Why all the crashes? (long)

As a side note to the TC report above, I know that the Blue Angels and Snowbirds (and, I'm reasonably certain, also the Thunderbirds) have dedicated safety observers on the ground during all demos. In fact, the Snowbirds' safety observer is a dedicated position -- no job in the team other than that. Those observers are in position and on frequency to make any necessary call if they see anything going wrong. It appears the MoD team did not have such a ground observer who might have been able to help in this situation.
 
Discipline. or,
NO discipline.

I think it's more a case of margin or NO margin.

An areobatic flight (or non-areobatic for that matter) will always entail risk. If you manage the risk correctly you create a margin of safety where if things DO go TU you still have a chance to survive. The MofD team designed a set of maneuvers that had little margin for error and paid the price when an error occured.
They were not the first to do this and won't be the last.
Military teams are not exempt from overstepping the safety margins built into their displays dispite the training they receive and the equipment they fly. If they were there would still be one F-16 and one FA-18 in inventory today that are not. But I don't call them stupid. They just used up whatever safety margin they had.

When I fly acro I wear my parachute even though I don't legally have to flying solo. I practice (on the ground) getting out of the belts and getting out of the airplane. No Reg says I have to but I do. I fly high if I'm doing maneuvers I haven't done before. All these things give me a margin for error should Murphy come knocking.

I see these planes at airshows that weigh 900lbs with 400HP pop off the ground and hover at 25'agl. No lift from the wings...it's all engine. And no margin for error. If the engine failed there's nowhere to go. But it's done all the time now. Someday one will crash like that and everyone will say how stupid it was. But for now it's grand entertainment.
Someone will be the first to die during a Red Bull Race. And those that are left will modify how they fly and go on. Or not.

JMPO and YMMV

Chris
 
I think it's more a case of margin or NO margin.

Chris


I think the discipline part is to make sure the manuvers have margin and are performed consistently. A disciplined act would have had this, along with ways to abort if things went wrong.

MoD didn't have this.


Trapper John
 
I have been thinking a lot about what seems like a high mortality rate in the air show circuit this year -- and other related aerobatics musings. I talked at great lengths with some of the best aerobatic pilots in the world last week, and I just wanted to post some observations. There is, in fact, a specific airplane I fear may be next.

Look at the specifics of the accidents all you want, but there are a few issues I keep coming back to. The experienced people get bitten by one, the less experienced get bitten by another. Maybe there’s some overlap, but then again, maybe not.

The first observation is that aerobatics is an extreme sport, so “safety” is something of an illusion. Yes, the number of aerobatic fatalities has declined year to year in recent history. But I fear that trend may stop or even reverse itself. Top-end aerobatic airplanes are supremely capable things, and only a small percentage of pilots in the world can use their full capabilities. That being the case, I think it’s also the case that many pilots get in over their head attempting to best the airplane. Instead, it bests them.

Aerobatic training is hard to come by, and those that provide it typically stack maneuvers on top of maneuvers to give the student full exposure to the envelope covered by the course. I think many, many students drink from the firehose and then promptly get themselves into trouble when they misapply what they learned or leave out a crucial step. It calls to mind a pilot in a Pitts who botched a hammerhead and went into an inverted spin. She stomped anti spin rudder, forgetting that when inverted it was pro-spin rudder.

One of the truly difficult parts of aerobatics is knowing when you’re qualified to start experimenting with new maneuvers on your own. It’s unrealistic to say “never,” so what you’re left with is the need to be able to get yourself out of jams. That means advanced spin training – and not just a handful of one-turn spins from an intentional upright stall. Before tackling aerobatics, you should be confident you can recover the airplane from any combination of attitude and airspeed. Yet in a goal-oriented training program in which the instructor (or student) aims to cover 15 maneuvers in 10 flights, spins get the short shrift.

Finally, when it comes to air shows, the pilots are being victimized by the desensitization of the crowd to aerobatics – which leads to ever more extreme shows. One old, bold air show pilot said he tried to never leave himself without an out. Then he got a new airplane and inserted a new maneuver that did not have an out. One mechanical hiccup and the airplane crashed. He survived, but retired from air show flying.

Some existing acts – and I put Jimmy Franklin’s and Bobby Younkin’s show into this category – use maneuvers that, essentially, have no outs. In the case of the Masters of Disaster, a look at the old promotional video on the web site shows them going belly-to-belly twice. They basically ran the act as a combat engagement, yet they lost sight of the fundamental rule of “lose sight, lose fight.” And they joked about their close calls after the shows, according to one person I talked to. Another current act operates at high angles of attack and low airspeed at a very, very low altitude. Again, no out. This pilot is living on borrowed time. Is the public demanding this extremism? Look at the crowds that show up for the Red Bull races and you have your answer.

This rambles a bit more than I’d like, but I’m trying to get my arms around this thing as well. Air show flying (and aerobatics in general) is certainly more dangerous than knocking around the pattern on a calm sunny morning. And when you’re learning – which can be said about pretty much EVERY aerobatic pilot – resist the temptation to take shortcuts or push yourself at an uncomfortable pace.

“It’s hard. Of course it’s hard. If it was easy everyone would do it.” – Tom Hanks in “A League of Their Own”

Interesting piece and some pertinent comment.

There is much more to this issue of course, but you have touched on aspects of the issue that are in play at different intensity throughout the industry.
I have been involved directly and indirectly with the flight safety issues of the demonstration and display flying community for over fifty years and I can tell you the problem is so complex, so diverse, that there is no magic bullet that will fix it.
I am at this moment involved in an international workshop made up of a wide cross section of present and past display pilots. We are concentrating primarily on the human factors issue as it relates to air show accidents.
It is difficult work. We are brainstorming ways to make the community safer through better and improved communication.

I highly suggest that anyone interested in the work we are doing purchase and read cover to cover the fine book on Air Show accidents and display flying written by the founder of our group; Gen Des Barker of the South African AF.
The book is "Zero Error Margin".

Because the book is for sale, and to avoid any spamming violations on the forum, I will be glad to supply any needed information on the book if contacted by back channel email.

Dudley Henriques
President Emeritus
International Fighter Pilots Fellowship
 
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Re: MoD... I don't know much about them, but one can say they lived up to their name...
 
The most dangerous (at least to my eyes) performance I've seen is John Mohr in his stock Stearman.


Wow. After seeing that, I may just have to agree with you.
 
<snip>

IMPO some of the current Top acts cater to the Holy Sh*t aspect of Airshows with the abrupt manuevers and noise in their 400HP 10 G+/- wizzy-buzzers. But watch a show line. While the act is really low just after takeoff the crowd looks. After that they mill away to get a Coke. They don't understand it. They don't care about the skill required. The last airplane went lower. It was cooler. It made the same amount of noise. They aren't pilots so they don't know or care. I myself can't face more than 3 Extra/Edge/MX? routines in one airshow. But a Beatch-18 with both engines streaning smoke? I'm there. So is the Crowd! It's different!!

<snip>

I recently learned the same thing. Cap'n Jack and I were at an airshow in Omaha and during the third Extra routine I found myself wanting to go hang in the shade and grab a drink. I think I pretty much said the same to him and we wandered off. Even to me it all seems to pretty much run together after a while. That's probably part of the problem for the performers. What can you do that doesn't seem to everybody to be what the last guy just did?
 
^^^ What he said. I started to judge the routines rather than appreciate the flying.
 
IMHO, if you want to reduce the accident rate at air shows, get rid of the surface-level waiver.

The level 1 waiver isn't the problem. In fact, many pilots including myself advocate the level 1 waiver as an asset. Working a hard deck during a display places one more tasking into the multi task mix for the pilot. It adds to the complexity of the visual cues equation through the high gate and complicates the energy management problem.
Display pilots are accustomed to the inverted sight cue going through a high gate where the go/no go decision has to be made.
Working a hard deck adds the altimeter to the tasking problem at the bottom and can cause unnecessary issues.
 
I couldn't even begin to speculate on why there are people getting killed in air shows, but I agree with Dudley in that the majority are due to human factors rather than mechanical issues. As far as tumbles go, they are not violent maneuvers. In fact, if you watch an airshow routine, most are done at the top of a figure, and at high altitude and low energy. (probably should not be doing these on a regular basis with a metal prop, since it puts a big strain on the crank, especially in the six cylinder engines).The G load is actually quite low (again, usually negative), although they can be disorienting. Most are variants of outside snap roll inputs. They are nowhere near as punishing as outside snaps at speed.

Regarding G induced loss of consciousness (gloc), this is something usually seen more with high power fighters that can sustain a high g load, since most of the airshow planes lose energy very fast. Yes, they can be loaded to 8 or more G, but they do not have the smash to do this continuously, as in an F-16. It can take 30-75 seconds to recover, but even longer to become really functional to actually fly a plane. We did 9G for 30 seconds in a centrifuge, and it was not a lot of fun. The G loading came up at around 6G per second, so going from around 1.5G to 9 took less than two seconds. It is much less strenuous flying acro in terms of the G loading.
 
Keep in mind that gLOC can result not only from sustained high g but also from rapid onset of g-loading even at g-loads which would not cause gLOC if sustained. The rate of onset is critical, and if the g-load increases too quickly, you can black out just from the onset, not the final load. Thus, a big snatch rather than smooth pull makes a critical and potentially lethal difference.
 
Now you have to think about it a different way. Its very true that planes especially aerobatic planes can often handle more than the pilot can. But the problem with the view you have is all in the media. It is huge news when any plane crashes any time. However the drive to the airport is significantly more dangerous its not news at all if a deadly crash occurs in a car. There is no stopping the chance of death in ANY vehicle that moves more than 20 MPH. In my opinion it is MUCH MUCH safer to go into steep dives rather than simply driving a car withing a few feet-inches of another several ton hunk of steel. There is simply no preventing death in vehicles especially when you do risky things whether it is talking on a cell phone while driving or whether it is speeding toward the earth at over 150 knots. Thats just the sad truth to it:(
 
However the drive to the airport is significantly more dangerous...

Unfortunately, that's just not correct with respect to Part 91 general aviation operations.

You have a good point with respect to media attention. It's interesting when people die in plane crashes, shark attacks, lightning strikes and construction accidents, apparently.


Trapper John
 
the only thing we are missing here is Charles Emmerson Winchester III
 
Unfortunately, that's just not correct with respect to Part 91 general aviation operations.

Reference please? I'm pretty sure that there are many fewer fatal accidents per day in airplanes than in cars.
 
Reference please? I'm pretty sure that there are many fewer fatal accidents per day in airplanes than in cars.

And there are far fewer pilots operating in a given day than drivers, aren't there?

Richard Collins and Peter Garrison have been blasting away at the old, "drive to the airport" myth for years. I'll have to find you a link(s), but Part 91 GA operations are around 10x more dangerous than driving a car, or in other words, about the same as riding a motorcycle. These stats are based on fatal accidents per mile.


Trapper John
 
And there are far fewer pilots operating in a given day than drivers, aren't there?

Richard Collins and Peter Garrison have been blasting away at the old, "drive to the airport" myth for years. I'll have to find you a link(s), but Part 91 GA operations are around 10x more dangerous than driving a car, or in other words, about the same as riding a motorcycle. These stats are based on fatal accidents per mile.


Trapper John

I doubt that's true....but perhaps we should stop there.

JOOC, how many nonfatal accidents are tracked?
 
I doubt that's true....but perhaps we should stop there.

JOOC, how many nonfatal accidents are tracked?
When it comes to fatal accidents per mile traveled or hours traveled--general aviation is significantly higher than a car. It is more on par with a motorcycle. A motorcycle is acceptable risk to me--so aviation is as well.

On a motorcycle your fatal accident could very easily be someone else's fault. In GA--it's almost always your fault. This is why I feel safer in an airplane than a car or a motorcycle. I like to think that I'm smarter then the percentage that kills themselves.
 
Since some 87% of aviation accidents are determined to be caused by pilot error, it's a foregone conclusion 87% are preventable. Now, what are we going to do to start preventing them???
 
Since some 87% of aviation accidents are determined to be caused by pilot error, it's a foregone conclusion 87% are preventable. Now, what are we going to do to start preventing them???

toughen up the training?
 
There is a system in place to qualify and, supposedly, police air show pilots. ICAS and the FAA agreed a while back to empower a group Aerobatic Competency Evaluators (ACEs) to grant and renew low level waivers. It's my understanding that these folks can also walk up and take your low level waiver away from you if they don't like what they see. The ACEs that I know personally take the responsibility very seriously. Maybe some don't. There's some question as to whether at least one of the fatalities in the last few years even had a current waiver. It's rumored that they were having a hard time finding an ACE that would renew them. Maybe some pilots are getting surface level waivers too quickly also. It's hard for me to imagine for example someone regardless of skill to get a surface waiver in the first couple of years of flying acro. As someone else here said, it's not machines breaking or bad pilots - it's a even a momentary poor judgement call that kills. That just takes some time and real discipline to build up the iron clad attitude to recognize it and not push on when things aren't going on plan.

Also, air show flying and aerobatic competition flying are two completely different things that have very little in common beyond the noise we're making. Air show flying is all about creating the illusion that it's way more dangerous than it is. Aerobatic contests are all about building in and strictly enforcing safety in precision flying. The IAC is pretty rigorous about enforcing the requirements to compete and the level of performance that's expected in the box. At a recent contest, a pilot was DQ'd and sent home from the contest for flying the low lines inverted. There's no tolerance of "stunts" at aerobatic contests. Lower level categories of competitors have a higher altitude floor. For primary and sportsman, it's 1500' AGL or you zero your score on the entire flight. In intermediate and advanced, the floors are still 1100' and 800' respectively. There are air show pilots with low level waivers that compete in intermediate and advanced but if they go below those altitudes in competition they're penalized. The safety record of IAC contest flying has been exceptionally good.

Red Bull races are the most exciting thing to come along in a long time in aerobatics. I'm puzzled by one thing though - in air show flying, the performances are oriented so that no high energy maneuver is directed at the crowd. It's all back and forth and it's that way be requirement and design. Is that the case for Red Bull? I haven't been to a race but it sure looks like they're rounding pylons pointed at the crowds and pretty close too. Is there enough margin built in that a plane can break and still not hit the crowd? I can't even imagine the number of air show rules that have to be waived to hold a Red Bull race. Hopefully, this isn't one of those "it's only a matter of time" things that get us all taken out to the woodshed.
 
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