182 down knoxville

mscard88 said:
Agree. Folks are just throwing thoughts and opinions MAKG, not trying to do the NTSB's job. You have S&R experience flying in the CAP, good for you. But I don't think trying to tell POAers not to discuss and speculate hurts a damn thing. Besides, no one is going to listen to you anyway, nor me, nor Cajun, and especially that SkyDog character. Oh and Mulligan, wherever he's at.
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Hey!

:incazzato:
 
Cajun_Flyer said:
Different people learn and process subjects differently. Reading old accident reports is definitely a great learning tool - I do it often. But so is analyzing newer incidents for which the cause has yet to be determined.
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Speculation in the absence of real data and information isn't analysis, it's PIDOOYA. If that helps you learn then more power to you, but let's not mistake it for something it isn't.

Nauga,
and his ORM
 
nauga said:
Speculation in the absence of real data and information isn't analysis, it's PIDOOYA. If that helps you learn then more power to you, but let's not mistake it for something it isn't.

Nauga,
and his ORM
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I'm not arguing for the sake of arguing. So, we'll just say I'm good with speculating, will continue to do so and make no apologies in that regard. Call me whatever weird acronyms I don't care enough to google you want ;)
 
Latest update: https://www.google.com/amp/www.wbir...plane-carrying-3-over-national-park/378876013

I am afraid when this is all said and done, we will find a number of things to learn from.

WARNING: complete and total speculation follows based on information currently available and based on my being in the air in that area and that time on Monday-

AVAILABLE DATA (validity unknown):

According to the flightaware track, The plane was cruising at 9,500' and began their descent at 3:53. At 4:02, the last radar contact was at 5,400', roughly 1.5 miles from a peak towering to 6593'.

METAR at 3:35 at pigeon forge/gatlinburg showed broken at 5500agl (6514MSL) and ovc at 6000ishAGL.

ASSUMPTIONS AND SPECULATION FOLLOW:

Making some assumptions from his track, and that he wasn't on an IFR flight plan, I am afraid he decided to let down through the clouds using the autopilot to keep the wings level.

The OROCA for that area is 8900. The VFR charts MEF is 7,000..

Judging by his proximity to and passage of Clingman's dome (the highest spot in the smokeys, he may have just been descending to make it down for the airport, but that still puts him in the clouds during much of his descent. Whether he even broke out or not we will likely never know, but with several radar hits showing less than 6500', no known evasive manicures or a radio call, I think this will be a case poor ADM, disregard for the rules and unwillingness to Confess to ATC that he had gotten himself in a tight spot

Having gone through all of that, I had a friend report to me that he had been out flying that same night, and gotten himself caught above a layer in a VFR-only airplane.

Rather than contact ATC, he decided to just let himself down through the layer over an uncontrolled airport, "because he knew the wouldn't be any obstacles there"

Makes me wonder if I couldn't be writing about my friend today in a midair, instead of three folks from Florida in a CFIT...
 
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arkvet said:
Or... It crashed near a mountain side home... Geesh, enough speculation already.:rolleyes:
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No, experience. Not speculation.

And the radar track has been published now, and shows a rather straight descending line into the side of a mountain. It's a VERY good track, and the wreckage was found 300 feet from the last point. Though I'm not very familiar with the region, the crash site appears to be the opposite side of a ridge, some 4-5 miles east of Gatlinburg.

Airplanes can crash ON AN AIRPORT and not be found for many hours, sometimes even days. It's a lot harder than you think it is.

And there aren't very many mountainside homes inside a national park.

It sure as hell doesn't look like a disorientation accident to me. And with a track like that, neither an instrument rating nor a BRS is going to do a damn thing to help.

So, go back to speculation. It apparently doesn't matter if you're right.

And if you think this is definitely a CFIT accident, you can't tell without inspecting the wreckage. It could easily be a fuel exhaustion accident, but the wreckage will tell you if there was fuel in either tank, even if it didn't ignite. Speculation will not. It will also tell you if the pilot tried to land the plane or just flew it in at cruise speed.
 
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SoCal RV Flyer said:
Speculation, again!

Hypocrisy much?
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You REALLY don't see the difference between actual data and nothing?

There is a radar track published. That's a HELL of a lot more than "Gee there were clouds 100 miles away," and is a whole hell of a lot more correct than assuming it's night at 4PM in Tennessee.

Sorry, dude. That's beyond help.
 
PPC1052 said:
Man, I sure hope that I'm not putting myself in positions that I need to "pull often." If so, I think I need to re-evaluate my decision making process. Not a slam on the BRS at all. I know what you're saying though, and I don't disagree. As pilots, we are hard wired not to pull if we can rationalize some chance of success without it and to not accept the full significance of the conditions we find ourselves in. This training is obviously pretty beneficial to break pilots of that so the BRS can do what it was intended to do and save some lives.
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The final selling point for me was a video at the COPA CPPP (Cirrus Pilots Proficiency Program). It went through multiple scenarios with Cirrus pilots who had identical issues and one chose to pull and all survived and the other chose to try and make a runway or land off airport and died. Obviously many people do engine outs successfully both on airport and off, but they're nowhere near the 100% survival rate of pulling the chute inside it's operating envelope (<200 kts, >500' AGL).

Even if I'm within gliding range of an airport I will still pull the chute if I lose the engine, because my odds of survival are greater.
 
tuwood said:
...Even if I'm within gliding range of an airport I will still pull the chute if I lose the engine, because my odds of survival are greater.
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But people sometimes crash and die during normal power landings, so using your logic you should pull the chute on every flight because your odds of survival are greater.
And again, I do think chutes have their uses... but then I have made a successful engine out landing without a scratch on me or the plane and without the option of a chute.
 
tawood said:
But people sometimes crash and die during normal power landings, so using your logic you should pull the chute on every flight because your odds of survival are greater.
And again, I do think chutes have their uses... but then I have made a successful engine out landing without a scratch on me or the plane and without the option of a chute.
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I'll refrain from being snarky because you have a cool username. :)
 
MAKG1 said:
And with a track like that, neither an instrument rating nor a BRS is going to do a damn thing to help.
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That seems speculative...
Maybe, maybe not. If he was just starting a normal descent to the airport on the other side and did CFIT then obviously an instrument rating would have helped if he chose to utilize it. If he had an instrument rating then he may have elected to file IFR rather than a night flight into the dark mountains. He would have been at a guaranteed safe altitude until the field was in sight for the visual or the approach clearance was given for an instrument approach.
To one of your points, there are too many questions that will probably never be 100% answered without asking the PIC. Many others will come up with more information from the investigation.
 
Radar Contact said:
If he had an instrument rating then he may have elected to file IFR rather than a night flight into the dark mountains.
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Not sure why folks keep referring to this as a night flights. He crashed at about 4:02pm local time. Not even close to night.
 
just to throw some more fuel on the fire (pun intended) kjax to ktys is 339nm fuel status could also be part of the equation. speculate on.........

bob
 
unsafervguy said:
just to throw some more fuel on the fire (pun intended) kjax to ktys is 339nm fuel status could also be part of the equation. speculate on.........

bob
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If the pilot had full tanks fuel would not have been a problem. And some C182s have long range tanks. Depending on winds aloft probably a 2 1/2 to 3 hour flight.
 
RotorDude said:
I hate to harp on it, but flying serious cross country without an instrument rating and instrument capable plane is playing Russian Roulette with your pax. :(
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I have flown from the Gulf of Mexico to Alaska a few times. I consider that serious cross country. All flights were VFR. More than once I ran into weather I was not happy with and delayed departure. I delayed 5 days on one trip, change my route, used all the tools available to me. It's all up to the pilot to make the "go no go decision". We do not know what happened other than lives were lost and an aircraft was destroyed.

I feel for the family and friends. Such a waste of human life...
 
RotorDude said:
I hate to harp on it, but flying serious cross country without an instrument rating and instrument capable plane is playing Russian Roulette with your pax. :(
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Serious cross country? Would that be opposed to a non-serious cross country? :)

I flew all over the States VFR for almost two decades before getting my Instrument ticket. It's plenty do-able.

Instead of "serious" perhaps you meant, "on a tight schedule", or "in bad weather"?

The biggest must-do if bopping around VFR is to be willing and even eager to land somewhere new and check out the vending machine and see if a pot of coffee is on, if the weather has gone to crap compared to the forecast.

Hell, I was doing it without tech, and printing off weather charts at the FBOs on tractor feed dot-matrix paper to look over to see what the hell changed, back then.

Nowadays with an iPad anyone can get weather information a million times better than I could get back then. Even re-plan their route by poking a few buttons instead of having to drag the charts in from the airplane, and write up a whole new navlog and frequency notes.

Running around VFR today should be a lot easier than when I was doing it. Didn't have GPS either. Just a VOR and a compass, usually. Got all excited if a rental had DME...
 
tuwood said:
I tend to agree. We simply don't know what happened at this point, but CFIT seems just as likely as spacial disorientation.
As for the BRS discussion, it's a great tool and I love knowing it's there in my Cirrus but it is still no replacement for flight planning and risk management. Low time pilot VFR at night with IMC and low fog is a BAD idea BRS or not.
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Not so much the BRS, but integrated avionics with TAWS would tell you that there is a ridge with trees beind that cloud bank you are about to penetrate.

Reminds me of the russian 'Superjet' crash in Indonesia.
 
http://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/...gone-now-says-mother-smokies-victim/95907104/

"The single-engine plane that crashed in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park this week slammed into a mountainside at 5,400 feet as the pilot descended to land at the Gatlinburg-Pigeon Forge Airport, according to a preliminary report from the Federal Aviation Administration. ...The plane went down about 15 miles southeast of the airport.

The plane lost contact with radar and communications with the airport tower at 5 p.m., according to National Transportation Safety Board spokesman Eric Weiss. He said the plane "impacted terrain" at 5,400 feet."

It goes on to say it was foggy and rainy, and that the pilot was not instrument rated. And then they start interviewing some random aviation attorney who has nothing to do with the case and his comments would likely make @MAKG1 see red. (spoiler - The guy makes speculations that had no place being in a news article.)

Anyway, the incident occurred at or around 5 pm, not 4 pm as others were saying. It does sound more and more like he descended into the clouds and struck a mountain he didn't see or know was there, but I guess time will tell. Thinking about that child in the plane and I actually really hope this is how it happened... I hope none of them saw it coming and that the kid never once felt an ounce of fear or pain.
 
tawood said:
It wasn't a "solution". Just a possible option. I'm finding fault with your "brs saves everything every time" mentality.
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Well. I didn't say that did I. Please don't speak for me.
 
This may make MAKG1 see red as well, but trying to let down in that area in low vis is just plain NUTS. I'm instrument rated, and I'd be on my toes and nervous doing an instrument approach in those conditions. No room for error.
 
Bill Jennings said:
This may make MAKG1 see red as well, but trying to let down in that area in low vis is just plain NUTS. I'm instrument rated, and I'd be on my toes and nervous doing an instrument approach in those conditions. No room for error.
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Agree, Only way in the soup would be firmly on an IAP and even then I wouldn't' exactly be comfortable.
 
Over on beechtalk it was stated that the crew that went in for the rescue did not find any charts/iPad,etc. I would think that would be a hard determination to make, depending on the state of the wreckage.
 
Bill Jennings said:
This may make MAKG1 see red as well, but trying to let down in that area in low vis is just plain NUTS. I'm instrument rated, and I'd be on my toes and nervous doing an instrument approach in those conditions. No room for error.
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Yup. I was crossing the Smokies once at 9000' in an ATR on a clear night headed for KTRI and even at that safe altitude the tops looked close.
 
Tflhndn said:
Not sure why folks keep referring to this as a night flights. He crashed at about 4:02pm local time. Not even close to night.
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It was based off the initial report which was later amended with the correct time.
 
mscard88 said:
Yup. I was crossing the Smokies once at 9000' in an ATR on a clear night headed for KTRI and even at that safe altitude the tops looked close.
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Our airport used to be serviced almost exclusively by ATRs. Were you ComAir? ASA?
 
As a new pilot I appreciate the speculation. It presents to me potential hazards I may not have considered. The potential hazards or cause of an incident may not be the actual cause, but they do expand my knowledge of issues I should be paying attention to, recognizing, and most important, training to prevent. Based on issues raised on this board as speculation I have discussed scenarios and done some training with my CFI I would not have otherwise done.
 
Somedudeintn said:
Over on beechtalk it was stated that the crew that went in for the rescue did not find any charts/iPad,etc. I would think that would be a hard determination to make, depending on the state of the wreckage.
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In this case, instead of having a BRS equipped plane and a paper chart for navigation (which he would have been looking down at or trying to unfold)

He would have been much better off with ForeFlight for navigation and it's synthetic vision, it's AHRS and in flight safety alerts, (i.e 500 AGL).


Of course, he would have been better if he did not place himself in that dangerous situation, but that is a different argument, he did place himself their albeit unintentionally in my opinion and If you found yourself in that situation what would you want your airplane equipped with?
 
mscard88 said:
ASA
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Ha! A good possibility I may have been PAX on one of your flights. You don't want to know what words I usually used for the acronym ASA :lol:. But mainly because they'd leave me stranded at ATL at 11pm. It got to the point sometimes that I'd just rather drive from CHA to ATL or BNA than take the commuter flight.
 
All I can do, when this stuff happens, is shake my head and wonder how, with all the emphasis on this kind of accident in GA (taking for granted the initial report is true), people are still dying. It is plain stupid, irresponsible and inexcusable!
 
Tflhndn said:
Not sure why folks keep referring to this as a night flights. He crashed at about 4:02pm local time. Not even close to night.
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According to the FAA preliminary, it happened at 5:00. Not quite night, but also not 4:02.
 
Bill Jennings said:
Ha! A good possibility I may have been PAX on one of your flights. You don't want to know what words I usually used for the acronym ASA :lol:. But mainly because they'd leave me stranded at ATL at 11pm. It got to the point sometimes that I'd just rather drive to ATL or BNA thasuch as Almost SChen take the commuter flight.
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Oh I probably have better ones, like Almost Scheduled Airlines, Another Shety Airline etc. :D

BTW Comair didn't operate ATRs.
 
ahypnoz said:
He would have been much better off with ForeFlight for navigation and it's synthetic vision, it's AHRS and in flight safety alerts, (i.e 500 AGL).
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Uh-oh! Now MAKG is going to really be seeing red.
 
mscard88 said:
Oh I probably have better ones, like Almost Scheduled Airlines, Another Shety Airline etc. :D

BTW Comair didn't operate ATRs.
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America's Shetiest Airline or Always Stays in Atlanta were my favorite two.

And yeah, I guess it was CRJs to CVG when Comair was doing the connection. Been a good long while since I was travelling.
 
ahypnoz said:
In this case, instead of having a BRS equipped plane and a paper chart for navigation (which he would have been looking down at or trying to unfold)

He would have been much better off with ForeFlight for navigation and it's synthetic vision, it's AHRS and in flight safety alerts, (i.e 500 AGL).


Of course, he would have been better if he did not place himself in that dangerous situation, but that is a different argument, he did place himself their albeit unintentionally in my opinion and If you found yourself in that situation what would you want your airplane equipped with?
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Agreed, flying VFR on top or IFR I'm always staying aware of terrain and terrain clearance. G430/530 terrain mode or foreflight terrain mode is another tool that helps.
 
Bill Jennings said:
America's Shetiest Airline or Always Stays in Atlanta were my favorite two.

And yeah, I guess it was CRJs to CVG when Comair was doing the connection. Been a good long while since I was travelling.
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ASA operated ATRs out of CVG for awhile.
 
mscard88 said:
If the pilot had full tanks fuel would not have been a problem. And some C182s have long range tanks. Depending on winds aloft probably a 2 1/2 to 3 hour flight.
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And enough to divert? I don't know how widespread the IFR conditions were, but I do know down here 96kmi away it was IFR. Another possibility is he got there and then realized he didn't have the fuel to divert to a VFR field.

Maybe VFR pilots should be informed as to what a PAR approach is, and maybe try one during primary training. The guy could have bugged out to TYS next door and had the controllers help him get in.
 
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