Adam officially gone

[FlyfastB58]

I think Piper has the experience from the Cheyenne line to get the job done with the Jet but I agree that the market is too crowded ... I'd bail.

The Super Cub is my pick for a light sport. I agree.

The Adam ...I would not have taken the chance on the twin boom tail.

The Mustang seems nice as does the Phenom 100.

 

[tonycondon]

are any of the engineers from the Cheyenne era still employed at Piper? or alive? that was a loooong time ago

 

[SkyHog]

I hope Piper won't be dead anytime soon.

-Felix

Me too....I don't think I could handle his death right now. He's my best friend in the whole world.

 

[sba55]

Me too....I don't think I could handle his death right now. He's my best friend in the whole world.

Glad to hear it! I was just reading that thread about the problems you had with him a while back....

-Felix

 

[Joe B]

4) The 6X/Saratoga should be kept, or possibly replaced with airframes that would take advantage of whatever they come up with for the new-age Archer replacement. Piper has always been one of the strong players in the 6-seat single market.

I agree with your sentiment but it looks like Piper is moving in the opposite direction. The 6X and 6XT are already gone. So is the Saratoga II HP. No announcements but they've simply vanished from the product line-up.

Regards,
Joe

 

[flyersfan31]

Sounds like a good list to me, especially your points about the Meridian. Like you said, Piper is pretty good at making good 6-seat singles. What's really missing IMO are new and _improved_ designs. I'd like to see a turbo'd, FIKI 6 seat single with good payload. Not just a rehash of the Saratoga.

That describes the Matrix. I would expect them to drop the Saratoga now.

I agree with Kent, they need to rationalize their product line. Problem is, that takes a LOT of capital, capital that Piper just doesn't have. I do think it is stupid for them to compete in the VLJ market, but it seems management has decided that the future of Piper lies in a product line that starts at the Matrix.

The Archer is a dead dog. The LSAs will take over the trainer market, and it's not modern enough to compete against the DA40. The Warrior? Even deader, I would think. The Arrow? About the only product I think merits building (in its role of complex trainer), but the market seems not to agree, since they only sell maybe 6 a year. Maybe there is no need for a complex trainer????

Oh, one thing I wouldn't do is build a new Cub. That market is saturated too, and it's not like there's anyone in Vero Beach who ever built one.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

I agree with your sentiment but it looks like Piper is moving in the opposite direction. The 6X and 6XT are already gone. So is the Saratoga II HP. No announcements but they've simply vanished from the product line-up.

Yep. Their marketing materials at AOPA Expo had no mention whatsoever of their four-seaters. They started at the turbo Saratoga and went up from there.

FWIW, our club might have been in the market for a 6X in the next couple of years. So much for that. I guess we'll stick with Cessna for whatever the 182 gets replaced with. Or maybe a DA50.

 

[Ken Ibold]

Piper and Cessna are the two candidates that seem to be in the best position in terms of actually delivering on their VLJ promises. Both know how to make airplanes. Eclipse is having nothing but problems, and I don't even know about Honda.

Honda calls it's product a VLJ, but it's really too big and too expensive to consider one. It's really a light jet. It's a true piece of engineering genius and it has one of the world's great companies backing it. It will succeed. In 10 years Cessna's gonna look back on what used to be its Citation line the same way GM and Ford got nailed by the Japanese imports in the 1980s. "What happened?"

Let's not forget about Embraer and Epic. Both know how to make airplanes, and especially Embraer isn't going away. I think all these new VLJ products might filter down into the turbo'd twin markets and, with any luck, replace those $1M Barons/Senecas with something that isn't any more expensive yet much more capable.

I don't. While the purchase price might not be any more expensive, the maintenance costs of turbines are an order or two of magnitude greater than pistons, and at a much lower fuel economy, especially below 30,000 feet.

 

[sba55]

Honda calls it's product a VLJ, but it's really too big and too expensive to consider one. It's really a light jet. It's a true piece of engineering genius and it has one of the world's great companies backing it. It will succeed. In 10 years Cessna's gonna look back on what used to be its Citation line the same way GM and Ford got nailed by the Japanese imports in the 1980s. "What happened?"

I didn't realize the HondaJet was that much bigger. Thanks for the insight!

I don't. While the purchase price might not be any more expensive, the maintenance costs of turbines are an order or two of magnitude greater than pistons, and at a much lower fuel economy, especially below 30,000 feet.

True. I'm hoping that with lots of VLJs, maintenance prices will go down (as well as turbine prices). Might be wishful thinking, though

I just don't think that piston engines are going to be around for that much longer for the HP singles/twins. The maintenance costs are a problem right now, but that aside, I don't see the benefit of a $1M Baron over a $1M VLJ.

-Felix

 

[Ken Ibold]

True. I'm hoping that with lots of VLJs, maintenance prices will go down (as well as turbine prices). Might be wishful thinking, though

I just don't think that piston engines are going to be around for that much longer for the HP singles/twins. The maintenance costs are a problem right now, but that aside, I don't see the benefit of a $1M Baron over a $1M VLJ.

The issue with turbine costs is the high tech alloys and close tolerances that allow the things to spin 20,000 rpm at intense heat for thousands of hours. I don't see how that can ever be cheap. The jets are more complex as well because of the added systems that allow the airplane to fly high/fast/far/in weather.

Personally, I think the gap will be filled by 350 hp piston diesels within the next few years. Continental has resurrected its diesel program, but while initially it was aiming for a bargain basement diesel to replace a Lyc IO-360 type engine, now they're looking upmarket at replacing the 350 hp gas engines

 

[flyersfan31]

The issue with turbine costs is the high tech alloys and close tolerances that allow the things to spin 20,000 rpm at intense heat for thousands of hours. I don't see how that can ever be cheap. The jets are more complex as well because of the added systems that allow the airplane to fly high/fast/far/in weather.

Personally, I think the gap will be filled by 350 hp piston diesels within the next few years. Continental has resurrected its diesel program, but while initially it was aiming for a bargain basement diesel to replace a Lyc IO-360 type engine, now they're looking upmarket at replacing the 350 hp gas engines

Agreed. The jets won't be cheap, and because of their operating characteristics aren't really conducive to typical GA flights (say 100-300mi hops). A big diesel, though, that's intriguing. Say what you will about the TwinStar speed, 160ish on 12gph out of 2 135hp mills ain't shabby. There's a lot more to be gotten from the aircraft diesel, methinks.

 

[sba55]

The issue with turbine costs is the high tech alloys and close tolerances that allow the things to spin 20,000 rpm at intense heat for thousands of hours. I don't see how that can ever be cheap. The jets are more complex as well because of the added systems that allow the airplane to fly high/fast/far/in weather.

No argument there, really. Turbines will probably never get cheap enough that you'd find them in every 182 out there, but I think the VLJ market will make them cheaper so that someone who's considering a $1M piston might be able to afford a $1M turbine.

Personally, I think the gap will be filled by 350 hp piston diesels within the next few years. Continental has resurrected its diesel program, but while initially it was aiming for a bargain basement diesel to replace a Lyc IO-360 type engine, now they're looking upmarket at replacing the 350 hp gas engines

That is indeed an interesting development. I'm glad that they're finally getting some new higher powered engines out there - might give us some true new 6 seaters again....

-Felix

 

[sba55]

Agreed. The jets won't be cheap, and because of their operating characteristics aren't really conducive to typical GA flights (say 100-300mi hops). A big diesel, though, that's intriguing. Say what you will about the TwinStar speed, 160ish on 12gph out of 2 135hp mills ain't shabby. There's a lot more to be gotten from the aircraft diesel, methinks.

It really depends on you define "typical GA" flights.

I don't usually take trips that are under 300NM, and most of my trips are non-stop 500NM+. I bet I'm not the only one with that mission profile - lots of people who fly HP singles/twins have similar profiles.

For those folk, VLJs really are quite desirable. If I'm by myself, I'm usually around 15k' to begin with, and I'd be a lot faster (and with pressurization, more comfortable) up there with a turbine. The big Diesels are interesting, nevertheless, the GA market is missing a rather large segment right now that used to be there - HP, X/C capable planes (P-Baron, etc.). Maybe VLJs can fill that segment, maybe not...

-Felix

 

[TMetzinger]

I think that the market reflects that most of those high-fast missions for piston airplanes are met by the Bravos, T-Bonanzas, Cirrii, and Columbiae. Generally the folks who own airplanes personally have missions for one or two people. When they have missions for more than that load and want private airplanes, they usually go the turboprop or jet route, either owned or chartered, single or multi.

 

[gkainz]

Adam appears to be revived?

http://www.9news.com/money/article.aspx?storyid=89711

 

[Anthony]

Cool! Thanks Greg.

 

[Ken Ibold]

Adam appears to be revived?

http://www.9news.com/money/article.aspx?storyid=89711

Though it will still fail. At Sun n Fun I was talking to an industry guy who looked at buying Adam. (If I said his name you'd instantly recognize it; he's a major player.) What he told me was staggering. An A500 was taking FIFTY THOUSAND labor hours to build. Ain't no way in the world to make money at that. (By comparison, an SR22 is taking Cirrus about 1350 labor hours to build.) Rick Adam figured he'd have to get it down to 5,000 to have a chance of making money. How the heck do you cut 90 percent out of labor? And that was before the price of carbon fiber went through the roof.

 

[SCCutler]

Though it will still fail. At Sun n Fun I was talking to an industry guy who looked at buying Adam. (If I said his name you'd instantly recognize it; he's a major player.) What he told me was staggering. An A500 was taking FIFTY THOUSAND labor hours to build. Ain't no way in the world to make money at that. (By comparison, an SR22 is taking Cirrus about 1350 labor hours to build.) Rick Adam figured he'd have to get it down to 5,000 to have a chance of making money. How the heck do you cut 90 percent out of labor? And that was before the price of carbon fiber went through the roof.

Ken:

That is like every plane is a new prototype!

Had they no production planning at all in the initial engineering?

Shame...

 

[flyersfan31]

Though it will still fail. At Sun n Fun I was talking to an industry guy who looked at buying Adam. (If I said his name you'd instantly recognize it; he's a major player.) What he told me was staggering. An A500 was taking FIFTY THOUSAND labor hours to build. Ain't no way in the world to make money at that. (By comparison, an SR22 is taking Cirrus about 1350 labor hours to build.) Rick Adam figured he'd have to get it down to 5,000 to have a chance of making money. How the heck do you cut 90 percent out of labor? And that was before the price of carbon fiber went through the roof.

Wow.

 

[Dean]

How the heck do you cut 90 percent out of labor?

Do like Cessna and have the Chinese build it.

 

[jason]

Do like Cessna and have the Chinese build it.

I think the Chinese have their hands full right now...what with all of the protesters and what not.

 

[Dave Siciliano]

Last I heard, Adam only had eight sales of the 500; many more on the jet. I couldn't figure out who the buyer would be. In that price range, lots of VLJs making noise with better performance.

Was like a Cessna 414/421 with a pull and push prop. Many older ones out there cheap (414s). I didn't need cabin class and didn't want the new hanger, insurance, and lower speed that came with it. Oh well.

Best,

Dave

 

[flyersfan31]

Last I heard, Adam only had eight sales of the 500; many more on the jet. I couldn't figure out who the buyer would be. In that price range, lots of VLJs making noise with better performance.

Was like a Cessna 414/421 with a pull and push prop. Many older ones out there cheap (414s). I didn't need cabin class and didn't want the new hanger, insurance, and lower speed that came with it. Oh well.

Best,

Dave

Great, though, if your mission don't always allow a climb into the high-20s. Push/Pull = CLT, so arguably safer. Non-geared engines. A brand new 421, as it were.

Of course, you could probably build 5 new 421s from scratch in 50,000manhours.

 

[Dave Siciliano]

Great, though, if your mission don't always allow a climb into the high-20s. Push/Pull = CLT, so arguably safer. Non-geared engines. A brand new 421, as it were.

Of course, you could probably build 5 new 421s from scratch in 50,000manhours.

Brand new 421 is how I thought of it. I don't think the CLT is that big a deal, although, the insurance folks may have liked it. There have been a lot of problems with this concept in the past. The engines are mounted to the cabin as opposed to the wings; louder and more vibration. The 337 Cessna always had trouble with that rear engine staying cool.

Once one got into spending this much money, there were a lot of options that sounded better on paper. Realistically, this might have been good for an affordable, pressurized twin, but how many folks purchase based just on numbers, engineering, etc.

This just goes to show how many divergent things a small business leader must do well. Not just come up with a concept, but also market, raise a ton of capital, perform market research, design, build a construction facility, hire lots of folks, build prototypes, get through the approval process, supervise and manage employees, work with investors and lenders and contract with and smooth out feathers of future owners. All this while the economy is in flux and we have politicians changing all the rules every four to eight years. Quite an undertaking. It's a wonder anyone but the biggest companies can successfully get through it.

Best,

Dave