What should a plane really cost?

drotto

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drotto
Ok, another thread based on ways to make GA better. My question may not be simple to answer, but it is important. What should a plane really cost new. I know that they can never be as cheap as a car based on supply and demand, but if you stripped away all the regulations and litigation, what should your average new plane really cost to purchase? Even if the regulation and litigation cost were on par with cars, what would one cost? I fully realize, that there would be a wide range based on performance, size, and features. So anyone with knowledge of material costs, labor, development etc. could chime in that would be great.
 
I suspect the litigation angle is overstated. These things are not cheap to build, and the certification costs are amortized over low volumes. I can't see it being much cheaper than LSA has gotten so, maybe 150k for a four seat single would be a higher volume target, under new relaxed certification rules?


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Litigation is an expense, but I think you would find aircraft to still be way more expensive. Cars are mostly assembled by machine these days, and can be churned out in bulk. Aircraft are still manufactured by hand and take many weeks if not months to complete.
 
Anyone is free to build an airplane and try and sell it for a profit. An RV, almost equivalent to a certified plane can be built for about $125,000. That is COST, with your labor free. Add labor and profit and its going to be more. If someone built thousands of them a year, it would lower the cost significantly. How many Cessna 172's a year are built now? Some 2 or 300? That is almost handbuilding. Things arent any less expensive overseas. A Cubcrafters Supercub costs about 250,000 or more. New planes are so expensive and used ones so plentiful. New planes are a very tiny market.

There is no "should cost" in capitalism. Only "does cost".
 
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Litigation is an expense, but I think you would find aircraft to still be way more expensive. Cars are mostly assembled by machine these days, and can be churned out in bulk. Aircraft are still manufactured by hand and take many weeks if not months to complete.

I know I asked the question, to see what others felt. In my mind a plane should be more in line with an ultra luxury car for instance and Astin Martin, Rolls Royce, etc. Those start around $175k, but you get a very well equipped, luxury product at that price. So in my mind a "nicer" plane (meaning not a base model) like a 182, Piper Arrow, should start in the same range, where a higher end plane like a Cirrus 22T, Mooney Acclaim, should stat around $300 or $350k, but not the $600 k plus they are now. I think the more or less hand built cars market and building methods (while not exact), can be somewhat extrapolated to planes.
 
Cars have liability and government regulations too. Airbags, mpg requirments, safety testing, bumpers etc. Car companies get sued all the time.
 
Seems to me if you want to get new products into the market place come up with a low cost entry.

With the cost of new planes I am still befuddled why Cessna chose to come out with the 162 and not just re-release the 152 like they did with the 172... WTH... you put one person and full fuel in a 162 and you're overweight.. Now how do you think they will recoup the cost of that disaster
 
Cars have liability and government regulations too. Airbags, mpg requirments, safety testing, bumpers etc. Car companies get sued all the time.

Net income for Ford vs any GA Producer can cover a lot more "extra" costs and certifying a gizmo for one model of a production run of 100000's of units vs a run of 100's is a very different calculus.

OTOH, I wanted a stick shift for my new BMW X3 but it's not available in the USA since the cost of verifying it with the projected USA sales volume wasn't worth it to BMW. BTW, it is only built in the USA and available everywhere else.

Cheers
 
I once read, not long ago, that ~$150,000 of the purchase price of a new C172 is to cover liability insurance. Darned if I can find it now. Seems like it was in an article in one of them fancy airplane magazines with the pretty pictures.
 
The major cost drivers are low demand, no economy of scale and the hand-made nature of aircraft. Add to that the regulations and weight issue requiring exotic matierals and manufacturing process. For example the A/C/Heating unit in a new Cirrus costs more than a new Mercedes, Lexus or BMW.
 
My new 1975 Pontiac Grand Am 400 4v was a little over $6000. This was a mid size car and in between compact & luxury type cars.
I seem to remember a same year new Bo V35 was around $40,000.
 
A 172 shouldn't cost more than $100K new, when looking at it from a materials/labor standpoint . Inflation tells us that. However, Cessna is intent on trying to make the same amount of margin dollars on lower volume, hence the ridiculous price. You add in litigation accruals and overhead across that low volume, and you have a $400K airplane that is less capable than its earlier kin.


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It goes back to how does the Maule family build a plane that essentially performs a comparable mission as a 172 that's twice the cost. Better useful load, better takeoff performance, and certified...for half the price?

Let's see if they sell 'em... if I had the desire to sustain the debt load, I'd love to have a brand new plane....


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The low volume, hand made nature of the aircraft (as mentioned by Citizen5000) seems spot on. I'm sure the manufacturer makes a decent profit beyond the materials and labor to make the plane, then the middle man (distributor, broker... often times both) and then the cost paid to manufacturer of all the equipment (EFIS, nav/com equipment, ELT, etc.), and then the cost of transport, assembly, flight test and registration...I just don't see a new aircraft being less than $120 - $130K. And that's likely a LSA.

I keep watching the Raptor Aircraft videos on YouTube to see how far along they're coming. Lots of materials, lots of plugs, lots of machine and manual labor... I don't know if he's going to be able to sell copies of his aircraft for the advertised $120K. Heck, look at the Icon A5 and its quarter-million dollar price tag.
 
I think judging by a complete rv 10 being less than 150k kitted out with glass and nice paint and interior you could probably come out under 200k well equiped if airplanes just cost what it takes to make it.

I've kind of wondered if you could crowd fund the development of a "skyhawk 3" 180-200 hp 140kts tough, decent useful load, and nothing exotic. Make the company a not for profit venture, since your R and D is funded via crowd you don't have to recover that cost, open source the final design so if you somehow go defunct then anyone else can step in and make one. Sell them more or less at cost. If you could hit 150-180k decently equipped I think thats a good pricepoint for 3ish way partnerships or clubs/flightschools
Now I'm curious how many millions it would take to make a Skyhawk 3 from idea to production. AOPA has 400kish members if just a quarter of those gave 10 bucks a month, surely you could easily get a plane out the door for 40 million over 3ish years.
 
With the cost of new planes I am still befuddled why Cessna chose to come out with the 162 and not just re-release the 152 like they did with the 172... WTH... you put one person and full fuel in a 162 and you're overweight.. Now how do you think they will recoup the cost of that disaster

They wanted to get into the LSA market. The 152 is not LSA. They learned the LSA market is not for them. At least they didn't pay the cost of full Part 23 certification.
 
Now I'm curious how many millions it would take to make a Skyhawk 3 from idea to production. AOPA has 400kish members if just a quarter of those gave 10 bucks a month, surely you could easily get a plane out the door for 40 million over 3ish years.

And there is the problem, certification. It can millions of dollars to design, certify, and begin production, before the first dime is made. Here is some simple math, say it takes $10 million to certify. Lets assume you sell the aircraft for $300,000, and make a nice 10% profit on the sale, so $30,000. You would have to sell the first 300+ airplanes before you ever turn a dime in profit. Kind of hard to get off the ground for any new product, without millions in backing. And given that new GA sales are so low these days, its a hard sell to investors.
 
I do not agree with the litigation increasing the cost of the final product so much, IF we are talking about defending themselves against potential lawsuits. There is deep and very affordable insurance for that, and there are businesses and manufacturers who have a much higher risk in litigation but the end product is nowhere near the cost of a plane. The caveat here is when investors own shares in the insurance company AND the manufacturer who is a customer of the insurance company. Think about how that works for just a moment.

I do agree with low volume being a big component, but the manufacturers themselves have a problem in that they do not invest heavily into more efficient ways to manufacture products. There is no reason that a plane needs to have such a large labor component to be produced. Even if you argue that it does, the closest comparable, the automotive market, has this figured out for models that are very low in volume. There are special models out there that roll off as customs, and have a manual labor component. They are more powerful, much classier, take much more abuse, have (arguably) more complex systems (excluding the panel), also use exotic materials, and do not approach the cost of a brand new 172.

Regulation takes a piece of this. Each and every nut and bolt that is regulated and certified on that aircraft adds to a cost for the manufacturer. You make the yoke? Simple enough piece of equipment. Not necessarily a high cost to produce item, but in the same breath, they are not high volume, either. So a simple item, low volume, but the manufacturer needs to certify that piece separately. There have been comments about the same nuts/bolts at Home Depot, or the same automotive products that you can usually purchase for a few $ at the auto parts store. The same items, but one is regulated/certified, one is not. So you go to the flea market, buy a bolt that looks the same as the one at Home Depot, but truthfully it's a lot weaker because you're not a specialist. Stick the wrong one in, it breaks, and (maybe) goodbye. The burden of regulation for the manufacturing company whether it's for component manufacturers or the actual aircraft manufacturer is a very heavy burden.

Being a publicly traded company is a huge difference. A good private company in manufacturing holds itself accountable to the end user that receives and uses the products produced. When you switch to being public, you are now accountable to the shareholder. Shareholders want returns, and they want them now. "Oh, you found a better way to do things, but it's going to give back less of a margin for a few years until it really starts going? Nope. Keep up the high margins and returns." Every time one of our competitors is purchased by a public entity, we can see it coming for miles away. They get very sloppy, innovation decreases, investment in doing things better decreases, and it's a mess. Sad, really, because we lose a good competitor in the marketplace. Too many of them go away, and we ourselves are in trouble. We need good competition in the marketplace to keep us moving forward and innovating. If we have no (good) competition, we're going to be focused on things that do not matter.

Which brings me to the next point. There is not a lot of competition out there in aviation. Sure there are a lot of airplanes to choose from, but the manufacturer pretty much knows...if you want a high wing, you're going to do X, you would like to have Y, you're a Cessna customer. You want a low wing, you're going to do X, you would like to have Y, you're a "Insert Manufacturer Name Here" customer. Look back through the threads on plane and mission suggestion requests...doesn't vary that much, does it?

I also agree with Sooner and Tampico above.

My .02.
 
I once read, not long ago, that ~$150,000 of the purchase price of a new C172 is to cover liability insurance. Darned if I can find it now. Seems like it was in an article in one of them fancy airplane magazines with the pretty pictures.

From here (before GARA):
"Insurance underwriters, worldwide, began to refuse to sell product liability insurance to U.S. general aviation manufacturers. By 1987, the three largest GA manufacturers claimed their annual costs for product liability ranged from $70,000 to $100,000 per airplane built and shipped that year.[7][18]

I don't know what it is now. It obviously improved since GARA got passed, since Cessna was able to resume manufacturing, but it's also 30 years later now... So let's say it got reduced to $50'000 in 1987 due to GARA (which I don't know if it did), that would be $100'000 in today's dollars. And you can probably make a case for $150k as well.
 
Ok, another thread based on ways to make GA better. My question may not be simple to answer, but it is important. What should a plane really cost new. .

I'm 1500 hours into building my airplane (halfway?), so 3000 hours of labor. If an A&P charged $80/hr there's $240,000 right there - and we have not even started on parts.
 
I'm 1500 hours into building my airplane (halfway?), so 3000 hours of labor. If an A&P charged $80/hr there's $240,000 right there - and we have not even started on parts.

Factory production cuts those hours down likely by a factor of 5 or so.
 
What are annual operating costs (insurance, annual inspection, and fuel for ~75 hours) for a C150? I'm figuring about $5000 total for expensive fuel, insurance, and an annual. Tie-down or hangar bit included.
 
What are annual operating costs (insurance, annual inspection, and fuel for ~75 hours) for a C150? I'm figuring about $5000 total for expensive fuel, insurance, and an annual. Tie-down or hangar bit included.

My total annual expenses and running total of hourly costs for the past 75 hours are around $5500, but I pay 168/month for tiedown which is way higher than average.
Flying 50-100 hour per year will be 60-80/hr in a 150. More on a bad year, less on a good year.
 
Somewhere in my home is a Cessna pilots magazine that I only keep around because of an article about how in the 70's, McDonalds wouldn't sell you a hamburger the way you wanted it but Cessna would sell you anything in any sort of configuration you wanted. Something like 120 variations of their piston singles. Fast forward forty years and Mcdonalds will sell you anything you want but Cessna will sell you only what they want, 2 engines(?) and a choice of three color schemes. Was a great article.
 
I'm 1500 hours into building my airplane (halfway?), so 3000 hours of labor. If an A&P charged $80/hr there's $240,000 right there - and we have not even started on parts.

Not quite how factory labor is calculated. You are learning how to do everything from the start. Production labor sure as hell isn't $80/hr (more like $20/hr), and use repetitive processes, jigs, and standard work instructions so that it reduces waste in materials and time. I bet what might take you 3000 hours by yourself, takes a team of 4-6 guys less than 500hrs easily. It may take me 4-hours to do the 120K timing kit on an engine the first time, due to unfamiliarity and searching for correct tools. I get faster at it each successive attempt until you have it down to a science and get it done in 30% of the original time. It works the same way for production lines, even if the volume is relatively low.
 
They wanted to get into the LSA market. The 152 is not LSA. They learned the LSA market is not for them. At least they didn't pay the cost of full Part 23 certification.

Yes, I am aware of the reason for the 162... But... I guess this goes back to a saying I heard once when referring to being in business... "when you try to please everyone, you fail..."

In reference to the production cost mentioned above, some of the process with automation have made things cheaper... even in today dollars, I can't see the actual cost being more than they are when the last one rolled off the line in 1986.
 
I plan to spend about $250k for a Sportsman 2+2 on the TWTT plan but want to power it with a deltahawk diesel engine so the engine mount and cowl modifications could add a bit.
 
I have a slightly different take. If Cessna, Piper, and Cirrus were making a killing on producing single engine piston aircraft, someone else would jump in. Instead, Cessna is part of a global aviation franchise, Piper is owned by Brunei Ministry of Finance, and Cirrus was sold to the Chinese.

Hate to tell you this, but maybe new airplanes really cost $400K plus.
 
Well in 57 a 172 was $8,700. $77,200 in 2017 USD. A new 2017 172 is around $400k. Not the same airplane, but it definitely isn't 5x the airplane.

This is something that's bothered me a lot. We always assume the reason for this cost jump is litigation/regulation but is there really THAT much more today than there was then? Maybe there was but we're just assuming and making guesses here, that's a MASSIVE jump.

I would love to talk to someone in the industry who actually knows... or if they don't know research it. Heck the company might learn something valuable in the process. Unfortunately I don't know anyone like that... POA is the closest I'd have to a contact in that regard.
 
Seems to me if you want to get new products into the market place come up with a low cost entry.

With the cost of new planes I am still befuddled why Cessna chose to come out with the 162 and not just re-release the 152 like they did with the 172... WTH... you put one person and full fuel in a 162 and you're overweight.. Now how do you think they will recoup the cost of that disaster
Because the 152 does not meet LSA standards (specifically 1320 lbs gross weight), which was their target.

Somebody bet me to it.
 
It's also volume driven. Production was an order of magnitude higher back then. Imagine the overhead now...


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This is something that's bothered me a lot. We always assume the reason for this cost jump is litigation/regulation but is there really THAT much more today than there was then? Maybe there was but we're just assuming and making guesses here, that's a MASSIVE jump.

I would love to talk to someone in the industry who actually knows... or if they don't know research it. Heck the company might learn something valuable in the process. Unfortunately I don't know anyone like that... POA is the closest I'd have to a contact in that regard.

It'd be interesting to price the labor hours required in 1957 vs 2017. With an essentially hand built product of social skills, generally labor is the driving cost factor. And you can multiply that by the various components which all carry their individual labor cost, plus liability load (like the engine).

John
 
Well in 57 a 172 was $8,700. $77,200 in 2017 USD. A new 2017 172 is around $400k. Not the same airplane, but it definitely isn't 5x the airplane.

That's an overly simplistic comparison. Bread cost 19 cents in 1957, today it costs what? $2.00? Did dough become different? Has water changed? No? So why the markup?
It ain't litigation on bread. Even with a 3% inflation, bread should cost half of that today, or less.

Consider the equipment in a 1957 plane compared with a 2017 plane. It definitely ain't 400K, but it also ain't 77K either. I'd put it somewhere in between.

@midwestpa24 do you really believe they are ONLY making 10% margin on aircraft? It's a heckuva lot more than that I'd bet. I know your example was just to make a point, but 10% is probably way low.
 
Textron is a public company. You can look at their financials to see what margins they get on aircraft production. Cirrus makes hundreds of planes per year. If margins were all that great they likely could have avoided needing Chinese cash to avoid bankruptcy trying to bring the SF50 to market. Also, the leader in SLSA was Flight Design in Germany. Despite selling the most new SLSA (non certified and non TSOd avionics) at an average price of over $150k they went bankrupt too.

The boneyard of bankruptcies is full of aircraft manufacturers.
 
Great thread.

Automation, efficient process, and great machines are a blessing to manufacturing. We came from humble, but strong and proud beginnings, and these are some of the things that have helped us carve out a competitive edge in the marketplace as our competitors continue to do many things the old ways "because that is how it's always been done". Everything we make is aluminum, it all requires certifications before it can leave the building, and we have multiple certifications in our processing and manufacturing. Without a doubt the certification and litigation in aviation is more complex, stringent, and expensive, I highly doubt it adds such a significant number to the final price tag as some may think it does. Expensive...yes. But multiple tens of thousands per aircraft doesn't seem reasonable.

I do not agree that if the margins were strong, someone would jump in and enter the business. The barriers to entry and startup are simply too great even outside of certifications for a wave of new competitors to enter.
 
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