Upcoming AD for many more PA-28 and PA-36 wing spars. 100 anomalies and 6 cracked wings found

Bell206 said:
The actual work is measured in days/weeks if you have the right set up which they do. Backlog and part lead times is what causes the months. If it took years no one could make any money at it.
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That's what I mean; I figured the backlog and parts would make it more than a year. Seems crazy that it takes less time to get a wing spar replaced than an engine overhauled.

I was talking to my local shop about it a couple weeks ago. The flight school they take care of will have 3 grounded planes if it goes through as written. They were trying to decide if they wanted to tackle it themselves or not, and if they could even get the parts.
 
po1212 said:
I do not think they would life limit the airframe given the choice.
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Sure they would have. 60 years later they are still flying which takes away from selling new ones.


Add in the liability and parts support, and it doesn’t make sense to keep supporting these aged out airframes.
 
Doc Holliday said:
Sure they would have. 60 years later they are still flying which takes away from selling new ones.


Add in the liability and parts support, and it doesn’t make sense to keep supporting these aged out airframes.
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The cost of new aircraft is what is preventing selling new airplanes.
 
Doc Holliday said:
It may be preventing some, but there are people who can afford them.
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Not in the Cherokee/172 class. New ones of both are available, but to a first order only flight schools buy them. So if today a good used Cherokee costs 75-150k, their banishment will not lead to a host of 500k Warriors being sold. Some, yes, but not enough to sustain the GA ecosystem at all IMHO.
 
Steamflyer said:
Not in the Cherokee/172 class. New ones of both are available, but to a first order only flight schools buy them. So if today a good used Cherokee costs 75-150k, their banishment will not lead to a host of 500k Warriors being sold. Some, yes, but not enough to sustain the GA ecosystem at all IMHO.
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I know an individual that bought a new 172 not that long ago. I'll let him know. :rolleyes:
 
Steamflyer said:
But there aren't many that can afford that amount of capital.
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I guess it depends on how you define "many". If you look over the past 10 years those "many" private aircraft buyers have shelled out a pretty good sized chuck of change on new single, piston aircraft. There will always be a fair number of people who buy new regardless of the perceived market.
 
Bell206 said:
I guess it depends on how you define "many". If you look over the past 10 years those "many" private aircraft buyers have shelled out a pretty good sized chuck of change on new single, piston aircraft. There will always be a fair number of people who buy new regardless of the perceived market.
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Textron sells about a dozen Barons a year now, how many did they sell in the 1970's?
 
In 1977 or so GA aircraft production was about over 17,000 aircraft. It was similarly high for a couple years on either side of that year, then quickly decreased. Something like 15,000 Cherokees have been built; if one assumes 7000 are still flying, that's where the bulk of the fleet is. If they were x-out, there aren't 7000 people who are going to pay 500k for a new one, not to mention the supply chain couldn't even support building that number in any reasonable time frame.
 
po1212 said:
Textron sells about a dozen Barons a year now, how many did they sell in the 1970's?
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Zero comparison to todays market. The Part 91 recreation market imploded on itself between 1980 and 1985 for various reasons but more specifically due to civil liability costs went through the roof. It wasn’t until congress passed GARA in the 90s that Cessna (Textron) even started producing those 1722, 182s, and 206s. So you need to start around 2000 to compare your Baron numbers, but the big winner since then has been Cirrus but they had help from NASA’s AGATE program to bring it to market.

Steamflyer said:
if one assumes 7000 are still flying, that's where the bulk of the fleet is. If they were x-out, there aren't 7000 people who are going to pay 500k for a new one, not to mention the supply chain couldn't even support building that number in any reasonable time frame.
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How big do you think the current Part 91 recreational aircraft market is today?
 
Bell206 said:
Zero comparison to todays market. The Part 91 recreation market imploded on itself between 1980 and 1985 for various reasons but more specifically due to civil liability costs went through the roof. It wasn’t until congress passed GARA in the 90s that Cessna (Textron) even started producing those 1722, 182s, and 206s. So you need to start around 2000 to compare your Baron numbers, but the big winner since then has been Cirrus but they had help from NASA’s AGATE program to bring it to market.


How big do you think the current Part 91 recreational aircraft market is today?
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Between 1100 and 1900 per year. Alternatively stated, since 2002, there have been about the same number of piston GA aircraft sold as there were just in one year in the late 1970s. Here are the data for the big three, including exotics like Malibi and Columbias. Data from GAMA.
GA Sales.jpg
 
Steamflyer said:
Between 1100 and 1900 per year.
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By market, I meant how many current Part 91 recreational aircraft owners are there. New units per year tends to not to mean much unless you compare it to all the potential buyers.
 
Bell206 said:
By market, I meant how many current Part 91 recreational aircraft owners are there. New units per year tends to not to mean much unless you compare it to all the potential buyers.
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About 200k registered aircraft in US. A very gestalt number is about 1/2 actually fly. 600k pilots including PVT, COM, and ATP.
 
Steamflyer said:
About 200k registered aircraft in US. A very gestalt number is about 1/2 actually fly. 600k pilots including PVT, COM, and ATP.
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The key word is recreational. So if you follow the general numbers most industry people use, there are approx. 205,000 general aviation aircraft in the US... or about 212,000 if you include Part 121 aircraft. Of those GA aircraft numbers about 65% are used for commercial purposes so we're down to 72,000 aircraft. Subtract about 28,000 for E/AB and 7,000 for LSA and you get to about 37,000 aircraft. Now reduce that number by another 7,000 or so for private helicopters, gliders, etc. and you're at about 30,000 TC'd aircraft used for private or recreational purposes. In the big picture, the recreational aircraft market is not that big and is the reason few OEMs spend the money to expand in it.
 
Racerx said:
Any pictures of the crack? Morbid curiosity and disbelief is getting the best of me.
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I haven’t even contacted the insurance company, I never gave it a thought. I will call them and ask, at least change the insurance to none movement until this get sorted.
 
Bell206 said:
The actual work is measured in days/weeks if you have the right set up which they do. Backlog and part lead times is what causes the months. If it took years no one could make any money at it.
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Exactly, they are just busy and have to deal with all the work they have on top of this now they are neck deep is backlog work. Another local here has offer to help by doing the spar replacement and I going to schedule it for January if possible. So I have options is just expensive options.
But again I am glad I found out, I have flown with my wife and kids and thank God nothing happened, maybe nothing could have happen for years after all it’s one out 6 holes but who knows, I just in the mind set of trying to figure out an fix and I am glad I am in a partnership.
 
Kelvin Matthews said:
Exactly, they are just busy and have to deal with all the work they have on top of this now they are neck deep is backlog work. Another local here has offer to help by doing the spar replacement and I going to schedule it for January if possible. So I have options is just expensive options.
But again I am glad I found out, I have flown with my wife and kids and thank God nothing happened, maybe nothing could have happen for years after all it’s one out 6 holes but who knows, I just in the mind set of trying to figure out an fix and I am glad I am in a partnership.
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Did you remove the wing and perform the fluorescent penetrant inspection to confirm the existence of a crack per Piper's Service Bulletin # 1412?
 
Kelvin Matthews said:
they did the eddy current inspection twice
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As an FYI, with the wing removed, it would not be a bad idea to double check the eddy current result with a fluorescent penetrant check. Given the amount of work to repair, I would want to be doubly sure it is a true crack.

Gary said:
Believe I got the Service Bulletin number wrong. Think it should be SB 1372.
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SB 1372 and SB 1412 are the separate bulletins to check the spar holes based on whether the aircraft falls under a calculated service hour requirement or not. Same difference on the separate ADs being proposed.
 
Bell206 said:
The key word is recreational. So if you follow the general numbers most industry people use, there are approx. 205,000 general aviation aircraft in the US... or about 212,000 if you include Part 121 aircraft. Of those GA aircraft numbers about 65% are used for commercial purposes so we're down to 72,000 aircraft. Subtract about 28,000 for E/AB and 7,000 for LSA and you get to about 37,000 aircraft. Now reduce that number by another 7,000 or so for private helicopters, gliders, etc. and you're at about 30,000 TC'd aircraft used for private or recreational purposes. In the big picture, the recreational aircraft market is not that big and is the reason few OEMs spend the money to expand in it.
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Hmm, estimates in the Mooney world is about 7,000 airplanes still registered, IIRC. Not many used in commercial service.
 
Pinecone said:
Hmm, estimates in the Mooney world is about 7,000 airplanes still registered, IIRC. Not many used in commercial service.
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Having been around airports for many decades, I'd say about 1/2 of registered aircraft actually fly. Suspect not that different for Mooneys - know of several offhand that haven't flown in years or fly 5 hours between annuals. Registration, airworthiness, and utilization are three different things.
 
most of the GA fleet is mothballed junk. Every single airplane for sale I've put an offer in the last 12 months, has uncovered years of pencil whipped annuals at effectively less than 10 hours a year amortized. Registration #s a crap metric.

I know I know, they look at OSH and think we be thrivin!TM. Another self-congratulatory circle jerk, but ultimately specious metric.
 
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