Van's RV-10 down in Marin Headlands - two dead

exncsurfer said:
Yeah, not implying airspace avoidance had anything to do with it. I'm just saying it may have helped to get ATC assistance with navigation to help get back to vmc.(if it was vfr into imc that was the cause) We don't know if it was, or how much time he had in imc before it was too late. I just mentioned 'Bravo' because I think that was the last transmission.
Click to expand...
Gotcha. And who knows. Maybe it just rattled him.
 
You know, the funny thing is yesterday, at the pub I was just talking to a guy that knew the people on the plane and we were discussing crashes. I was unaware that the crash just happened on Friday.
 
Turbo-Arrow-Driver said:
Here's the Flight Aware data as seen in Google Earth. I've added altitude and ground speed data from the log. Data points in RED are ADSB reports, and in green are radar reports (first one from NorCal Tracon, rest from Oakland Center).

There's one pirep from over SFO almost two hours after the accident, showing SCT 012, tops 025. Another from Napa (APC) about an hour before the accident shows bases as 020, tops 025.

I don't know how accurate the radar ground speed reports are if the a/c is maneuvering. That said, it's showing some fairly low ground speed values at times. The radar that would have been tracking that is (I believe -- can someone confirm?) on Mt. Tamalpias just to the North a few miles, so those locations from Oakland Center should be pretty accurate.

Maybe the U-turn over San Francisco is where ATC told him to remain clear of Bravo...?

Anyway, just some more grist for the mill.
Click to expand...

According to this track, the RV was just 140 feet away from hitting the Golden Gate Bridge. I think he was in imc at that point. I doubt he was site seeing being that close.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 
Peter Anderson said:
According to this track, the RV was just 140 feet away from hitting the Golden Gate Bridge. I think he was in imc at that point. I doubt he was site seeing being that close.
Click to expand...

I notice that just after the first pass over the GG bridge, he climbs from 1175' to 1975' quickly, and airspeed drops from 134kt to 70kt -- and that's ADSB data, so speeds s/b accurate. 70kts is pretty slow. That may have been done to get back on top.

By itself, this doesn't prove anything, but does suggest the pilot was flying around the edge of a stratus deck, or around holes therein.

The excursion to the South end of the bridge at 900' may have taken him through an opening, and below the ceiling. The last two radar pings at the North end of the bridge at 800' and 900' may have been below the ceiling there, but he doesn't climb back up on the return leg. Perhaps the hole had closed?

It would be interesting to compare the time of his U-turn over SF with the final ATC instruction to remain clear of Bravo -- if they coincide, it may indicate he was hoping to get a low-altitude VFR clearance through the Bravo surface area down to Half Moon Bay (KHAF?) -- all of it under the ceiling. I don't know about KHAF, but it is (or used to be) common for VFR a/c to get vectored at or below 1500' along Hwy 101 and directly over KSFO for destinations of San Carlos and Palo Alto.

Note: Found the ATC tapes, and last exchange occurs 30 sec before a/c appears on the map I posted above, so all of that maneuvering is done with no ATC contact. I also checked the tapes for the ZOA sector just north of there...nothing there either.
 
Last edited:
Peter Anderson said:
According to this track, the RV was just 140 feet away from hitting the Golden Gate Bridge. I think he was in imc at that point. I doubt he was site seeing being that close.
Click to expand...
I thought the Golden Gate Bridge in fog usually looks like this. Was anyone in that area yesterday that can confirm that it did/didn't?
7016148_large_1554827318.jpg
 
Not much here that isn't already known:

 
asicer said:
I thought the Golden Gate Bridge in fog usually looks like this. Was anyone in that area yesterday that can confirm that it did/didn't?
7016148_large_1554827318.jpg
Click to expand...

That's a summer pattern with high pressure and dry air above. The day of the accident was a more winter or spring like day, with coastal clouds at ground level, but broken cloud layers from 1000-3000 as well.
 
If they took off from the SAC area, good WX, VMC, why mess with Golden Gate fog? That’s my question.
 
Daleandee said:
Not much here that isn't already known:

Click to expand...
Thanks for that video. He's getting ADS-B data from a different source (ADSB Exchange) and there's a lot more than you see on FlightAware. It appears you get what you pay for -- I don't think ADSB Exchange data is free.
 
Last edited:
Hopefully the NTSB will locate and interview that instructor. Reminds me of a fatal accident in Ukiah, Ca in 2004 in which the newly minted VFR pilot had similar traits. He departed KUKI in IMC to get a cup of coffee at KWLW. Ruined a brand new Saratoga in the process (date was 4/4/2004 if you want to look up the report).
 
The sad part is the poor lady riding with him had no idea what kind of pilot she is strapping into the right seat with.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
 
Turbo-Arrow-Driver said:
Hopefully the NTSB will locate and interview that instructor. Reminds me of a fatal accident in Ukiah, Ca in 2004 in which the newly minted VFR pilot had similar traits. He departed KUKI in IMC to get a cup of coffee at KWLW. Ruined a brand new Saratoga in the process (date was 4/4/2004 if you want to look up the report).
Click to expand...
And then there was the guy who wanted to get to Martha’s Vineyard. You can talk until you’re blue in the face to folk like this and they won’t hear a word you’re saying. It’s gonna keep happening just as it always has.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top