VFR planning over a day out...

cowman

cowman

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Cowman
Say you're a VFR only pilot and you have a flight you want to make.

You've got a 3 day window to make it. Today is IFR conditions, the TAF is telling you that tomorrow is going to be similar. The day after tomorrow is shown as "overcast" or "mostly cloudy" by non-aviation weather sources.

Is there any resource, method, black magic, etc that might allow one to peer past the TAF and see what kind of ceilings those "overcast" or "mostly cloudy" days might bring?
 
yes but it requires virgin human sacrifice...
 
If you restrict yourself to traditional aviation weather products, it's kind of limited. You can make some guesses based on the long term surface prog charts (watching the fronts and isobars).

For something past 30 hours, I'm checking other weather sources; weather.gov or commercial weather services.
 
cowman said:
Say you're a VFR only pilot and you have a flight you want to make.

You've got a 3 day window to make it. Today is IFR conditions, the TAF is telling you that tomorrow is going to be similar. The day after tomorrow is shown as "overcast" or "mostly cloudy" by non-aviation weather sources.

Is there any resource, method, black magic, etc that might allow one to peer past the TAF and see what kind of ceilings those "overcast" or "mostly cloudy" days might bring?
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How far is the flight????:dunno:
 
You can get an answer, but two days out, it's not terribly believable. Ceiling is a b**** to predict. So is visibility. That's why TAFs don't go out more than 36 hours (and most of them are 24).

rucsoundings.org will give you an answer, up to a week if you pull the GFS data. But that's rough.
 
For a quick look, I like: usairnet.com (see aviation weather). But that may not go out as far as you'd like.
 
Well this comes up rather frequently but the current flight I'm hoping to make is to ferry an airplane about 80nm ~40min to an airport near MSP.

I was hoping to do this tomorrow night and get a car ride home. Current information suggests that's not going to happen. I might have a chance Saturday morning or early in the afternoon... but I'd need to set up my transport in advance.

Sun is possible... yet also showing a chance of rain. Mon is also a possible.... although the goal was to have it there by Mon morning. Tues shows chance of snow showers. Wed finally is clear but that's 2 days late.

See this thread for the irritating pickle I'm now in: http://www.pilotsofamerica.com/forum/showthread.php?t=77459

Just need a good 2000' ceiling and >5m visibility for a little while and the mission is a go...
 
If you are trying to get over to the Twin Cities then my gut feeling is that there wont be much change from IFR conditions unless there's a cold front to blow things clean. I don't see anything like that in the forecast for at least more than a few days away.
It's been low IFR here the last two days and with these mild humid stagnant conditions, things are likely to stay that way for a while.
 
With the caveat that long range models are not great for giving you specific forecasts several days out...

I find it useful to look at the 3-5 day range on the GFS and Euro models to get a sense of the weather patterns that are expected to be in my area. I may not be able to know what time a front will pass for my return flight in 3 days, but at least I have a decent idea of whether high pressure is expected to dominate or a front will be passing through the area.

You might take a look at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MAV/
http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=pres&region=us&t=4p&expanddiv=hide_bar
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/
 
Gotta wait for the day and hope for the best. VFR Flights this time of year happen when they do. If you really need to make the trip, drive.
 
USAirnet.com forecasts cloud bases three days out. I've never found this forecast to be particularly accurate, though.

Windyty.com does the same. I've only used this site a few times recently, but it seems fairly accurate. Also gives an awesome graphic representation of winds on the surface and aloft.
 
Everyone in MN: please grab any fans you have in the house. Set them outside and point them to the east!

I have got to get an instrument rating. Too much going on to commit the time into it until summer/early fall next year but man this is getting old.
 
cowman said:
I have got to get an instrument rating. Too much going on to commit the time into it until summer/early fall next year but man this is getting old.
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I agree, but that might not help in this situation with low freezing levels and IMC.
 
Flying Viking said:
USAirnet.com forecasts cloud bases three days out. I've never found this forecast to be particularly accurate, though.
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Yeah I used to use that one but I found it to be laughably wrong. Lately it's been predicting 12,000' ceilings when the reality is closer 500.
 
cowman said:
Yeah I used to use that one but I found it to be laughably wrong. Lately it's been predicting 12,000' ceilings when the reality is closer 500.
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It shows Friday at 9am as having 500ft ceilings and 1/2 mile viz. Then 6 miles viz and >12k ceilings at noon. Yeah, it has bad data. What do you expect for an ultralight pilot's weather site?
 
cowman said:
Yeah I used to use that one but I found it to be laughably wrong. Lately it's been predicting 12,000' ceilings when the reality is closer 500.
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It's using GFS MOS guidance, so it's telling you the input data is not adequate for the purpose.
 
This time of year, Cowman, the IR doesn't help so much... More icing than a Food Network competition.
 
Clark1961 said:
yes but it requires virgin human sacrifice...
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J. Dunham to Achmed: "...but what if your 76 virgins are all guys?"


Cowman: Reach out to ScottD @ www.AvWxWorkshops.com and spend some money on one-on-one training. For about $120, you will get a few hours with him showing you how to use the existing weather products to answer your planning question. He will show you a good method, system, sequence to determine what the weather is likely to do, and how make a good aviation decision.

I've done that and came away with an excellent set of notes to aid me in planning.
 
Wouldn't be a bad thing. I've been surprised by good weather quite a few times too.

Back in Sept I had a frustrating one. We were down at Osage Beach, MO hanging out with a friend and boating on the lake. We were planning on heading home the next morning and I checked the weather... all clear until about 30 minutes from home and then marginal VFR. I decided I didn't like it but we could cruise at 2000' for the last half hour of a 3.5hr flight and it would be fine.

I woke up the next morning and it was all IFR conditions up there and the new forecast TAF was saying 1000' or less ceilings at home. My buddy was our ground transport and he had to go to work so I had to make a choice whether to just check back into the hotel for another day or most likely be stranded at the airport all day. I checked back into the hotel... naturally by around noon a new forecast came out and it was acceptable VFR conditions. Then that afternoon the actual was better than forecast.

So I look at the forecast for the next day... and now it's looking marginal VFR and IFR almost all the way home. However in the afternoon there might be enough of a window. The next day I had my buddy drop us off at the FBO. I loaded up our bags, preflighted the airplane, and waited. Spent the entire morning on an FBO couch trying to avoid the gaze of an irritated spouse and reloading the METARs data on my ipad... forecast conditions were broken 2000.... actual was 700-1200.

My buddy got us for lunch over his break, we ate then returned to the FBO couch. Right around 2:30pm I again checked my iPad and saw a nice corridor all the way up with at least my personal minimum 2000' ceilings. Told the wife to go to the bathroom and load up.

I departed and chose a cruising altitude of 3500'... expecting within 30 minutes or so to be ducking under the marginal weather. I maintained 3500 all the way home and would describe the actual sky conditions as "clear" for the entire flight.
 
This is why I haven't done any and I am actually quite reluctant to do any long cross country flights until I get my instrument rating in a couple of years. Particularly weekend trips back home to Cedar Rapids.
 
I will note that you've had 4 months to get an IFR rating. While that does not help in ZR and snow etc . . . if you had a 1000' ceiling in rain . . .with the freezing level at 7-8k - an a good skew-T - its eminently doable. instead you are worrying about a 3000' ceiling during the worst time of year for fliable VFR in the northern Midwest.

I would look at the forecast Skew-T products - many places - google is your friend.

See what the ceilings are forecast to be using the GFS and NAM and worry all you want, but the only forecast that will matter is the one that verifies. . . . i.e., the actual weather.
 
cowman said:
Say you're a VFR only pilot and you have a flight you want to make.

You've got a 3 day window to make it. Today is IFR conditions, the TAF is telling you that tomorrow is going to be similar. The day after tomorrow is shown as "overcast" or "mostly cloudy" by non-aviation weather sources.

Is there any resource, method, black magic, etc that might allow one to peer past the TAF and see what kind of ceilings those "overcast" or "mostly cloudy" days might bring?
Click to expand...

Did ya get the plane repositioned today???:dunno:
 
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