PC-12 midair breakup?

dell30rb said:
Sorry but do you mean that the parents want everyone to die together or something? need explanation.. wTF
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I believe that's what they're implying yes. To which I say, if one is that afraid to let your replacements loose in the jungle we call life, maybe one shouldn't have had them in the first place. Wanting to take the whole fam with with you is pretty selfish, no matter how well-intended the sentiment for their safekeeping is.
 
I prefer that if I ever shall meet my fate in an NTSB report, that my family is not aboard and the report read 1 fatal, 0 injured. My risk tolerance is lower when they are aboard.

* However, I believe that it is my destiny to die an old man with grand and great grands around. But I do own life insurance, just in case.
 
dell30rb said:
Sorry but do you mean that the parents want everyone to die together or something? need explanation.. wTF
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Correct, leave no orphans is the thinking, I'm not against it but question it, not my decision though.
 
Jaybird180 said:
Well you can choose not to particpate in the line of thought.
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Actually, I don't even have to choose as I have no children. I gave some thought to it but I couldn't come up with a 'best' way to think about it primarily because the precept is false, there is no guarantee and actually a statistical likelihood of an orphan onboard having survived the crash.
 
Jaybird180 said:
...some words missing in the last phrase???
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I don't think so, the point I was trying to get across is that even if you have the whole family in the plane for the crash, there is still a good chance of having an orphan survive the crash.
 
Although I'm aware of a few who survived, I'm sure your statistics aren't 'just made up' (???).
 
Jaybird180 said:
Although I'm aware of a few who survived, I'm sure your statistics aren't 'just made up' (???).
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No, all you have to do is look at aircraft accidents and survival rates. Unless you are crashing in such a fashion to purposely die the chances of a survivor are considerably more than zero. Add to that it's typically the kids in the back seats and unless ditching, the back seat has a greater rate of survivorship than the front.

That's why I question the efficacy of the logic.
 
Henning said:
No, all you have to do is look at aircraft accidents and survival rates. Unless you are crashing in such a fashion to purposely die the chances of a survivor are considerably more than zero. Add to that it's typically the kids in the back seats and unless ditching, the back seat has a greater rate of survivorship than the front.

That's why I question the efficacy of the logic.
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I'm with Henning. Unless the crash is the result of a graveyard spiral, good chance there will be survivors.

Many instances of a/c crashing hard with some fatalities and some survivors..
 
Henning said:
No, all you have to do is look at aircraft accidents and survival rates. Unless you are crashing in such a fashion to purposely die the chances of a survivor are considerably more than zero. Add to that it's typically the kids in the back seats and unless ditching, the back seat has a greater rate of survivorship than the front.
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yeah, that's logical
 
Sam D said:
From a person who has the "take the whole family flying" rule:

Yes, you are all correct and logical.

:)
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Like I said, I'm not convinced it's not the correct way to go about it and I definitely understand the sentiment.
 
Henning said:
Like I said, I'm not convinced it's not the correct way to go about it and I definitely understand the sentiment.
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Yep. There are certain things I choose not to take up with management. In exchange, I am well cared for!
 
Sam D said:
Yep. There are certain things I choose not to take up with management. In exchange, I am well cared for!
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This is pretty much how things roll in our house as well. I am free to fly by myself, with unrelated pax, or with just my daughter. But if my wife and I fly, so does the youngin'. Honestly we have never talked about the "leave no orphans" policy, but I'm sure that is what's in the back of my wife's mind. Never know, I guess. I follow along because she supports my aviation addiction, so whatever keeps the peace and the AvGas flowing works for me!
 
Jaybird180 said:
However, I believe that it is my destiny to die an old man with grand and great grands around. But I do own life insurance, just in case.
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When I was a younger man, it was my goal to be shot by a jealous husband. At 100. :) Now I've adopted my Dad's attitude... he always said he wanted to go in his sleep, with a big silly grin on his face.
 
DaleB said:
When I was a younger man, it was my goal to be shot by a jealous husband. At 100. :) Now I've adopted my Dad's attitude... he always said he wanted to go in his sleep, with a big silly grin on his face.
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... unlike the other people in his car.

Or so the joke goes.
 
ahh, I just don't get it. I don't go up thinking "man I hope I don't die this time", I think about flight planning, checklists, and a greased landing. I wouldn't want to fly with a pilot knowing he/she has this reservation. I understand what you guys are saying but I would hate to live life hunkered on my couch wearing a helmet always imagining the worst.
 
raider said:
ahh, I just don't get it. I don't go up thinking "man I hope I don't die this time", I think about flight planning, checklists, and a greased landing. I wouldn't want to fly with a pilot knowing he/she has this reservation. I understand what you guys are saying but I would hate to live life hunkered on my couch wearing a helmet always imagining the worst.
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I don't hope or worry on it either, this is all part of the thinking that goes into every flight planned. I look at the risks, see which ones I can eliminate at low cost and dump those, simple.
 
Henning said:
I don't hope or worry on it either, this is all part of the thinking that goes into every flight planned. I look at the risks, see which ones I can eliminate at low cost and dump those, simple.
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Life is full of risks. You can do everything possible to mitigate the risk but it will still be there. In my case, I hope it is training, planning, and equipment maintenance.
If you worry excessively about dying, you might have a much bigger problem. There is then no reason to leave your home in the morning. But then again, you can drown in an inch of water so I wouldn't suggest you take a bath any time soon either.
 
silver-eagle said:
Life is full of risks. You can do everything possible to mitigate the risk but it will still be there. In my case, I hope it is training, planning, and equipment maintenance.
If you worry excessively about dying, you might have a much bigger problem. There is then no reason to leave your home in the morning. But then again, you can drown in an inch of water so I wouldn't suggest you take a bath any time soon either.
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Fatalism is a workable life choice for decision making and I admit to using it as well when on my own. However there are two of me that gets in a plane or on a boat, there is the professional operator and the personal user.

My decision making when in professional operator mode is different than in personal user mode. Solo I can rely on fatalism since it's my fate alone. When I have passengers though I have a professional duty to consider all the risk factors and do my best to manage, reduce and eliminate the ones I can. I don't consider it's worry, I consider it part of the considerations required to execute the duties of PIC.
 
I'm sorry, I've stayed out of this thread but I can't anymore. This whole "take the kids too" thing is just plain bizarre to me. Maybe I'm missing something but I've been flying for nearly 20 years with my wife, kids, friends, relatives, associates, etc. and never have I left the ground thinking...gee, I need to bring my kids in case I crash!

1) If you are really so scared to fly that you have to even remotely consider "taking the kids too" it is time to (a) get some serious training or (b) find a new hobby
2) If you are convinced that the risk is so high that you might leave your kids as orphans then WHY IN THE H*LL are you taking them with you in the 1st place! Are you kidding me! You'd rather kill your children then let them grow up without you. Man, call me crazy but that seem seriously self centered to me.

Not trying to pick a fight or insult anyone here but I felt I needed to vent.
 
Interesting though that spot when combined with delays in NEXRAD leaves that picture inconclusive at best WRT that indication being an issue or not. What do you think? What would you suspect to be there that could swat a PC-12 out of the sky, or do you not think it's weather related?
 
Baron2PG said:
I'm sorry, I've stayed out of this thread but I can't anymore. This whole "take the kids too" thing is just plain bizarre to me. Maybe I'm missing something but I've been flying for nearly 20 years with my wife, kids, friends, relatives, associates, etc. and never have I left the ground thinking...gee, I need to bring my kids in case I crash!

1) If you are really so scared to fly that you have to even remotely consider "taking the kids too" it is time to (a) get some serious training or (b) find a new hobby
2) If you are convinced that the risk is so high that you might leave your kids as orphans then WHY IN THE H*LL are you taking them with you in the 1st place! Are you kidding me! You'd rather kill your children then let them grow up without you. Man, call me crazy but that seem seriously self centered to me.

Not trying to pick a fight or insult anyone here but I felt I needed to vent.
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Well said. The morbidity and constant fear seems to be something unique to the pilot population. No one racing crotch rockets for example talks about dying, or wishes they could take their whole family on the Hayabusa so they could all smack into a tree together at 200 MPH.

Sometimes all of it gets to me too, and I wonder if all this is as crazy dangerous as these forums make it seem.
 
Baron2PG said:
I'm sorry, I've stayed out of this thread but I can't anymore. This whole "take the kids too" thing is just plain bizarre to me. Maybe I'm missing something but I've been flying for nearly 20 years with my wife, kids, friends, relatives, associates, etc. and never have I left the ground thinking...gee, I need to bring my kids in case I crash!

1) If you are really so scared to fly that you have to even remotely consider "taking the kids too" it is time to (a) get some serious training or (b) find a new hobby
2) If you are convinced that the risk is so high that you might leave your kids as orphans then WHY IN THE H*LL are you taking them with you in the 1st place! Are you kidding me! You'd rather kill your children then let them grow up without you. Man, call me crazy but that seem seriously self centered to me.

Not trying to pick a fight or insult anyone here but I felt I needed to vent.
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That's pretty much how I feel.
 
Seriously.

Have a will. Have life insurance. Have people lined up to take care of your kids. Go fly, drive, ski, boat, walk down the street, whatever.
 
Life insurance that will pay off if you are in a GA plane is not significantly more expensive.

Like Henning, I have a different risk tolerance when I'm flying solo (higher), when I've got students or customers/pax (lower) and when I've got family (lowest).

If I die flying an airplane and leave my family behind, they will be in good financial shape. That's the best I can do.
 
Alexb2000 said:
Well said. The morbidity and constant fear seems to be something unique to the pilot population. No one racing crotch rockets for example talks about dying, or wishes they could take their whole family on the Hayabusa so they could all smack into a tree together at 200 MPH.

Sometimes all of it gets to me too, and I wonder if all this is as crazy dangerous as these forums make it seem.
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No such thing, boats are as bad or worse with many people.

What you are comparing is different risk reasons. Racers do these things FOR the danger and adrenaline. Pilots and boaters typically are not looking for danger or competition, they are looking for relaxation and a destination.
 
Nonetheless, thanks for sharing your thought process/reasoning. It's natural that this line of consideration would come to light at reports of accidents.
 
scottd said:
I think it's highly conclusive. Delays in NEXRAD? Not sure what you mean. This image is valid at a specific time (very close to the time of the accident). What you see is what you get.



He didn't fly into a thunderstorm. And there were no cells "brewing" in this immediate area that developed into something dangerous after the accident. Icing? I believe there was a good chance of structural icing on the climb from about 13,500 feet through 25,000 feet, but nothing that the IPS couldn't handle. Failed IPS? Possibly. I have talked to two other Pilatus owners that had their IPS fail while in icing conditions...not pretty.
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By delays in NEXRAD, at least the images I see always are at least a couple minutes behind what is out the window. I have seen far to many times where I was told by ATC and the XM picture to turn right due to a bad assed cell showing in front of me while I simultaneously look straight ahead into clear air and out the right or left window at a black wall.

Icing is an interesting consideration....
 
Henning said:
No such thing, boats are as bad or worse with many people.

What you are comparing is different risk reasons. Racers do these things FOR the danger and adrenaline. Pilots and boaters typically are not looking for danger or competition, they are looking for relaxation and a destination.
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I'll counter with Harley's. Lots of middle aged responsible people buy them, drive to a bar, have a few, then go riding around without helmets. No one brings a spreadsheet to the bar calculating the probability of dying on a bike.

Or at least they don't do it twice:)
 
Henning said:
By delays in NEXRAD, at least the images I see always are at least a couple minutes behind what is out the window. I have seen far to many times where I was told by ATC and the XM picture to turn right due to a bad assed cell showing in front of me while I simultaneously look straight ahead into clear air and out the right or left window at a black wall.

Icing is an interesting consideration....
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The wx radar picture shown by Scott was a real time as it occurred picture. The delay you get from xm is the time it takes the weather service computer to process the data and transmit. The more wx the more delay.

After two years of using xm I dropped the subscription. I concluded the that I could get in more trouble using it than not.
 
scottd said:
These are archived images valid at a specific time, so there's no delay to consider. If I showed you the latest image occurring right now, yes, there would be some delay from reality. Make sense?
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Yep, makes sense, I'm not familiar enough to know what the time stamp represents.
 
TMetzinger said:
Life insurance that will pay off if you are in a GA plane is not significantly more expensive.

Like Henning, I have a different risk tolerance when I'm flying solo (higher), when I've got students or customers/pax (lower) and when I've got family (lowest).

If I die flying an airplane and leave my family behind, they will be in good financial shape. That's the best I can do.
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Me, too. In fact it prompts me to do more thorough preflights after wife slyly grins and says "you just might be worth more dead than alive..." :yikes:
 
scottd said:
That I would have to say is a serious problem...assuming you look at charts, maps, diagrams, etc. Any pilot that doesn't understand how to read date-time stamps is looking for trouble. Not trying to be critical, but concerned.
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That is true. You are presenting me with an image that is not one presented to me in any briefing format I ever use. The time stamp does not indicate whether it is at the time of gather or dissemination or what the process/distribution latency is. The plethora of un-standardized display formats in our information age is becoming problematic, any time I see a ground based radar type image I cannot assume the accuracy of the timing.
 
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