Predicting weather

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UngaWunga

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UngaWunga
Looks like we may not be flying to DC this week after all. The day we're planning on coming back has a 75% chance of precipitation, and it may be snow. I'd like to stay away from freezing stuff in the sky. Stinks, because the winds are predicted to be in our favor on both days. (wed and sat).

Which brings up the question: is there any way to predict cloud height? Can you use that rule with the dew point and temp to accurately (reasonably so) the bottom of the clouds?
 
I like using USAirnet for overview base estimates, then using Skew-T's for top estimates. I've found them to be pretty decently accurate, but keep in mind it's the snapshot of the coordinates and not as wide as an FA. The FA also gives a decent estimate, but it's the total tops, not layers or lower tops.

I also use the Icing estimation charts to plan more for icing. I find them to be pretty darn accurate. I've never played with the higher probabilities, but the lower probability charges seemed decent. SLD is no-fly zone for sure though.
 
Obviously your call but if I were you I wouldn't cancel yet! Especially if you have any leeway in your schedule (for example come back Fri afternoon or Sun am). Looks like Wed will be great, Sat like you say is a little iffy but I wouldn't rule out being able to fly. The forecasts that far out aren't that reliable.
 
Plus no one should have to make that drive all the way down I-95 on the worst travel day of the year!
 
Where are you flying to DC from? Could you wait to return on Sunday or leave Friday if the weather did not cooperate? I think even if the forecast looked good for Sat when you look on Wed, it could easily change by the time Sat comes around.
 
NH. We have commercial tickets as a backup, I just hate flying with the airlines these days. Wife doesn't want to come back sunday. Which sucks, because that would be much easier. I'll make the call tomorrow.

I get my long range forecasts here. Suggestions on other sites to look at?
 
neilw2 said:
Obviously your call but if I were you I wouldn't cancel yet! Especially if you have any leeway in your schedule (for example come back Fri afternoon or Sun am). Looks like Wed will be great, Sat like you say is a little iffy but I wouldn't rule out being able to fly. The forecasts that far out aren't that reliable.
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^^THIS^^

5-6 days out is wayyyy too early to scrap a flight.

That being said, you gotta have a bit of flexability with your plans when it comes to GA, especially when VFR only in the colder months.

If I were in your shoes, I'd just go since its solid VFR on the way down, and worry about the return weather later.

Looking at the longer range GFS, its looks like Sat afternoon into Sun you should be back to comfortable VFR.

Are you night current? If so, Sat night might be your best bet. If not, then first thing sunday morning should work.
 
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That temp/dew point thing only works for unstable air. Basically, it says if you take a parcel of air from the ground and lift it up to altitude, you'll get saturation at a predicted altitude. If you don't actually lift it and it's a different parcel, all bets are off. There could very easily be a different humidity at that altitude, leading to higher or lower bases, or none at all.
 
Looks like the weather will start to move into DC on friday evening. Saturday down there is looking marginal through Monday, while the rest of the NE will clear up saturday/sunday. Hmm....

Will make the call tonight if we fly spamcan or commercial. Really don't want to get groped by the TSA unless I really need to, but don't want to get stuck for a few days in DC....
 
I would fly yourself [myself] based on what I am seeing. Looks like good weather to me.

edit. I don't want to come across like I am trying to persuade you to fly the trip. Make sure its your decision. :wink2:
 
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JasonM said:
I would fly yourself [myself] based on what I am seeing. Looks like good weather to me.

edit. I don't want to come across like I am trying to persuade you to fly the trip. Make sure its your decision. :wink2:
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I would do that same, even if I was VFR only.

Late Sat night/early sunday morning look like good VFR as well, with a high moving in from the west.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=5&fcolor=wbg

UngaWunga said:
Looks like the weather will start to move into DC on friday evening. Saturday down there is looking marginal through Monday, while the rest of the NE will clear up saturday/sunday. Hmm....

Will make the call tonight if we fly spamcan or commercial. Really don't want to get groped by the TSA unless I really need to, but don't want to get stuck for a few days in DC....
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While not nearly as appealing as the Bahamas, there are a lot worse places to be stuck than DC! Like I said, from what I am seeing at this point, you should be good to return within a 12-24 hour window.

Just fly down yourself, have fun, and don't look back!
 
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JasonM said:
I would fly yourself [myself] based on what I am seeing. Looks like good weather to me.

edit. I don't want to come across like I am trying to persuade you to fly the trip. Make sure its your decision. :wink2:
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Oh, I understand. I posted because I wanted to see what info y'all would look at and how you would interpret it. Good thread for me. The forecast does seem to be improving, and I think we're going to go. Thanks
 
Bump. Did you fly yourself or ride the airlines?
 
Airline. Took a last look at the weather around midnight, and saw the chance of low clouds over the NE would be high today. Friday would've been fine, but today would have had us stuck somewhere.
 
UngaWunga said:
Airline. Took a last look at the weather around midnight, and saw the chance of low clouds over the NE would be high today. Friday would've been fine, but today would have had us stuck somewhere.
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Im glad. I was thinking of you this morning on my way to work looking at the thick low OVC layer!
 
UngaWunga said:
Airline. Took a last look at the weather around midnight, and saw the chance of low clouds over the NE would be high today. Friday would've been fine, but today would have had us stuck somewhere.
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My condolences:(

What a bummer as you would have had solid VFR tomorrow (sunday). Finish up that IR asap:D
 
In addition to the usual aviationweather.gov sources, I like the GFS graphics on weather.unisys.com for 7-10 day planning, then I downshift to www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for days 3-7, then mav mos/gridded mos, then rucsoundings and HRRR as you get in close/day of.
 
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