Will robots/AI replace human pilots?

Palmpilot said:
Which doesn't answer my question.
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Do not mean to be disrespectful, but your question is irrelevant. And my statement completely answers the question of the original poster.

Cheers
 
ralarcon said:
Do not mean to be disrespectful, but your question is irrelevant. And my statement completely answers the question of the original poster.

Cheers
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It's relevant to the claim that the human element will be removed.
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
btw....we did this back in the 90's.....and the flight was fully autonomous.
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The DC-X first flew, for 59 seconds, on 18 August 1993. It flew two more flights 11 September and 30 September, when funding ran out as a side effect of the winding down of the SDIO program. Apollo astronaut Pete Conrad was at the ground-based controls for some flights.

The next flight, 27 June 1994, suffered an inflight (minor) explosion, but the craft successfully executed an abort and autoland. Testing restarted after this damage was fixed, and three more flights were carried out on 16 May 1995, 12 June, and 7 July. On the last flight a hard landing cracked the aeroshell.

The first flight of the DC-XA test vehicle was made on 18 May 1996 and resulted in a minor fire when the deliberate "slow landing" resulted in overheating of the aeroshell.

Its next flight, on 7 July, proved to be its last. During testing, one of the LOX tanks had been cracked. When a landing strut failed to extend due to a disconnected hydraulic line, the DC-XA fell over and the tank leaked.


Sounds awesome, will they have a Business class configuration?
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
Automation has improved safety.
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It has. That's true, but automation has it's limits, foibles and problems, and the human is there to keep those in check. It's an effective system.

Checkout_my_Six said:
The next step to improving aviation safety is taking the human out of the loop....
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I think you think if you keep saying this people will take it as true. I posted 3 real-world issues on brand-new, right off the assembly line B-777s, with the latest and greatest system software (which I assumed was checked and rechecked) that is failing in operational use. Failures to the point that if the human had not been sitting up front would have been extremely dangerous, if not catastrophic.

Here's the post: Will robots/AI replace human pilots?

That is what automation failure looks like.

Checkout_my_Six said:
It's a progression that will lead to single pilot operations...
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Where is that single pilot going to get the experience to be the "single-pilot?"
 
Yes....I was part of the team. I remember it well...we gained lots of valuable experience with those demonstration flights. You're quite the Googler. :D

Today that technology is in operational use.....How bout that, twenty years later.
Sluggo63 said:
The DC-X first flew, for 59 seconds, on 18 August 1993. It flew two more flights 11 September and 30 September, when funding ran out as a side effect of the winding down of the SDIO program. Apollo astronaut Pete Conrad was at the ground-based controls for some flights.

The next flight, 27 June 1994, suffered an inflight (minor) explosion, but the craft successfully executed an abort and autoland. Testing restarted after this damage was fixed, and three more flights were carried out on 16 May 1995, 12 June, and 7 July. On the last flight a hard landing cracked the aeroshell.

The first flight of the DC-XA test vehicle was made on 18 May 1996 and resulted in a minor fire when the deliberate "slow landing" resulted in overheating of the aeroshell.

Its next flight, on 7 July, proved to be its last. During testing, one of the LOX tanks had been cracked. When a landing strut failed to extend due to a disconnected hydraulic line, the DC-XA fell over and the tank leaked.


Sounds awesome, will they have a Business class configuration?
Click to expand...
 
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Sluggo63 said:
The DC-X first flew, for 59 seconds, on 18 August 1993. It flew two more flights 11 September and 30 September, when funding ran out as a side effect of the winding down of the SDIO program. Apollo astronaut Pete Conrad was at the ground-based controls for some flights.

The next flight, 27 June 1994, suffered an inflight (minor) explosion, but the craft successfully executed an abort and autoland. Testing restarted after this damage was fixed, and three more flights were carried out on 16 May 1995, 12 June, and 7 July. On the last flight a hard landing cracked the aeroshell.

The first flight of the DC-XA test vehicle was made on 18 May 1996 and resulted in a minor fire when the deliberate "slow landing" resulted in overheating of the aeroshell.

Its next flight, on 7 July, proved to be its last. During testing, one of the LOX tanks had been cracked. When a landing strut failed to extend due to a disconnected hydraulic line, the DC-XA fell over and the tank leaked.


Sounds awesome, will they have a Business class configuration?
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You can slant the information any way you want , but this is the reality


Cheers
 
ralarcon said:
You can slant the information any way you want , but this is the reality


Cheers
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It's impressive. I agree. But this is a whole different argument than what we're talking about when we are talking about pilotless commercial airliners. I'm not an engineer, I'm a pilot. I think what you're missing is the piece that says the huge cost of turning the world's commercial aviation fleet and aviation infrastructure into one where pilotless air travel is viable, for even an incremental safety increase in an already outstandingly safe transportation system does not make sense. To further that point, I don't even think you'll get an safety increase. I think any increase in safety by removing the "pilot error" will be washed out by "automation error." I think the best it'll do is break even (and even if it moves the needle a hair towards 'safer' was it worth the tremendous cost?)
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
well....now we're getting down to brass tacks. :D
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Right, and I'm guessing you're not a commercial pilot. You're an engineer. I have thousands of hours flying large, multi-engine transport aircraft around the world. Everything from 1950s B-707s all the way to brand-new, shiny B-777s. I know first-hand the challenges of that environment, and how many times the automation has failed me. But because I or another pilot was sitting up front, all that happened at the end of the flight was a writeup in the aircraft logbook.
 
I suspect the conversion will be driven by cost (recurring, having to pay those pesky pilots) rather than safety. It may use safety as an argument, but cost will actually drive it.
 
Commercial pilot, yes...I even rolled a 777 twice.:D

A&P/IA....also an Aerospace Engineer. Been doing UAS, rocket, aircraft- safety/reliability work for +25 years and seen a lot of this stuff happen....not just google smart.
 
jsstevens said:
I suspect the conversion will be driven by cost (recurring, having to pay those pesky pilots) rather than safety. It may use safety as an argument, but cost will actually drive it.
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Amen....the technology exists....it just ain't cheap enough....yet.
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
Amen....the technology exists....it just ain't cheap enough....yet.
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And it will have problems. And people will die because of it. Perhaps less people than die with humans in the loop. Perhaps not. But airplanes will crash with full automation. In ways we don't yet expect.

John
 
jsstevens said:
And it will have problems. And people will die because of it. Perhaps less people than die with humans in the loop. Perhaps not. But airplanes will crash with full automation. In ways we don't yet expect.

John
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Yes there will be events....let's hope they are discovered with a man in the loop.
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
Yes there will be events....let's hope they are discovered with a man in the loop.
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I certainly hope so, by my experience says they won't all be. At some point the cost/benefit will cause the conversion. And there will still be situations we didn't anticipate-perhaps multiple simultaneous failures.
 
jsstevens said:
I certainly hope so, by my experience says they won't all be. At some point the cost/benefit will cause the conversion. And there will still be situations we didn't anticipate-perhaps multiple simultaneous failures.
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yes but....UAS technology is expanding and maturing rapidly. We will gain a tremendous amount of experience before we get there. And we've been doing it for several decades....with a few more till we get there. IMHO.

...and here's another. btw, Army systems are much more autonomous than AF's. :D
 
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jsstevens said:
I certainly hope so, by my experience says they won't all be. At some point the cost/benefit will cause the conversion. And there will still be situations we didn't anticipate-perhaps multiple simultaneous failures.
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As you said, cost is a factor , technology is a factor, also general flying public acceptance will be a factor, what is not in doubt is whether it will happen or not. It will happen , eventually.

Cheers
 
jsstevens said:
And it will have problems. And people will die because of it. Perhaps less people than die with humans in the loop. Perhaps not. But airplanes will crash with full automation. In ways we don't yet expect.

John
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think.....ground/in air programmable automated autopilot.....press buttons to program flight, taxi, take-off....landing....taxi....press button to shut down :D
 
AI in the cockpit is not an auto-pilot or a radio-based landing system. You are talking about an intelligence that exceeds humans and has machine level reflexes. AI will not just replace human pilots and ATC but corp CEOs, medical doctors, researchers, lawyers, and even scientists. We already have autonomous combat jets, helos, tanks and soon infrantry soldiers. In twenty years half of all jobs now done by humans will be being done by machines.
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
think.....ground/in air programmable automated autopilot.....press buttons to program flight, taxi, take-off....landing....taxi....press button to shut down :D
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Let me predict, now , you will be able to step into a fully autonomous vehicle at a space port on Earth, it will fly you to Mars Earth colony, and you will be able to step off at Mars Space Port. And then go on with your business there. It will eventually happen. I know some people don't see it, but it will happen.

Cheers
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
yes, they have....Human factors is still a problem. :D
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Human factors in the engineering and maintenance process perhaps. I suppose you can make the argument that all failures are human factors since we conceive, design, build and maintain the machines. So with that assertion, what I'm saying will happen-with fully automated operations-is that the designers, builders and maintainers will miss something and people will die. Whether you consider that the fault of the automation or people is up to you. Many computers mess things up doing exactly what they were told, exactly how they were designed to operate.

John
 
jsstevens said:
Human factors in the engineering and maintenance process perhaps. I suppose you can make the argument that all failures are human factors since we conceive, design, build and maintain the machines. So with that assertion, what I'm saying will happen-with fully automated operations-is that the designers, builders and maintainers will miss something and people will die. Whether you consider that the fault of the automation or people is up to you. Many computers mess things up doing exactly what they were told, exactly how they were designed to operate.

John
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No human endeavor is flawless or faultless, however mechanical and software problems can be managed to the point that the risk is acceptable. Where is that point will be worked out by society.

Cheers
 
ralarcon said:
No human endeavor is flawless or faultless, however mechanical and software problems can be managed to the point that the risk is acceptable. Where is that point will be worked out by society.

Cheers
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I agree. I'm just pointing out that the level is not 0.
 
jsstevens said:
Human factors in the engineering and maintenance process perhaps. I suppose you can make the argument that all failures are human factors since we conceive, design, build and maintain the machines. So with that assertion, what I'm saying will happen-with fully automated operations-is that the designers, builders and maintainers will miss something and people will die. Whether you consider that the fault of the automation or people is up to you. Many computers mess things up doing exactly what they were told, exactly how they were designed to operate.

John
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no....18 YO issues. Young folks do things irresponsibly sometimes...not following check lists....and better/additional training is a poor solution to risk mitigation. o_O

The theme is automation and there were many improvement projects that provided automation design solutions as risk mitigations.
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
no....18 YO issues. Young folks do things irresponsibly sometimes...not following check lists....and better/additional training is a poor solution to risk mitigation. o_O

The theme is automation and there were many improvement projects that provided automation design solutions as risk mitigations.
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Well, sure. 18 YO operating incorrectly is a problem. As is 58 YO operating incorrectly (or any other age).

In keeping with the theme: My assertion is that a completely automated flight system for passenger aircraft, operated as designed, will have a failure that results in death. It will be very rare (by the time the public accepts flying in automated aircraft). It may be less frequent than the current human controlled variants (or it may not). But it will happen. (And then we will learn something we didn't know, even if it is "I never thought those two things would ever happen at the same time.")

John
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
well....now we're getting down to brass tacks. :D
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My experience as an engineer tells me that disregarding the experiences of people who actually use a technology day in and day out is very unwise.
 
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ralarcon said:
As you said, cost is a factor , technology is a factor, also general flying public acceptance will be a factor, what is not in doubt is whether it will happen or not. It will happen , eventually.

Cheers
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The fact that you don't doubt it does not mean that it is not in doubt.
 
jsstevens said:
Well, sure. 18 YO operating incorrectly is a problem. As is 58 YO operating incorrectly (or any other age).

In keeping with the theme: My assertion is that a completely automated flight system for passenger aircraft, operated as designed, will have a failure that results in death. It will be very rare (by the time the public accepts flying in automated aircraft). It may be less frequent than the current human controlled variants (or it may not). But it will happen. (And then we will learn something we didn't know, even if it is "I never thought those two things would ever happen at the same time.")

John
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you are correct John......it's just a matter of time....I'm yet hopeful it's years and billions of air miles later. :yes:
 
nj-pilot said:
Reading through another post about someone who aspires to be a commercial pilot, and I have to wonder whether that will even be a profession in 15 or 20 years. If you think about driverless car technology and our already-high utilization of the auto-pilot in commercial aviation, am I insane to think that it's foreseeable in our lives that human pilots will become obsolete?

Related story here, though I'm sure there are many others.
I know that trucking and shipping carriers are exploring this as well.
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Regardless of the technology, I don't think anyone will launch a plane full of people without humans in the cockpit. $h!t breaks and when that happens, people have to step in.
 
SbestCFII said:
Regardless of the technology, I don't think anyone will launch a plane full of people without humans in the cockpit. $h!t breaks and when that happens, people have to step in.
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Yup...just like driverless trains with hundreds onboard.
 
"There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will." - Albert Einstein, 1932

"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." - Western Union internal memo, 1876

"Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia." - Dr. Dionysius Lardner, 1830

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." - Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

"The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad." - Henry Ford's lawyer told not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903

"No, it will make war impossible." - -Hiram Maxim, inventor of the machine gun

"There will never be a bigger plane built." - - A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 247

A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” — New York Times, 1936
 
jsstevens said:
I suspect the conversion will be driven by cost (recurring, having to pay those pesky pilots) rather than safety. It may use safety as an argument, but cost will actually drive it.
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Checkout_my_Six said:
Amen....the technology exists....it just ain't cheap enough....yet.
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May never be... I don't know any teams of engineers who'll work as cheap as pilots. :)
 
denverpilot said:
May never be... I don't know any teams of engineers who'll work as cheap as pilots. :)
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But the pitch is the engineers work once for a whole bunch of flights while the pilots work every one...:)
 
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