Storm noise, airplane noise - race to final

gkainz

gkainz

Final Approach
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Greg Kainz
ON BJC 179@13, I heard the sound of a small plane hurrying towards KBJC at the same time as the thunder. I wonder which one made it first?

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I saw the same thing Friday near New Holland, PA.

A Mooney was maybe 2500' in and out of low clouds that were part of a a mass of thunderstorms moving in with a cold front.

I checked the news the next morning but no wrecks reported.

If he continues that method there will be one eventually.
 
Just noticed - that left most cloud looks like a hand reaching out to grab an airplane out of the sky ...
 
dmccormack said:
If he continues that method there will be one eventually.
Click to expand...
I don't understand that comment. If one were to enter that flight on a risk matrix, the probability of the eventuality you suggest would be the same. Each flight carries the same risk as any other flight given an unchanged conditions of flight. For change in risk, there would have to be a change in behavior, change in weather, change somewhere. Simply observing a 'risky' flight does not constitute increased risk.

I belabor the point because such perceptions may alter extrinsic perceptions of flights me and a whole bunch of other pilots make. Even to the point were those perceptions diverge from reality.
 
Richard said:
I don't understand that comment. If one were to enter that flight on a risk matrix, the probability of the eventuality you suggest would be the same. Each flight carries the same risk as any other flight given an unchanged conditions of flight. For change in risk, there would have to be a change in behavior, change in weather, change somewhere. Simply observing a 'risky' flight does not constitute increased risk.

I belabor the point because such perceptions may alter extrinsic perceptions of flights me and a whole bunch of other pilots make. Even to the point were those perceptions diverge from reality.
Click to expand...
The problem comes when having flirted with a T-storm once and survived, the next time gets easier, and perhaps, he risks a tad more.
You don't screw with Mother Nature. She's a B.... and she usually wins.
 
Richard said:
I don't understand that comment. If one were to enter that flight on a risk matrix, the probability of the eventuality you suggest would be the same. Each flight carries the same risk as any other flight given an unchanged conditions of flight. For change in risk, there would have to be a change in behavior, change in weather, change somewhere. Simply observing a 'risky' flight does not constitute increased risk.

I belabor the point because such perceptions may alter extrinsic perceptions of flights me and a whole bunch of other pilots make. Even to the point were those perceptions diverge from reality.
Click to expand...

Survive a hazardous situation enough times and it becomes commonplace, and normal caution abates.

See the problem?
 
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