Whether one uses 1.5°C or 2.5°C, it will make a whole 5 degree difference in 5000 feet. The OAT gives one the rest. And if he uses lapse rates, the temp/dewpoint spread gives an idea of the moisture levels. At least he is thinking. That's more than we can say about people who encounter carb ice, unexpectedly, because they can't be bothered to check the metar for temp and dewpoint and a carb ice chart applicable to their airplane so that it isn't a surprise and they'll know exactly what it is when it shows up.
I encountered a lot of CPL/IFR students who still didn't understand the lapse rate thing. It's one of those things that's crucial. One should be checking the upper winds and temps forecast, looking at the temps for the various levels (6000', 9000', 12000', 18000', etc) and figuring the temp drop per thousand in those numbers. If it's more than 2°C, and the temp and dewpoint aren't far apart, watch out. Thunderstorms are a possibility, and thunderstorms eat airplanes. If the lapse rate is much more than 2°C, better stay on the ground unless the air is really dry. A factor of thunderstorm physics. Another factor is orographic or frontal lift.
I could never understand why pilots wouldn't be interested in the mechanics of such stuff. Chinooks, too. Fascinating. And morning fog development. Temp, dewpoint and surface moisture. Don't take off and get caught above a sudden ground fog.
I used to do an off the cuff lapse rate calc to figure where icing levels start, but after watching, listening to
@scottd Scott Dennstaedt I stopped doing that rather quickly. I took the poster's statement at face value, he is thinking, but he needs to expand his knowledge if he is playing near ice.
Your comment "it will make a whole 5 degree difference in 5000 feet" is accurate for your example, but I have two points, 5 degrees is huge for icing, is it 5 degrees colder or warmer than you expected at 5,000 feet? The second point is the difference could be a whole lot more than 5 degrees. On top of that, using OAT is too late, especially if you are distracted. It's like using a depth finder in a boat to avoid submerged rocks. It's certainly useful to help verify what you think will happen, but using OAT to verify your standard lapse rate calc from ground temps is just an all around bad idea.
On top of that, there are lots of very useful ice products out that give you a good wide area idea of where ice is. They are easy to use and give you a good idea of if you will run into problems. I start with airmets, then move to charts
On my last trip with and through ice the forecasts were pretty good.
The ice was contained in a layer I could fly over for most of my trip, with a quick descent through it to get to what were forecast and actually were vmc conditions. I used a combination of icing forecast product, ceiling products, forecasts, then I went along the route and looked at skew-t graphs, which backed up what I had seen in the forecasts. Next I looked for pireps, which pretty much were in line with what the forecast was. I took off from a VMC conditions, climbed to 7k, it was a bumpy climb (another concern with ice) I climbed to 9k to escape the bumps, which was fine for the 300nm leg. Along the way I asked controllers for ceiling and ice reports, which they were all to glad to give, one guy asked an airliner that had climbed about 10 miles ahead.
For the descent the controller asked me if I wanted to hang in the clouds, or wait. I told him I wanted the least amount of time possible in the clouds, but I had a passenger with sensitive ears, so I would be descending at 500 fpm. I asked him if there were any pireps, he told me a bonanza had just been in the clouds and reported trace to light. So my plan was still good. He cleared me to descend, PD, to below the clouds. I started down, turned on the TKS (fiki plane). I got in the clouds, the ice tabs on the wing were immediately iced, but all the tks covered surfaces stayed clean through the descent. I popped out a 4,400 feet and took a look at the wing tip, which is out of the tks stream. There was about a half inch of ice there. I called up the controller and told him it was moderate ice, definitely not trace or light.
Honestly I don't understand why pilots aren't more curious about this stuff either. I'm flying an ice capable airplane, but the info on how to use weather products is hard to come by. Scott has an excellent resource that accurately lays out the conditions for my entire route. Plus he explains how to use various tools in this talks and videos. On top of that he will do briefings with you on an instructional basis. His product seems to be successful, but there are hundreds of thousands of pilots in the US who would benefit from this stuff. I don't understand why his product isn't wildly successful. Pilots seem more interested in rules of thumb or quick review of how to do something rather than spending the necessary time to learn how to do it correctly. I still have a lot to learn, but I know rules of thumb can get me into bad situations. I don't use them any more.
It’s worked to give me a ball park figure for over 45 years now, hasn’t bitten me yet. I’ve got 2 digital and one analog OAT readout in my plane, and of course, I use them inflight for the altitude I’m flying at.
It’s actually a great estimate, but I’d never bet my life on it.
I don’t fly with a meteorology textbook in my lap, nor am I a proponent of the (apparently quite prevalent) POA school of “measure it with a micrometer, mark it with a grease pencil, cut it with an axe.”
I hope it continues to work for you.