CC268
Final Approach
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CC268
I think there’s some confusion about whether folks are talking degrees of heading or degrees of bank today.
Yea I am sure. Assemble PoA NTSB team! I will start the meeting minutes.
We get minutes? I was hoping for a few hours back.
Using a fixed number like that is dangerous. It doesn't take into account distance from the runway, nor the difference between climb angle and glide angle. And wind, density altitude, and length of the runway are factors.Engine failure below 500 agl, land straight ahead, with a slight turn left or right to avoid obstacles....
This sound very logical by what is in the video. As somebody pointed out there are mountains about 2 miles straight off of the runway. Seems like they realized they were not going to clear those mountains, so they need to either turn back or get down. With the loss of altitude in the turn, they could not get back into the pattern or back to the runway, so they aimed for the road.I think they were trying to make the road not because of a power loss, but out of concern for the performance they were seeing. I can easily see one of he two pilots realizing pretty quick after liftoff that this was a poor idea and quickly deciding that the road was their best option.
Wow watching that video from the traffic cam suggests that regardless of the weight / CG I think that plane was flying. It had already reached an altitude of probably a couple hundred feet at what was likely an anemic straight ahead climb... the turn looks to be pretty steep considering the likely AOA and airspeed when it was initiated.
If no obstructions were straight ahead (tall towers / mountains) I think that plane would have made it to Vegas if the turn had been delayed and was made less aggressively.
The video IMHO Suggests the performance was probably enough if it had been flown more delicately.
It wouldn't be necessary to replicate the loading. It could be done by calculating the climb angle from the video, as discussed earlier in the thread, and adjusting the power and air speed to achieve the same angle. That way, the test wouldn't have to be carried to the point of destruction. Even better (less expensive) would be to use the climb angle to plot the altitude on a topographical chart to see where it intersects terrain.We should replicate the loading, takeoff and see if we make it out alive if we fly straight ahead. Should be good.
It wouldn't be necessary to replicate the loading. It could be done by calculating the climb angle from the video, as discussed earlier in the thread, and adjusting the power and air speed to achieve the same angle. That way, the test wouldn't have to be carried to the point of destruction. Even better (less expensive) would be to use the climb angle to plot the altitude on a topographical chart to see where it intersects terrain.
I'll have those done within one week of receiving the signed contract from the NTSB for my services.Thanks. Documented in the Action Item List. “Palmpilot to provide detailed calculations”
When can you have these calculations done?
CC268
PoA NTSB Manager
I'll have those done within one week of the date that I am put on the NTSB payroll.
Using a fixed number like that is dangerous. It doesn't take into account distance from the runway, nor the difference between climb angle and glide angle. And wind, density altitude, and length of the runway are factors.
Actually, I revised my terms. (See above.)Thanks. Will send charge number over soon. Waiting for government to send money.
CC268
PoA NTSB Manager
Actually, I revised my terms. (See above.)
On an 8,000 foot runway, if by halfway you are not significantly above the runway, it is probably time to give it up and put it back down on the runway.
What would your sight picture be on a dark night once you clear the road? Are there enough lights to provide a good visual reference? I'm wondering if spatial disorientation could have contributed?
No problem. And just to show you what a great and public-spirited guy I am, I hereby waive any financial interest or other rights I may have had in my contribution to creating the algorithm.You contribution will no longer be needed. Thanks.
Action Item List updated. Denverpilot will provide said calculations.
Yes. PLENTY of lights. Grey hawk, DC Ranch, etc...
Those lights are above the plane?
On an 8000’ runway if you’re only 100’ AGL by a quarter mile off the end of it, you were in serious trouble long before you got there.
What are we talking about here in rough numbers you can actually read on a VSI? Don’t need detailed ones. 100 ft/min?
Even if he had slowed to Vx fearing the fence and the berm, to get down from that to the stall in a 20 degree bank doesn’t mathematically work. His stall indicator was on as soon as he started the turn.
You’ve got no choice but to level it out and wait in that case.
Hi Ed,
Thanks for your interest in my comment. Could you clarify what you mean?
Thanks,
CC268
PoA NTSB Manager
Believe it or not, its a star. I looked at the street view from the exact same location, and there is nothing anywhere near that flashing light.I think disbelief there is a problem factor was probably huge here. The plane probably got into ground effect, flew for a while eating up much of the runway, then slowly climbed. In that video it looked like it was at least 100 feet up, maybe 200 feet. If the engine didn't die he should have been able to nurse it around, very shallow turns and landed.
There is a flashing light that seems stationary in the video, is that an obstacle or was it another aircraft.
See my edit. I know whenever I take off in my Comanche, even on a shallow climb out, there are 0 visual forward references. There may be lights on the ground ahead of me, but I can't see any of them.
My money on this crash is fixated student pilot and distracted instructor and nothing to do with loading or mechanical trouble. I've done 4000ft DA takeoff at full gross (possibly over if the pax lied about their weight) with aft CG (not out of CG, but 200lbs in the baggage area and two full size adults in the back seat) and was still getting 1000fpm with 18 degrees of flaps.
I think disbelief there is a problem factor was probably huge here. The plane probably got into ground effect, flew for a while eating up much of the runway, then slowly climbed. In that video it looked like it was at least 100 feet up, maybe 200 feet. If the engine didn't die he should have been able to nurse it around, very shallow turns and landed.
Why the sustained, descending left turn though? Was the instructor that distracted that he didn't notice and say "Hey-- level this thing out"?
took em 1.5 miles to still be in the field of view of a traffic cam on the road north the airport? come on now. this wasnt a power loss, they tried to whip that thing around because they panicked about obstacle clearance going forward and porked the turn while heavy and aft cg. what should have occured is you disregard ground track and keep working the climb. bomber pattern the hell out that turn over cultural lighting until you can put it back on the ground and apologize for the hubris of taking off that heavy. in reality, the answer should have been you realize by the 4k marker on the runway that you had no business taking off and abort the run. but these guys were going to vegas come hell or high water. tragic outcome.
He had to turn left to avoid hitting the McDowell mountains or Pinnacle Peak which he wouldn’t have been able to see well since they were departing at night.Damn, why was he turning? Too bad there isn't sound too.
When your climb performance is degraded because you are over gross and you know the mountains are there, but can’t see them as well because you are departing at night, you better believe they are a factor at least from a psychological standpoint to someone who isn’t from the area.Okay guys...let’s make something clear. The McDowell mountains were not a factor in this crash lol. Not sure why everyone things the mountains are 100 feet of the end of the runway. They were not trying to evade the mountains...You have plenty of time to make a slight turn to the left to avoid the McDowells.
Otherwise I agree with most of what has been said.
Thanks,
CC268 PoA NTSB Manager
When your climb performance is degraded because you are over gross and you know the mountains are there, but can’t see them as well because you are departing at night, you better believe they are a factor at least from a psychological standpoint to someone who isn’t from the area.
Doesn’t mean the mountains caused the crash any more than the Class B airspace and the Superstition Mountains caused the Aero Commander crash a few years ago.
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We should replicate the loading, takeoff and see if we make it out alive if we fly straight ahead. Should be good.
For some unknown reason the plane was in a turn, and tried to shorten the turn. The wing on the outside of the turn speeds up and produces more lift than the inside wing, and the airplane starts to increase its bank. So the ailerons were probably used to try to reduce the bank angle. The down aileron on the inside of the turn helps drag that wing back, slowing it up and decreasing its lift, which the pilot mistakenly adds more aileron application. This further causes the airplane to roll. The roll may be so fast that it is possible the bank will be vertical or past vertical before it can be stopped. All this happened in less time it took you to read this paragraph.
Don't get me wrong... the above post you quoted does not remove my prior opinion that weight and C/G played a huge role in this accident. Whether technically over gross or aft C/G we may never know and honestly it doesn't matter. Even within max gross and within C/G the fight becomes more challenging and added to the sum total of issues to overcome. The CFI having to look over to the far left at the ASI makes me think of dropping the pen in the floor during IFR training.
In the end this accident still likely lies on the sum of multiple factors rather than one item. It’s unfortunate. The video proves that plane got well out of ground effect and was flying before things went bad in a hurry.
You hit reply faster! My thoughts exactlyMy opinion after watching the video. The guy was hotdogging it by trying to make an immediate turn to head to Vegas right after departing the runway and wasn't watching his airspeed. Naturally with the weight he was carrying and by not having enough airspeed to carry him through the turn, he fell out of the sky like a ton of bricks. How many times have we seen this happen? Another mile to gain airspeed and altitude and the dude would have easily made it with plenty of room to spare.
My money on this crash is fixated student pilot and distracted instructor and nothing to do with loading or mechanical trouble. I've done 4000ft DA takeoff at full gross (possibly over if the pax lied about their weight) with aft CG (not out of CG, but 200lbs in the baggage area and two full size adults in the back seat) and was still getting 1000fpm with 18 degrees of flaps.