Planned flight this weekend

steingar said:
Good for you. No one ever crashed the airplane they didn't fly. You'll do it another day, and probably enough times after that you'll want to drive because the flight got boring.
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Looking at the OP's planned flight, I think driving is a LOT likelier to get boring than flying. I'd expect to take about 3 hours going around the lake by car, including a rather unpleasant (to the nose) stretch of road over Junkyard Hill on I-94,as compared with less than an hour by air (in a 172 class plane) and awesome views of Lake St. Clair, the Motor City, and Selfridge. Unless there is a concern about weather, I'd much rather fly that trip than drive.

But yep, if weather is any concern at all, better to be down here wishing you were up there than the reverse. Personally, I would have made the go-no go decision in the morning. 24 hours out, the forecast is still pretty iffy.
 
This is the morning. I am leaving tonight =)

I'm actually from the area I'll be visiting. Going around the lake is really annoying! Takes about 3.5h-ish.
 
ChrisK said:
This is the morning. I am leaving tonight =)

I'm actually from the area I'll be visiting. Going around the lake is really annoying! Takes about 3.5h-ish.
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Gotcha! I assumed Saturday from the wording of your last post. Have a safe trip.
 
What is it in the weather forecast that has caused your 'no go' decision?
 
Henning said:
What is it in the weather forecast that has caused your 'no go' decision?
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Storms Sunday Monday and Tuesday and having to have my son back for school on Tuesday. The forecast calls for Monday morning to have a window where I can get him back but without an instrument rating and not knowing what the ceilings would be, I didn't want to fly with that time pressure. Plus with the possibility of storms on either side of that window I thought the odds were too great that the window would close. Finally there is turbulence today, but given that it is already dissipating, that would not have stopped me.

I still think I should do it as a day trip once anyway.
 
ChrisK said:
Storms Sunday Monday and Tuesday and having to have my son back for school on Tuesday. The forecast calls for Monday morning to have a window where I can get him back but without an instrument rating and not knowing what the ceilings would be, I didn't want to fly with that time pressure. Plus with the possibility of storms on either side of that window I thought the odds were too great that the window would close. Finally there is turbulence today, but given that it is already dissipating, that would not have stopped me.

I still think I should do it as a day trip once anyway.
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Isolated scattered storms with a scattered broken 1/2-3/4 coverage base and several miles between, solid hard line or dense and low? I have never not been able to fly that region safely VFR in the summer given an hour or two leeway to land short and wait out a big cell. The chart shows VFR. Did the briefer you called say VFR flight not recommended along your route of flight."?
 
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Chris,

I am sure I am not the only pilot that checked wx for this morning and Monday morning. Right guys?? You knew that when you posted. There are many of us on here watching out for you and your son's safety/decision making. Low timers like me 225 and ones with thousands of hours. I think you made the right decision for this trip. When dealing with TS the first time you will want a CFI or experienced TS flyer in the right seat, not your son. You also need to have ads-b or xm wx on-board and learn how to fly safely with it. You will then learn when and where it is safe to fly around TS. Many of us that are now comfortable in higher xw, turbulence and near TS would have blasted early this AM. We have to remember back what it was like for those first few xc stretching our wings. Keep flying safe and get up on those marginal wx days with a good CFI or experienced wx pilot. That is what I did for me, my wife and our two kids(12 & 9).
 
Clark1961 said:
You think water is bad, what about dihydrogen monoxide? It's the silent killer!
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www.dhmo.org for more details. :D

It's never a wrong decision to drive instead of fly. Everytime I've made the wrong decision on a fly/drive question it has been because I decided to drive when the weather actually supported fly. Much better than deciding to fly when I should have driven. Other opportunities will present themselves. Hope you have a great weekend.
 
How do you learn to fly in that part of the world and not have some exposure to weather with a CFI by the time you get a PP?
 
Here's the deal, if you don't find a use for flying that has a 'value added' component as well as utility, it gets expensive fast. If its mellow puffy cloudy with 4500' bases scattered and some localized build ups less than 20%, and good vis, that's a lot of your good flying days. Clouds alone are not a threat. I'm just asking him what he found in in his briefing that made him decidento cancel, and see if they told him VFR not recommended. It's winter clouds you really need to avoid, they have ice. Summer clouds you can see to travel around and if you want a smooth ride, just above the first puffy layer.
 
The weather can change, and he has to be back by Tuesday. He made the right decision. It is easy to go VFR when you have an IR in your back pocket that you can use to get out of trouble. I would have done the exact same thing in his position. Even more so when you're traveling with your kids. I haven't looked at the weather forecast there myself, but that is irrelevant. Something about it gave HIM pause, and that is enough.
 
There's a TFR Sunday not far from the OP's planned route. That would have added one more layer of angst, for what to do if a course deviation is required.

The TFR can be seen (for now, anyway) in the map link in the first post on this thread.
 
The guy has been trained and examined as a competent VFR pilot. TFRs are a part of the VFR structure, why would they be a source of angst? Are they for you?:confused: Will not flying alleviate that angst or are you saying he should get more dual?

If he isn't competent to go up working in and around in VFR weather now, when will he be? How will he learn it if he doesn't do it? How much more dual past your checkride does it require to learn about flying around in weather you are rated for before you can start learning on your own?

I never said his decission was wrong, it's immaterial anyway. I'm just trying to ascertain his decission making process because if he is going to stay in aviation it will have to be worthwhile, and he just exhibited the first step to being out of aviation within a year. Not saying that means he will, just that a lot of people get out of flying very shortly after getting their license because they don't get enough utility out of it.
 
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The way I read it, he chose no-go to not put himself in a position where he might have to find another way back on Monday. Whether it was the logistics of getting a rental (could be a little time consuming where he'll be, they don't have rentals at 76G or within at least 6 miles) and leaving the plane and coming back for it later; or whether it was more to avoid the temptations of get-there-itis, it's a valid decision as far as I'm concerned. It's the same reason I've only done one multi-overnight trip by air in over 900 hours.
 
azure said:
The way I read it, he chose no-go to not put himself in a position where he might have to find another way back on Monday. Whether it was the logistics of getting a rental (could be a little time consuming where he'll be, they don't have rentals at 76G or within at least 6 miles) and leaving the plane and coming back for it later; or whether it was more to avoid the temptations of get-there-itis, it's a valid decision as far as I'm concerned. It's the same reason I've only done one multi-overnight trip by air in over 900 hours.
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So? Keep an eye on the weather as the weekend progresses and leave early if one has to. This will happen EVERY flight he plans, every one. You can't not take a multi day trip because of what the weather might do 3 days from now because there is no prediction that is accurate outside 36-42 hours with any margin of reliability. During the summer the systems are such that you can normally work with them if you allow 6 hours leeway. Occasionally I'll leave a day early as the forecasts firm up.

As for your last sentence, that is what I'm concerned is in the process of happening to this guy. That means limited destination fun time which limits family trips to mostly sitting in the plane for a day. Fun for pilots and the kid who likes to fly. It's being able to enjoy the destination that gets the family into it. When you travel with the whole family in a PA-32 (or 34 if he wants a plane to safely haul the family on trips with a schedule year round) you can actually beat airline style travel prices door to door within CONUS. Without multi day trips families aren't usually enthusiastic.
 
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Henning said:
So? Keep an eye on the weather as the weekend progresses and leave early if one has to. This will happen EVERY flight he plans, every one. You can't not take a multi day trip because of what the weather might do 3 days from now because there is no prediction that is accurate outside 36-42 hours with any margin of reliability. During the summer the systems are such that you can normally work with them if you allow 6 hours leeway.
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Yes, you can. You can make the decision to drive whenever there's a reasonable chance that you might get caught by weather if you stick to schedule, and you don't want to have to (or can't, for whatever reason) leave early.

And although you're correct that you can normally work with summer systems, abnormal conditions aren't that uncommon. Even in August, you can be grounded for a couple days by low clouds.

Another consideration is that even if you're willing to leave early, you can be lulled into thinking that you don't have to because conditions will still be VFR. They might even be, technically, but you could find once you're in the air that you're not comfortable with them. Then you're back where you didn't want to be, facing the hassle of arranging a rental and having to come get the plane next weekend, or whenever.
 
Henning said:
As for your last sentence, that is what I'm concerned is in the process of happening to this guy. That means limited destination fun time which limits family trips to mostly sitting in the plane for a day. Fun for pilots and the kid who likes to fly. It's being able to enjoy the destination that gets the family into it. When you travel with the whole family in a PA-32 (or 34 if he wants a plane to safely haul the family on trips with a schedule year round) you can actually beat airline style travel prices door to door within CONUS. Without multi day trips families aren't usually enthusiastic.
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I don't have a family, so I never thought in terms of beating airline prices using GA. But I can't see it working unless you can dispatch reliably without having to change your plans based on uncertain weather forecasts every other trip. If they have to leave a day early on a regular basis because of forecast weather (that half the time, turns out in hindsight to be perfectly flyable), how enthusiastic about flying vacations do you think the family will be in a couple of years?

To make GA a serious means of travel around the lakes, you really need the IR. You can get away with VFR a lot of the time but you need a more flexible schedule (including being able to call in absent to work in the morning once in a while) and some people just don't have that luxury. There is NO WAY that I could get away with that -- it would mean a canceled class and a black mark against me come review time. I do NOT have tenure.

What happened to me won't happen to the OP if he starts IR training right away and actually gets the rating before those 100s of hours rack up.
 
azure said:
Yes, you can. You can make the decision to drive whenever there's a reasonable chance that you might get caught by weather if you stick to schedule, and you don't want to have to (or can't, for whatever reason) leave early.

And although you're correct that you can normally work with summer systems, abnormal conditions aren't that uncommon. Even in August, you can be grounded for a couple days by low clouds.

Another consideration is that even if you're willing to leave early, you can be lulled into thinking that you don't have to because conditions will still be VFR. They might even be, technically, but you could find once you're in the air that you're not comfortable with them. Then you're back where you didn't want to be, facing the hassle of arranging a rental and having to come get the plane next weekend, or whenever.
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If you cancel for what you can't know against the probability that you will make a 6 hour window from the forecast from 12 hrs before, you will never fly an overnight trip. I can't do that, I go, and I always make it VFR somehow... The only times I have really flown IFR was for other people. Over 2200 of 2500+ hours have been solo VFR. One of the few solo IFR flights I did to get home to Key West in February over taking the bitter cold front I was running away from at FL 210 in the soup when my gyros froze and failed. That caused me to get an immediate no gyro approach into Montgomery which got me nearly killed in ice.
In retrospect I should have continued into the night partial panel and broke into CAVU at the coast, I had the fuel to make Key West.

If the guy has hopes of family grooving on trips, Disney World in December and Atlantis Bahamas in February are this guys best hope considering where he lives. I'm not dumping on the guy being concerned and canceling a flight, not yet, I want to ascertain why first. There are legitimate concerns as you point out. To address those concerns and make it to Disney and the Bahamas he needs to get availability to a Seneca II. If he is canceling for the right reasons he needs to get in the right equipment right away or he will keep canceling because the reasons never go away. By the time he's done training for his IFR ticket in it, he can combine a ME & IR ride and be good on the insurance. You can find Seneca Iis for rent still and usually they have a 25hr dual with a minimum TT that they'll waive if he does 40 and his ME and IR ride in the plane. Thing is he needs the same capabilities to make what sounds like a quick flight home to see family. Again, if that is a primary mission in his aviation aspirations, for it to have utility will require a SenecaII as minimum available aircraft. The two things that combined to get the ball rolling was gasoline heaters and old mechanical gyros. Gasoline heaters are a pain, suck fuel, and must always be maintained. I left with an again INOP heater, that was a mistake given 40 below temps.

The thing that saved my life was excess available horsepower. The reason I had excess available horsepower was I had a turbo system that allowed me to select an over boost situation. The Seneca II on have a limited ability to do this as well.

Just trying to save the guy some time and money if he wants to have his family aviation hopes come true while addressing his legitimate concerns.
 
How did I get through 6 weeks of accelerated flight training without flying in the weather?? One, it was not part of the PTS. Two, the school set minimum vis/clg/winds and we stuck to them. I am sure due to their insurance and risk of being sued in today's world. No wonder we have so many wx related accidents.

I first studied the weather more online and in books. I have a good friend and CFI that went up after flight training to introduce me to flying in the wx in Ohio and then in Florida. I always have xm wx on-board and not afraid to call FSS enroute. Just remember wx can be very intimidating for a new pilot, especially when you hear mention of TS no matter what the coverage or % chance. I never flew rentals in or after training more than 1.5 hrs away and never overnight. It is difficult to get into drastic wx changes like that. Now with 76.9 hrs in my RV-10 in the last 9 months I have had to make many wx decisions. Two trips so far had to be extended. Two days on one and four days on the other. Both times were still risky, but manageable because of my training. I love my 160 KTAS/10.5 gph cruiser. It can be an advantage of getting around wx quickly or a disadvantage of getting into it quicker depending on where you point the nose. I can slow right down to 100 kts, let "Otto" fly to give me more time if needed. Now combine wx with tfr's, prohibited/restricted/class B, C & D airspaces, precious and nervous pax...a low timer like me had his hands full this summer. Everyone learns and becomes comfortable at various rates. Chris seems to have a good head on his shoulders and will know when it is time to try out the weather with his family.
 
People, it is up to you to demand the training that you feel is required beyond minimum standards. Don't accept restricted training. Vote with your pocket books and demand better. Demand the training you require to be comfortable with your understanding all the weather conditions you may encounter VFR.
 
I definitely agree with making sure you see all kinds of weather conditions during your training so you can learn with someone who knows what they are doing next to you. I had a great CFII and we actively went out in hard IMC conditions during my training. I even got to experience flying into ice (unintentional) during my long IFR XC. It was much better seeing what it is like to fly into ice, and how to deal with it, with an instructor next to me rather than by myself for the first time.
 
I finally (FINALLY) made this trip today. Delayed about 4 hours due to:

KMTC 171608Z 18005KT 1SM R19/4000FT BR SCT001 BKN200 04/04 A3059
KMTC 171558Z 18005KT 1/4SM R19/1000FT FG BKN001 BKN200 04/04 A3059 RMK SLP375
KMTC 171550Z 18004KT 1/4SM R19/0900FT FG BKN001 BKN200 03/03 A3059
KMTC 171455Z 00000KT 1/8SM R19/1200FT FG BKN001 00/M00 A3059 RMK SLP378 52012
[FONT=Monospace,Courier]KMTC 171444Z 00000KT 1/8SM R19/1400FT FZFG BKN001 M00/M01 A3059

Eventually, after getting tired of sitting around the airport, I called flight service to talk options. I decided to plan my flight from 15G -> SKY -> KDET (Detroit City Airport), make 76G an alternate, and ask Detroit if the visibility improved while I was enroute.

Aside from slightly more time over water than I wanted (due to heading more westerly towards KDET), it all worked out beautifully. Detroit approach couldn't get numbers from Port Huron so they called on the phone for me, and sure enough, the fog was gone. Direct 76G!

Even with some not great visibility due to mist and such over Lake Erie, I could (barely) make out land the whole way. I had to pay a little more attention to my instruments to make sure I was accurate, but it was fun and kept my mind alert.

I figured due to our late departure we would leave late as well. I'm night current and have made several successful night cross countries back to my home airport, so I wasn't too worried. I was across the water about 45m after sunset (cut it a little closer than I would have liked). It was a beautiful night. I could see that haze was just starting to creep in, but it seems that I made it back in plenty of time. Aside from the fact that it took some encouragement for my transponder to register with approach (/boggle) and that they lost my primary return halfway over Lake Erie (/gulp) it really wasn't that eventful.

The only real screw up with the whole thing was the fact that I went around twice at my home airport. It was crazy. Downwind, base, turn to final, can't see the airport. Our runway at 15G has some *cough* "nonstandard" lighting that is sometimes difficult to see and I was using the non-default runway, but still. I think I need to practice some more night landings. My speed on short final was WAY low. I nosed down slightly and put in some power and salvaged it into a reasonably good landing.

I tried to take some pictures of the haze coming in over Cleveland at night, but my phone failed me. On a cool note, my 8 year old (who was with me) LOVED the night view.

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Oh, and incidentally, a 152 is NOT a good plane for this mission! But I'm $240 poorer and 3.4 hours closer to IR.

EDIT - FOR THOSE AFRAID OF FLYING OVER CANADA, THIS WAS A COMPLETE NON-EVENT. I filed a flight plan and picked up flight following both ways. Going over Windsor (especially at 6500' over the D) means that it was no work to avoid the DTW bravo, and I was cleared through CLE bravo both directions. I was nowhere near any of the restricted airspace.
 
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Glad you and your son made it back safely!

I would never fly over 42-45F water at night. Also never over mountains at night. Daytime flights over Lake Michigan/Erie and the Appalachians were risky enough for me this summer. That is just me.

It sure has been beautiful down here, too bad I had to work and then cut firewood this weekend.
 
RV10flyer said:
Glad you and your son made it back safely!

I would never fly over 42-45F water at night. Also never over mountains at night. Daytime flights over Lake Michigan/Erie and the Appalachians were risky enough for me this summer. That is just me.

It sure has been beautiful down here, too bad I had to work and then cut firewood this weekend.
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It was somewhat mitigated by the island airports I was flying over all within gliding distance, but I agree that it was a bit too darn late. Next time I will leave 20m earlier. Never really at severe risk of putting it down in the water.
 
Many of those airports have no beacon and unknown lighting so finding one could be a challenge without synthetic vision. Were you able to spot any by turning the lights on?
 
RV10flyer said:
Many of those airports have no beacon and unknown lighting so finding one could be a challenge without synthetic vision. Were you able to spot any by turning the lights on?
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It wasn't dark until I was across the water, and I was on flight following with one radio. I don't argue that the crossing in the dark would be bad :)
 
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