Weather Question

kimberlyanne546 said:
Something just changed. Winds populated and it changed from 2:39 to 2:55, darn. Looks like I really should stop for gas.
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That wind data isn't that solid. You'll know if you need to stop for gas once you're in flight and have better data.
 
Not to hijack this thread but a kudos to Scott D (who posted several times) on this topic for the article in the "Flying" magazine on Nov 2010. *Negotiating the Great Lakes Ice Maker* well done article. Definetly going to look into the webinars and training. :)
 
kimberlyanne546 said:
Something just changed. Winds populated and it changed from 2:39 to 2:55, darn. Looks like I really should stop for gas.
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Kim,

It is GREAT that you are looking ahead and practicing your decision making skills, but it doesn't "look like" anything yet. At this point you're only slightly more likely to fly it in 2:55 as you are in 2:10. Until you're within 24 (12, really) hours of departure the forecasts don't mean squat. Really. They don't. That's something that you just end up learning...though many people here are trying (over and over again) to tell you that. Please listen to them.

What you're doing now isn't anything but practice for when the time comes to make a decision. But if you're going to practice you'd be WAY better off practicing as if you're about ready to leave. As in, let's pretend that I'm leaving in two hours and let's look at the current weather. Looking 48, 72 or 96 hours out doesn't do anything but get you worked up over things that will never happen. I can think of at least a half dozen trips that I would have canceled had I made the decision just 12 hours before launch.

Once again, I think it's great that you're studying this stuff. But you keep saying things that give the impression that you think the weather forecasts that you're seeing are actually going to impact what happens. They're not. You're just as likely to know what's going to happen on a 200 NM VFR XC by looking into a crystal ball as you are by looking at forecasts > 48 hours out. :yesnod:
 
jason said:
It is GREAT that you are looking ahead and practicing your decision making skills, but it doesn't "look like" anything yet. At this point you're only slightly more likely to fly it in 2:55 as you are in 2:10. Until you're within 24 (12, really) hours of departure the forecasts don't mean squat. Really. They don't. That's something that you just end up learning...though many people here are trying (over and over again) to tell you that. Please listen to them.
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My primary CFI told me that "weather forecasts are horoscopes with numbers." At least that holds true with longer term forecasts.

What you're doing now isn't anything but practice for when the time comes to make a decision.
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I disagree, to a minor extent. Watching the weather patterns evolve and move past your route of flight for a week or so before you intend to go, gives you a picture of the overall weather pattern. For me, that is useful information. Are the short term forecasts just before you fly more useful? Of course. But watching the longer term weather picture evolve is not useless.

-Skip
 
Skip Miller said:
I disagree, to a minor extent. Watching the weather patterns evolve and move past your route of flight for a week or so before you intend to go, gives you a picture of the overall weather pattern. For me, that is useful information. Are the short term forecasts just before you fly more useful? Of course. But watching the longer term weather picture evolve is not useless.

-Skip
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I see your point. However, when you're doing that you're approaching it differently than how I see Kim approaching it. You would be saying "I see low pressure moving in. Things could get interesting." Or *maybe* you'd go so far as to say "if this forecast holds I might have to make a gas stop" . She's saying "looks like I really should stop for gas".

All of that said, I understand that she was saying that within 24 hours of departure...so maybe I should lighten up. :D
 
kimberlyanne546 said:
Well OK let me rephrase, I have to show up with enough emptiness in my tanks to allow them to put ten gallons in for me to park there for free for the four days. So the further away I get gas, the more empty I will be. I just don't want to fly straight there if it isn't looking like we're gonna land in three hours or less and if I took more than a few minutes to taxi, runup, and depart the pattern at Petaluma.

It is lame that I can't go even 200nm with an hour fuel reserve unless all conditions are pretty favorable. Oh well. Good fuel planning practice.
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You need a bigger plane. :D

The Tiger would be there in an hour and a half and have three and a half hours fuel left. However, you'd need to land somewhere like KSFO in order to have enough runway. :rofl:
 
kimberlyanne546 said:
For ****s and giggles, I pulled up my O69 to Monterey invoice from January. It was 3.1 hours - I followed the coast line, at a lower altitude, but Monterey is almost exactly half way. That was in the 152.

So it seems like 6.2 with no mid way stops and a constant 5500 altitude may be a reasonable estimate. It is too bad, I was hoping to be well under 6 hours. C'est la vie.
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This is why longer trips often end up cheaper in a faster more expensive plane, especially if you're gonna climb that high.
 
kimberlyanne546 said:
Something just changed. Winds populated and it changed from 2:39 to 2:55, darn. Looks like I really should stop for gas.
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Probably be wise to at least have it in the plan. You always want to know where your cheap fuel stops along your potential route are.
 
Henning said:
This is why longer trips often end up cheaper in a faster more expensive plane, especially if you're gonna climb that high.
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I just ran the numbers on a flight from Lincoln down to Midland, TX the other day. To fly in a $105/hr Cherokee at 110 kts is only $169 less expensive than the same trip in a $170/hr Debonair flying at 155 kt. But, that $169 saves over three hours of flying round trip.

Here was my math:

(((3+(50/60))*170)*2)-(((5+(24/60))*105)*2) = $169.33
((3+(50/60))*2)-((5+(24/60))*2) = -3.133 hours

3:50 min (no wind) in the Debonair. 5:24 (no wind) in the Cherokee. Also I didn't account for startup, taxi or takeoff in any of this...it was just for ballpark cost. But I think it illustrates Henning's point well.
 
jason said:
I just ran the numbers on a flight from Lincoln down to Midland, TX the other day. To fly in a $105/hr Cherokee at 110 kts is only $169 less expensive than the same trip in a $170/hr Debonair flying at 155 kt. But, that $169 saves over three hours of flying round trip.

Here was my math:

(((3+(50/60))*170)*2)-(((5+(24/60))*105)*2) = $169.33
((3+(50/60))*2)-((5+(24/60))*2) = -3.133 hours

3:50 min (no wind) in the Debonair. 5:24 (no wind) in the Cherokee. Also I didn't account for startup, taxi or takeoff in any of this...it was just for ballpark cost. But I think it illustrates Henning's point well.
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And you will probably be able to avoid a fuel stop in the Deb, correct? That is key.
 
So I decided to pay for data and now the iPad isn't working, I'm on hold with ATT this sucks.

I want data so I can have in flight weather updates on foreflight / internet.

Argh.

Going to leave for the airport soon.

Passenger fought about it last night, passengers don't like not knowing. He looked at the "slight chance" of rain for the flight back and thought I shouldn't go.

I told him I'll leave solo on Saturday or Sunday if I have to (right now there appears to be a window Sunday afternoon).

I'm excited!
 
kimberlyanne546 said:
So I decided to pay for data and now the iPad isn't working, I'm on hold with ATT this sucks.

I want data so I can have in flight weather updates on foreflight / internet.

Argh.
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Data on the iPad is NOT going to give you in-flight weather updates, certainly not with any reliability. Sorry! It will allow you to do an update at the airport before launch. Of course, if they have WiFi, you already have that capability. Have a great flight!
 
kimberlyanne546 said:
So I decided to pay for data and now the iPad isn't working, I'm on hold with ATT this sucks.

I want data so I can have in flight weather updates on foreflight / internet.

Argh.

Going to leave for the airport soon.

Passenger fought about it last night, passengers don't like not knowing. He looked at the "slight chance" of rain for the flight back and thought I shouldn't go.

I told him I'll leave solo on Saturday or Sunday if I have to (right now there appears to be a window Sunday afternoon).

I'm excited!
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Give us the tail number so we can track ya...

Have fun..... YOU CAN DO IT !!!!!!!
 
Wow! 225 "replies" just to get Kimberly 200 miles down the road. And, there's a lot of talk about needing iPads and GPS's, etc to get this done.

How did we ever do it with just a phone Wx brief and a "map in our lap"??

Basic pilotage skills are dead now, it appears.

Not long ago, a low-time (non-IR) I knew with a 182 canceled a trip to New Orleans because his GPS was inop. I said "the Wx is great, why don't you just take some sectionals and go??

He looked at me like I was crazy for even thinking it.

Kim flys over an airport every 40-50 miles.

If the Wx goes down or she needs fuel, there are plenty of places to bail out.
 
Kiloalphadriver said:
Wow! 225 "replies" just to get Kimberly 200 miles down the road. And, there's a lot of talk about needing iPads and GPS's, etc to get this done.

How did we ever do it with just a phone Wx brief and a "map in our lap"??

Basic pilotage skills are dead now, it appears.

Not long ago, a low-time (non-IR) I knew with a 182 canceled a trip to New Orleans because his GPS was inop. I said "the Wx is great, why don't you just take some sectionals and go??

He looked at me like I was crazy for even thinking it.

Kim flys over an airport every 40-50 miles.

If the Wx goes down or she needs fuel, there are plenty of places to bail out.
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Agreed... But... this is the web equal to a reality show and Kimberly is the star........:D

Will she go ?
Will she cancel ?
Is the BF "cut off" ?

Tune in tomorrow to the next adventure of "AS THE PROP TURNS" :rofl:
 
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N801BH said:
Agreed... But... this is the web equal to a reality show and Kimberly is the star........:D

Will she go ?
Will she cancel ?
Is the BF "cut off" ?

Tune in tomorrow to the next adventure of "AS THE PROP TURNS" :rofl:
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LOL!! How true!!

How's the "world's longest ILS"??

JAC was one of my regular stops. I love that place! There's nothing like hiking around a blind corner up Death Canyon and running face-first into a baby bull moose!

One of my favorite back-country tips is to wear bells and carry pepper spray when hiking in grizzly country.

It's also important to know how to identify bear scat (poop).

Black bear scat contains berries and seeds.

Grizzly scat contains little bells and smells like pepper spray..
 
Kiloalphadriver said:
LOL!! How true!!

How's the "world's longest ILS"??

JAC was one of my regular stops. I love that place! There's nothing like hiking around a blind corner up Death Canyon and running face-first into a baby bull moose!

One of my favorite back-country tips is to wear bells and carry pepper spray when hiking in grizzly country.

It's also important to know how to identify bear scat (poop).

Black bear scat contains berries and seeds.


Grizzly scat contains little bells and smells like pepper spray..
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Moose are surviving good this winter... Here is my kids... about 10 feet from where I am typing this today...
 

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N801BH said:
Moose are surviving good this winter... Here is my kids... about 10 feet from where I am typing this today...
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Very cool!

I'm guessing you're not in town. Although I used to wake up to a herd of elk across from the Rusty Parrot. Maybe you're up towards to village?
 
Kiloalphadriver said:
Very cool!

I'm guessing you're not in town. Although I used to wake up to a herd of elk across from the Rusty Parrot. Maybe you're up towards to village?
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I live right next to the airport.......

Here is my view from the front yard.
 

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N801BH said:
I live right next to the airport.......

Here is my view from the front yard.
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Man, you could never tire of that view!

One of the holes at JHG&TC is considered one of the most senic golf holes in the world. (Same view as yours..:))

I flew a trip in there one night in a snowstorm and my GF at the time was allowed to come along.

She had no idea where we were and had no idea what Jackson was all about.

We woke up in the morning at the Spring Creek Ranch and she looked out the window at the sun shining on the Grand with the fog below. (the Wx had cleared)

After staring in disbelief for a few minutes, she turned to me and said: "we flew in here last night in the middle of this?? Are you friggn nuts??"

I told her I had a little help from technology..
 

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Henning said:
This is why longer trips often end up cheaper in a faster more expensive plane, especially if you're gonna climb that high.
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As a fledgling when I joined my flying club, I thought "who would ever want to fly the mooney for $160 an hour?"

Now I realize what a great deal that is. On a long trip, the mooney probably costs the same as the $115/hr skyhawk sp's. And I can be in tampa in 3 hours.
 
dell30rb said:
As a fledgling when I joined my flying club, I thought "who would ever want to fly the mooney for $160 an hour?"

Now I realize what a great deal that is. On a long trip, the mooney probably costs the same as the $115/hr skyhawk sp's. And I can be in tampa in 3 hours.
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$115? Sure wish I got that price! $155 up here in the big apple:mad:
 
gprellwitz said:
Data on the iPad is NOT going to give you in-flight weather updates, certainly not with any reliability. Sorry! It will allow you to do an update at the airport before launch. Of course, if they have WiFi, you already have that capability. Have a great flight!
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Sure it will, if you have the 3G iPad and can get on the network. I forget how high she said she was going to fly, but I've done it on several occasions, usually not more than 4-5000 feet AGL. Now, if she just has the wi-fi version, yeah, it's not happening. As for reliability, I wouldn't place any bets on it, but then...it's a VFR daytime flight with a good probability of decent weather.
 
BrianR said:
Sure it will, if you have the 3G iPad and can get on the network. I forget how high she said she was going to fly, but I've done it on several occasions, usually not more than 4-5000 feet AGL. Now, if she just has the wi-fi version, yeah, it's not happening. As for reliability, I wouldn't place any bets on it, but then...it's a VFR daytime flight with a good probability of decent weather.
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Since she talked about getting a data plan, I surmised she had the 3G version. And there was a reason I put "reliably" in my original post! :)
 
So the question is - Did she go or not?!
 
Well, I guess if someone's really curious -- and really bored -- you could check out the NORCAL feeds on LiveATC.net. :rolleyes:
 
Weather was pristine in San Francisco today, anyway. Saw a Cessna 210 buzz the Cliff House. I often see small airplanes out there but never quite that low. I'm guessing 200 feet AGL since I was up on a hill and it was the same altitude.
 
kimberlyanne546 said:
Actually, I was just talking to a briefer since the MOA / Restricted is "as published" and I think my sectional expires as of today. Darned areas force me inland as they are constantly active from surface to 15,000 feet.

But thanks, I'm not looking at Monday, I'm coming back on Sunday, remember? Also, now the BF won't tell me if he's coming with me. He may stay the day and come back with his folks. Solo flying, whoopee. Will be an adventure for sure.
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:confused: So? You don't need a new chart because of the date, however back when I was flying paper charts they'd be pretty ratty by the time they were expiring anyway. It used to be a lot simpler that's for sure, but it's still not too bad either. It's the fuel prices that kill everything, nothing else is all that much more expensive than 20 years ago and there are plenty of low cost nice planes out there.
 
Gorgeous. Perfect. I've had a beer though. So I'll just join everyone for dinner now and say:

Except for my not seeing the airport (and doing standard rate turns until I did just outside the delta airspace), I:

Make it WELL AHEAD of my estimated time.

Experienced some, but minimal, turbulence, and fought to keep my MH, Alt, RPM constant.

Kept track of every way point and consistently "beat" each estimate by 10 - 30 minutes.

Only logged 2.7 and it would have been less if I hadn't circled.

I promised myself I wouldn't look at the weather or worry about the trip back, so don't ruin it for me!

The fun guy at the school even texted to make sure I made it ok. Sticked the plane, 7-8 useable remaining, totally safe and sound.

Breathed a sigh of relief.
 
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