Saratoga best for my flying?

[arkvet]

I was fortunate. I found mine within a day or so after it was listed.

I found mine within a couple hours of hitting barnstormers... when I wrote the check (in person) the next day, there was a waiting list of people wanting to make an offer.

 

[Rgbeard]

I found mine within a couple hours of hitting barnstormers... when I wrote the check (in person) the next day, there was a waiting list of people wanting to make an offer.

Same here - found on Barnstormers - wrote the check. I had two guys "behind me" with a check ready.

 

[Seminole Pilot]

Figured the market might be softening some but guess not. Thanks and I'll keep on the lookout. I really would like to finish up my IFR before purchasing but if the right one comes available that could change.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

Figured the market might be softening some but guess not. Thanks and I'll keep on the lookout. I really would like to finish up my IFR before purchasing but if the right one comes available that could change.

Best to be ready with your check, because "the right one" is not going to give you a chance to do things like arrange financing if you haven't already done them. If you don't have all your ducks in a row TODAY, "the right one" is going to be bought by someone else.

 

[hindsight2020]

Figured the market might be softening some but guess not. Thanks and I'll keep on the lookout. I really would like to finish up my IFR before purchasing but if the right one comes available that could change.

Oh it's softening, but these dynamics are beholden to the quarterly reporting our overlords live and die by. Shedding toys is not a leading indicator for financed millionaires, but lagging ones. As such, you're not gonna see an inventory dump in anticipation of the shave these folks are gonna take in their financial lives, but one done as a result of it. The country won't panic until after the quarterly reports come out. Employers react, and with it then do incomes and jobs. Two in a row sour quarterlies and it's open floodgates. I predict Q3 and 4 to be those, but some have suggested 2 and 3 might be all she wrote. We'll see. If you have 6 months, you should be able to see for yourself without committing early.

That's why this is not visible now, but it will in the late summer, as people take their last trips and say goodbye to the toy. I would be very hesitant on purchasing a PA-32-300 or 32R at the current pricing. You're gonna take a beating immediately in a year's time. Not a problem if you think it's a forever airplane. But that's what the people unloading them thought too, then life happened. Life's funny that way, it always keeps "happening" despite people's perennial optimism bias. Some on here who have lost airplanes are not even cryptic about it, they fully admit the bottom fell out and they lost it. What's worse, they say they'd do it again just the same. You can't fix that financial pathology.

I would not get bullied by 'you better have checkbook ready' anecdotes. I'd exercise more patience. I know, you want the airplane now, I get that. But we've seen inventory dumps before (2012), these things happen in cycles my ownership neophyte friend. Good luck to ya.

 

[Seminole Pilot]

Oh it's softening, but these dynamics are beholden to the quarterly reporting our overlords live and die by. Shedding toys is not a leading indicator for financed millionaires, but lagging ones. As such, you're not gonna see an inventory dump in anticipation of the shave these folks are gonna take in their financial lives, but one done as a result of it. The country won't panic until after the quarterly reports come out. Employers react, and with it then do incomes and jobs. Two in a row sour quarterlies and it's open floodgates. I predict Q3 and 4 to be those, but some have suggested 2 and 3 might be all she wrote. We'll see. If you have 6 months, you should be able to see for yourself without committing early.

That's why this is not visible now, but it will in the late summer, as people take their last trips and say goodbye to the toy. I would be very hesitant on purchasing a PA-32-300 or 32R at the current pricing. You're gonna take a beating immediately in a year's time. Not a problem if you think it's a forever airplane. But that's what the people unloading them thought too, then life happened. Life's funny that way, it always keeps "happening" despite people's perennial optimism bias. Some on here who have lost airplanes are not even cryptic about it, they fully admit the bottom fell out and they lost it. What's worse, they say they'd do it again just the same. You can't fix that financial pathology.

I would not get bullied by 'you better have checkbook ready' anecdotes. I'd exercise more patience. I know, you want the airplane now, I get that. But we've seen inventory dumps before (2012), these things happen in cycles my ownership neophyte friend. Good luck to ya.

Completely agree and I'm not in a rush to do something right this second unless a deal comes across that makes sense (cost wise and specs) and the last thing I'll do is handover a check just to get first in line. My idea as noted above it to finish up IFR this spring, then start looking for plane at that point late spring, summer, or fall as I do have time on my side and a 182 (my father's) to fly now.

 

[Seminole Pilot]

Not sure if this was answered earlier in this thread but anyone have first hand knowledge on difference in ground speed with a retractable vs fixed gear Saratoga? I just completed my bi-annual review today and was bouncing ideas of my instructor and he was recommending going the fixed gear route for many reasons (insurance, maintenance, but most importantly chance of forgetting to lower gear). I know there's got to be some difference in airspeed, but if it's negligible I think I might direct my search to fixed gear. My longest mission (route) as noted earlier would be about 900nm 6-8 times/year so just seeing how much it might affect my travel time....

 

[flyingcheesehead]

Not sure if this was answered earlier in this thread but anyone have first hand knowledge on difference in ground speed with a retractable vs fixed gear Saratoga? I just completed my bi-annual review today and was bouncing ideas of my instructor and he was recommending going the fixed gear route for many reasons (insurance, maintenance, but most importantly chance of forgetting to lower gear). I know there's got to be some difference in airspeed, but if it's negligible I think I might direct my search to fixed gear. My longest mission (route) as noted earlier would be about 900nm 6-8 times/year so just seeing how much it might affect my travel time....

As a general rule, the difference between the same aircraft type as a fixed vs. retract is about 15 knots, ±5. For example, our old 182 did about 133, the new R182 does about 150. Archer is ~115-120, Arrow is ~135-140.

BTW, we found that the difference between a fixed-gear 182 and a retract 182 on insurance was only about 10-15%. On a 'toga, I think the cost of maintenance on the gear is pretty minimal - a gear swing and a few extra parts to lube up at annual, no weak points like the Cessna or Comanche gear, etc. Once you figure out how many miles a year you're going to travel and account for the speed difference, you may find that your cost per mile is actually LOWER with the retract than the fixed.

I've heard all the horror stories about maintenance and insurance too, but in reality I wouldn't trade my retracts for anything. There's not a lot of reality to the stories except in the cases where there's a known weak point in the system (Cessnas with aluminum pivots, rigging on 310s, bungees on Comanches, etc).

 

[Seminole Pilot]

As a general rule, the difference between the same aircraft type as a fixed vs. retract is about 15 knots, ±5. For example, our old 182 did about 133, the new R182 does about 150. Archer is ~115-120, Arrow is ~135-140.

BTW, we found that the difference between a fixed-gear 182 and a retract 182 on insurance was only about 10-15%. On a 'toga, I think the cost of maintenance on the gear is pretty minimal - a gear swing and a few extra parts to lube up at annual, no weak points like the Cessna or Comanche gear, etc. Once you figure out how many miles a year you're going to travel and account for the speed difference, you may find that your cost per mile is actually LOWER with the retract than the fixed.

I've heard all the horror stories about maintenance and insurance too, but in reality I wouldn't trade my retracts for anything. There's not a lot of reality to the stories except in the cases where there's a known weak point in the system (Cessnas with aluminum pivots, rigging on 310s, bungees on Comanches, etc).

Thanks, you ever had any close calls in forgetting to put your gear down?

 

[Rgbeard]

I've had a close call not putting the gear UP! Haha.

I was taking off from SDM, and climbing towards SAN. Somehow - I don't know how - I didn't hit the switch.

I looked at my speed, and WOW, I was going so slow. Just a moment of looking around, and I had it.

As far as forgetting to put it down, I flew with an instructor, and we tried a gear-up approach intentionally, just to see how different it was.

I always put the gear down, and check four or more times coming in. I've never had a close one yet, and I am hopeful I would recognize the handling changes if I put myself in that situation.

 

[hindsight2020]

With the premiums people are asking for six 300s (especially post 78 ones), the Lances are actually a better deal imo. The gear cost is overstated. I own the same system in the Arrow. It's pretty painless to maintain, and the failure mode is down. Fixed Togas close the gap on them, especially if light and devoid of extra antennas and the like on the outside. But the acquisition premium over the Lance can be steep.

 

[ircphoenix]

Oh it's softening, but these dynamics are beholden to the quarterly reporting our overlords live and die by. Shedding toys is not a leading indicator for financed millionaires, but lagging ones. As such, you're not gonna see an inventory dump in anticipation of the shave these folks are gonna take in their financial lives, but one done as a result of it. The country won't panic until after the quarterly reports come out. Employers react, and with it then do incomes and jobs. Two in a row sour quarterlies and it's open floodgates. I predict Q3 and 4 to be those, but some have suggested 2 and 3 might be all she wrote. We'll see. If you have 6 months, you should be able to see for yourself without committing early.

That's why this is not visible now, but it will in the late summer, as people take their last trips and say goodbye to the toy. I would be very hesitant on purchasing a PA-32-300 or 32R at the current pricing. You're gonna take a beating immediately in a year's time. Not a problem if you think it's a forever airplane. But that's what the people unloading them thought too, then life happened. Life's funny that way, it always keeps "happening" despite people's perennial optimism bias. Some on here who have lost airplanes are not even cryptic about it, they fully admit the bottom fell out and they lost it. What's worse, they say they'd do it again just the same. You can't fix that financial pathology.

I would not get bullied by 'you better have checkbook ready' anecdotes. I'd exercise more patience. I know, you want the airplane now, I get that. But we've seen inventory dumps before (2012), these things happen in cycles my ownership neophyte friend. Good luck to ya.

Come Q3 if you're right, expect a PM from me for financial planning advice.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

[Unit74]

I've had a close call not putting the gear UP! Haha.

I was taking off from SDM, and climbing towards SAN. Somehow - I don't know how - I didn't hit the switch.

I looked at my speed, and WOW, I was going so slow. Just a moment of looking around, and I had it.

As far as forgetting to put it down, I flew with an instructor, and we tried a gear-up approach intentionally, just to see how different it was.

I always put the gear down, and check four or more times coming in. I've never had a close one yet, and I am hopeful I would recognize the handling changes if I put myself in that situation.

My landing protocol is always, every time, “gear before flaps.” I actually say this out loud to myself each time. Even if I am just doing touch and goes and never pulled up the gear. I say it. When I hit the switch, I say out loud, “ gear in transit. Gear unsafe”. I put my finger in the gear indicator and count out the greens as they light. Once I have three, I say it aloud, “ three greens. Gear is down.”

 

[Unit74]

With the premiums people are asking for six 300s (especially post 78 ones), the Lances are actually a better deal imo. The gear cost is overstated. I own the same system in the Arrow. It's pretty painless to maintain, and the failure mode is down. Fixed Togas close the gap on them, especially if light and devoid of extra antennas and the like on the outside. But the acquisition premium over the Lance can be steep.

That’s why I fly a Lance...... it’s about on par with getting a steep discount on a car for buying the ugly colored one on the lot. My plane in a Toga would be creeping up on $200 pretty quick. The premium isn’t worth the difference.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

Thanks, you ever had any close calls in forgetting to put your gear down?

Not yet. If I ever do, it'll likely be just going around the pattern. Coming in from a cross country, I don't know how I'd ever get it slowed down enough to land without the gear out. People manage to do it with Mooneys all the time, somehow... But the way I operate, even starting to pull power 20 miles out, my last power reduction prior to dropping the gear is 5 miles out and I'm still going 155 KIAS. My gear extension speed is 140 KIAS. So I'm impatiently waiting for it, because it'll never slow down enough to land with the gear up. Sometimes I even have to pop the speed brakes to slow it down early enough to get the gear out so I can slow down the rest of the way. (Vle=140, Vfe=110, Vref = 80)

Now, a draggier airframe like the Lance will certainly be easier to accidentally gear up. But, I think the trick is to realize that yes, you are capable of landing gear up. I know I am - I can't tell you how many times I've landed fixed-gear planes with the prop and/or mixture not fully forward. But because of that, I know that I can always land gear up, so I am always a bit scared to touch down, which keeps me religiously checking for green on short final even if I've already put the gear down and "know" it.

 

[arkvet]

My fixed gear Toga is 145 knots LOP But it also has 2200 hours TBO which may cost me a couple knots? Retract Togas tend to fly around 160 TAS.

Like stated above I think the insurance and maintenance expense are kinda overblown. However, I do appreciate my discount however small it may be. For me personally the the speed reduction is worth the trade for the higher useful. I wouldn’t trade my 1400 useful for 1200 useful and 15 more knots. That 15 knots is pretty negligible for my typical trip of 200-500 miles. However, I have 6 seats in my plane and damn it if I want to put 4 adults and a couple kids and head to the beach 1200 lbs just ain’t gonna be as easy to plan for.

I’ll keep my 1400 useful but that’s what fits my personal needs.

For a retract the lance does have useful loads that competed or often exceeds my 1400. However, with the Hershey wing I don’t think the NA version really beats my fixed gear Toga in the speed dept.

Lots of variables. These PA32’s are all good birds, each with their own strengths / weaknesses.

When I wrote the check for my Toga I was NOT looking to buy another plane. Deal was good. I pounced. If you’re not ready to pounce then don’t bother looking too hard. Good PA32’s sell very well.