Adding flaps during the descent

dmccormack said:
I think you mean avoid thunderstorms, no matter what gadgets are on board. :yesnod:
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That's the goal for sure! :yes:

Although if you look at a few of my radar tracks, it felt more like a tango than anything! I submit the attached flight profile as an example. It's old enough that they've removed the weather, but picture a bunch of storm cells placed strategically to require the bends made. On-board radar, XM, and ATC helped me pick my way through that one.
 

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Yes, WERE, that's exactly the limitation (of XM) that I had in mind. And the SS won't help you avoid the stuff that's not developed enough to generate lightning, but still has enough turbulence in it to make the ride at least exciting, or worse.

I really miss the Cardinal with its Stormscope and wish I could have bought it, and then put in a 430W or 530W. But even so I have enough respect for weather that I'm sure I'd still stay on the ground when convective wx is forecast, even when I'm rated. The club planes I fly now have NO weather and I'm planning on buying a 496 or similar handheld with XM for myself, but I know that when in doubt, don't launch is the best policy.
 
azure said:
Yes, WERE, that's exactly the limitation (of XM) that I had in mind. And the SS won't help you avoid the stuff that's not developed enough to generate lightning, but still has enough turbulence in it to make the ride at least exciting, or worse.
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Well, there's two things here. First one is that XM will only ever tell you where something was, not where it is. However that information is generally enough for givign a wide berth. For example, I was once flying to Tennessee and back. Right in the middle of our path was a really big thunderstorm. With XM we were able to see it on takeoff, and divert really early to get around it.

Even on-board radar has limitations for developing thunderstorms. Remember that radar is picking up the liquid. Well, a developing thunderstorm can have the major updrafts and bumps without the liquid (it hasn't gotten up there yet to be picked up by radar).

I flew into a developing thunderstorm a few month ago. The area was littered with little cells, and I knew that getting in there would be interesting. I had the radar and XM on, which didn't show anything but light stuff in front of me. Well, as I was descending I then saw something popping up on the radar directly ahead of me (really close), and then ATC came on "Aztec 27Y, heavy precipitation, 12 o'clock, 2 miles, 3 miles long." Well, at that point I was going to be there in under a minute, and be through it in another minute or two, so I just blasted through. When I hit the updraft, I pulled the engines about back to idle, was practically in the yellow, and still getting 1500 fpm CLIMB rate. We were out of it pretty quickly, but it was bumpy.

Note the moral of the story, though, which was that I knew going in it would be interesting getting in there. I believe Kent has a similar story in the 182, except he turned around to get out of it.
 
azure said:
I really miss the Cardinal with its Stormscope and wish I could have bought it, and then put in a 430W or 530W. But even so I have enough respect for weather that I'm sure I'd still stay on the ground when convective wx is forecast, even when I'm rated. The club planes I fly now have NO weather and I'm planning on buying a 496 or similar handheld with XM for myself, but I know that when in doubt, don't launch is the best policy.
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It's good to be conservative, but if you stay on the ground when convective activity is forecast you might fly 3 days a summer.

XM is delayed, but thunderstorms don't move at 100 knots, so a 20 mile buffer is adequate around your garden variety CB, 40 around those big plains boomers.

Here in PA you can count on towering CU/ baby CB every warm summer day over the ridges in the middle of the state (Ted lives on the eastern bend, I'm just west of the last ridge).

In my office in WV I can watch CB build to the east while it's clear west.

So you learn the time of day to fly and avoid the worst. My playbook puts early Am departures high on the list -- less heat, less energy, less stuff.

But don't let forecasts determine your fate -- generally you'll be warned of doom and gloom. A few times you'll launch anyway and find it ain't so bad. Then, you'll learn to analyze the forecast and compare it to what you see out the windscreen and on the gadgets.
 
I should have said "stay on the ground or stay VFR" when there's stuff building everywhere. I agree, not launching at all might be too conservative.

Then again, in some cases, maybe not.
 
azure said:
I should have said "stay on the ground or stay VFR" when there's stuff building everywhere. I agree, not launching at all might be too conservative.

Then again, in some cases, maybe not.
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Knowing the difference comes with good judgment, which is developed by surviving bad judgment. :D
 
dmccormack said:
Knowing the difference comes with good judgment, which is developed by surviving bad judgment. :D
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Ain't that the truth... Sometimes you get lucky and can learn from someone else who survived bad judgement, but more often than not you have to do it yourself.
 
azure said:
I should have said "stay on the ground or stay VFR" when there's stuff building everywhere. I agree, not launching at all might be too conservative.

Then again, in some cases, maybe not.
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Something a lot of pilot don't seem to understand is that baring severe weather at or bearing down on your departure airport the decision to stay on the ground or go fly is more about convenience than safety. By that I mean you can usually depart safely when the weather is far from ideal but you may encounter something along the way that results in the inconvenience of having to change plans enroute, said change potentially including parking the plane at the nearest airport, turning around, or making an end run that takes you a long way from a direct route. The key to safety is (per the trite old phrase) keeping an "out" or two ready all the time, typically from the list above and monitoring the conditions ahead well enough that you don't blunder into something that takes away all your "outs". Now if you're completely unwilling to risk any inconvenience then it's true that your only option is to avoid starting (perhaps even planning) a flight when there's some probability of weather you consider unflyable enroute, but usually the pre-takeoff decision is a bit less conservative allowing for a departure when the probability of such weather is significant but not certain. Then you simply must weight the chances of unflyable weather against the consequences (inconvenience) of that.
 
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gismo said:
Something a lot of pilot don't seem to understand is that baring severe weather at or bearing down on your departure airport the decision to stay on the ground or go fly is more about convenience than safety. By that I mean you can usually depart safely when the weather is far from ideal but you may encounter something along the way that results in the inconvenience of having to change plans enroute
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Very true. This year's trip to Gaston's was a good example of that. A straight line would've taken us through a bunch of nasty storms, so instead we headed south to Knoxville, then over to Gaston's. Added about 75 or 100 nm (not that bad when you consider the straight line distance is around 750-800), but kept us safe.

Sometimes your origin or destination has a thunderstorm directly over it, but fortunately such things are transient and a little delay on one end or the other usually accounts for that just fine.
 
In the late spring though early fall I find that an hour either way is enough to adapt to whatever weather bogeys are enroute.

Late fall and early spring are more likely to cause day-long grounding as I don't fly FIKI airplanes, I don't like sliding on ice, and the Chief doesn't do too well in winds over 12 knots (it's a motorized kite).
 
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