Safety stats, newer vs. older GA airplanes

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msa62001

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msa62001
Anyone familiar with data on the safety of newer versus older GA airplanes, controlling for other factors (wx, pilot experience, maintenance, etc.). Are newer planes meaningfully safer, are they no safer, or is it too complicated to unpack, given all the factors? thx
 
It's too complicated to unpack given all the factors.

The truth of the matter is that old airplanes, in theory, are maintained to remain within their original airworthiness certificate therefore making them just as safe as the day they were built. One benefit is that the older types have a lot of hours and the things that could go wrong have often been already discovered and fixed with airworthiness directives.
 
The basic problem with aircraft accident data is that there's no good measure of exposure ... that is, hours flown. Without that, you can't get a good number on "accidents per 100,000 hours flown," which is what you need to compare.

Folks try to get at it, using info owners report to their insurance companies etc, but it's still very mushy.

General aviation accident stats can be used in a very global and very general sense. The tighter you try to focus, the less valid the numbers become.
 
Got my certificate just about three months ago, but a recent two fatality crash at a nearby airport I fly into regularly has unnerved me, and my wife, who had never before expressed concern about the safety of flying (we have three teenage kids...they don't think so all the time, but they still need me), wondered aloud whether it's worth pursuing a hobby that can be so unforgiving.

I know that after many accidents it's possible to identify mistakes on the part of the pilot that led to the problem, but I have this nagging feeling that many of the guys who have perished also used to read about accidents, shaking their heads, and asking "how could he have done that". And they then went out and did it too.

So I haven't flown in a while, and while a part of me feels like I'm doing the "right thing" for my family, I'm missing it already. And I'm wondering what I can do to make flying as safe as possible. I recognize the benefits of training (I was never especially satisfied with my instruction, and there aren't many choices at the field where I live), and personal minimums (I know that flying on super-VFR weather only would help, as would not taking on big x-country trips, etc.). And I'm also trying to understand if there's another layer of safety that can be added in based on the plane I fly...both type and recency (a new Volvo is safer than a 20 year old dodge!).

I know that there's a lot of less than rational thinking that is going into this. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that my Dad flew GA safely for 40+ years. I "get" flying. I just have to figure out whether I can find a way to do it that allows me to feel the level of comfort I need for myself, and for my family.
 
msa62001 said:
Got my certificate just about three months ago, but a recent two fatality crash at a nearby airport I fly into regularly has unnerved me, and my wife, who had never before expressed concern about the safety of flying (we have three teenage kids...they don't think so all the time, but they still need me), wondered aloud whether it's worth pursuing a hobby that can be so unforgiving.

I know that after many accidents it's possible to identify mistakes on the part of the pilot that led to the problem, but I have this nagging feeling that many of the guys who have perished also used to read about accidents, shaking their heads, and asking "how could he have done that". And they then went out and did it too.

So I haven't flown in a while, and while a part of me feels like I'm doing the "right thing" for my family, I'm missing it already. And I'm wondering what I can do to make flying as safe as possible. I recognize the benefits of training (I was never especially satisfied with my instruction, and there aren't many choices at the field where I live), and personal minimums (I know that flying on super-VFR weather only would help, as would not taking on big x-country trips, etc.). And I'm also trying to understand if there's another layer of safety that can be added in based on the plane I fly...both type and recency (a new Volvo is safer than a 20 year old dodge!).

I know that there's a lot of less than rational thinking that is going into this. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that my Dad flew GA safely for 40+ years. I "get" flying. I just have to figure out whether I can find a way to do it that allows me to feel the level of comfort I need for myself, and for my family.
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Life is too short to worry about the unlikely. Something else can get you just as easily and you'll go out having not done what you loved.
 
The nice part about flying is that if you die, chances are you did something stupid. Driving to the airport, you can get taken out by some idiot in oncoming traffic. Same with motorcycles.

Personally, my feeling is that a well-maintained older aircraft is safer than a new aircraft. As Jesse pointed out, most of the problems with the design (which they're all going to have) have been uncovered after 40 or more years. Additionally, I like the designs of the aircraft better from a structural standpoint. The reality is that what is most likely to kill you in a plane is you making a bad decision, and catastrohpic failures beyond your control are fairly uncommon. That should be rather comforting, because in life there are few endeavors for which you have that much control.
 
dmccormack said:
I was happily surprised by the percent of fatalities in NTSB reported accidents in Aeroncas.
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Thats because Aeronicas don't do ANYTHING fast :D even fall out of the sky.

jesse said:
Life is too short to worry about the unlikely. Something else can get you just as easily and you'll go out having not done what you loved.
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Jesse is correct but your concern is understandable as is your wifes so you just have to decide what risk is acceptable. You said you are missing it I think your gut is telling you something but only you can decide what. What I find helpful is that I try to learn from accidents. Pilots love to disect air crashes not because we are morbid but because most of us have an intense desire to learn from them. Make that your mission and I bet you are back in the air soon.
 
There has been a recent study comparing 'technically advanced aircraft' (TAA) with glass-cockpit with the legacy fleet. The accident rate per 100k hours was very similar, the only significant difference was that the TAA pilots run out of fuel significantly less often.

Given the high share of 'pilot did dumb s^*#' accidents in GA and the low number of 'wings fell off due to fatigue' accidents, the age of the plane has little impact on the overall accident risk.
 
Airbags?

Wings don't fall off frequently, nor do engines fail frequently. But the latter does happen. More in engines with more hours? Same?
 
msa62001 said:
Airbags?
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Cessna has implemented them in some of their aircraft. The stats I've heard about say that a shoulder belt is the primary thing to help you survive a crash.

Wings don't fall off frequently, nor do engines fail frequently. But the latter does happen. More in engines with more hours? Same?
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Lots of variables, but there is a high infant mortality rate, and it tapers off after that. Once it has a few hundred hours on it, they tend to be pretty reliable.
 
I believe you can retrofit airbags (at least for a lot of airplanes), if you want them. They are built into the shoulder harness. Pretty cool. I think a lot of problems are created by owners not maintaining their airplanes adequately. It is expensive to keep them up. Also, experimental airplanes depend a lot on the builder and maintainer, and could have more problems. Stick with a certificated airplane, well maintained. Don't fly in bad weather, buzz houses, etc. Keep your eyes peeled for other aircraft. When you go somewhere, always, always be ready, willing and able to stay a couple more days when your gut is telling you to (this is real important). As one of the guys said above, a lot depends on you and your attitude. Flying can be safe.
 
I believe insurance companies offer discounts for aircraft having ballistic parachutes, airbags, and thermal imaging systems, among other optional safety features. You're more likely to find these available only on newer model aircraft.
 
AdamZ said:
Thats because Aeronicas don't do ANYTHING fast :D even fall out of the sky.
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Well, you know... that's very true!!

I received TW training from a Lear charter guy who teaches in Champs and Chiefs for a local club. He said he'd rather lose an engine in a lightweight taildragger -- he can put it anywhere -- even into the tops of trees -- whereas a heavy single needs a bit more room to get stopped.

F = M*A and all that... :thumbsup:
 
I feel ya bro. I re-evaluated my insurance policies but I still fly. Acknowledgment of the risk is step number 1 in the process of....wait for it....wait for it....Risk Management
 
Tough to say.


I would say that older planes are "over designed" since computational fluid dynamic capability, and other modeling ability as come a long way since then.

Engineers now are alot more confident in the predicted loads. So, a factor of safety may be a lot different back then compared to now, but today, we might have better power to weight ratios and better material.... Don't really know where I'm going with this, but something to consider....
 
somorris said:
I believe you can retrofit airbags (at least for a lot of airplanes), if you want them. They are built into the shoulder harness. Pretty cool.
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Yes you can. I had airbag belts installed in my Diamond DA40. Expensive but I feel it was worth it.
 
jesse said:
It's too complicated to unpack given all the factors.

The truth of the matter is that old airplanes, in theory, are maintained to remain within their original airworthiness certificate therefore making them just as safe as the day they were built. One benefit is that the older types have a lot of hours and the things that could go wrong have often been already discovered and fixed with airworthiness directives.
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I think that about sums it up.

In aviation, as opposed to automobiles, solid airframes live on!
 
Gary F said:
Yes you can. I had airbag belts installed in my Diamond DA40. Expensive but I feel it was worth it.
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That's interesting, and something I didn't know was available.

Curious: What stats or testing exist to show benefits of airbags in aircraft, especially ones that are retrofitted? I don't know much about airbag development.
 
Just a thought: One of the things you should do, IMHO, to be as safe as possible, is to keep your skills proficient. When you said that you "haven't flown in a while", then you are getting further out of you're personal level of skill proficiency and safety envelope.

Grab a good CFI, have a pre-flight chat about your concerns, then go on up with him/her and fly for a while. Talk openly about your concerns with other trusted pilots, and a really great experience is to get to know a local A&P and learn about how the mechanics of your plane work. All of these will add to your comfort level and proficiency.
 
Ted DuPuis said:
That's interesting, and something I didn't know was available.

Curious: What stats or testing exist to show benefits of airbags in aircraft, especially ones that are retrofitted? I don't know much about airbag development.
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There is a limited amount of preliminary data but it appears reasonably favorable.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbdOSHgJ3LE&feature=related

http://www.aopa.org/aircraft/articles/2011/110113ntsb_addresses_airbags_in_ga.html

A study of 88 accidents between 2006 and 2009 involving airbag-equipped GA aircraft “found no instances where the airbag caused harm in properly restrained occupants,” the NTSB said. Rather, the study found that the airbag likely mitigated injuries for two occupants within a group of 10 accidents that involved crash forces strong enough to cause injury or deploy the airbag. It also noted that no airbags failed to deploy, deployed unexpectedly, or interfered with rescue attempts.

http://www.ntsb.gov/events/2011/ga_airbag_study/synopsis.html

http://www.amsafe.com/products/detail.php?id=68&type=categories
 
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DutchessFlier said:
Just a thought: One of the things you should do, IMHO, to be as safe as possible, is to keep your skills proficient. When you said that you "haven't flown in a while", then you are getting further out of you're personal level of skill proficiency and safety envelope.
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+1000. The best safety feature any vehicle (or piece of equipment) has is a good operator.
 
Gary F said:
There is a limited amount of preliminary data but it appears reasonably favorable.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbdOSHgJ3LE&feature=related

http://www.aopa.org/aircraft/articles/2011/110113ntsb_addresses_airbags_in_ga.html

A study of 88 accidents between 2006 and 2009 involving airbag-equipped GA aircraft “found no instances where the airbag caused harm in properly restrained occupants,” the NTSB said. Rather, the study found that the airbag likely mitigated injuries for two occupants within a group of 10 accidents that involved crash forces strong enough to cause injury or deploy the airbag. It also noted that no airbags failed to deploy, deployed unexpectedly, or interfered with rescue attempts.

http://www.ntsb.gov/events/2011/ga_airbag_study/synopsis.html
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Very interesting, Gary, thanks. I'll be interested to see how the stats continue.
 
Take away all the stupid pilot tricks and airplanes are pretty safe. We all ***** and moan about all the regulations, but the aircraft are far more dependable than their ground-based counterparts.
 
jesse said:
Life is too short to worry about the unlikely. Something else can get you just as easily and you'll go out having not done what you loved.
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My thoughts exactly. I had (and to some extent still have) the same concerns as you. I had a motorcycle that gave me the same concerns. I agreed to sell it in order to get permission from my wife to fly. :cryin:

I don't know how or when I'm going to go, but since I have no control over it, I would rather pursue my dreams and enjoy the time I have doing things I love to do. Now that I know I'm going to live this long, I wish I had done it earlier :wink2:
 
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