Predicting ceilings on Thursday

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mikegreen

Pre-takeoff checklist
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mike g.
So I need to head to Parkersburg, WV for work... I was planning on driving, but I just drove from SW Wisconsin to Dayton last night.. and have no desire to spend anymore time in my car.

VFR I73 (dayton) to PKB is the route... leaving this afternoon (good wx)..
I am concerned about the return on Thursday evening...
In PKB looks like 30%/mostly cloudy - http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...burg&state=WV&site=RLX&lat=39.264&lon=-81.543

So being somewhat new to this (100hrs?), what is the best resource to use to expect ceilings and cloud cover? I checked the prog charts/etc, and can see a cold front will pass Wednesday and be far south on Thursday.. but what else?

I could delay the return until Friday morning.. but weather.com says 12mph NW wind, which is a heafty crosswind for me at I73.

thanks,

-Mike (wx noob!)
 
mikegreen said:
So I need to head to Parkersburg, WV for work... I was planning on driving, but I just drove from SW Wisconsin to Dayton last night.. and have no desire to spend anymore time in my car.

VFR I73 (dayton) to PKB is the route... leaving this afternoon (good wx)..
I am concerned about the return on Thursday evening...
In PKB looks like 30%/mostly cloudy - http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...burg&state=WV&site=RLX&lat=39.264&lon=-81.543

So being somewhat new to this (100hrs?), what is the best resource to use to expect ceilings and cloud cover? I checked the prog charts/etc, and can see a cold front will pass Wednesday and be far south on Thursday.. but what else?

I could delay the return until Friday morning.. but weather.com says 12mph NW wind, which is a heafty crosswind for me at I73.

thanks,

-Mike (wx noob!)
Click to expand...
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MAV/index.html Has a pretty good ceiling prediction tool

But honestly, if you HAVE to be there on time, leave early by air or plan on driving.
 
Whoa - thats cool.

I'll have to dig deeper into what it does and how later....

I have to be there today... which isnt a problem looking out the window... the return is just coming home.. so if I need to delay until Friday morning I'm ok with that, too. I would prefer to fly to get some more XC hours... as the drive is only 45 mins longer when you factor in taxi/parking/taxi to hotel/etc...

Thanks,

-Mike
 
AOPA wx ...but that forecast is pretty far out there at 60 and 72 hours.

ussfcpc60.gif

ussfcpc72.gif
 
I wouldn't put too much trust in ANY forecast 72 hours in the future. 48 hours is when I start to take forecasts of front positions and pressure system strengths seriously. Near and around the Great Lakes, I don't take ceiling and cloud height forecasts seriously until 24 hours out or even the day of, especially if high pressure is expected to dominate. There are just too many variables and the big puddles all too often give us MVFR cigs even when the altimeter setting is 30.20 and up. Follow the TAFs for any city in the area for 24 hours and you'll see. The forecast cloud heights often change significantly from run cycle to run cycle. If you follow the forecast discussions, you can sometimes spot the weasel words when they suspect things will go south but let the next shift deal with adjusting the TAFs or general forecasts.

So yes, what Scott said. Or as they say, "Time to spare? Go by air".
 
If the wx looks good in the morning, do the flight. If it craps out during the day, rent a car and return for the aircraft another day.
 
Mike keep in mind that regardless of the forcast WV is a very mountainous state. This time of year there is a LOT of fog in the valleys in the morning that may not mix out till after 10AM.

As you know the ceiling height when reported is reported AGL from the reporting station so if the reporting station is at any given airport at 500' MSL and the ceilings are reported as 3000 ovc then the ceiling is at 3500' MSL. This is important as while the field may be VFR there could very well be moutain obscuration in the surrouding mountains. Fly Safe and have fun.
 
AdamZ said:
Mike keep in mind that regardless of the forcast WV is a very mountainous state.
Click to expand...

Actually, Pberg is well west of the real terrain, though it does get hilly and the valleys will burn off later. If you have any trouble you can always land across the river at Gallia/Meigs in Gallipolis.
 
Well, I'm in downtown Parkersburg now... I took off around 3:40 from Dayton, ran into some rain just south of some thunderstorms around Columbus, and landed at PKB around 4:45. Much nicer than the 3hr drive!

I flew over a ton of construction (damn you, recovery act!) with stopped traffic... and also many orange/yellow/red trees changing to their fall dress.

Flying into PKB for the first time was interesting - ATIS said 230@4knts... yet the door got slammed shut when I parked and looked about 10kts. No wonder landing was a little more gusty than expected.

I'm planning to leave Thursday night around 6pm... but might need to stay for work until Friday afternoon, which is forecast to be even better weather.. I'll post back on what was forecast and what happened.

Thanks for the links and info!

-Mike
 
Another tool I use is USAirNet - They have a graphical depiction of what will be going on for the next 72 hours, and it's generally surprisingly accurate. I've never found anything that goes out farther than 72 hours that has any level of reliability whatsoever. Write down today's "10-day forecast" and see how far off it ends up being...

The other thing is, this is not just a weather issue. If you can delay your return until Friday, that gives you options. If you can rent a car and drive home if necessary and come back for the plane on a better weather day, that'll give you even more. The more flexible you can be with your plans, the better you'll be able to use your plane. If this is an "I absolutely have to get from point A to point B on this day at this time" then forget it. Not even the airlines can do that.
 
PKB is a nice big airport built close to the river. It tends to get foggy more often than many other WV airports but also clears rapidly. A co-worker lives in Parkersburg and has flown ANG Helos for 32 years and has his share of Low IFR approaches into PKB.

I'll second what everyone else has counseled on this board. Don't use GA as a "I gotta get there" form of transportation unless you're ok with the risks.
 
Mike --

Scott D is very good at offering advice on this forum without pushing his services.

Allow me to do so for him.

His workshops, online training, and cd's are extremely valuable. If you have even the slightest interest in learning more about weather (and I sure hope you do) I highly recommend checking out his services. Very very worthwhile. He is a fellow pilot, teaching pilots how to use available forecast resources to interpret weather and make informed flight decisions.

Two thumbs up from this reviewer.
 
flyersfan31 said:
Mike --

Scott D is very good at offering advice on this forum without pushing his services.

Allow me to do so for him.

His workshops, online training, and cd's are extremely valuable. If you have even the slightest interest in learning more about weather (and I sure hope you do) I highly recommend checking out his services. Very very worthwhile. He is a fellow pilot, teaching pilots how to use available forecast resources to interpret weather and make informed flight decisions.

Two thumbs up from this reviewer.
Click to expand...
Ditto!!!
 
I played this game yesterday for a trip fron PHN to BKL. 90 NM direct 230 SM by Car.

11th 12:00 LT watched the fog thicken from 08:00 to 10:00 and decided if it looks the same for tomorrow I'll drive.

11th 20:00 LT flight planner latest weather calls for Fog and 200' ceiling at departure airport and 1000' ceiling at destination. Sarnia, Selfridge and Cleveland all call ofr 2000' ceilings.

11th 21:00 - 22:00 Front moves through with thunder, rain and hail. Set the alarm clock for the drive.

12th 06:00 severe clear at home and PHN AWOS, 1000' BKL ASOS flight planner now says 2000' ceilings expected at departure and destination. Thought for a second I can hang around for an hour or so and do the flight.

But, if the fog does roll in I'm stuck here and I've lost the ground option so away I go.

12th 06:30 start drive to Cleveland, cloudy to the East over Canada and Lake St Clair, Clear where I am until Toledo.

12th 08:20 call PHN FBO to verify severe clear, get an actual view of the weather and tell him to leave the plane in the hanger. Temp and dewpoint were equal with only a slight wind ~3knots, but the clouds held to the East and just a little scattered ground fog developed.

12th 10:00 arrive in Cleveland 5 blocks S of BKL. Cloud cover Broken 1700 but clear inland. I could have made the flight without any problem.

Driving was still the right decision because. Predicited weather 12 hr before flight, at decision time was not doable IFR for me. I will not depart in weather at minimums and that was the prediction and what we had the day before with the same basic weather setup.

I am also not fond of flying over the Lake when it is cloud covered with a 1000' to 2000' base. That does not leave a lot of options once you're below the clouds.
 
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