This is one reason to believe that the FAA’s current aeromedical regime may actually _decrease_ the safety of flight. The regulations may create a much larger population of pilots flying with questionable health in order to avoid the problems with medical certification than the number of possible Lubitz’s they prevent. The ability to predict that kind of behavior is likely to be very poor.
It is a question of risk benefit trade off and I am not aware of studies to suggest that the current probing of mental health conditions by the FAA had improved the safety of flight. I’ve asked many times for references on that - so far nothing.
Lubitz presents an interesting question in my mind... Would he still have done it if the diagnosis didn't mean the end of not only his career flying but his flying career?
It's impossible to tell what was going through his mind, why someone decides to commit suicide is usually a very personal matter/thought process; why someone decides to commit suicide and take 149 people with them is even more difficult to understand but it seems like all everyone who ever knew the guy had to say in the wake of the incident (in terms of intent; accident to me implies a lack of intent i.e. accidental) was that he was a guy who truly loved and was passionate about flying.
Maybe its wishful thinking on my part but I'd like to think he might have been more willing to disclose his medical condition, seek help and perhaps even avoid taking his own life as well as the lives of 149 others, if the world did not look so bleak on the other side, if there was a light at the other end... He was facing the loss of his livelihood (career flying) and the loss of his ability to do the one thing he was passionate about and loved doing (flying career). By all accounts flying was his entire identity so rather than accept the loss of identity, he decided to end it. Now maybe instead of painting such a bleak picture, you leave him something... End his career flying (or at least flying passengers) so that he's not a threat to the 149 others on board the plane but let him keep his flying career and his identity as a pilot. Maybe that keeps him from reaching the precipice and deciding to end his life, maybe it doesnt...
Maybe he ends his life anyway but all we can ever do is work to mitigate the risk posed and burying our heads in the sand and pretending that pilots are automatons that dont suffer the full range of human emotions and yeah, sometimes even get depressed doesn't seem to me to be the right answer.
And here we have an example of where 87% of statistics are made up on the spot.
Active sport pilot certificate holders as of 12/31/2018: 6,246
Active PPL, CPL, and ATP certificate holders as of 12/31/2018: 425,720.
https://www.faa.gov/data_research/a...statistics/media/2018-civil-airmen-stats.xlsx
Not a good study whatsoever.
I dont agree with the idea of sport pilot medical accidents being used as a comparative to medical accidents of higher certificate levels but I understand what
@Warmi was getting at. The numbers you pulled shows only the number of sport pilot certificate holders and does not include those with "inactive" PPL/CPL/ATP certificates, flying under the sport pilot authorizations due to an expired medical.
So the hard numbers show 6,000 sport pilots but the statistics published dont show the attrition rate of Sport pilots or PPL/CPL/ATP holders or the cause for that attrition. Things get nebulous from there and difficult to track... I'm fairly certain we're producing more than 5,000 new PPL/CPL/ATP pilots per year but I dont know exactly how many... If we go by the growth in the number of student pilots, it's been close to 20k for the last 3 years. If we assume half of them wash out and never make it to a certificate, we're still talking about producing 10k more pilots per year which means we're losing 5k pilots per year to attrition. If we assume 60% of those had their medical revoked, retired from flying altogether or are now deceased that leaves 2,000 pilots per year that are no longer listed on the "active" pilot roles but may be exercising privileges under Sport pilot rules (or rolling the dice and still flying non-sport aircraft with expired/revoked medicals). That easily makes 10k sport pilots. Admittedly it doesn't account for the attrition of sport pilots who no longer fly at all but it also completely ignores the Ultralight category of aircraft and pilots therein.
From there the comparison gets more dubious as it assumes that the majority of people flying under LSA or Ultralight rules are doing so because they would not qualify for a medical. Allowing your medical to expire certainly suggest this but its definitely a situation where all widgets (ineligible for a medical) are gadgets (non-holder of a valid medical) but not all gadgets are widgets but if you take your cross section of 10,000 LSA/Ultralight pilots and look at the number of inflight medical incidents and compare it to any cross section of 10,000 PPL/CPL/ATP (or possibly the entire group of 425,000) you find that the per capita rate of medical incidents is the same... So you have 10,000 people, many of whom the FAA says shouldn't be allowed to fly by virtue of their medical status and inability to obtain, legally flying under another set of rules with a similar rate of incidence as those flying under the stricter ruleset. At least that's the theory; I dont have the actual numbers to back it up and like I said, I believe there are several stretches in this argument that I dont entirely buy it but I do understand what
@Warmi is getting at.
As several actual accidents have shown, the idea that the issuance of a medical certificate, whether it be a 3rd class or a 1st class, in some way makes us safer is just a lie we tell ourselves and in fact since many dont use their AME as their Primary Care Physician, it in some ways makes us less safe.
If it weren't for the lack of ability to track (and the loss of the cottage industry that has sprung up around medicals both issuing, reviewing and fighting denials) the entire AME structure could be gutted and replaced with "visit your PCP regularly" and would probably actually be safer as a result (a doctor that knows you, your medical history, your family's medical history and see's you regularly is more likely to catch changes).
Or they haven't interviewed him. Or they have and think he's completely off his rocker but can't do anything about it because of our "freedoms". I wouldn't take anything at face value here.
True, every situation could well be different and I cant speak to the Ops situation but if we include and extend the discussion beyond psychiatric disorder and guns, I do know people who would be automatically disqualified from an FAA medical but are considered qualified and possess licenses issued by other government agencies that seem similarly incongruent.
Those situations certainly extend beyond the right to bear arms under the second amendment. They're not my stories to tell though.
Since we're discussing rights vs privileges though, what about the right to liberty and the pursuit of happiness? For that matter what about the right to privacy? What business is it of the FAA that I "ever" saw a doctor for XYZ, especially if I was not over 18 at the time? Heck even getting a top secret security clearance for the federal government limits its scope to the last several years. There are parents with munchausen's that they project on to their kids or parents with drug issues that they project on to their kids to score prescription drugs and there are 18 year-olds today who are going to the doctor to get vaccinated for the first time because their parents were part of the anti-vaccine crowd.
Regardless of cause or situational nature, we've all generally agreed that 10 years without treatment/medication seems to be the FAA's requirement for them to classify you as having "recovered" from a depressive episode... So why does it matter that if a pilot had one 10+ years ago? What exactly are you looking for?
The generally accepted advice when it comes to finding an AME's seems to be "find an AME who's a pilot advocate, one that will look for reasons to pass your medical, not reasons to deny it" in addition to "visit the AME for a consult first; dont turn over any paperwork until you are sure you pass." I posit that this would be almost wholly unnecessary if the FAA were to themselves start treating the medical process as "reasons to pass, not deny."