Vref.. How Low is Too Low

Ventucky Red

Ventucky Red

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Jon
In using the Vref service on the AOPA site I have been pricing out some planes and I am getting the feeling that either that Vref is pricing out way too low or the owners of the planes are thinking that they are sitting on gold...

How close is this to the actual Vref that is being used by brokers and appraisers?
 
I've found that there are a lot of people selling planes that are absolute crap, and they think they have the perfect plane.
 
You're wasting your time.

No one cares about vref, get on all the sites like TAP, ASO, BarnStormers and look at comps.

If vref says the plane is worth 20k, but the same plane is selling all day for 30k, doubt anyone is going to care what vref says.

Vref can often be low.


Really it's like a house, look at the comps, talk to pilots and A&Ps who know the type, get on the group forms and on the type groups on Facebook and yahoo groups etc.
 
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TAP, ASO, and Barnstormers, etc only show _listing_ prices though, not actual sales prices.
 
dans2992 said:
TAP, ASO, and Barnstormers, etc only show _listing_ prices though, not actual sales prices.
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Yep. Many listings are "I don't want to sell it, but if someone wants it badly enough..." or "I'm going to start it out high and see if I find a sucker at the listing price."

The listings that are long term advertisements simply show you that the airplanes are over-priced for the market.
 
I always thought vref was 25+% too high.

edit: for example, it priced my 1974 Cherokee 140 at more than $46,000 in 2008-ish.

A 1974 cherokee 140, 160hp engine, 200 SMOH, paint an honest 5 or 6, interior showing its age, good radios but no GPS, no glass.

Looking in TAP at the time, many warriors were being listed at lower asking prices.
 
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Bob Noel said:
I always thought vref was 25+% too high.
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Good luck guys. :lol:


I'll tell you one thing, when you think ALL the planes are priced too high, chances are you might be the one with the unrealistic expectations.

It's not hard to get a feel for the market, see what ads stay and which ones don't.


TALK to people who know the type.
 
Did you try NAAA price on trade a plane? I think they are even lower than AOPA.

I started a thread on the same topic: wtb 182.

So many 182s that are 60-70k with run out engines and avionics from the 70s as well. We are going to take our time and shop. Going to start placing fliers in all the Bay Area/Sacramento airport lobbies and hopefully find a plane that didn't know they were for sale... :)
 
PilotRPI said:
I've found that there are a lot of people selling planes that are absolute crap, and they think they have the perfect plane.
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Yep, I did a pre-buy on an aircraft two weekends ago and we found that the engine hadn't had much TLC in years, the doubler on the nose gear had popped rivets, and the wings had intergranular corrosion clearly visible, among other things. It's pretty tricky finding the right airplane for a decent price.
Here's the popped rivets: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxMguiw09SkHeVJNZHlYYy0yU3dWcWJWQkRpb3RHMkFiZVNZ/view?usp=sharing
 
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From my experience the worthwhile planes only hand around a short time on the internet listing sites. You should take a look at features and prices for planes that have been listed a long time. When a good deal comes along try to make a reasonable offer very soon after the listing is published. Also, I myself was not comfortable if the owner did not offer digital scans of the logbooks. No way would
I make an offer or travel to see a plane without reviewing these. But that's just me....

I did notice that the good deals went pretty fast when I bought my plane.
 
James331 said:
You're wasting your time.

No one cares about vref, get on all the sites like TAP, ASO, BarnStormers and look at comps.

If vref says the plane is worth 20k, but the same plane is selling all day for 30k, doubt anyone is going to care what vref says.

Vref can often be low.


Really it's like a house, look at the comps, talk to pilots and A&Ps who know the type, get on the group forms and on the type groups on Facebook and yahoo groups etc.
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you're right. My only comment is that many people finance their planes, and the banks are going to want a source to hang a value on the plane. When vref comes in low, the purchaser needs more down payment to secure a loan.
 
Vref is typically on the high side. Most planes listed out on the net are overpriced, some laughably so. The ones that aren't sell fast. I sold my plane I'm about 3 weeks. The plane I subsequently bought was on the market for 1 day before I contacted him. The ink was dry on the paperwork a few weeks later. I bought my current plane 2.5 years ago and there are several planes still listed out there that were for sale when I was shopping.
 
If you use AOPA finance, they will give you a bluebook price on the plane that you are looking at. No need to actually use them for the loan, but at least you can give them the tail number, link to the add and they will provide a value for the plane that is better than the vref.
 
I was just thinking the opposite. Looked up "vref" and the value is 5-10k more than what we were thinking as fair market value on the c150 I manage.
 
TazzyTazzy said:
Did you try NAAA price on trade a plane? I think they are even lower than AOPA.

I started a thread on the same topic: wtb 182.

So many 182s that are 60-70k with run out engines and avionics from the 70s as well. We are going to take our time and shop. Going to start placing fliers in all the Bay Area/Sacramento airport lobbies and hopefully find a plane that didn't know they were for sale... :)
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NAAA priced my 310 at over $100k, I was asking $80k to take $70k, best offer I got was $45k.
 
I've found vref to be high, but you also have to be realistic ,when you fill in the ratings ,for paint and interior. Engine time also has a lot to do with pricing.
 
I just looked at Vref on my 1977 182Q, 2500 TT with 500 on factory reman, new interior, the glass is recent and prop was resealed a couple years ago, but I didn't add for the glass and prop. They showed it at $98,000.00 retail. :eek: It does have some damage history from 1979 that isn't accounted for, but I still think that's high for my airplane. :dunno:
 
Isn't vref just a regression run on airplane prices? It's a data point. When it comes down to the airplane you're buying, there's only one data point that matters.
 
If it takes you longer than half hour to figure out who the sucker is at the poker table.....
 
I have a VREF Broker account, it has a lot more bells and whistles than AOPA's. I also use NAAA, and combine the two appraisals with a Comprehensive Market Analysis to come up with a current a market value for planes I list. The price point midway between wholesale and retail is usually within a few thousand of what the plane will actually sell for, almost every time.
Condition, damage history, complete logs, and avionics all make a difference on the value. The biggest factor is how many of the type/model are currently listed. When the market is flooded with say, 1968 182's, your going need really gee whiz avionics and paint to make the phone ring, or you'll need to price the 182 towards the bottom 3rd of the market. When there are only a handful of 1968 182's listed, you'll get closer to the VREF retail price.
 
Vref uses buyer/seller data to generate its price. I'm not sure Vref requires any proof of contract to verify the agreed price. As a result, I think some of the data are skewed. Additionally, it's in the broker's interest to only report sales that are higher than average.

I think Vref has much garbage in leading to much garbage out.
 
hook_dupin said:
Vref uses buyer/seller data to generate its price. I'm not sure Vref requires any proof of contract to verify the agreed price. As a result, I think some of the data are skewed. Additionally, it's in the broker's interest to only report sales that are higher than average.

I think Vref has much garbage in leading to much garbage out.
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This thread reenforces my decision to sell my C-172 then buy through a broker. I did it partially because I was lazy and partially because I didn't feel confident to do it right myself. And I also got some good recommendations from my A&P and others for this broker.

The broker suggested a selling price that I thought was low, but he based it on the fact that it had incomplete log books. I was told on this board that I would never get that price because of the logs. The plane sold in about 3 weeks at the asking price. I have to admit I thought I asked too little, but I was glad the process was quick and painless.

Then he found me a very nice replacement plane (Bonanza). He arranged the logistics of having it brought down here to have it inspected by a local Bonanza specialist. I found out later (on bonanza.org) that this Bonanza shop is one of the most respected in the country. They did a thorough pre-buy and turned up quite a few squawks that a non-Bonanza specialist probably would have missed. The broker helped me to negotiate what I though was a very fair price and the process was very quick and painless. The biggest frustration was getting it down here do to weather and illnesses. But everything was handled smoothly and professionally.

If anyone wants a recommendation for an excellent broker, and a great boananza shop, let me know.
 
JOhnH said:
This thread reenforces my decision to sell my C-172 then buy through a broker. I did it partially because I was lazy and partially because I didn't feel confident to do it right myself. And I also got some good recommendations from my A&P and others for this broker.

The broker suggested a selling price that I thought was low, but he based it on the fact that it had incomplete log books. I was told on this board that I would never get that price because of the logs. The plane sold in about 3 weeks at the asking price. I have to admit I thought I asked too little, but I was glad the process was quick and painless.

Then he found me a very nice replacement plane (Bonanza). He arranged the logistics of having it brought down here to have it inspected by a local Bonanza specialist. I found out later (on bonanza.org) that this Bonanza shop is one of the most respected in the country. They did a thorough pre-buy and turned up quite a few squawks that a non-Bonanza specialist probably would have missed. The broker helped me to negotiate what I though was a very fair price and the process was very quick and painless. The biggest frustration was getting it down here do to weather and illnesses. But everything was handled smoothly and professionally.

If anyone wants a recommendation for an excellent broker, and a great boananza shop, let me know.
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BTW, when are you and Leslie gonna fly to FXE and show me the new plane?
 
Henning said:
BTW, when are you and Leslie gonna fly to FXE and show me the new plane?
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Leslie is about 7.5 hours into her 15 hours of required dual instruction. But she needs 25 hrs total "in type" before she can take you up. It takes a while to get those hours when you work full time and have to work around the weather and the instructors schedule. She had a good session on Sunday doing cross wind landings in 25kt gusts. The Bonanza does seem to handle that a lot better than the 172 did though.

But FXE is one of the first destinations on our list after this part is over.
 
JOhnH said:
Leslie is about 7.5 hours into her 15 hours of required dual instruction. But she needs 25 hrs total "in type" before she can take you up. It takes a while to get those hours when you work full time and have to work around the weather and the instructors schedule. She had a good session on Sunday doing cross wind landings in 25kt gusts. The Bonanza does seem to handle that a lot better than the 172 did though.

But FXE is one of the first destinations on our list after this part is over.
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I bet I qualify under her insurance.:rofl: The Bonanza will always make you look good on a landing if you let it. That is the magic touch Walter Beech had, that is the reason they are as popular as they are.
 
Henning said:
NAAA priced my 310 at over $100k, I was asking $80k to take $70k, best offer I got was $45k.
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Well... That explains the gear up landing /total......:rolleyes:...

That Henning is a smart man....:yes:......:D
 
FlyingMonkey said:
From my experience the worthwhile planes only hand around a short time on the internet listing sites. You should take a look at features and prices for planes that have been listed a long time. When a good deal comes along try to make a reasonable offer very soon after the listing is published. Also, I myself was not comfortable if the owner did not offer digital scans of the logbooks. No way would
I make an offer or travel to see a plane without reviewing these. But that's just me....

I did notice that the good deals went pretty fast when I bought my plane.
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What he ^^^ said....

I looked for a year...Barnstormer and Controller every day (looking for a Bonanza in the $60K - $80K range) saw my plane come online the day the listing hit.. called, called, called everyday for three days straight, got a call back, went to look with my A&P, got the all clear, then went to fly it with my CFI and Bonanza expert, and made an offer 10% below asking which was accepted. Did the escrow thing and picked it up a few days later. I love my plane and it flys like a dream. It was a lot of effort and education. I never looked at Vref... know what plane fits your mission, know your budget then look at all the ads for that plane only. After months and months you will know the market and feel comfortable and confident.
 
Scud_072 said:
What he ^^^ said....

I looked for a year...Barnstormer and Controller every day (looking for a Bonanza in the $60K - $80K range) saw my plane come online the day the listing hit.. called, called, called everyday for three days straight, got a call back, went to look with my A&P, got the all clear, then went to fly it with my CFI and Bonanza expert, and made an offer 10% below asking which was accepted. Did the escrow thing and picked it up a few days later. I love my plane and it flys like a dream. It was a lot of effort and education. I never looked at Vref... know what plane fits your mission, know your budget then look at all the ads for that plane only. After months and months you will know the market and feel comfortable and confident.
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Even on planes already sold, many Sellers would tell me what it sold for. I assume most were honest in the number they were reporting.

I likely had better actual sales data than any service.
 
I also read that Vref is too high and have to admit that I only looked at it yesterday AFTER we made an offer for the plane which undergoes at this moment a pre-buy inspection at Cessna center. It is a inside and out not a like new but really nice 1966 Cessna 172 with 2x KX155 radios with a glideslope, an older King IFR GPS and a transponder. The aircraft total time is around 4000 hours, with around 1400 hours on the engine and prop. It was listed for $28,500, we offered $25,500, what the seller accepted.

Now, according to Vref the value would be $25,200. Frankly, to me this feels just about right. Despite of the relatively high time engine, I simply can't imagine that this is still too much for a nice 172 and that something around $20,000 would have been more reasonable!? I've been watching the market for quite some time know - the asking price of 'ours' was already rather at the lower end of the price / condition / equipment matrix. I find it hard to believe that a 30% discount on this (compared to other listings) reasonable asking price of $28,500 could be considered the norm.

Personally, I don't really care, because the plane is, except of the old GPS, exactly what we wanted (OK, we initially wanted a straight tail). I'd rather fly the plane we want today and pay a little bit more, than to wait for months for the ultimate bargain, which might possibly never come...
 
German guy said:
I also read that Vref is too high and have to admit that I only looked at it yesterday AFTER we made an offer for the plane which undergoes at this moment a pre-buy inspection at Cessna center. It is a inside and out not a like new but really nice 1966 Cessna 172 with 2x KX155 radios with a glideslope, an older King IFR GPS and a transponder. The aircraft total time is around 4000 hours, with around 1400 hours on the engine and prop. It was listed for $28,500, we offered $25,500, what the seller accepted.

Now, according to Vref the value would be $25,200. Frankly, to me this feels just about right. Despite of the relatively high time engine, I simply can't imagine that this is still too much for a nice 172 and that something around $20,000 would have been more reasonable!? I've been watching the market for quite some time know - the asking price of 'ours' was already rather at the lower end of the price / condition / equipment matrix. I find it hard to believe that a 30% discount on this (compared to other listings) reasonable asking price of $28,500 could be considered the norm.

Personally, I don't really care, because the plane is, except of the old GPS, exactly what we wanted (OK, we initially wanted a straight tail). I'd rather fly the plane we want today and pay a little bit more, than to wait for months for the ultimate bargain, which might possibly never come...
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$5k is a rounding error in the course of ownership. I have looked at a couple dozen 172s over the last few years for people and haven't really seen anything worth buying at the $20k level. You have the most important thing, you have a plane to start with and fly now, what comes up comes up, you can look for 5 years and that plane will have problems too. Enjoy the plane.
 
James331 said:
You're wasting your time.

No one cares about vref, get on all the sites like TAP, ASO, BarnStormers and look at comps.
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What comp do you use for "Call for Price"?
 
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