Wisconsin governor drops MOAB on his state economy

[Tantalum]

The good news is that once we get past this, there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the U.S. economy, and a relatively quick recovery of economic activity can ensue.

That's what I'm hoping for.. the movie was good, we just had to press pause for a moment to use the bathroom.. the length of that pause is dependent on those three things you astutely mentioned.

 

[chemgeek]

@jspilot yes, unfortunately it is a one size fits all "solution" for example lets look at two different areas in NY. Allegany county in NY has 2 confirmed cases and a population of 47,000 people the county is 1,034 mi². Long Island, actually 4 counties, according to the interwebs has 7.5 Million people and is 1,401 mi². So the population densities aren't even in the same league but both are doing the same things. It just seems to me we could probably be smart enough to manage the different risk levels of both places.

The risk (i.e., caseload growth rates) just isn't that much different for different communities. Everywhere COVID-19 gets started, it usually has a doubling time of 2-3 days unless measures are taken to reduce transmission. Pick pretty much any community in the country that has a couple of weeks or more of caseload data, and you will likely find exponential growth with a doubling time of 2-3 days. Doesn't matter that much if it is NY City, Vermont, Connecticut, whatever. When that growth continues for a month unabated, it overwhelms the local healthcare system. The math is predictable. So is the hospitalization rate, and the fatality rate. Comparing current caseloads between regions is futile, because they are not at the same point of their outbreak. It is like comparing baseball scores in the 1st and 7th innings. New York and Washington state just have the distinction of having their outbreaks start earlier. Everyone else will get theirs later.

 

[DFH65]

The risk (i.e., caseload growth rates) just isn't that much different for different communities. Everywhere COVID-19 gets started, it usually has a doubling time of 2-3 days unless measures are taken to reduce transmission. Pick pretty much any community in the country that has a couple of weeks or more of caseload data, and you will likely find exponential growth with a doubling time of 2-3 days. Doesn't matter that much if it is NY City, Vermont, Connecticut, whatever. When that growth continues for a month unabated, it overwhelms the local healthcare system. The math is predictable. So is the hospitalization rate, and the fatality rate. Comparing current caseloads between regions is futile, because they are not at the same point of their outbreak. It is like comparing baseball scores in the 1st and 7th innings. New York and Washington state just have the distinction of having their outbreaks start earlier. Everyone else will get theirs later.

There is now stopping this at this point. We can hole up and slow it down. We can hole up and possibly prevent some from being infected. We are only buying time and slowing the tide on hospital resources. It is like fighting a forest fire you knock it down but there are going to be flare ups here and there and you deal with them as they pop up until there is a vaccine. Even Cuomo has said that shutting down the whole state may not have been the best strategy.

I live in a small rural county the whole county is shut down. We have been in quarantine essentially a week here. Despite the 14 day number you hear for symptoms the more typical is 3-5 days. Our case number hasn't changed. By now we should be seeing more cases if they exist. That tells me this whole county is idle for no reason at this point. If people use good social distancing, good hygiene and don't meet in large groups this should not change or if it does it should be slow and can be dealt with.

 

[weilke]

I live in a small rural county the whole county is shut down. We have been in quarantine essentially a week here. Despite the 14 day number you hear for symptoms the more typical is 3-5 days. Our case number hasn't changed. By now we should be seeing more cases if they exist. That tells me this whole county is idle for no reason at this point. If people use good social distancing, good hygiene and don't meet in large groups this should not change or if it does it should be slow and can be dealt with.

Correct.