"Staggering" Pilot Shortage?

B-b-but, we have to protect airlines' God-given right to pay below-market wages!
 
No worries, freemarket will sort the losers and fakes out.
 
I thought nobody wanted to fly anymore after reading the 'click-bait' stories of misbehaviors in the cabin?

What ever happened to the lady who said she had to pee in the cup?? Time to move to Amtrack.
 
FloridaPilot said:
To be honest, no one has a crystal ball but I believe other ways of travel is going to fix the pilot shortage eventually.

https://futurism.com/meet-the-near-supersonic-hyper-tube-train/

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/36966...l-between-london-and-edinburgh-in-30-minutes/


(IMO) People are more likely to get on a supersonic train then they are to get in an airplane because of the daily media "Butchering" of GA and the Airline Industry.
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Timeline on a lot of the hyperloop stuff is likely a decade or more away. The technology aspects can likely be solved much faster, but the land acquisition will stop it cold. Existing freight rail lines are not going to give up the tracks, the states cannot make eminent domain cases quickly; even in the politics allow it. Further, the hyperloop between DC and NYC will not reduce pilot demand very much. They already fly larger planes between those locations, generally same for all major city pairs. You need a lot of pilots to go from podunk to Chicago. And guess what, there is not enough volume there to support the hyperloop.

The real solution to the problem is pay, and slow market wage protections (from the boom/bust cycle).

Tim
 
tspear said:
Timeline on a lot of the hyperloop stuff is likely a decade or more away. The technology aspects can likely be solved much faster, but the land acquisition will stop it cold. Existing freight rail lines are not going to give up the tracks, the states cannot make eminent domain cases quickly; even in the politics allow it. Further, the hyperloop between DC and NYC will not reduce pilot demand very much. They already fly larger planes between those locations, generally same for all major city pairs. You need a lot of pilots to go from podunk to Chicago. And guess what, there is not enough volume there to support the hyperloop.

The real solution to the problem is pay, and slow market wage protections (from the boom/bust cycle).

Tim
Click to expand...

That is exactly what they said about the Tesla and how many people laughed at an electric car? thinking it was just a fad.....Now you see them all over. I gave up doubting Elon Musk a long time ago. 10 years is not that far away, I was thinking more of 20 years the actual building of the hyperloop, getting permits..etc is going to take up much of that time, We will see it in our lifetime. The Airline industry is a very competitive industry and wages probably won't change much.
 
I just hope pilot jobs stick around long enough for me to be one. No way in hell im getting on an autonomous plane. I just can't see that happening for many many years. It's gonna take a lot of evolution to get to that point.
 
FloridaPilot said:
That is exactly what they said about the Tesla and how many people laughed at an electric car? thinking it was just a fad.....Now you see them all over. I gave up doubting Elon Musk a long time ago. 10 years is not that far away, I was thinking more of 20 years the actual building of the hyperloop, getting permits..etc is going to take up much of that time, We will see it in our lifetime. The Airline industry is a very competitive industry and wages probably won't change much.
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Tesla was more of a pure technology play, and seeing the application of existing technology in a brute force manor. Further, the company had actually been developing the roadster for a few years and solving the technical problems before Elon Musk came in.
The problem for the Hyperloop is less technology and more real estate. This will be the stumbling block. Twenty, years, definitely. Ten, I tend to doubt it. And the pilot shortage timeline predictions are mostly focused on the next ten years, with some going out further.
Lastly, look where hyperloop has been discussed, between what city pairs? Will this really reduce the number of pilots?

Tim
 
CC268 said:
I just hope pilot jobs stick around long enough for me to be one. No way in hell im getting on an autonomous plane. I just can't see that happening for many many years. It's gonna take a lot of evolution to get to that point.
Click to expand...

Too late.

Tim
 
Wait until a couple of those hyperloop cars disintegrates in the tube. I can see people preferring airplanes!
 
CC268 said:
Too late? What does that mean? It's too late to be a pilot?
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Too late to avoid automation. A modern airline pilot is more of a systems manager then anything else.

Tim

Sent from my LG-H631 using Tapatalk
 
tspear said:
Too late to avoid automation. A modern airline pilot is more of a systems manager then anything else.
Click to expand...
An autonomous airliner is a MUCH bigger technical challenge than a human "managed" airliner that includes automated systems.
 
As much as I'm a fan of Elon Musk I just don't get how the Hyperloop is gonna work in earthquake prone areas, especially the underground portions. I can't imagine much worse than zipping along at 500 plus mph in an underground tube during an earthquake. The overland portions would be equally vulnerable just not as scary as being buried alive.
 
FloridaPilot said:
To be honest, no one has a crystal ball but I believe other ways of travel is going to fix the pilot shortage eventually.

https://futurism.com/meet-the-near-supersonic-hyper-tube-train/

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/36966...l-between-london-and-edinburgh-in-30-minutes/


(IMO) People are more likely to get on a supersonic train then they are to get in an airplane because of the daily media "Butchering" of GA and the Airline Industry.
Click to expand...

It's almost like the media can't decide on who they like picking on more. Seems it's either Trump or United Airlines !
 
tspear said:
Too late to avoid automation. A modern airline pilot is more of a systems manager then anything else.

Tim

Sent from my LG-H631 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Well, the definition of autonomous is no human intervention. That hasn't happened yet in day to day airline operations.
 
Art VanDelay said:
As much as I'm a fan of Elon Musk I just don't get how the Hyperloop is gonna work in earthquake prone areas, especially the underground portions. I can't imagine much worse than zipping along at 500 plus mph in an underground tube during an earthquake. The overland portions would be equally vulnerable just not as scary as being buried alive.
Click to expand...

What is it about tech billionaires and losing touch with reality. Musk is trying to build a hyperloop while colonizing other planets. Zuckerberg thinks robots are going to take all our jerbs and we'll be living in a VR world. Bezos is eating large beetles, building robots and going to space.
 
FloridaPilot said:
That is exactly what they said about the Tesla and how many people laughed at an electric car? thinking it was just a fad.....Now you see them all over. I gave up doubting Elon Musk a long time ago. 10 years is not that far away, I was thinking more of 20 years the actual building of the hyperloop, getting permits..etc is going to take up much of that time, We will see it in our lifetime. The Airline industry is a very competitive industry and wages probably won't change much.
Click to expand...

I'm still laughing at Tesla. They cannot exist without the $7500/car tax credit, Solar City was losing $ and was absorbed into Tesla. How does this story end?
 
tspear said:
Too late to avoid automation. A modern airline pilot is more of a systems manager then anything else.

Tim

Sent from my LG-H631 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Well yea...automation is part of every industry and unfortunately its taking more of a foothold in every industry. But I don't see fully autonomous airplanes being used for a long time. I suppose we can agree to disagree if need be. I respect your opinion if you think otherwise - I could be wrong!
 
Trains aren't even automated and they ride on rails. What on earth makes you think aircraft will go first?
 
Palmpilot said:
An autonomous airliner is a MUCH bigger technical challenge than a human "managed" airliner that includes automated systems.
Click to expand...

Depends. Twenty years ago, no plane could be flown without a flight engineer. In the Air Force, no fighter/attack aircraft could be single crew. The flight engineer was eliminated on all new aircraft, the F18, F22 and F35 are all single pilot and can perform multi-roles including attack.
The workload and automation keeps removing tasks for the pilot and the co-pilot.
I would think economics will drive the next generation of airlines (about a decade away) to single pilot with a remote backup.
The generation after will likely go without a pilot and a remote systems manager.

Tim
 
Cpt_Kirk said:
Trains aren't even automated and they ride on rails. What on earth makes you think aircraft will go first?
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Money. Train engineers make less money, and are a significantly smaller portion of the costs to operate.
I forget the airline, but they calculated changing to iPads instead of paper charts saved 75lbs per flight and roughly $200K a year in fuel costs (if memory serves). Think how much the airline will save in fuel to eliminate the 200lb co-pilot? Let alone the salary and benefits.

Tim
 
tspear said:
Depends. Twenty years ago, no plane could be flown without a flight engineer. In the Air Force, no fighter/attack aircraft could be single crew. The flight engineer was eliminated on all new aircraft, the F18, F22 and F35 are all single pilot and can perform multi-roles including attack.
The workload and automation keeps removing tasks for the pilot and the co-pilot.
I would think economics will drive the next generation of airlines (about a decade away) to single pilot with a remote backup.
The generation after will likely go without a pilot and a remote systems manager.

Tim
Click to expand...

While I do agree that automation will make airliners easy enough to handle for single pilots, you leave out one critical point from discussion.. that is ADM. I don't think we will see single pilot airliners any time soon for that reason.
 
dell30rb said:
While I do agree that automation will make airliners easy enough to handle for single pilots, you leave out one critical point from discussion.. that is ADM. I don't think we will see single pilot airliners any time soon for that reason.
Click to expand...

Why I stated, remote backup. As in a remote co-pilot.

Tim
 
tspear said:
Depends. Twenty years ago, no plane could be flown without a flight engineer. In the Air Force, no fighter/attack aircraft could be single crew. The flight engineer was eliminated on all new aircraft, the F18, F22 and F35 are all single pilot and can perform multi-roles including attack.
The workload and automation keeps removing tasks for the pilot and the co-pilot.
I would think economics will drive the next generation of airlines (about a decade away) to single pilot with a remote backup.
The generation after will likely go without a pilot and a remote systems manager.

Tim
Click to expand...

Decade away? No way...no way there is fully autonomous airliners in 20 years.
 
Last edited:
Datadriver said:
I'm still laughing at Tesla. They cannot exist without the $7500/car tax credit, Solar City was losing $ and was absorbed into Tesla. How does this story end?
Click to expand...
Well that tax credit is about to go away. IIRC it was only supposed to be for the first 200,000 vehicles. Once they pass that mark no more federal tax credits for their vehicles.
 
tspear said:
Depends. Twenty years ago, no plane could be flown without a flight engineer. In the Air Force, no fighter/attack aircraft could be single crew. The flight engineer was eliminated on all new aircraft, the F18, F22 and F35 are all single pilot and can perform multi-roles including attack.
The workload and automation keeps removing tasks for the pilot and the co-pilot.
I would think economics will drive the next generation of airlines (about a decade away) to single pilot with a remote backup.
The generation after will likely go without a pilot and a remote systems manager.

Tim
Click to expand...

Planes have flown without a FE for far longer than 20 years.

There were single pilot fighters in WWI, WWII, Korea and Vietnam.

Not sure where you pull your info from.
 
tspear said:
Money. Train engineers make less money, and are a significantly smaller portion of the costs to operate.
I forget the airline, but they calculated changing to iPads instead of paper charts saved 75lbs per flight and roughly $200K a year in fuel costs (if memory serves). Think how much the airline will save in fuel to eliminate the 200lb co-pilot? Let alone the salary and benefits.

Tim
Click to expand...
Train automation is already mandated by law (Amtrak is apparently behind in their deployment, which has caused a local stink here, when a train blazed through a curve at double the speed and almost cause a derailment).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_train_control

http://www.sacbee.com/news/local/transportation/article141141368.html

The National Transportation Safety Board concluded the Philadelphia crash likely would not have occurred if the train had been equipped with a computer-based automatic braking system known as Positive Train Control, or PTC. Similarly, UP officials told The Bee that they believe PTC would have averted the December Amtrak jolt near Davis because the computer would have taken control of the train when the engineer failed to slow it.

Amtrak, UP and other train operators are under federal mandate to have PTC installed by the end of 2018.
Click to expand...
 
CC268 said:
Decade away? No way...no way there is fully autonomous airliners in 20 years.
Click to expand...

The flying part can be done today, the ATC verbal communication has to go. We'd have to add brake servos to the autopilot and add some smarts to handle frozen pitot tubes and other sensor errors.
 
Art VanDelay said:
As much as I'm a fan of Elon Musk I just don't get how the Hyperloop is gonna work in earthquake prone areas, especially the underground portions. I can't imagine much worse than zipping along at 500 plus mph in an underground tube during an earthquake. The overland portions would be equally vulnerable just not as scary as being buried alive.
Click to expand...

500 mph in a tunnel when an earthquake fills in the tunnel? You will be dead a split second before you're buried for sure.
 
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