Too much alarmism

TexasAviation

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TexasAviation
There seems to be a fair amount of alarmism in the GA world. When I first Googled "general aviation forum" — which led me to this site — the post that popped up at the top was titled "Is General Aviation Dying in the USA?" (http://www.pilotsofamerica.com/forum/showthread.php?t=41566).

And I've continued to stumble across posts like this: "Is the bottom going to fall out of the used GA market?" (http://www.pilotsofamerica.com/forum/showthread.php?t=69166).

As I get ready to plunk down some money on training and eventually buy a plane within the next couple of years, I'm not too worried about that kind of talk. I know aviation has long gone through boom-and-bust cycles, and even though aging baby boomers are going to present a demographic challenge in GA — to put it mildly — there are always going to be people like me who see falling plane prices as an opportunity to buy, if that actually comes to pass.

I'm also not convinced that aviation has gotten too expensive. It's never been a hobby for broke people, but it's also never been a hobby exclusively for rich people. If you've got modest means and make the right decisions, you'll be able to find your way into flying at some point, even if the cost of entry continues to climb.

It's just a matter of priorities.

My great-grandfather, the story goes, came from a fairly well-off family. When he graduated from high school in the 1920s, his dad offered to buy him either a college education or an airplane. He picked the plane, which led to lots of adventures, an early career as a pilot and set the direction for the rest of his life. But even in a moderately wealthy family, he had to make a huge sacrifice to fly.

I also know planes have always been expensive to own and operate. No matter the price of fuel, planes burn a lot more of it than cars do. No matter the price of maintenance, planes need a lot more of it than cars do. And as the average transaction price of new cars has climbed over $30,000 lately, the fact that you can still buy a little Cessna to putter around in for that same price (or less) makes it seem like a small investment, even given the sometimes outrageous operating and maintenance costs involved.

Yes, aviation is expensive, but no, it's nowhere near end-of-the-world expensive. Not even close.

The bigger worry to me is that a lot of people my age (I'm in my early 30s) have made some monumentally stupid decisions with money that could prevent them from flying even if they wanted to. Many of my friends have gone into huge debt to earn college degrees in fields with a questionable monetary value; they borrow up to their eyeballs to buy the most expensive house they can afford; they borrow more to drive flashy new cars; they borrow still more for boats, motorcycles, jet skis, ATVs and similar toys; and some of them aren't saving much for retirement. Even with two incomes, I know a lot of these young families are struggling to pay all those bills, much less think about flying an airplane.

But ...

For people who make it a priority, it's still very much attainable. There might be some tough times ahead for GA — as there always have been historically — but it offers enough benefits and enjoyment that there will also always be people who are willing to pay the price to follow that dream.
 
My great-grandfather, the story goes, came from a fairly well-off family. When he graduated from high school in the 1920s, his dad offered to buy him either a college education or an airplane. He picked the plane, which led to lots of adventures, an early career as a pilot and set the direction for the rest of his life.

Sounds a bit like the start of Lindbergh's story. I'd guess that happened to a lot of young men in the early 20s. Welcome to POA.
 
Sounds a bit like the start of Lindbergh's story. I'd guess that happened to a lot of young men in the early 20s. Welcome to POA.

Thanks! And yes, it's also possible that the family history wires got crossed with the Lindbergh history wires at some point, too.
 
Welcome to the board,always appreciate a good post.
 
Ten years ago when I started flying vintage airframes were still appreciating in value. They are no longer, there has been a massive correction in the market. I suspect that has lots of people a bit spooked.
 
Ten years ago when I started flying vintage airframes were still appreciating in value.
Ever consider that might have been an aberration in the market? Unless you have some kind of antique or classic car it's not going to be appreciating either.
 
Ever consider that might have been an aberration in the market? Unless you have some kind of antique or classic car it's not going to be appreciating either.

Without saying. The pilot population was not declining at the same rate as airframes, and few few aircraft were manufactured for close to a decade. In addition, technology was not yet available or in use to allow kit aircraft to be assembled as easily as they can be today.
 
In an industry and hobby area that already has barriers, the additional barrier of non-sense bureaucracy that is growing every year is a killer. I just sold my plane because I am no longer willing to do a bunch of ridiculous things to be able to fly.
 
Without saying. The pilot population was not declining at the same rate as airframes, and few few aircraft were manufactured for close to a decade. In addition, technology was not yet available or in use to allow kit aircraft to be assembled as easily as they can be today.
Right. People were very happy when new aircraft manufacturing started up again and I'm sure people are happy about greater convenience of kits, but that eventually killed the value of people's 50-year-old airplanes.
 
Right. People were very happy when new aircraft manufacturing started up again and I'm sure people are happy about greater convenience of kits, but that eventually killed the value of people's 50-year-old airplanes.

That's one reason. Another related reason is that the cost of keeping an older aircraft operating has increased significantly - to the point where it becomes cheaper to part out an airframe than to maintain it.

Case in point: my last annual was a significant percentage of the value of the plane. Biggest expense: cleaning and resealing the tanks, including removal of some kind of "unapproved" sealant used on the airframe (which took many hours & different solvents to remove). The new sealant would not adhere to the old stuff, which did not come off as approved sealant would. Add in the cost of any avionics upgrades, including ADS-B, and you rapidly approach the value of the airframe. If the value of the parted-out airframe exceeds the value of the unmaintained airframe less the cost of maintenance, then it's more economic to part it out. Add insurance, training, database costs, hangar, etc. and it adds up.

My fixed cost, before adding any fuel, is about $10K/year (the hangar alone approaches $5K). It doesn't take many years at all to approach the salvage value of the plane. Maintenance parts for older planes are also difficult - Lycoming wants >$1,000 for the cable to the turbo wastegate. The attached rod-ends are hundreds of dollars.

Now add-in the stock market declines, salary squeeze at many companies, and the need to save for retirement and there's not much left for the discretionary ownership of a plane.
 
People are alarmed that the 'airplane investment' lies they told themselves are beyond false.
 
That's one reason. Another related reason is that the cost of keeping an older aircraft operating has increased significantly - to the point where it becomes cheaper to part out an airframe than to maintain it.

This is utterly true, and will play out even more as more of our aircraft require engine overhauls or new paint, neither of which is getting any cheaper any time soon.

That said, as more aircraft leave the fleet the remainders become that much more valuable. And of course, even if you do go over your head keeping an airplane going, the investment is nothing compared to purchasing a new one, which will depreciate even more after you've flown it a bit.
 
That said, as more aircraft leave the fleet the remainders become that much more valuable.

Only to a point. For the less common birds, reducing the fleet increases the cost of maintenance as parts are less available & there is far less support for them. That decreases value as folks realize that maintenance cost is impacted. Total cost of ownership.....

And of course, even if you do go over your head keeping an airplane going, the investment is nothing compared to purchasing a new one, which will depreciate even more after you've flown it a bit.

To a point. The initial depreciation is pretty steep, but flattens out after a while.

E-AB is AN answer, though there will still be questions of how well it was built & how it was modded.
 
For people who make it a priority, it's still very much attainable. There might be some tough times ahead for GA — as there always have been historically — but it offers enough benefits and enjoyment that there will also always be people who are willing to pay the price to follow that dream.

Agreed. You can't have the best toys if you're trying to have the most toys.
 
As the old-timer once said to the newbie complaining about the cost of aviation: "Son, aviation doesn't cost any more today than when I learned to fly. It only takes every dollar you got."
 
That's one reason. Another related reason is that the cost of keeping an older aircraft operating has increased significantly - to the point where it becomes cheaper to part out an airframe than to maintain it.

Case in point: my last annual was a significant percentage of the value of the plane. Biggest expense: cleaning and resealing the tanks, including removal of some kind of "unapproved" sealant used on the airframe (which took many hours & different solvents to remove). The new sealant would not adhere to the old stuff, which did not come off as approved sealant would. Add in the cost of any avionics upgrades, including ADS-B, and you rapidly approach the value of the airframe. If the value of the parted-out airframe exceeds the value of the unmaintained airframe less the cost of maintenance, then it's more economic to part it out. Add insurance, training, database costs, hangar, etc. and it adds up.

My fixed cost, before adding any fuel, is about $10K/year (the hangar alone approaches $5K). It doesn't take many years at all to approach the salvage value of the plane. Maintenance parts for older planes are also difficult - Lycoming wants >$1,000 for the cable to the turbo wastegate. The attached rod-ends are hundreds of dollars.

Now add-in the stock market declines, salary squeeze at many companies, and the need to save for retirement and there's not much left for the discretionary ownership of a plane.


Yep, luckily there are still people around who will put the money in, that's why I bought my 310, most all the money had already been spent doing the big 40th annual/overhaul. All that was left was the panel, and I wish Garmin had come out with the 750 6 months earlier.


What type of turbo control cables do you have?
 
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Welcome TexaAviation. Enjoy your stay here.

I think the fact that the U.S. economy has been in the doldrums for so long now has a lot of people depressed in general. That bleeds over into the GA community, especially since aviating is very expensive compared to sitting in your recliner :).
 
Hi temp Teflon lined cable between wastegate and carb arm. Rod end at wastegate is special high-temp metal alloy.

But who makes it? Is it a Morse/Teleflex product? Lycoming doesn't make it.
 
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