The next Five years in General Aviation

[Scott@KTYR]

The next Five years in General Aviation will be historic.

In 2018 the Lead-free Aviation fuel is suppose to be on the market. With the possibility of just one supplier, how much will that cost!

In 2020 the ADS-B out requirement will start. I wonder how many GA plane owners will not equip their planes with the ADS-B out equipment and possibly stop flying because of the cost.

 

[dukeblue219]

In 2020 the ADS-B out requirement will start. I wonder how many GA plane owners will not equip their planes with the ADS-B out equipment and possibly stop flying because of the cost.

This has been beaten to death a thousand times before, but if you want my opinion, the numbers who stop flying will be insignificant. It will be a big deal to those pilots, but not to the overall community. They still have 5 years to install a $3k-$4k box, and only if they intend to fly in airspace where it is required.

There's just such a variety of different people involved in "GA" that it's hard to paint them all with one brush. The corporate folks obviously will be fine. The flight schools will be fine. The "rich guys" with new planes will be fine. The rural guys out in the boonies will not need to upgrade. The clubs and partnerships will be able to split the cost. I simply do not see a huge percentage of the owner-pilots out there, who were willing to spend $10k to get their certificate and $6/gal for AvGas, dropping out of flying altogether because of ADS-B. For some it will be political, or it will be the final straw in an expensive hobby, and that truly is a shame. But a large-scale exodus of pilots? I doubt it.

 

[Palmpilot]

The corporate folks obviously will be fine. The flight schools will be fine. The "rich guys" with new planes will be fine. The rural guys out in the boonies will not need to upgrade. The clubs and partnerships will be able to split the cost. I simply do not see a huge percentage of the owner-pilots out there, who were willing to spend $10k to get their certificate and $6/gal for AvGas, dropping out of flying altogether because of ADS-B. For some it will be political, or it will be the final straw in an expensive hobby, and that truly is a shame. But a large-scale exodus of pilots? I doubt it.

What will it do to the availability of rental planes? My experience is that they are not cash flow positive in the first place. And the last time I compared the number of pilots to the number of registered aircraft, it appeared that the majority of pilots fly planes that they do not own.

 

[rbridges]

This has been beaten to death a thousand times before, but if you want my opinion, the numbers who stop flying will be insignificant.

agreed. even without 2020 compliance, you can still fly in class D E and G as long as your under 10k feet. Still lots of places to fly with that restriction. anyway, it looks like you can get standalone kits in the $3-4K range. not chump change, but not 10+ grand either.

Honestly, I'm not sure where the lead free gas is headed. Hopefully it won't be awful.

 

[Mighty Mouse]

+1 for Ted. I don't think the ADSB will have any effect unless you were already contemplating going back to terrestrial. I will probably be one of those as I hit 68. However between now and then.......I'm flying the pi$$ out of Mighty Mouse.

 

[rbridges]

+1 for Ted. I don't think the ADSB will have any effect unless you were already contemplating going back to terrestrial. I will probably be one of those as I hit 68. However between now and then.......I'm flying the pi$$ out of Mighty Mouse.

If I were based at panama city, you'd have to pry the pilots certificate out of my cold dead fingers. We've had mooney summits there, and the view is absolutely gorgeous.

 

[Palmpilot]

agreed. even without 2020 compliance, you can still fly in class D E and G as long as your under 10k feet. Still lots of places to fly with that restriction.

I think you're overlooking the fact that class B and C airspace tends to cover areas with high population density, which means that's where a lot of pilots live.

anyway, it looks like you can get standalone kits in the $3-4K range. not chump change, but not 10+ grand either.

How much do you have to add for installation?

 

[Art VanDelay]

I guess not many of you were around back when transponders were not required. The mandate to add them looked exactly like this one. And all the Chicken Littles back then sound just like a lot of you guys right now - "The sky is falling" ! Well guess what ? The closer we got to the date in question the lower the price got on transponders as manufactures began to undercut each other. I look for the same thing to happen this time as well.

 

[Capt. Geoffrey Thorpe]

One could always go to a no-electric aircraft to avoid the cost of ADS-B.

The downside is that most Rotax powered aircraft have an electric system since it comes with the motor and non-Rotax aircraft need no-ethanol fuel.

 

[Jimmy cooper]

One could always go to a no-electric aircraft to avoid the cost of ADS-B.

The downside is that most Rotax powered aircraft have an electric system since it comes with the motor and non-Rotax aircraft need no-ethanol fuel.

Very difficult to hand prop a ROTAX 912. A taylorcraft or champ 85 hp maybe a better choice.

 

[poadeleted21]

I think you're overlooking the fact that class B and C airspace tends to cover areas with high population density, which means that's where a lot of pilots live.



How much do you have to add for installation?

And those are the people paying $500-$700 a month for a hangar at their Class B/C airport and I seriously doubt a couple months worth of hangar rent is going to cause them to hang it up. The rest of us are hangared out in the sticks. I was at KSAV for a while, the $400/mo rent for a community hangar got old very fast.

 

[poadeleted21]

I guess not many of you were around back when transponders were not required. The mandate to add them looked exactly like this one. And all the Chicken Littles back then sound just like a lot of you guys right now - "The sky is falling" ! Well guess what ? The closer we got to the date in question the lower the price got on transponders as manufactures began to undercut each other. I look for the same thing to happen this time as well.

That's what I'm gambling on, I updated the 530 to WAAS to get ahead of the curve but still haven't installed the rest of the hardware.

 

[Vance Breese]

I don’t know about the rest of general aviation for the next five years.
I will fly until it stops being fun and I doubt that will happen in the next five years.
I love to fly and being more expensive or requiring some expanded knowledge will not dissuade me.

 

[Capt. Geoffrey Thorpe]

Very difficult to hand prop a ROTAX 912. A taylorcraft or champ 85 hp maybe a better choice.

It's not that hard. Even a geezer can do it.

 

[steingar]

I wonder how many GA plane owners will not equip their planes with the ADS-B out equipment and possibly stop flying because of the cost.

I might be one of them. We'll have to see how much the box and its installation cost. My guess is big, since I can't see it being an easy install. I'm seeing 3AMUs for aircraft that already have a source of WAAS, so I suspect the price for me will be a significant fraction of what my ship is worth.

 

[steingar]

I guess not many of you were around back when transponders were not required. The mandate to add them looked exactly like this one. And all the Chicken Littles back then sound just like a lot of you guys right now - "The sky is falling" ! Well guess what ? The closer we got to the date in question the lower the price got on transponders as manufactures began to undercut each other. I look for the same thing to happen this time as well.

Back then aircraft were being manufactured, airframes were still appreciating and were still worth quite a bit of money, such that the transponder and its install didn't approach the value of the airframe.

My haven't times changed. Right on this board a flyable twin went to the scrap yard because no one wanted to buy it for the price of a Skyhawk.

 

[Jimmy cooper]

It's not that hard. Even a geezer can do it.

You obviously are not familiar with a 912 ROTAX. Hand propping is much much easier in a small lyc. Or continental, which in cold weather or being hot can also be a real pain in the azz! If you ask those who operate a 912 they will concur with what I've said. They also do not like av gas at all. If flown as the instructions read, they are excellent engines. Almost bullet proof. I want a rans courier real bad. I'm watching closely. Currently certified aircraft are really getting old, people flying around in 50 60 year olds that ought to be retired and paying often times more than they are worth. I don't think the future looks very good the way jobs have disappeared and wages are terrible.

 

[jsstevens]

You obviously are not familiar with a 912 ROTAX. Hand propping is much much easier in a small lyc. Or continental, which in cold weather or being hot can also be a real pain in the azz! If you ask those who operate a 912 they will concur with what I've said. They also do not like av gas at all. If flown as the instructions read, they are excellent engines. Almost bullet proof. I want a rans courier real bad. I'm watching closely. Currently certified aircraft are really getting old, people flying around in 50 60 year olds that ought to be retired and paying often times more than they are worth. I don't think the future looks very good the way jobs have disappeared and wages are terrible.

I'm pretty sure his plane has a Rotax in it.

 

[Palmpilot]

And those are the people paying $500-$700 a month for a hangar at their Class B/C airport and I seriously doubt a couple months worth of hangar rent is going to cause them to hang it up. The rest of us are hangared out in the sticks. I was at KSAV for a while, the $400/mo rent for a community hangar got old very fast.

Most of the urban pilots are probably renters. The owners of the planes they fly are probably not rich, or they wouldn't be leasing back their airplanes.

 

[Jimmy cooper]

I'm pretty sure his plane has a Rotax in it.

He may. The next question is how many times has he hand propped it? I've spoken to people who work on them and people who own them who tell me its a real problem and they ALWAYS keep a good battery in the plane. ( it comes with an electrical system) why would you prop it? Unless your careless. I'm speaking of a 912. I know nothing about other ROTAX models.

 

[Scott@KTYR]

I guess not many of you were around back when transponders were not required. The mandate to add them looked exactly like this one. And all the Chicken Littles back then sound just like a lot of you guys right now - "The sky is falling" ! Well guess what ? The closer we got to the date in question the lower the price got on transponders as manufactures began to undercut each other. I look for the same thing to happen this time as well.

 

[hindsight2020]

My haven't times changed. Right on this board a flyable twin went to the scrap yard because no one wanted to buy it for the price of a Skyhawk.

No, not flying, operating.....That flyable twin went to the scrap yard because no one wanted to fly an unobtanium pressure carb, PIA scavenger-hunt parts sourcing, museum job version of an airplane for Baron operating costs, without getting a Baron out of it.

If you could have operated it for skyhawk money with the same ease of all-parts sourcing as that of a skyhawk, I'd be the first one to pay cash today for the thing even though it's overkill for my mission.

As to ADS-b, nobody can speak intelligently about avionics pricing in 2020. With the implementation of primary non-commercial before 2020, all bets are off on the pricing department. If there is one game changer to GA in the next 5 years, it's gonna be that. The ability to install experimental avionics and the ability modify certified airplanes outside the usurious rent-seeking process we call the STC racket, will be the biggest improvement to GA since the inception of the experimental aircraft category itself.

 

[dukeblue219]

Most of the urban pilots are probably renters. The owners of the planes they fly are probably not rich, or they wouldn't be leasing back their airplanes.

??

I attended a couple leaseback seminars at my flight school, more out of curiosity about ownership than a real desire to leaseback, and most of the crowd was looking for bonus depreciation benefits if they bought a brand new Skyhawk and leased it back.

I won't say that it is or isn't a good idea, but I would guess most leaseback owners, especially in larger urban airports, are pretty well off and chasing after tax breaks rather than trying to subsidize their personal flying. That's why so many schools have so many S-model Skyhawks. Those of us who can't afford to own alone or don't fly enough to justify it (like me) are probably far better off with a partnership or small club than a leaseback just from an availability standpoint if nothing else.

 

[ClimbnSink]

Fleet will continue to shrink, pilots will continue to grow older and larger thus removing themselves from the title of pilot. I'm not worried I'll still have my fun, or a sailboat, maybe both.

 

[coloradobluesky]

I dunno, looks like Im gonna have to spring for a new transponder with ADSB out, and a new ELT. Each with their own outside antenna.

 

[Capt. Geoffrey Thorpe]

He may. The next question is how many times has he hand propped it? I've spoken to people who work on them and people who own them who tell me its a real problem and they ALWAYS keep a good battery in the plane. ( it comes with an electrical system) why would you prop it? Unless your careless. I'm speaking of a 912. I know nothing about other ROTAX models.

Probably a dozen or so times.

The "experts" will tell you that it is actually imposable. But it's not - you just have to give it a good fast flip.