There are other things at play that I think are harder to determine and you have to go with more of a gut than raw scientific/analytical numbers. For example, moving demand of a product helps to get it more efficient since that's the way of all technology as competition increases. So to that end, more consumer solar means more opportunity for companies to come in, competition, industry growth, technology growth, lower costs, more efficient production technologies, and then the equation shifts later on. Then you have the extra benefits such as rooftop solar, while suboptimal from a solar power perspective since you have the inefficiencies of the roof itself, helps to insulate the roof from the sun's rays, helping to lower your summer cooling bills. This was the biggest benefit of our solar pool heat. How would PV panels work in that situation? I'd imagine they'd have a similar effect although not 1:1. And we aren't getting another pool. But, I would like them on my shop as I feel like the combination of improved shop comfort and reduced electric bill would make it worthwhile... if I can actually find someone who's halfway decent.
China went all in on Solar in 2009, subsidizing the SOE (State owned enterprises) and facing the wrath of the Obama administration with 156% tariffs after their own subsidized effort (Solyndra) failed massively.
At the founding of Solyndra the prices were $1.50 to $2.00 a watt for solar, now it is less than $0.20 a watt to manufacture . The Chinese, as with any new industry there, overbuilt production by a factor of 3. There was a huge glut, which drove prices down to the point that companies that were selling panels here and in Europe were going out of business because their inventories were dropping in value every single day. Hard to make money when you buy a panel at $0.50 a watt and by the time you get around to selling it, you have to meet the market at $0.40 a watt. You can't make that up in volume. The manufacturers were subsidized so they didn't care if they were losing money, they all wanted market share. The race to the bottom
It's also why the big players got out of the business. When you see a brand name you know on a solar panel, they usually don't make it, it's a marketing deal with the Chinese to use the name of the big corporate client to generate sales. The big company charges a fee for the use of that name, thus guaranteeing themselves a profit and distancing themselves from the volatile nature of the business.
What that did is force the American owned distributors out of business, so now you see the Chinese own the whole supply chain, from wafers, to panels, to distribution in Europe and America. With that control, and the government in China cracking down on some companies outright fraud, the market has stabilized in the last couple of years.
I saw the first EVER increase in prices to manufacture this spring. That is good for the industry, as China is weaning it's SOE's away from the subsidized model. More stability and a known price equation will allow for a change in the industry as a whole.
We moved all of our production of solar out of China in 2013, the tariffs and hassle were just unbelievable. I pay a lot more, but I can sleep at night.
