Will General Aviation Survive
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midcap
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That 530 is going to be awesome!
FormerHangie
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Expensive and tough to come by in these parts.
Sinistar
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With the exception of a aviation career - why would anyone under 30yrs old even want to fly?
Case 1: 25yr old is interested in a motorcycle: Takes a easy written test, gets a permit, walks into the HD dealerships and rides out on that new Street Glide with HD helment and HD Jacket @ $20K financed. Instant gratification. Insurance under $400 a year, gas is cheap, easy to store, looks cool and even has place to plug in the iPhone. And his buddies can do the same.
Case 2: 25yr old wants a boat: Goes to dealership, pulls away with a new boat and life jackets @ 60K financed. They're at the lake that afternoon boating, drinking and meeting babes. Storage and slip isn't cheap but he figures it out. His buddies can join him. And he can plug in his iPhone.
Case 3: 25yr old wants to fly: Walks up to the FBO. Learns it will cost him $10K...$16K just to get his PPL. Finds out it might take months. Asks about the cost to rent a plane or buy a plane and goes "WTF". Walks away. Way easier to watch YouTube videos. Notice, they never even knew about the ADS-B out mandate, let alone annuals, avionics, etc.
I am now 50 and will be starting lessons this spring. In the 1970's (I was in my teen's) planes were fascinating- still are!! Back then, primarily because I had never been on one. And back then it seemed like anyone who had a decent job could at least get into it and afford it. Now, the barrier is so high.
We just bought a old 182P. We are quite aware of all the costs. The engine rebuild is such a intimidating cost that that figure alone will prevent so many of these older planes from being rebuilt. Even if that 25yr old kid finds a deal on a 172 for $16K, once he realizes the engine rebuild will run like $30K and another $5K for ADS-B out I think he will go back to that motorcycle or boat. It sucks. Hopefully the medical reform along with boomers retiring will keep some of the older planes flying. But once they are decrepit, won't the fleet eventually be reduced to clubs and rentals if all used planes are over $150K?
Case 1: 25yr old is interested in a motorcycle: Takes a easy written test, gets a permit, walks into the HD dealerships and rides out on that new Street Glide with HD helment and HD Jacket @ $20K financed. Instant gratification. Insurance under $400 a year, gas is cheap, easy to store, looks cool and even has place to plug in the iPhone. And his buddies can do the same.
Case 2: 25yr old wants a boat: Goes to dealership, pulls away with a new boat and life jackets @ 60K financed. They're at the lake that afternoon boating, drinking and meeting babes. Storage and slip isn't cheap but he figures it out. His buddies can join him. And he can plug in his iPhone.
Case 3: 25yr old wants to fly: Walks up to the FBO. Learns it will cost him $10K...$16K just to get his PPL. Finds out it might take months. Asks about the cost to rent a plane or buy a plane and goes "WTF". Walks away. Way easier to watch YouTube videos. Notice, they never even knew about the ADS-B out mandate, let alone annuals, avionics, etc.
I am now 50 and will be starting lessons this spring. In the 1970's (I was in my teen's) planes were fascinating- still are!! Back then, primarily because I had never been on one. And back then it seemed like anyone who had a decent job could at least get into it and afford it. Now, the barrier is so high.
We just bought a old 182P. We are quite aware of all the costs. The engine rebuild is such a intimidating cost that that figure alone will prevent so many of these older planes from being rebuilt. Even if that 25yr old kid finds a deal on a 172 for $16K, once he realizes the engine rebuild will run like $30K and another $5K for ADS-B out I think he will go back to that motorcycle or boat. It sucks. Hopefully the medical reform along with boomers retiring will keep some of the older planes flying. But once they are decrepit, won't the fleet eventually be reduced to clubs and rentals if all used planes are over $150K?
Cirrus Light
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I hope it does. It needs to reform, a lot, mostly with the FAA. I don't want it to die, but I want it to realize that it needs to change, and sometimes it takes a big kick for that to happen. Some pilots around where I live are pretty convinced the main reason the costs are so insane is that airplane manufacturers are too often held responsible if there's an accident, so they need to recoup costs from lawsuits.
Do we add more regulations to drivers' licenses every time a fatal car crash happens? Just imagine!
I sure hope so! If the FAA can get the political whacking they need without GA dying, all the better. Maybe it'll even help save GA. I mean, there's a depression epidemic in the US but the FAA says anyone who has it (which really means - anyone who takes anything for it or dares to report it) isn't allowed to fly.
To me, that's just deeply worrying about professional pilots whose livelihoods depend on their licenses. Who of them in their right mind would ever seek help if they need it if their reward for saying something about it is getting their livelihood revoked?
To say nothing of the nonsense that is the SLA license medical requirements - a drivers license is fine, unless you've attempted a medical and it was revoked, then you can't. So basically, just go sport and don't try a full medical if you're not "The Right Stuff" for a class III. It's a double standard.
So basically, I just mean to echo what SkyHog wrote:
"Those who would sell freedom for a little security deserve neither freedom nor security". This disgusts me about modern attitudes. I'm not generally a pessimistic or upset person, but this is one of the things I really despise - this attitude that you can't, or shouldn't, do daring things that require good judgement and skill.
I honestly believe Elon Musk will succeed in colonizing Mars, and this is a huge reason why I think it's necessary for our human species/civilization. We need a place where this attitude can be reborn and live as it needs to.
The difference being an obtrusive amount of regulation, looking through all your medical history with threats of federal prison if you miss something on the forms (though fortunately most the time they don't bother - but not because they don't have the power to send it to a council of people who decide if you go on trial for that), and a tremendous amount of money and ridiculous amount of regulations.
But boating is so much simpler. Follow those lights when entering or leaving a harbor, restrict speeds in certain areas, the law of navigation - I could get a boating license along with my drivers' in my High School Drivers' Ed class. Try doing that with a pilots' license.
At least with the SCUBA license I didn't have a council of people deciding if a year of a medication some years ago should keep me from ever diving.
"From the trenches" so to speak, as someone just coming into piloting who's been deeply dreaming of and burning to do it since high school, SkyHog was absolutely correct. The only obstacle - and one that might be a killing one - to my flying, at least, is a set of rules made up by people who want to sell some of your favorite freedoms for a miniscule ounce of safety - all the while believing they're doing you a favor by doing it, since obviously they are better suited to make decisions for your life than you are.
Do we add more regulations to drivers' licenses every time a fatal car crash happens? Just imagine!
I sure hope so! If the FAA can get the political whacking they need without GA dying, all the better. Maybe it'll even help save GA. I mean, there's a depression epidemic in the US but the FAA says anyone who has it (which really means - anyone who takes anything for it or dares to report it) isn't allowed to fly.
To me, that's just deeply worrying about professional pilots whose livelihoods depend on their licenses. Who of them in their right mind would ever seek help if they need it if their reward for saying something about it is getting their livelihood revoked?
To say nothing of the nonsense that is the SLA license medical requirements - a drivers license is fine, unless you've attempted a medical and it was revoked, then you can't. So basically, just go sport and don't try a full medical if you're not "The Right Stuff" for a class III. It's a double standard.
So basically, I just mean to echo what SkyHog wrote:
"Those who would sell freedom for a little security deserve neither freedom nor security". This disgusts me about modern attitudes. I'm not generally a pessimistic or upset person, but this is one of the things I really despise - this attitude that you can't, or shouldn't, do daring things that require good judgement and skill.
I honestly believe Elon Musk will succeed in colonizing Mars, and this is a huge reason why I think it's necessary for our human species/civilization. We need a place where this attitude can be reborn and live as it needs to.
The difference being an obtrusive amount of regulation, looking through all your medical history with threats of federal prison if you miss something on the forms (though fortunately most the time they don't bother - but not because they don't have the power to send it to a council of people who decide if you go on trial for that), and a tremendous amount of money and ridiculous amount of regulations.
But boating is so much simpler. Follow those lights when entering or leaving a harbor, restrict speeds in certain areas, the law of navigation - I could get a boating license along with my drivers' in my High School Drivers' Ed class. Try doing that with a pilots' license.
At least with the SCUBA license I didn't have a council of people deciding if a year of a medication some years ago should keep me from ever diving.
"From the trenches" so to speak, as someone just coming into piloting who's been deeply dreaming of and burning to do it since high school, SkyHog was absolutely correct. The only obstacle - and one that might be a killing one - to my flying, at least, is a set of rules made up by people who want to sell some of your favorite freedoms for a miniscule ounce of safety - all the while believing they're doing you a favor by doing it, since obviously they are better suited to make decisions for your life than you are.
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FormerHangie
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We bought a new boat last year, and we keep it in dry stack storage, so it's not like we've cheaped out. The boat is a 2015 Yamaha 212SS, with two 180 hp jet drives. It seats nine comfortably. The boat was $43,000, and dry stack storage is $2800 per year, a little more than what a tiedown goes for around here and just about half of what a hangar rents for, if you can find one. Maintenance is $200 per year and insurance is $300. It came with a four year warranty, we didn't need it last year, and my history with boats indicates it won't need much in repairs. Here's what it looks like:
Now, compare that to what you'd get for the same money in an airplane. If wanted an airplane with a mid time engine, I'd probably be looking at a 40 year old Cessna or Piper with an 0-320, original radios, and meh interior and paint.
I got to thinking about what it would take if I wanted to get back into power flying. I'd have to find flight school near my office if I wanted to fly more than once a week. In my case, that would be PDK, and it's not a cheap place to fly, a 172 rents for $155 per hour and instruction is an additional $70. I could wind up spending $15,000 inclusive, and I'd be really pressed to find the time. When I originally got my PP I was single and had a lot of schedule flexibility, that's no longer the case. Flying is a tough nut to crack for a lot of people.
Flying was expensive back at its peak as well. What's changed is there aren't as many people who think it's a neat thing to do.
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James331
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Lolz, if you think driving around in your Yamaha is as fun as flying, well as far as your flying goes, you're not doing it right.
I debated getting or bulding up a big motor V haul, but even if I got the thing to do 90kts, it's still quite boring compared to flying my floatplane around.
Even a little Aeronca Champ for less than that boat, get into backcountry flying and its miles more fun.
But yeah, it requires a little more investment of time, well so does getting the education and training for a good job, both are worth it.
You want instant gratification, well sorry ain't no such thing, but you could get a job working in some mindless store in a mall after highschool and finance a jet ski, yeeeeeehaw!
I debated getting or bulding up a big motor V haul, but even if I got the thing to do 90kts, it's still quite boring compared to flying my floatplane around.
Even a little Aeronca Champ for less than that boat, get into backcountry flying and its miles more fun.
But yeah, it requires a little more investment of time, well so does getting the education and training for a good job, both are worth it.
You want instant gratification, well sorry ain't no such thing, but you could get a job working in some mindless store in a mall after highschool and finance a jet ski, yeeeeeehaw!
Sinistar
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Doesn't that pretty much sum it all up.
Amen!
FormerHangie
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There's not much backcountry flying to be had around here. It's all hills and trees. Plus I can take the whole family in the boat, they're not much interested in flying. All three have flown in (under?) a hang glider, which they all enjoyed, but have no desire to do again. The only way they'd get into a GA plane was for one ride, after which they'd check it off of the list and be done with it, or if it was to go somewhere interesting, provided the weather was perfect. The first bump or other adversity my wife would want to land immediately and would never fly again.
The boat is for family time. I don't know if you have children, but once they start driving you start losing contact with them. The boat gives us something to do as a family. The fun part of a boat like ours is to use it to get in the water. I like to wakeboard, my wife and daughters and their friends ride an inflatable. When my wife is out, we try to keep things nice and smooth, but a good teenager ride looks like this:
FloridaPilot
Pattern Altitude
What would happen if the owner would sell sections of the land so people can build there own hangars? sounds like a reasonable option.
Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it. IF GA goes down all of those empty airports would probably turn into shopping malls or residential property, the developers would fight hard for that available land and once again something as awesome as flying would be taken away from us.
Elon Musk among others are pushing hard for the colonization of Mars so they can make Earth a dumping ground. Where are all of those old batteries in the Teslas going to go in say 20 years?
FloridaPilot
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paflyer
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You an IA?
James331
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Nope.
But show me where it says a AP can't remove and install a transponder, not talking about testing it, just talking about turning the wrenches.
FloridaPilot
Pattern Altitude
Dr. O
Pattern Altitude
Well, interesting thread. Not as much pushing and shoving in the boys room as we normally get from the eternally juvenile on here.
We need to take a broader look than just what an airplane costs, yadda yadda. Let's assume that flying has always been as expensive as it is now, maybe even a bit more.
So, why do we see a decline in the hours flown by small GA? (I'm cutting out the business guys in their turbines, they are not really GA. They are the next step up.)
For one, people live higher on the hog today. They have more disposable income and they spend it - just not on GA.
(I'm not going into what constitutes 'middle class' as that is a whole nother discussion)
I flew in the mid 50's
-when I was too poor to even dream of being "middle class".
I think about what I had then and it wasn't much. An old wood rowboat, a B&W TV in the living room, a 1950 Ford Coupe that had seen better days, a wife and child, and that was it. So every spare dollar I had after food and shelter could go to airplanes (and mostly did)
I fly today
- a little better off financially.
I am supporting same wife, multiple vehicles, 6 smart phones, 2 internet subscriptions, a Dish subscription, a half dozen (or more) PC's scattered about here and there, a couple of iPads, a couple of expensive cameras, a couple of boats (one very nice), a beach cottage in Florida, and a clapped out old Apache (same one for 20+ years)
Now, if I were that mythical middle class person, after I covered the cost of everything up through the beach cabin, there is no way in hell I could afford to take flying lessons.
And if I were the mythical middle class person likely the mix would drop the beach cabin and include a couple of SeaDoo, and a couple of SkiDoo, and a bowling league or two, yadda yadda.
The point is that the person living a "middle class" life today has voluntarily opted out of affording to fly. His choice, his life (shrug)
And the middle class life today easily costs twice (in equal dollars) what it did in the 50's. (if not three times)
dr o
We need to take a broader look than just what an airplane costs, yadda yadda. Let's assume that flying has always been as expensive as it is now, maybe even a bit more.
So, why do we see a decline in the hours flown by small GA? (I'm cutting out the business guys in their turbines, they are not really GA. They are the next step up.)
For one, people live higher on the hog today. They have more disposable income and they spend it - just not on GA.
(I'm not going into what constitutes 'middle class' as that is a whole nother discussion)
I flew in the mid 50's
-when I was too poor to even dream of being "middle class".
I think about what I had then and it wasn't much. An old wood rowboat, a B&W TV in the living room, a 1950 Ford Coupe that had seen better days, a wife and child, and that was it. So every spare dollar I had after food and shelter could go to airplanes (and mostly did)
I fly today
- a little better off financially.
I am supporting same wife, multiple vehicles, 6 smart phones, 2 internet subscriptions, a Dish subscription, a half dozen (or more) PC's scattered about here and there, a couple of iPads, a couple of expensive cameras, a couple of boats (one very nice), a beach cottage in Florida, and a clapped out old Apache (same one for 20+ years)
Now, if I were that mythical middle class person, after I covered the cost of everything up through the beach cabin, there is no way in hell I could afford to take flying lessons.
And if I were the mythical middle class person likely the mix would drop the beach cabin and include a couple of SeaDoo, and a couple of SkiDoo, and a bowling league or two, yadda yadda.
The point is that the person living a "middle class" life today has voluntarily opted out of affording to fly. His choice, his life (shrug)
And the middle class life today easily costs twice (in equal dollars) what it did in the 50's. (if not three times)
dr o
paflyer
Final Approach
I never said that. I am saying Joe Owner can't do that. Furthermore, you need an "official" signoff on W/B after doing that, and before flying it anywhere.
James331
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Which was EXACTLY what I said, and if the AP is willing the owner is more than able to help lend a hand.
paflyer
Final Approach
I don't know if a generic AP is allowed by FAA to wire-in avionics, or even install plug-n-play replacements, at least not without an avionics tech's signoff, which would probably only occur is the tech is confident in the AP's abilities and technique. Ex, I asked my IA if he could move my Mode C transponder to a different location in the rack, and he said he's not qualified/certificated to do that.
Bottom line is certified avionics permanently installed in a certificated aircraft needs to be done by a certificated avionics guy- unless you work with a bunch of pencil-whippers who don't care.
Checkout_my_Six
Touchdown! Greaser!
Your IA can move or install anything in an airframe.....he just might not be able to return it to service.
James331
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That.
Anyone can install the dang thing, just have to make a trip to the avionic$ shop to get the test done, nothing pencil whipped about that, that's just called spending your money wisely.
paflyer
Final Approach
YOU CAN"T LEGALLY FLY IT THERE.
Checkout_my_Six
Touchdown! Greaser!
you can if you mark it inop (place a removable sticky in the logs)....then the shop can return it to service.
the regs allow for you to operate your aircraft with an inop transponder so long as you are transporting your aircraft to repair facility.
James331
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midcap
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jkaduk
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Well in my case and most pilots I know it was because when I was a kid I went for a small airplane ride and knew instantly that is was something I loved.
I buy the it's too expensive argument but not the it's too hard one. There's lots of examples of hobbies that are hard to learn but plenty of young people do them. I play the guitar. It's hard. Yet there's no shortage of amateur musicians.
Bonchie
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Why? Because they want to fly, maybe? There are still those out there. I got my PPL and Instrument under 30.
And while I can respect these kinds of comparisons, the exaggerations get me. It does not cost 16k to get a PPL and if it does, find a new school. 10k-11k is the high end and that's if you take 60 hours. If you pay 16k, you are either renting a Cirrus or getting ripped off. Three years ago, in the D.C. area, it cost me $7500 at 44 hours with a part 61 school. And there were several clubs I later found out I could've gotten it done even cheaper at.
And an engine overhaul for a 172 is nowhere hear 30k. My 182P with a 470u doesn't even cost quite that.
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hindsight2020
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Remember, this avocation is full of snobs. People consider IRAN and on-condition maintenance practices indicative of people who "don't belong". If it's not retail firewall forward for everything, you're an unwashed heathen, so costs are always quoted at the top end as normative.
Btw, your training costs are in line with what I've seen in part 61 for a quick learner, inflation adjusted for what it cost me in the year 2000 (4AMU plus headsets and checkride fee) right at 40-45 hours.
Matt Brasher
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By the sound of it, flight schools are killing the hobby. I don't even fully understand what they do to justify their cost, or even their existence. The CFI does all the work, and you can get a VERY good, experienced CFI for half the price by simply employing him directly.
paflyer
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One that was just hardwired to the aircraft's power bus by a non-certificated person?
James331
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And a AP isn't "certified"
paflyer
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Not to work on avionics AFAIK. And you also said that "anyone" could install it. I have an MSEE and I can't legally touch the stuff, even though I could design it from a clean sheet of paper.
James331
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paflyer
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Well somewhere along the line James implied that anyone including himself could legally install avionics and then fly the A/C to some other place for a signoff.
This thread https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/community/threads/a-p-guys-what-avionics-can-you-touch.58431/ seems to support an AP's being legal to make installations. Don't know if an IA also needs to sign it off.
bluerooster
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shorty
A
A&P can do it just fine. No need for an avionix shop.
bluerooster
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I need a hangar, there's a bazillion year waiting list. We have a taxiway to nowhere, with plenty of land on both sides to build hangars.
I decided to look into a land-lease, and build a row of Ts keeping one for myself, and renting the others out to cover the loan payment.
It's ~$300k for the building, plus site work, ~$25k, and then in 10 years it goes to the airport, and I no-longer own it. So, I gotta front the cash, recoup my investment in 10 years, then start paying rent to the airport.
Anyway, I can't rent the hangars for enough to cover the loan payment. The market won't bear that price. And I'm not really interested in giving away $325k.
dell30rb
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bnt83
Final Approach
My log entry will read a lot like this:
"Removed KT76A transponder p/n ______ s/n_________and installed _____________ p/n ___________ s/n___________ IAW ___________, see next log entry for required 91.411 & 91.413 inspections. Weight & Balance and Equipment List was updated. Reference FAA form 337 dated ______. Signed me __________A&P IA".
Next log entry will be from CRS that did the inspections.
"Removed KT76A transponder p/n ______ s/n_________and installed _____________ p/n ___________ s/n___________ IAW ___________, see next log entry for required 91.411 & 91.413 inspections. Weight & Balance and Equipment List was updated. Reference FAA form 337 dated ______. Signed me __________A&P IA".
Next log entry will be from CRS that did the inspections.
bnt83
Final Approach
I've noticed that too. I think it could be related to his location and lack of seeing the sun.
dell30rb
Final Approach
You may have a point. I am on one or two boating/fishing forums and its been well documented that members are more pessimistic and argumentative in the off season.