JoseCuervo
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JoseCuervo
Self-directed Investing
- Thread starter asechrest
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ClimbnSink
Ejection Handle Pulled
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Greg
There is out of whack and completely rigged. Many believe the game is the latter. Of course the game needs people to believe to function.
No idea what your point is there. I was merely pointing out that I do not believe in an efficient market and its models (e.g. CAPM). This has nothing to do with law breaking or anything that needs to be regulated.
Well, read the book and tell me what you think.
Yes, it's trying to buy redemption.
EminiTrader
Cleared for Takeoff
been to Banyan many of time... Let's book it. I'm ready to roll the bones!
Yes, that was the way I saw it.
EminiTrader
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I don't follow CAT fundamentals. Not interested. I look at lower lows and lower highs. Here's a chart of my last 3 short trades on CAT. Notice once it broke down below the 200 day moving average, I shorted it (synthetic short) closed it.
Went up again, shorted it - started losing quickly - but I had Jan 16 options so no worries, turned back down. Then one more short that has just been closed out..
Technical analysis works for me. I am NOT a smart guy - I study the charts and I place trades based off of what I see - but CAT is always a good trade for me.
Warrior
Line Up and Wait
I have heard this advice for years. I recommend John Bogle's books. He will explain the magic of index funds. I paid 22 dollars for "The John Bogle Reader"
on Kindle. It will be a well spent 22 bucks if you buy it too and read it.
I have one trip to make to Seattle between now and March, flexible, outside of that nothing on the books till then; as of this posting. That can change in 1 minute though...
Let me know what works for you. Between now and Spring Break on Long Island, Atlantis has deals available.
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EminiTrader
Cleared for Takeoff
Henning - I just found this website that teaches you how to count cards.. think its a scam?
blackjackapprentice.com
I have 3 trips coming up between now and March - who all is interested??
Like I said earlier, with the modern shoes that got developed after the MIT scandal, counting cards is pretty useless because the count is continuously reset. Play Blackjack for fun and comraderie at the table. The best odds in the house is a behind the line bet on craps, and you can hedge your losses there, but in the end it's usually a fast way to lose a lot of money, same for roulette.
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EminiTrader
Cleared for Takeoff
Ok. well we still will go with the intent to lose - and get drunkFine by me
Exactly, if you approach the casino floor with your evening entertainment money, call it $100, you can get a lot of entertainment time at the Blackjack table, better than any other game I tried. Blackjack also provided me the most times that I left the evening with more than I started.
Ponies make me money, but I don't consider playing ponies entertainment, I consider that work.
More power to you. I don't have the stomach for it (technical analysis). It's more comfortable for me to value a company and buy it when I think the market has undervalued it (or sometimes short when the market overvalues...made a lot of money on Groupon in this regard)
txflyer
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Fly it like you STOL it ♦
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." -- W.B.
In Vegas there really are not that many Blackjack Continuous shuffle machines, and some very good double deck games that can easily be counted.
Alexb2000
En-Route
Watched a guy at the Bellagio go from $50 to $1000 dollars a hand toward the end of certain shoes, he was asked to leave.
Yeah, there's that. The double deck games on the strip pay 6-5 on a blackjack; they'll let you count cards all day long at those odds. With even basic shuffling machines (not the endless shoe shufflers), they can also 'shuffle up' to a new stack any time you raise your bet. Last, they can ask suspected counters to leave. Maybe conditions are better off the strip and away from the throngs of tourists?
All of which is a separate discussion from the thrust of this thread. I like investing, and I like gambling. Both have an element of risk. I do not believe that the stock market is simply a large casino, however, although individuals can certainly treat it that way if they like or choose to.
Hard rock double deck= pays 3:2 house only has a .19% edge over the basic strategy player.
M resort double deck pays 3:2 , dealer stands on 17, double on splits, resplit aces house has .14% edge over basic strategy player.
Counting beats them, doesn't take much to swing such a small advantage to the player.
Yep, but it also turns a game into work. Typically I am playing to kill time till the boss is ready to leave.
Alexb2000
En-Route
Are you a professional gambler or is this more of a rhetorical comment?
asechrest
En-Route
I think I read that the standard Blackjack tables at the Hard Rocks here in FL use 4 or 5 decks and the dealer shuffles at various points. Card counting can easily take multiple decks into account, but I think the random shuffling is what causes problems.
Not an expert so someone can correct me if I'm wrong.
Not an expert so someone can correct me if I'm wrong.
Its not random shuffling that hurts the (counting) player in multiple deck shoes, but limiting the depth of penetration. Think of the count +/- as a numerator, and the number of decks left is the denominator. A count of +10 with 2 decks left to play is more than twice the advantage to the player than being +10 with 5 decks left.
So if the house goes from 6 deck shoe with the cut card 2 decks from the bottom, to an 8-deck shoe with the cut card 3-4 decks from the bottom, they limit the ability to count into the shoe, while keeping the same penetration per shoe (no added down time for additional shuffling).
But this conversation really does need its own thread.
I learned how to count cards to keep my math skills sharp. Once you learn it is really pretty easy, memorizing all the matrices (play per dealer upcard vs. your cards predicated on the count) is a bit of work..
Started with a reason to fly to Vegas, actually, if you are not greedy at the tables you can easily pay for your trip.
No, I am not a professional gambler.
At the single decks penetration is usually 80%, double decks 55%-60%
JoseCuervo
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JoseCuervo
And a currency brokerage failed today with margin requirements of 2%.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah. I was going to make a comment about Black Swan but I'm sure there have been plenty of moves in currencies like the one the Swiss franc experienced in the past...not really the black at all.