I’m calling the peak

This type of aircraft has been discussed on here in the past, but there’s currently a 180 hp Lark (Aero Commander) for sale for only $55k. The cruise speed is less stellar than the 160 hp Skyhawk, but more importantly is how is the parts availability? And also finding an A&P that can maintain it?
 
charheep said:
The days of a sub-100k plane are almost over. Average 172 prices are $128k!
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In the sector I've been stalking passively for 4 years and actively for almost 2, asking prices can already be found below 100k. It's still outrageously expensive for what they are, and the open listings are sitting junk. These sellers are merely trying to obfuscate the turd and pawn it off as they attempt to "organic sell" (loss of medical is the leader, looking at my multiple negotiations with these folks for the past 18 months).

For my part, the biggest obstacle/aversion to getting back in, is singularly the powerplant situation in this hobby. The all-in price of the aircraft just cannot be negotiated to address the present labor and parts circumstances that these powerplants impose. Two potential sales I've lost this year at a price I would have otherwise had agreed to (both below 100K mind you), on account of these powerplant pricing impasses. It's a hot potato, and nobody wants to get stuck with it. The problem for these sellers is that the financed suckers who don't know a thing about lawnmower engine inflation, the ones who normally eat that problem-shifting, are tapped out. Those of us who are well-seasoned on the matter are obviously not biting at the asking prices, so the airplanes sit and rot. List, de-list, repeat ad nauseam. In fairness, some airplanes are moving, but it's all pocket listings. Problem with pocket listings is that it's a big effing club, and most of us are not in it. In that regard, public inventory doesn't paint the true picture, as it's the shadow inventory that moves, the public listing stuff is overpriced FOMO junk.
 
hindsight2020 said:
In the sector I've been stalking passively for 4 years and actively for almost 2, asking prices can already be found below 100k. It's still outrageously expensive for what they are, and the open listings are sitting junk. These sellers are merely trying to obfuscate the turd and pawn it off as they attempt to "organic sell" (loss of medical is the leader, looking at my multiple negotiations with these folks for the past 18 months).

For my part, the biggest obstacle/aversion to getting back in, is singularly the powerplant situation in this hobby. The all-in price of the aircraft just cannot be negotiated to address the present labor and parts circumstances that these powerplants impose. Two potential sales I've lost this year at a price I would have otherwise had agreed to (both below 100K mind you), on account of these powerplant pricing impasses. It's a hot potato, and nobody wants to get stuck with it. The problem for these sellers is that the financed suckers who don't know a thing about lawnmower engine inflation, the ones who normally eat that problem-shifting, are tapped out. Those of us who are well-seasoned on the matter are obviously not biting at the asking prices, so the airplanes sit and rot. List, de-list, repeat ad nauseam. In fairness, some airplanes are moving, but it's all pocket listings. Problem with pocket listings is that it's a big effing club, and most of us are not in it. In that regard, public inventory doesn't paint the true picture, as it's the shadow inventory that moves, the public listing stuff is overpriced FOMO junk.
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So if I'm understanding correctly, you're not going to buy the aforementioned $750k Cessna 210? :p

The powerplant is definitely the big hot potato. Doesn't matter if you're a financed-millionaire or not, actually. Most people buying a $100-200k plane don't relish the opportunity to spend anywhere from 6-24 months of downtime and becoming 50-100k$ poorer (depending on the engine in question) while they wait for an overhaul/remanufactured or new engine. I suspect that's why there's a lot of people who do listings these days to try and allay these concerns. And I noticed starting a couple years ago an increase in people that instead of listing SMOH times will list STOH times, or "Since IRAN" times. Or they'll include a quick pitch about: "I know it's high time but the engine is bullet proof and it runs great!" or "strong running engine with GREAT compressions!!". I always see those comments and think of them as the aviation version of Baghdad Bob.
1730072947748.png

And I write that knowing I may well be that guy when I sell!

And occasionally you even get gems like this (for a 100k$ Piper Arrow). Not saying the airplane is bad, but some people are just deeply out of touch with reality. Engines, airframes the whole lot.
1730072631935.png
 
hindsight2020 said:
For my part, the biggest obstacle/aversion to getting back in, is singularly the powerplant situation in this hobby. The all-in price of the aircraft just cannot be negotiated to address the present labor and parts circumstances that these powerplants impose. Two potential sales I've lost this year at a price I would have otherwise had agreed to (both below 100K mind you), on account of these powerplant pricing impasses. It's a hot potato, and nobody wants to get stuck with it. The problem for these sellers is that the financed suckers who don't know a thing about lawnmower engine inflation, the ones who normally eat that problem-shifting, are tapped out. Those of us who are well-seasoned on the matter are obviously not biting at the asking prices, so the airplanes sit and rot. List, de-list, repeat ad nauseam. In fairness, some airplanes are moving, but it's all pocket listings. Problem with pocket listings is that it's a big effing club, and most of us are not in it. In that regard, public inventory doesn't paint the true picture, as it's the shadow inventory that moves, the public listing stuff is overpriced FOMO junk.
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The engine comments are spot on. While waiting for McCauley to get around to manufacturing a fixed pitch DCM 6950 propeller (mine failed annual inspection due to corrosion in bolt holes) I've decided to have my O-200 overhauled, even knowing that the combined price of the new propeller and overhaul will exceed the value of the plane. Other than the "typical" little Continental oil leaks the engine was running fine, good compressions, oil and filter analysis at just over 1800 hours. The engine shop says approximately 8 months to completion (assuming the crank is OK, fingers crossed) which will still beat McCauley's estimate for the prop. When it comes time to sell the sales price will be giving away either the plane of the engine/prop, assuming prices don't tank before then.
 
DMD3. said:
This type of aircraft has been discussed on here in the past, but there’s currently a 180 hp Lark (Aero Commander) for sale for only $55k. The cruise speed is less stellar than the 160 hp Skyhawk, but more importantly is how is the parts availability? And also finding an A&P that can maintain it?
Click to expand...
I wondered about that as well when I saw the listing. Definitely piqued my interest for a moment.
 
It will be interesting to see if the top end (as defined earlier), say >200K pistons slow down while the bottom end potentially increases, both from people buying less than they might have (me) and potential market affects from the MOSAIC rule changes that might make more small, legacy pistons approachable by many, many more people. It was one of the factors in choosing the plane I did (besides it seeming a good fit for my mission, budget, and experience levels).
 
MIFlyer said:
It will be interesting to see if the top end (as defined earlier), say >200K pistons slow down while the bottom end potentially increases, both from people buying less than they might have (me) and potential market affects from the MOSAIC rule changes that might make more small, legacy pistons approachable by many, many more people. It was one of the factors in choosing the plane I did (besides it seeming a good fit for my mission, budget, and experience levels).
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The thing is, if high demand increases prices on the low end, the higher end is pushed up as well. With the huge demand and insane prices for trainers, my airplane (M20R, definitely nothing near a trainer!) roughly doubled in value for a while. If you can sell your formerly-$40K C172 for $120K, then you have the money to step up to a C182 for example, so the demand for, and price of, the C182 increases as well, and on up the line.

It was enough that I thought about selling the plane for a hot second. Then I thought about what it would be like to not have a plane and decided to keep it. I'm also right on the corner of the price-performance curve, so it's really hard to justify moving to a different plane!
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
that wouldn't be the new proposed spar AD could it? That only came out recently. And affects more than just the -28.
Just wondering.
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I was pretty set on having a piper in consideration when buying (it was between a Dakota and a C182) and the proposed expansion of the AD definitely pushed me towards a 182
 
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