Wind Forecast

RileyMitchum

RileyMitchum

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RileyMitchum
Hey guys, I will be trying to go on a short xc flight this Sunday (PWA - PNC -PWA) and am a little concerned about the winds. This is mainly due to the aviationweather.gov 's hourly forecast. My question is, just how accurate is this? And should I let the gusts concern me? I am comfortable flying in 13kt winds that they have, its the gusts near 20 that im not positive about. But, are the gusts something to worry about? Thanks!

Edit: Flight will be from 2pm to 5pm local.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=wc&w3=sfcwind&w3u=0&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=thunder&w8=rain&w9=snow&w10=fzg&w11=sleet&AheadHour=57&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=35.53000&textField2=-97.65000&site=all&unit=0&dd=0&bw=0
 
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3-5 days from now? It's barely more accurate than a dart board.

Take it much more seriously the day before or day of flight.

But remember, the wind does what it does, not what the forecast said it would do. You'll need a bigger picture than just a local wind forecast, and it still may do something unexpected.

I've launched on a cross-mountain trip with forecast calm winds and found almost 20 knots from the north when I got there. Made for a pretty bouncy ride.
 
If your concerned now, take those concerns seriously. If your concerned the day of the intended flight, drive instead, or don't go.

-John
 
Thanks for the responses guys! I definitely will not fly if I am concerned... I was mainly asking how accurate or trustworthy these forecasts are, and should I be worried at this point if the winds are a little over my limits. My guess is, is that it wont be as bad as the forecast says.
 
As others have said, a forecast 3 days out, you have better odds at the Vegas tables.

It's a personal limits (experience) and personal comfort thing.
How far off runway heading?

For many, a 13G20 is nothing, only a 7knt difference. And if you can't fly in 20knts, there are many days in the west that you'll be driving instead of flying.

15G30 and 60 degrees or better off runway heading, that would be an issue. Relative Azimuth to the runway makes a difference. And also if you are flying LSA or C-182, etc.
 
...everyone has their personal limits. Mine is about 15/20 if it's mostly headwind...in a hard crosswind a little less than that...I can handle the wind there...just the gusty crosswind that concerns me as a <100 hour pilot.

I took a XC trip with my bro-in-law out to the Texas coast to play some golf a few weeks ago. METAR was within my range but by the time we got there the wind was a steady 15 gusting to 25 about 15 degrees off the runway heading. It concerned me a little but I just went back to XW flying fundamentals and managed to make a pretty good landing...even my bro-in-law who was on his first GA flight said it was a great one under those circumstances.

That said, I was fully prepared to go-around at any time if it didn't feel right and would have tried a few times before giving up and heading home. I'm not too macho to say I can't do it.

That said, I learned to fly during the winter/spring in a very breezy central Texas hill country and my CFI had me landing on the off-runway on some pretty breezy days building my XW landing muscles. But, you don't exercise them...you lose them.

I went up with one of the other partners in our plane today to do a test flight after fixing a few things. He's a 10k+ hour retired airline captain. When we took off the winds were 18 gusting 28...pretty much down the pipe...swirling a little. By the time we did our 3rd and final landing the winds were 20 gusting 32 about 8 degrees off the runway. He put it down like it was nothing. :) Pretty impressive to watch...made that look too easy.

Anyway, don't know how many hours you have but at this point in my flying career I'm in the spot where I'm ready to push my personal limits a little. I've pretty much limited myself to flying only when it's clear and not gusty. I need to get a little more experience with lower ceilings (VFR of course) and days where it's not 100% ideal. In the next couple months I'm going to grab my CFI on some crappy VFR days and have him test me a little bit.

License to learn...
 
Do both airports have two runways.? If your landing in a 20-25 mile direct cross wind then the airline pilot may have not looked like sky king after all. In a tail dragger it would be hairy. If the wind is blowing 20, 30 miles an hour I'd drive. I never liked getting thrashed around in turbulence in a light aircraft. No enjoyment for me in hitting the roof, banging my head, etc. lousy way to spend the day in my book.
 
Ron Levy said:
...or fly with a CFI along to help expand your envelope of comfort.
Click to expand...

+1 to this.... And KenJr's story adds to that.

Keep your personal minimums... but slowly and safely build up your skill level.

And take this need for good information as a cue to expand your weather education. I had similar questions soon after I started expanding my flying range. www.AvWxWorkshops.com really helped to build out my knowledge of what's going in in the atmosphere, and where to find weather products, and how to interpret them and make a sound decision.

If you want to join, do so soon since Scott has announced he will be increasing his subscription rates after the first of the year.
 
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i don't know if your carrying passengers but also think about passenger comfort. i did a trip to atlantic city a few weeks back and winds were around 20 gusting to 30 with about an 8-10 knot x wind which i was comfortable with. long story short, it was very bumpy and one of my friends threw up while i was on final. while i knew i could handle the winds, i didn't think about my friend. always keep passenger comfort in mind!
 
I think to your question about how accurate those hourly winds forecasts are, I find them to be pretty close to correct most of the time but only the forecast within the last 24-36 hours. Of course that is in Colorado where the winds can be a lot more changeable than some other places in the states.
 
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