Threefingeredjack
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- Mar 18, 2012
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Threefingeredjack
Are you talking about the risk of an engine failure or something, or are you talking about the consequences of it? Do you think the risk and the consdequences are the same? Your little girl walks one block to grandma's house in a small, quiet midwestern town. The risk of abduction is minimial. But the consequences are incalculable. So, you don't let her walk.
I can't see that the likelihood of an engine failure 1,000 miles out over the ocean are any greater than over Missouri, but the consequences are different.
I am talking about the total risk of long overwater flights. If you re-read my post you will see I specifically addressed the engine reliability issue. The totality of of risk computation includes possible incident modes and resultant effects. For instance an engine failure over land can have many results with varying risk attached. You can glide to a nearby airfield with minimal risk. You might find a flat unobstructed patch of ground with only slightly higher risk. You might be over deep heavily timbered canyons.
In the first two scenarios the possibilities of surviving are excellent. In the last it is not so certain, but if you survived the landing you would have a reasonable chance of surviving until help arrived.
Over water you have a fair chance of surviving the landing assuming the sea state is not too severe and you know how to ditch at sea correctly, (along the back side of a swell line). Once down, your chances of survival diminish rapidly. Egress from the aircraft, access to survival equipment and proper deployment, and training on water survival all factor into your chances of survival.