What is the current state of Commercial aviation?

Oldmanb777 said:
GREAT question, asked at the wrong time. Really a great question. I, and many of my classmates have discussed this at length, with no clear answer. I doubt I would do anything different. That said, I MADE A LOT of mistakes along the way. Again, I doubt I would do anything different, because I seem to make lots of mistakes. If I knew what i was doing, I would have chosen (As if you could) the proper airline. That would make a real difference. But the airline I wound up with and was really devoted to was run through the ringer. I made something of myself, out side the airline business. If I had depended on the airline business, i would be in a very different position now. But i worked another job concurrently with flying, so I'm ok. My brother didn't. He tried to live the "airline pilot lifestyle" and so had to get another job after he retired. His age, being a few years older, also had him retiring under a bankruptcy contract. I retired during good times. So that was totally luck. He had good times at a good airline for many years, while i was struggling at a marginal airline. I didnt; have the exepectations of a great carreer that he had. So we did things very different . I now can look back and say, maybe it was a blessing that I worked for a marginal airline, instead of the dream job. It made me self sufficient, instead of relying on the airline. It's interesting, and a really great question. Wish I had a better answer. I was told many years ago, "Live like an airline pilot, and you will be in trouble all your life. Live like a minimum wage worker all your carreer and you'll be fine". Looking back, that was great advice. Goes for many occupations, but especially for airline workers. You don't make the sacrifices in life to be a career pilot without it being a calling. This could go on all night. But again a GREAT question that I wish I could answer.
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Interesting. It sounds like you had another business while still flying? I'm an airline guy as well and I love hearing what others have going on.
 
kmacht said:
International is taking a dive due to the new requirement implemented in January that you need a clean covid test before being allowed on a plane coming back to the US. It pretty much killed any sort of bump they were getting from people traveling for pleasure and businesses are not willing to risk getting employees stuck in a foreign country for two weeks with nowhere to stay because of a false positive. There is talk about implementing those same rules for domestic flights. If that happens the airline industry is going to be in for some really rough times.
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Wow, I had no idea. That is going to be a problem. But help me understand. I just checked FlightAware and there appears to be a lot of traffic over the North Atlantic and on both sides of the pond.
 
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Oldmanb777 said:
I doubt I would do anything different. That said, I MADE A LOT of mistakes along the way. Again, I doubt I would do anything different, because I seem to make lots of mistakes. If I knew what i was doing, I would have chosen (As if you could) the proper airline. That would make a real difference.
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I think one of the things that makes this industry so tough is that there's no guarantee that even the 'correct' decisions at the time will pan out. Companies change, contracts change, mergers can blow up seniority/QOL, and as we all know timing is everything. It's hard enough to guess where the game pieces will be in 5 years, let alone over a 30-40 year career. In my experience the guys most unhappy with the job (not saying this is you, just in general) are the ones that can't accept that they're essentially along for the ride, and spend a lot of time looking back with regret (or worse, anger) about situations that they ultimately had no control over anyway.
 
To have a successful career as a professional pilot you must be stubbornly persistent. It takes a significant amount of time, money, and hard work to get to a job worth having and there will be many setbacks along the way. Lateral job moves are rarely possible. Weathering those setbacks is significantly easier if you are without debt and are able to stick with a single spouse for your whole career.
 
SoonerAviator said:
Cargo still pays the bills.
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That's what I thought in 1996 when I went the cargo route and passed up on an interview invite for, ironically, the passenger airline I now work for.

In over 31 years as an airline pilot I've been furloughed three times. All three furloughs were from (two) cargo airlines.
 
Larry in TN said:
In over 31 years as an airline pilot I've been furloughed three times. All three furloughs were from (two) cargo airlines.
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So to ask the question that was asked earlier of Oldmanb777, would you do it all over again?
 
Larry in TN said:
That's what I thought in 1996 when I went the cargo route and passed up on an interview invite for, ironically, the passenger airline I now work for.

In over 31 years as an airline pilot I've been furloughed three times. All three furloughs were from (two) cargo airlines.
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Sure, but I was specifically posing a theory on why there is still so much traffic across the Atlantic. Even if the seats aren't filled, hauling cargo down below will still keep the airline cogs turning.
 
Lots of insight here. Yes I spent a lot of time bitter over things I had no control over. Over all, in the end, my career was better than most, and not as good as many. So probably about in the middle. Again that was totally luck. I tried to make my own luck when i could, with mixed success.
As far as a second job. You had better have alternate skills in this business. I am an A&P, guess what. When pilots get fouloughed, so do the A&P's. Not always., but usually. I was luck y there as the airline I started out at was happy to find something else for qualified pilots to do. But there might not be job openings to fill. The A&P gives you so many marketable skills. Car mechanic, pretty much all the skilled trades. Like plumber, electrician, handy man ,framer. I've done them all. Flipped cars on the side, used car lot. eventually fell into housing when the market was down. Bought a foreclosure that the bank couldn't sell, fixed it and rented it. The fact that I can fix the houses myself, and when I hire it done, i know what it should cost and how to do it better than the pro, makes owning rental property doable. But times change. It's time to get out of that business.
Probably the best is to have (and keep) a spouse that can provide a second income. And don't live large. Live on one paycheck, rat hole the other for the inevitable day that you will be unemployed. And remember it often takes more than a year to navigate the employment screening at an airline. Just expect it. Rare is the pilot that doesn't go through multiple unemployment's in a career. and usually they are long.
 
kayoh190 said:
So to ask the question that was asked earlier of Oldmanb777, would you do it all over again?
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Yes. At 55, I still have no idea what else I would have done.

SoonerAviator said:
Even if the seats aren't filled, hauling cargo down below will still keep the airline cogs turning.
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You're right about that. My passenger airline is doing a significant amount of cargo business during the pandemic.
 
Morgan3820 said:
Wow, I had no idea. That is going to be a problem. But help me understand. I just checked FlightAware and there appears to be a lot of traffic over the North Atlantic and on both sides of the pond.
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It may look like a lot, but its way down. From 1300 to 500 per day per this article. Between reduced traffic and ADS-B, they are even considering getting rid of the NAT-Tracks. The last crossing I did this past fall, there where only two tracks instead of 12.

https://nats.aero/blog/2021/02/is-it-time-to-disband-the-organised-track-structure/
 
Dave Theisen said:
Nah, he already said he wouldn’t work for what I’d pay him. :)
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It wasn't the amount - it was the nature of the payment. With eman you've got to think in terms of strippers. If you're not paying him in ones, he's not interested!
 
kayoh190 said:
It wasn't the amount - it was the nature of the payment. With eman you've got to think in terms of strippers. If you're not paying him in ones, he's not interested!
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speaking of.....Uptown Cabaret is open....downtown CLT.........when's your next layover?
 
Morgan3820 said:
Wow, I had no idea. That is going to be a problem. But help me understand. I just checked FlightAware and there appears to be a lot of traffic over the North Atlantic and on both sides of the pond.
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Link to the international travel requirement:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/testing-international-air-travelers.html

Link to article saying they are considering adding it to domestic travel
www.cnn.com/travel/amp/us-domestic-covid-19-test-considered-air-travel/index.html

I can say that the new rule has affected us personally. We were planning a trip to Mexico this spring but won’t go now. I don’t have a problem getting tested but if I come up positive I can’t return home and any resort or hotel we might have stayed at won’t let us back in to quarantine. I would literally be living on the streets for two weeks. Putting it on domestic flights will kill the airline industry.
 
Larry in TN said:
That's what I thought in 1996 when I went the cargo route and passed up on an interview invite for, ironically, the passenger airline I now work for.

In over 31 years as an airline pilot I've been furloughed three times. All three furloughs were from (two) cargo airlines.
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Overall though, cargo seems to me to be a generally safer ride. Lower highs but higher lows. And what’s not glamorous about riding across the cargo ramp in a 50 year old truck to the aircraft:)

Not sure where you are but, the big 2 cargo operators are a pretty safe bet. ACMI, not so much. Overall I feel pretty lucky to end up where I am and yes, it’s pretty much all luck. You go with who calls first.
 
I guess I would have to say, YES i would do it all over again, but I'm not staring at a furlough notice after the 4th redeye in a row, and some passenger just handed me a dirty diaper to dispose of while I am begingg for a jumpseat to get home.
I miss flying, I miss the comradery. I don't miss the 16 hr duty days interrupted by time zone sleep depravation, days on end. Bad diet. think you can take a Sh*t after being stopped up for 4 days on the road. Think you can sleep at home in your own bed during the night after 4 redeyes in a row. Yea, I'd do it all again. Just like mentioned above, i can;t think of anything I'd rather do. I would have been much better off doing something else. More successful, better health, more quality time off, but yes I'd do it all again. Your spouse had better be amazingly resourceful, since you will be gone most of the time.
I came home off a 4 day trip, several redeyes. Walked in to the house at 02:30. Headed up to bed. Crawled in and realized my wife wasn't there. I got curious. So I headed into the kids room. No one home. Then i realized the lights were on all over the house. (took a while for that to settle in). Then I noticed it. My 12 yr old son had left a note for me........."Mom's Water broke and we headed to the hospital". totally true story. The kids took a picture of me sleeping on the couch in the delivery room ( in my dirty uniform) while #3 was being born. Dr gave me a stern chewing out for sleeping through it. She couldn't understand how anybody could sleep through something like that. I guess she never flew 4 redeyes in row.
 
I just did my "re-doc" for Delta after being on mil leave for the last 5 years. The company is still licking it's wounds but they just sent out recalls to 400 pilots, expecting more in the coming months. I'm going back to the 330 which was all international pre-COVID. We are flying less int'l; it's still most of the bid packs though. We have picked up some domestic flying which is nice for a change of pace IMO.

Agree with the other guys - go with the first call you get.
 
Spirit Airlines just opened their application window for First Officers.

Say what you want about riding them as a passenger, but they generally have a pretty good contract for a ULCC. Very good QoL for their pilots.
 
Sluggo63 said:
Spirit Airlines just opened their application window for First Officers.

Say what you want about riding them as a passenger, but they generally have a pretty good contract for a ULCC. Very good QoL for their pilots.
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Frontier is hiring as well. Both pilot groups seem very happy.
 
Reduced international traffic is allowing the airlines to experiment with using optimal routes across the ocean instead of the traditional airways. Could lead to some permanent changes and save the industry some money.
 
Larry in TN said:
Only if you restrict "Cargo" to FedEx or UPS.

Everyone else; not so much. You are flying someone else's freight and those contracts come and go.
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Actually I was restricting it to these two. The ACMI world is much more volatile.
 
Morgan3820 said:
Wow, I had no idea. That is going to be a problem. But help me understand. I just checked FlightAware and there appears to be a lot of traffic over the North Atlantic and on both sides of the pond.
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This was from today. Only 1 NAT coming from Europe.
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