This accident sparked my curiosity because it wasn't big news like some accidents. I missed this thread until now.
Winds at SGJ were reported 140@10 during taxi out and 140@12 before takeoff. Temp about 25C. He requested RWY 24. It looks like the pilot normally used RWY 13 or RWY 31. I only can see a few landings on RWY 24, and no takeoffs on RWY 24 looking back as far as last summer. So, it was not routine to use that runway. He taxied out of the hangars near taxiways D4 and D southwest side of airport. RWY 13 was active.
RWY 24 is 2701'. There is a short perimeter fence and a light pole after takeoff before the highway, and according to the AFD numerous trees 742' from DER left and right of centerline, up to 100 feet AGL (trees look shorter straight down the centerline).
I haven't flown the Malibu Mirage but looked up a few performance numbers. I only saw data for Flaps 0 or Flaps 20, but not 10. Operators of this type can speak to the real world view of this takeoff.
For FLAPS 0 and 4000 lb TOW (fuel tanks about 1/2 full) the performance graphs show ground roll of 1675' or 1825' (roughly) using the tailwind of 3KT (per reported wind) or tailwind of 5KT (as an example). If FLAPS 0 and Max TOW ground roll is shown as 1875' to 2025', depending on tailwind component noted above.
For FLAPS 0 and 4000 lb TOW the graphs show takeoff distance over 50' obstacle of 2900' to 3025' (roughly) depending on tailwinds as noted above. If FLAPS 0 and Max TOW it's 3200' to 3300',depending on tailwind component.
For FLAPS 20, no matter the weight, the graphs show ground roll of 1325' to 1425' depending on tailwind (3KT or 5KT) and T/O over 50' obstacle of 2500' to 2625.
I ask myself, did he think about the crosswind component more than the tailwind component? Did he realize the significant impact of the tailwind for the takeoff and actually use the charts? Were flaps 0, 10 or 20 used? Was it a rolling or static start to the takeoff?
The pilot and passenger survived, their dog eventually died. I also saw a story about them loosing their son in a car accident a little over 10 years ago.