enough they could make it to both sides of the trip on one engine, or even divert west and hit land. Way better outcome than a single. Somebody mentioned icing sigmets, and the radar track had this guy in the 20s. FL240 sounds kinda high for icing to be a problem, but the way up could have been a problem if that was the case. Getting iced up, or losing cabin px and going hypoxic while complacent or with faulty/inadequate life support equipment are all opportunity costs that can hit high altitude warriors especially hard. Doing it over water doesn't really add anything to the conversation other than it guarantees conjecture because we don't have a wreckage to hover over.

At the end of the day it's supposed to be fun. I certainly approach my piddly sub-O2 recreational flying with a modicum of due diligence, but at the end of the day it's a stone simple affair for me compared to work. And I like it that way. The day it starts becoming work I'll do something else. These high and cold flight profiles get real complicated real quick when things don't go exactly 100%. Nothing wrong with that if you get enjoyment out of working your @ss off on your day off. To each their own kinda thing. But there are ways to make that water crossing easier on a systems and flight profile front, by merely accepting a different opportunity cost (aka at the expense of ETE). I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater on this one (I know... too soon).
 
Fearless Tower said:
Now, on Beechtalk there is a report that they diverted due to ice and then were last observed descending at 11,000 FPM.

No idea of the accuracy or source (other than the poster claimed to know one of the pax).
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My dad was on this plane, can you please tell me where the link to that statement is. I would like to see it. Also if anyone else has any other info they would like to share. I will confirm the Coast Guard found NOTHING except an oil sheen. They never actually made the turn back towards Charleston, they only stated on their first radio transmission that their plan was to divert. Something happened before they were able to turn. We have no idea what happen and no idea how there can be no trace of anything. All ideas and all posts you have seen about it online are welcome. You can email me directly at abrookehensley9988@gmail.com.
 
Hi Amanda. Sorry for your loss.

Take most of what you read on here with a grain of salt. We are pretty good at speculating and posting unconfirmed information.
 
SkyDog58 said:
Hi Amanda. Sorry for your loss.

Take most of what you read on here with a grain of salt. We are pretty good at speculating and posting unconfirmed information.
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Thank you, I understand that completely but the Ice thing, that is the first I have heard of that so I would like to track down the information so it can be looked into. They are currently investigating any leads. As I said they have ZERO evidence and ZERO ideas of what happened and in my opinion, ZERO proof that they were even searching in the right area. I know they saw an oil sheen, but that could have been due to whatever caused the initial jerk to the left. Maybe something fell from the plane causing the sheen. As I said no information is bad information, all of it will be looked into. Thank You.
 
Do I have to be a member to view this topic? The link is not taking me to anything, just to a login page. I can view the main page with all of the forums. Where all the different topics are listed. Do you recall which topic it was under? I have never been on these forums so not sure if I am doing it right. I did create an account and waiting for it to be approved.
 
Amanda Hensley said:
Do I have to be a member to view this topic? The link is not taking me to anything, just to a login page. I can view the main page with all of the forums. Where all the different topics are listed. Do you recall which topic it was under? I have never been on these forums so not sure if I am doing it right. I did create an account and waiting for it to be approved.
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you do need to be a member at beechtalk. also, please take anything you read on these forums with a grain of salt. a whole lot of Monday morning quarterbacking going on. sorry for your loss.
 
eman1200 said:
you do need to be a member at beechtalk. also, please take anything you read on these forums with a grain of salt. a whole lot of Monday morning quarterbacking going on. sorry for your loss.
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Worst than that, some “facts” are just wrong. The post didn’t provide a reference, one of those “ I heard...”
 
Wow sad and condolences to the family. Almost seems like a hypoxia case.
 
Does anyone on here know how to get the radio transmissions from that day. Like between the plane and ATC. I know sometimes that is one public channels?
 
eman1200 said:
you do need to be a member at beechtalk. also, please take anything you read on these forums with a grain of salt. a whole lot of Monday morning quarterbacking going on. sorry for your loss.
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Unfortunately, I have noticed that there are some people on BeechTalk in particular who like to put things out like they actually have some inside info, when in reality they are completely full of crap, which is why my post contained the caveat about having no idea as to the accuracy.
 
A review of the airplane maintenance logbooks revealed that the most recent annual inspection was performed on September 5, 2018, and at that time the airframe had accrued a total of 7,718 hours. That inspection included routine maintenance, the replacement of the starter generators on both engines, replacement of the cabin oxygen bottle, and compliance with several airworthiness directive inspections, including AD 2017-02-06, which addresses a potential issue with electrical wiring arcing and fire risk.
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This is pulled from the initial report. It doesn't say how many hours the plane has flown since this maintenance occurred 9/5/18, but I wouldn't be surprised if the answer lies somewhere in there.
 
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