Bad decisions-dodging coastal thunderstorms

T

Tokirbymd

Pre-takeoff checklist
Joined
Oct 17, 2019
Messages
288
Display Name
Display name:
Tokirbymd
I debated whether or not to put this video out there. It certainly does not represent my best decision making. However I hope others can learn. Also please comment as to whether this is weather that you would voluntarily fly through or other differences in the decision making process.
 
You asked so I will opine - I fly for a living and also fly a personal a 6/260 to and from the Bahamas. Pre Covid, it was at least once a month. This type of build up is not uncommon and should be expected in the summer.

What I would have personally done differently was to stay well below the 9-10K crusing altitude that you were at. More around 5K. This would have had you more than likely flying underneath the deck but you would be able to see the convective activity before you encountered it in IMC.

Your wife even commented something to the effect of "what happens if we go lower and we are still in the clouds?" that would have been my first indication that the wife was uncomfortable.

When you push the weather and get into trouble remember who put you there.
 
nice video.....and an excellent learning example of what not to do.

The foot stomper.....going back is not always an option with afternoon build ups....also morning fog can do that too. The fog can develop in minutes and take away your clear visibility.

....and then there is the "sucker" hole. Good thing you didn't get any of those.
 
thank you. That is exactly the kind of constructive comment I was hoping for.
k9medic said:
You asked so I will opine - I fly for a living and also fly a personal a 6/260 to and from the Bahamas. Pre Covid, it was at least once a month. This type of build up is not uncommon and should be expected in the summer.

What I would have personally done differently was to stay well below the 9-10K crusing altitude that you were at. More around 5K. This would have had you more than likely flying underneath the deck but you would be able to see the convective activity before you encountered it in IMC.

Your wife even commented something to the effect of "what happens if we go lower and we are still in the clouds?" that would have been my first indication that the wife was uncomfortable.

When you push the weather and get into trouble remember who put you there.
Click to expand...
 
Great video. A nice job of putting this together and a good learning opportunity for all that watch.

What is ironic, I just did an FAA FAST webinar yesterday put on by AOPA Safety Foundation about Thunderstorm Avoidance. It discussed every point you made about ADSB NEXRAD vs what is really happening. This would be a good video to share with the AOPA Safety Foundation For educational purposes.

I am very reluctant to be in the air much past 1200-1300 on these hot humid summer days. I would not beat yourself up to much. You were using your eyeballs to try and pick around. The only thinG I might of done different would of been to asked ATC to see what they were showing to the East before committing that way. ATC seemed to possibly indicate to the west was better with his comment about approaches into Destin from the west, but hindsight is always 2020.
 
Looks like typical Florida summer weather. Seems like you did just fine to me.
 
I want to say THANK You, for posting this. As a pilot with only 140hrs and likely a few weeks from finishing my instrument, I appreciate this and picked up some points for summer flying. My wife would have also said “I’m not happy”, and my 8yr old would have been very nervous. Thanks again.
 
Very instructive. I haven't had an encounter like that, but I don't encounter weather conditions like that as often where I usually fly. I've taken trips south of the Mason-Dixon line (where I grew up) and fondly remember the summer buildups and CBs so common in the summer months. All it takes is the least amount of lift in that humid air (popup convection, small trough, etc.) to start things up. My approach is to always plan these flights in the early AM if at all possible. If you are forced into the afternoon, it's better be be under the bases that stuck on top, but the ride sucks. Sometimes, you just have to give up and RON somewhere. I remember one trip making it as far as GSO from PIE and having to call it quits on the way home. We just couldn't dodge the buildups anymore, and the ride was terrible. Early the next AM, we had severe clear back to VGC. And we got sent to the head of the line for an intersection takeoff in front of about 6 737s queued up for the morning rush. That was a fun "seeya guys" moment!

Up here in the northeast, we con't have the same level of summer popups and coverage as in Florida and the southeastern states. We specialize in lake effect clag, cutoff lows, and stationary fronts. In-flight NEXRAD is a godsend. I did a lot of IFR trips before ADS-B and XM-WX and it was much more nerve-jangling then. ATC was (and is) outstanding is keeping your out of the worst weather, but it is SO much better having your own data, even if it is 5-10 minutes stale. Just gotta remember it's a strategic, not a tactical tool.
 
I was expecting to see arms flailing and various items floating in the cabin but am glad I didn’t. You managed to have a good jolt or two, but the ride could have gotten much worse. The fact that ATC gave you “deviate as much as you need to” took a lot off of your plate. Sometimes you don’t get that especially in high volume terminal areas with multiple airports nearby.

Building CBs are never a good ride and some can get pretty nasty. I would not chose to fly through them in light GA if I think they are more than a benign summer cumulous that’s not building. As far as decision making is concerned I would offer the following approach when there is a fork in the road. It’s simple, not earth shattering: take the route you know is better, not the one you think might be OK.

Your assessment on what you could or should have done was good. You learned a good lesson on what you don’t want to do and it will help others watching it too.
 
Last edited:
When in doubt I fly behind the storms, even if widely scattered, usually a storm will leave a trail of calmer weather, as least for a little while. But I’ve seen much worse than that, but from the ground thankfully :)
When your wife says “I’m not happy”, you know you made mistake, glad it turned out well.


Tom
 
Only watched the beginning, but didn’t see any big deal. I’ll watch in entirety when I get a chance.
 
For those here that blast airline guys for “turning on the autopilot and going for a ride”, this is what we deal with virtually every leg, but often MUCH worse.
 
Oh.... and most importantly... it looks like you did a nice job!!
 
You described this as get there-itis. I'm not sure it was. I think the issue was your outs. You said you had a few outs chosen, i.e. turn around, land short, go lower, etc. but never exercised the out. As you moved on, and then the weather surrounded you, you lost your out. Next time, how do you exercise your out at the right time? A scare for sure with family on board.

Good video for me for future flights. Thanks for putting the video up, and asking for feedback.
 
Nice video. Too close to those cells on the leeward side for my comfort. I'm always amazed at how quickly those cells build.
 
Best advice I've ever had for avoiding these types of cells is get under the bases and avoid them visually. You can't avoid what you can't see, and I don't consider XM or ADS-B NEXRAD as seeing.
 
aterpster said:
Good rule in the summer. Doesn't always work in the plains states during spring. (squall lines)
Click to expand...
Agreed. Squall lines are a different animal entirely.
Honestly, when I am with my daughter, she loves flying around the build ups. If they are not too bad.
 
Tokirbymd said:
I debated whether or not to put this video out there. It certainly does not represent my best decision making. However I hope others can learn. Also please comment as to whether this is weather that you would voluntarily fly through or other differences in the decision making process.
Click to expand...

I marked your first post as Like. Thank you for sharing your in-flight experience, a valuable learning opportunity for many. Though maybe not the Internet desk chair fighter jocks. :rolleyes:

Many single engine GA pilots have a predominantly specific geographical experience. Nice seeing a real world example of the south east with a candid analysis of a specific situation was refreshing. Great tool for student pilots with the compare and contrasts of ADS-B, ATC radar, and view out the window; and using all available information to make a decision.

For me, a refreshing change from the dare devil STOL landings and skimming riverbeds and sand bars with the reality of a more practical trip.
 
Last edited:
If you're front camera were facing forward, your level of visibility would be easier to assess. Didn't look too bad to me, but I don' fly with passengers often, and when I do, I keep weather restrictions much tighter for their comfort.
 
Great video. Thx for having the courage to post this.

NOT that I'm really competent to comment but I will offer one thought.

When I fly by myself, I am more likely to push my comfort level. With wife or kids on the plane, my decision making becomes much more conservative.
 
Having investigated some bad IMC crashes that wiped out whole families, and dealt with the litigation that follows, I don't mess around with the CBs. Luckily out west I can leave early and avoid most of it. I fly for work 99% of the time so no family with me, and don't really care to take them for pleasure unless the wife demands a short burger run, which is like once a year. If she doesn't bug me to go, I just don't take her. I never really offer. And my kid is still too young to enjoy it. Aviation is my passion but I don't like forcing it on others.

Kudos for putting this out there. It's not easy to open yourself up to criticism on purpose.
 
Good video, reminds me of many summer flights across the SE United States. Flights like that are when a Stormscope/StrikeFinder are worth their weight in gold. Real time and shows where the bad stuff is.

The advice to fly below the buildups, while sound, makes for miserable flying in that part of the world. Heat, humidity, turbulence. Wife would be more than unhappy.
 
I flew down to Destin from Indiana on 8/16. It was certainly bumpy!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Tokirbymd said:
I debated whether or not to put this video out there. It certainly does not represent my best decision making. However I hope others can learn. Also please comment as to whether this is weather that you would voluntarily fly through or other differences in the decision making process.
Click to expand...
I would fly on the west side of that whole line of storms, that way the cells aren’t constantly progressing towards your path. And yeah below is better than in them, that way you get a good visual on what’s going on also the music gave me aids thanks
 
NordicDave said:
I marked your first post as Like. Thank you for sharing your in-flight experience, a valuable learning opportunity for many. Though maybe not the Internet desk chair fighter jocks. :rolleyes:

Many single engine GA pilots have a predominantly specific geographical experience. Nice seeing a real world example of the south east with a candid analysis of a specific situation was refreshing. Great tool for student pilots with the compare and contrasts of ADS-B, ATC radar, and view out the window; and using all available information to make a decision.

For me, a refreshing change from the dare devil STOL landings and skimming riverbeds and sand bars with the reality of a more practical trip.
Click to expand...
thank you, that was my point in posting. I haven't seen a lot of comparisons between out the window vs radar views in my training and research. Some of the early trolls on FB derided me but I don't think they understand southeast/gulf weather and how fast it builds from scattered/isolated to bad. Not the same as midwest or northeast storm systems
 
DoubleD said:
Good video, reminds me of many summer flights across the SE United States. Flights like that are when a Stormscope/StrikeFinder are worth their weight in gold. Real time and shows where the bad stuff is.

The advice to fly below the buildups, while sound, makes for miserable flying in that part of the world. Heat, humidity, turbulence. Wife would be more than unhappy.
Click to expand...
Yes, tradeoff for sure. Better smooth above the bumps but makes it harder to see the rainshowers unless you can get high enough to see buildups breaking through the upper lifting layer
 
Thanks for the video. Its good of you to put it out there for us all to learn from your mistakes. That makes us all safer.
 
Morgan3820 said:
My rule is be where you want to be by 1200, if at all possible.
Click to expand...

we fly to Orlando to see our son, and I always leave around 830ish so that I can be on the ground by 10:30-11am. You can literally watch the cumulus build ups when noon rolls around, especially in the summer.
 
Cluemeister said:
You described this as get there-itis. I'm not sure it was. I think the issue was your outs. You said you had a few outs chosen, i.e. turn around, land short, go lower, etc. but never exercised the out. As you moved on, and then the weather surrounded you, you lost your out. Next time, how do you exercise your out at the right time? A scare for sure with family on board.

Good video for me for future flights. Thanks for putting the video up, and asking for feedback.
Click to expand...
I don't have the experience that some of you clearly do, but I have to agree with this comment. There was a time or two when I saw the ground in the video, and I would have availed myself of a nearby airport at that time. And people have different levels of risk tolerance (and of course experience and knowledge), but in a SE piston I would have taken one look at that radar picture and said, "we be drivin'!"

OP: Thanks for sharing.
 
Lots of cumulus clouds, but not sure I see any truly mature thunderstorms. Still not a good ride, and still a good job by the toki.
 
Too much use of adsb for tactical, you should have headed west around the back and safer due electronic lag and you could have stayed higher for longer when controller asked you to descend. You felt extra pressure with your family aboard. Thanks for opportunity to comment.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top