Wind shear / turbulence

arkvet

Line Up and Wait
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Display name:
Brent
so I was planning on a trip early this am (6:30 CST departure) from KPGR (northeast Arkansas) to Nashville TN (specifically KMBT). It's windy and there's and airsigmet for Turbulence over the entire area. Also some of the area forecasts are warning of wind shear up to 50 mph at 2000'.

I'm going to be honest, As a flat lander it's not often I have to consider wind shear in the go / no go decision. I fly a Saratoga that handles bumps pretty well but I just wonder what others thoughts are on wx of this nature.

I will add that I don't mind somewhat of an unpleasant flight. What I do mind is a safety concern.
 
50 MPH is a lot of wind shear. It's much better at 2000 than at the surface, but I'd be concerned about severe turbulence, not moderate, with that much shear.

I'd think twice about it. PIREPs can be really helpful here.

Is it an AIRMET or a SIGMET? It makes a difference.
 
Correction. It is an Airmet rather than Sigmet. Also right now I can't find any mention of "wind shear" at any of the Forecasts along the route. About 9pm last night there was lots of mention.

I honestly went to bed last night planning to drive. Other than the general gusty winds and the memory of that wind shear mention the forecast has improved. Should be mostly clear skies for the rather brief trip.
 
On foreflight the pireps are scarce which I take to mean the recent conditions aren't too severe.
 
Sounds like a good chance for a Go. Enjoy!
 
I had similar weather conditions a week ago and the winds were in fact 50 at 2000'. Aside from the tailwind assist on the way to my destination (and the reverse going home) the ride was surprisingly smooth. There were a few mild bumps descending and the winds on the runway were around 10-15 so there was a significant shear but not that noticeable at altitude.
 
Not the case. This non-convective wind shear forecast doesn't imply turbulence. In most cases, the air is very smooth. Attached in the Skew-T that explains it. Stable conditions near the surface decouple the lower portion of the atmosphere allowing winds to accelerate unencumbered by surface friction (vertical speed shear). Stable conditions also promote a laminar flow and little chance for turbulence. I am really not sure why this forecast is so difficult for pilots to understand.


Given that 99% of us have no idea how to read this chart, I'm going to assume you were being facetious.
 
I've flown in this sort of condition before (early morning). ATIS said fairly low wind on the ground - my first clue was that I was still over the runway when I got to pattern altitude - push the nose down and turn into the wind - ain't mak'n no progress at 2000 feet (1400 AGL) - actually got passed by a golf cart and decided to give it up. No big turbulence, nothing exciting other than I wasn't going to get anywhere to the west...
 
Amazing display of knowledge, or lack thereof, on display. Scary stuff.
 
This is called nonconvective low level wind shear. It is NOT a forecast for turbulence despite what most pilots are taught or perceive (most CFIs don't know what this is either). Typically when this is forecast the air is glassy smooth.

I would agree this is true for the planes or flat terrain, but in mountainous areas turbulence normally occurs with wind shear at altitude.
 
Study up on the Skew-T, it is very useful. LLWS affects larger aircraft the most. During my climb up into a 60 kt shear after a tornado-producing cold front in Feb 2012, it was very smooth. The winds do not go from 0-60 kts within a few feet like many pilots think. I watched it on my EFIS and our large track/heading difference on the way up.

After getting over some of the small foothills of the Appalachians, yes there was some nice turbulence.
 
This depends on what's causing the nonconvective LLWS. If the atmosphere is very stable it's really, really hard to get any atmospheric mixing, and therefore, bumps that we feel in the cockpit as turbulence. This is a surface-based phenomenon and not something that occurs aloft, hence the term low level. I've flown in this kind of wind shear dozens of times all across the country and the result is typically laminar flow. There are situations where this can get ugly and the nonconvective LLWS can contribute to downbursts or microbursts and sometimes significant turbulence.

Agreed. I guess what I was trying to express is the non laminar flow caused by wind across mountains.
 
I appreciate the discussion. Learned a lot!

For those that suggest this is not difficult to understand I simply say this is not a phenomenon that I've ever seen. I took my first flying lesson 2.5 years ago and have about 200 hours logged. I'm based at 300 MSL and there aren't any mountains for a very long way.

Conventive weather and associated wind shear is something I see all the time.

The idea of CAVU wind shear @ 2000' with zero % chance of thunderstorms was simply something I've never seen or had to think about. I realize you mountain guys get to think about wind shear quite often though.

I have thought about taking some additional weather courses to help out with these deficiencies. Ive passed my IFR written and am about half way through the flying requirements.
 
Oh and flying home yesterday afternoon the turbulence from ground to 5500' was brutal (let's say moderate by definition). At 6500' it was as smooth as glass, but the trade off was a 40 knot headwind. Rather be slow and smooth than faster and rough as hell. One of the few times I had to really cinched down that lap belt.

And as mentioned early in the thread, foreflight was littered with PIREPS in my region with warnings of turbulence in the lower levels.

I try to learn something every time I fly and these flights were good lessons for sure.
 
Great post and discussion. Two weeks ago I was faced with a similar airmet: low level wind shear with 4-6 knots surface wind and 40 knots at 3000', with 50 at 5000. I cancelled the flight fearing that the turbulence would be uncomfortable. In retrospect I should have flown that day.

Two day later there were similar circumstances: 30 @3000, nearly calm at the surface. It was very smooth at 3000, however, and the only thing I noticed was the terrific cross wind during the instrument approach and mild to moderate turbulence at around 500 ft.
 
Wind shear in the flair can toss you hard onto the pavement of the runway.
 
Not surprised you haven't heard about this...most CFIs don't know what it is.

And those who do, may even know how to spot it on a Skew-T but perhaps inappropriately usually use other cues to decide that the AIRMET is off the rails, and don't even bother pulling up the Skew-T. ;)

For the person surprised they haven't seen a Skew-T...

One can spend hours and hours looking at turbulence forecasts and data, or just pull the seatbelt tighter and go, unless it's so bad there's actually some PIREPs in the system. Heh.

Severe LLWS is fairly rare overall, and moderate at an airport is "old hat" and just "stuff you had to fly and land in anyway" by the time you've achieved the Commerical rating. :)

Most pilots ears do perk up when they hear the guy or gal in front of them report a 20 knot airspeed change on final, though! :)

Sadly, most of what one learns about AIRMETs over a long period of time is that they're usually the Boy Who Cried Wolf. A bad thing when they're not, but unfortunately they're not all that useful most of the time. SIGMETs get everyone's attention. AIRMETs are mostly just a reminder to look at a few other things and decide if they look looney.

That's not said in my "CFI voice" reserved for teaching students of course. All students shall review AIRMETs and take them seriously.

They'll learn not to, all on their own, later on. Hahaha. Ouch. But true.

Plus a low time student or even private rated pilot does need to watch out for the low level stuff, but then there's going to be the day when the ENTIRE forecast is a bust and they're sweating it out rocking down final in a blow.

That's GOING to happen to them eventually, so I'd best teach them how to land in it and taxi the airplane to somewhere to tie it down without flipping it over first, and we can spend some time on the AIRMET and Skew-T later. In the limited time we've got before they head for a checkride, it's not going to get much more than lip service.

This is why pilots have to be determined to keep learning after ratings are earned. Ratings are just the minimum standard. Not the end.

Hopefully I can show them a LITTLE BIT of Skew-T stuff they might peek at to figure it all out, but there's a pretty good chance my Skew-T reading is about the fourth grade level. LOL. I can see icing stuff way better than wind stuff on them, so far. Just being honest here.

Always happy to learn more, but we'd better make sure they can land or divert safely anyway., because they'll get caught out on a bad day eventually no matter how many weather charts they know how to read. :)

Not a single CFI had ever shown me a Skew-T in over a decade of flying -- and I first read about them online -- then younger CFIs have had discussions about them with me more recently, including some real world work looking at them with @jesse during Instrument rating training and beyond -- so I definitely won't be "that guy" who never mentions them to students... but they're not taught much by older CFIs.

They still taught weather awareness just fine, but not from that tool. Sometimes the discussion was limited to, "You're going to get your butt kicked over a 1000 square mile area today, I promise." And all they did was look out the window of the flight school office. :)

After a while you see it and realize you caught a number of hints in various weather sources, including your eyeballs, that the student doesn't see yet. And you need to teach them how to see it. The Skew-T is one of many tools at your disposal.

That's probably the most important thing to know: Your instructor didn't teach you EVERYTHING about flying or about weather or even about ALL of the best FBOs that have lunch counters. You'll still have to go find some of it on your own! ;) They got you safe and squared away enough to pass the checkride and hopefully a bit more. Everyone has more learning to do after that.
 
99.9% of certificated pilots don't know how to interpret these thermodynamic diagrams. So you are not in the minority.

Then would you like to turn this into a teaching opportunity, or are we going to just get more skew-t's thrown at us with no context or knowledge with which to decipher them?
 
Thanks Scott.

By the way, I asked a CFII a year or so ago if she used Skew-T. She had no idea what I was talking about. Reading Skew-T diagrams are not generally taught by CFII's (mine didn't). What little I know, I learned from your shorter weather course on PilotWorkshops. In that course, you didn't go into detail about Skew-T (I wish you had), but just briefly mentioned them. For those here who want Scott to use this thread as a teaching opportunity, I can tell you it is way too much information to put in a thread and do any good.
 
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