PA32 down near Bakersfield

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clarkmueller

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Clark
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It sure looks like a VFR flight, and there were a lot of clouds around yesterday. Further south later in the day.

I wonder what the distress call was. Curiously, I saw neither the ALNOT nor any CAP traffic on the topic yesterday.
 
Wondering if it closed in on him. No way that could be an IFR plan.
 
VFR at 17.5, in the weather MAKG mentions, planning on landing after dark. Hmmm
 
Sam D said:
VFR at 17.5, in the weather MAKG mentions, planning on landing after dark. Hmmm
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And Bakersfield is where you have to start across the mountains. Not THAT high, but the weather often piles up over there due to three mountain ranges coming together, on all sides except the one he came from.
 
Last radio contact is on LiveATC (KBFL Dec 19 23:30). He's informed of moderate precip ahead and is offered an IFR clearance which he takes and reads back. He's queried about his northerly heading and says he's about to turn. No response to two vectors (RT 095). Then a couple of mayday calls and that's it. Maybe an unusual attitude with the heads down time and too abrupt control inputs?
 
Looks like conditions where getting worse,might have tried Turing back earlier. Might have been controlled flight into IMC.
 
Based on some of the pictures of the aircraft, it looks like it doesn't have any meaningful de-ice equipment. Accepting an IFR clearance into that weather sure doesn't seem like something that was going to make the situation better, sadly.
 
clarkmueller said:
Based on some of the pictures of the aircraft, it looks like it doesn't have any meaningful de-ice equipment. Accepting an IFR clearance into that weather sure doesn't seem like something that was going to make the situation better, sadly.
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Depends. Weather on Friday was easily flyable IFR, with a 9000 foot freezing level and stratus clouds. I didn't fly yesterday.

But at 17500, precipitation might easily have already been frozen. No ice in that case.
 
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MAKG1 said:
Depends. Weather on Friday was easily flyable IFR, with a 9000 foot freezing level and stratus clouds. I didn't fly yesterday.

But at 17500, precipitation might easily have already been frozen. No ice in that case.
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Looks like he was over some flat terrain for awhile before the crash. If he was picking up ice and with a freezing level like that, don't you think he would have been asking for a quick descent?
 
dell30rb said:
Looks like he was over some flat terrain for awhile before the crash. If he was picking up ice and with a freezing level like that, don't you think he would have been asking for a quick descent?
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Apparently there was a distress call. No one has said what was in it. Maybe it was a quick descent. Maybe too quick (tailplane stall).

Or maybe there was a completely different problem such as disorientation, mechanical problems, medical problems, etc. Lotsa possibilities.
 
MAKG1 said:
Apparently there was a distress call. No one has said what was in it. Maybe it was a quick descent. Maybe too quick (tailplane stall).

Or maybe there was a completely different problem such as disorientation, mechanical problems, medical problems, etc. Lotsa possibilities.
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only distress calls were two mayday calls// He did not respond to repeated call backs from Bakersfield tower or LA center...
 
"Engine failure" my raw monkey-butt. Local news is taking over from the NTSB, eh?

Engine failure doesn't cause one to fall out of the sky from 17,000' with his two daughters screaming like they're on a Six Flags ride. He would have had a long time to work that problem.
 
ollopa said:
"Engine failure" my raw monkey-butt
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Agreed. Sounds like VFR into IMC...barring mechanical problem question then becomes spacial orientation leading to loss of control or icing leading to loss of control.

Them clouds can be a killer if you do not know what you are doing.
 
ollopa said:
"Engine failure" my raw monkey-butt. Local news is taking over from the NTSB, eh?

Engine failure doesn't cause one to fall out of the sky from 17,000' with his two daughters screaming like they're on a Six Flags ride. He would have had a long time to work that problem.
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It can if the engine departs the airplane, say, due to an imbalance.
 
FlySince9 said:
Is there another recording... The one I listened to there were 2 Maydays and then nothing...
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The second call sounded like it might have some background noise...but I'm not going to listen to it again to confirm. Too sad.
 
Shawn said:
Agreed. Sounds like VFR into IMC...barring mechanical problem question then becomes spacial orientation leading to loss of control or icing leading to loss of control.

Them clouds can be a killer if you do not know what you are doing.
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There is a lot of stuff it could be. The wreckage will tell some tales. For instance, it will expose missing parts or an in-flight breakup.

For now, all we know is that he crashed and had enough notice to send out a brief distress call. All else is speculation, and may end up being very, very wrong.
 
MAKG1 said:
All else is speculation, and may end up being very, very wrong.
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Agreed but I would argue that the speculation and input of everyone's option coming from a wide variety of experiences is a valuable learning tool for those that follow these threads of how to prevent potential issues in the future.

I know it has been for me in reading post about accidents.

I speculated that it was VFR into IMC. If it helps one VFR pilot understanding the actual real life consequences of going into IMC or prevents that pilot from making another bad decision then the speculation is worth it.

The brainstorming of ideas and everyone's interpretation of the available evidence often leads to the eventual actual cause so in my opinion Monday Morning piloting is not always a negative.
 
To the person whose post I just deleted, here is a reminder from the top of the page.

Pilots of America permits anonymous posting in the Medical Topics forum, as well as in the Lessons Learned forum, but ONLY when disclosing your OWN potential or existing medical condition, potential violation of FAA regulations, incident or accident in which you may have been involved. Posts made anonymously in response to such posts will be deleted unless the content of the response requires anonymity.
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Perhaps, but it's better to use a situation where the facts are already known. AOPA/ASI has several examples, and you'll run into more if you ever go through CAP training.

Everything in this thread could be wildly off base, and then it says very little about what the real risks are. What it does say is what the POA population is afraid of, which may or may not be related.
 
MAKG1 said:
It can if the engine departs the airplane, say, due to an imbalance.
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Wouldn't that be deemed a structural failure and not an engine failure? Then again, fuel management is the leading cause of engine failure and technically I don't think the engine failed in its duties under those circumstances either. :dunno:
 
Shawn said:
Agreed but I would argue that the speculation and input of everyone's option coming from a wide variety of experiences is a valuable learning tool for those that follow these threads of how to prevent potential issues in the future.
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No, it's actually just speculative BS.
 
MAKG1 said:
Apparently there was a distress call. No one has said what was in it. Maybe it was a quick descent. Maybe too quick (tailplane stall).

Or maybe there was a completely different problem such as disorientation, mechanical problems, medical problems, etc. Lotsa possibilities.
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The quick distress call usually comes from something like spatial disorientation.

Mechanical problems.. he was at 17k feet. A control failure or structural failure are highly unlikely. Engine or fuel trouble, plenty of time to deal with that.

Could have been a tailplane stall but there would have to be a lot of obvious ice on the wings, and with the warm air below and no terrain he should have been descending at a pretty good airspeed.
 
Flying at night, during the winter, approaching mountains where weather occurs, in rain and clouds, at 15,000 feet or higher with the icing level likely very low, in a single-engine aircraft without deicing equipment, with three children aboard, is a judgment call that a lot of us would not have done, regardless of what the NTSB determines is the cause of this unfortunate accident.
 
It wasn't night, and freezing != ice.

For all we know, he was in the clear above the clouds.

Until we know what happened, we can't possibly make a judgment that we wouldn't have done the same thing, regardless of what we might want to be true.

Something tells me some details will be coming out soon. It turns out the PIC was a relatively new CAP member at a neighboring squadron. I didn't know him or his cadet son. No, I'm not going to ask around as it's clearly going to be sensitive. I'll report details as they are volunteered, if (and only if) that makes sense in context.
 
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MAKG --

This was a planned flight at "night" because the ETA at destination - over mountainous desert terrain - would have been at night. The fact that the accident happened a few minutes before dusk doesn't take away from that fact that the pilot planned a night flight, over mountanous terrain, in the winter, in cold and rainy weather, where the icing level was likely very low, with kids aboard, in a turbo aircraft that is capable of climbing high, but incapable of handling icing.

Yes, we are all speculating about what happened, but we're all trying to learn from each other's comments, otherwise none of us would post any comments about the accdent at all until months or years later when the NTSB issues its final report. You have made valuable comments, as have others, which we are all considering and learning from. Even if it turns out that weather was not a factor, a discussion about when to go and not go is valuable.
 
MAKG --

This was a planned flight at "night" because the ETA at destination - over mountainous desert terrain - would have been at night. The fact that the accident happened a few minutes before dusk doesn't take away from that fact that the pilot planned a night flight, over mountanous terrain, in the winter, in cold and rainy weather, where the icing level was likely very low, with kids aboard, in a turbo aircraft that is capable of climbing high, but incapable of handling icing.

Yes, we are all speculating about what happened, but we're all trying to learn from each other's comments, otherwise none of us would post any comments about the accdent at all until months or years later when the NTSB issues its final report. You have made valuable comments, as have others, which we are all considering and learning from. Even if it turns out that weather was not a factor, a discussion about when to go and not go is valuable.
 
He could very easily have a planned route with no terrain above 4000, and the highest terrain right in front of him, to be traversed before sunset. I've been over the San Gabriels not that far from there at a very similar time, and in a much less capable aircraft. That he was anywhere near Bakersfield indicates he was avoiding the high terrain. A direct route from San Jose to Henderson passes quite a bit north, over much higher terrain.

If you truly want to learn from this, you can't write him off as an idiot. You won't get far flying around California if 4000 feet terrain is too high.
 
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I have to agree with MAKG on this one. It appeared the pilot was planning on crossing the Sierras around Tehachapi, which is by far the most conservative routing. The summit is a little above 4000 ft and the terrain is not nearly as treacherous as if he had crossed anywhere further North. Really that is the lowest and safest spot to cross the Sierras in all of California.
 
Direct C51 said:
I have to agree with MAKG on this one. It appeared the pilot was planning on crossing the Sierras around Tehachapi, which is by far the most conservative routing. The summit is a little above 4000 ft and the terrain is not nearly as treacherous as if he had crossed anywhere further North. Really that is the lowest and safest spot to cross the Sierras in all of California.
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Maybe. The facts remain he was at 17500 at night in a mountainous region in a single piston non-FIKI with moderate precip in the area (that WILL contain ice), accepting an IFR clearance without an IR...

I'm with BobCA. Not the best choices to be making with your young family on board. Not a choice I'd make.
 
My standing bid on these is and will remain, simpleton spatial d to a loss of control. IMC is just no fun.
 
I listened to LiveATC during the last 15 minutes of the flight.

There was a Cessna 414, N37557, that was on top at 18,000 who reported they were in and out of the clouds, and that the clouds were higher up ahead. They were northbound according to FlightAware.

The Saratoga, N36402, checks in at 17,100, and asks to descend to 15,500. They are not flying IFR. The controller says VFR altitude at your discretion.

The controller tells N37557 that there is heavy precipation up ahead. N36402 hears this and asks the controller where is that aircraft, saying "Can I get over to their altitude and clear the clouds."

The controller says that N37557 is 1 mile east of the Shafter VOR at 18,000, and at your 11 o clock position and 30 miles. So that puts N37557 south of the Cessna 414.

Later the Saratogaa asks what is the bottom of the clouds, and the controller says he doesn't know, and reports that there is light rime icing up to flight level 19,000, southeast of your area (the direction I presume the Saratoga was flying).

The Saratoga says they are going to deviate to the south to Barstow.

The controller reports cloud tops up to 21,000 feet, and later 22,000 feet. The Saratoga says we will "Keep chasing the clouds to Palmdale."

Finally, the controller says "Do you want an IFR clearance to Henderson" and the Saratoga says "Yeah, I would take that." This confirms he was flying VFR. Someone posted that the pilot was not instrument rated, but he accepts an IFR clearance, so I don't know if he was instrument rated, or perhaps he wasn't and accepted an IFR clearance anyways because he was in trouble.

The clearance is Hector Victor 21 Boulder direct at 15,000. The Saratoga reads back the clearance, but he doesn't include V21 in his readback and the controller doesn't ask for it to be read back exactly. V21 is the direct route from Hector to Boulder.

Then the controller asks whether the Saratoga is for some reason turning northbound, and the pilot says "Roger, I just took a heading off of Bakersfield" and is changing to the current IFR clearance.

The controller then says fly a heading of 095 and there is no response. I assume this is for traffic.

The controller shortly later says more urgently for the Saratoga to made an immediate right turn to 095. A few seconds later the pilot says "mayday, mayday, mayday. About 15 seconds later, the pilot again says "mayday, mayday, mayday" more urgently and you can hear what appears to be screams in the background. That's the last transmission.

Why was this pilot flying VFR? Did he accept an IFR clearance without having an IFR rating? Even if he was IFR rated, did he accept a clearance at 15,000 that would put him in clouds. Was it icing or spatial disorientation? Lots of questions. Very sad.

Bob
 
BobCA said:
I listened to LiveATC during the last 15 minutes of the flight.

There was a Cessna 414, N37557, that was on top at 18,000 who reported they were in and out of the clouds, and that the clouds were higher up ahead. They were northbound according to FlightAware.

The Saratoga, N36402, checks in at 17,100, and asks to descend to 15,500. They are not flying IFR. The controller says VFR altitude at your discretion.

The controller tells N37557 that there is heavy precipation up ahead. N36402 hears this and asks the controller where is that aircraft, saying "Can I get over to their altitude and clear the clouds."

The controller says that N37557 is 1 mile east of the Shafter VOR at 18,000, and at your 11 o clock position and 30 miles. So that puts N37557 south of the Cessna 414.

Later the Saratogaa asks what is the bottom of the clouds, and the controller says he doesn't know, and reports that there is light rime icing up to flight level 19,000, southeast of your area (the direction I presume the Saratoga was flying).

The Saratoga says they are going to deviate to the south to Barstow.

The controller reports cloud tops up to 21,000 feet, and later 22,000 feet. The Saratoga says we will "Keep chasing the clouds to Palmdale."

Finally, the controller says "Do you want an IFR clearance to Henderson" and the Saratoga says "Yeah, I would take that." This confirms he was flying VFR. Someone posted that the pilot was not instrument rated, but he accepts an IFR clearance, so I don't know if he was instrument rated, or perhaps he wasn't and accepted an IFR clearance anyways because he was in trouble.

The clearance is Hector Victor 21 Boulder direct at 15,000. The Saratoga reads back the clearance, but he doesn't include V21 in his readback and the controller doesn't ask for it to be read back exactly. V21 is the direct route from Hector to Boulder.

Then the controller asks whether the Saratoga is for some reason turning northbound, and the pilot says "Roger, I just took a heading off of Bakersfield" and is changing to the current IFR clearance.

The controller then says fly a heading of 095 and there is no response. I assume this is for traffic.

The controller shortly later says more urgently for the Saratoga to made an immediate right turn to 095. A few seconds later the pilot says "mayday, mayday, mayday. About 15 seconds later, the pilot again says "mayday, mayday, mayday" more urgently and you can hear what appears to be screams in the background. That's the last transmission.

Why was this pilot flying VFR? Did he accept an IFR clearance without having an IFR rating? Even if he was IFR rated, did he accept a clearance at 15,000 that would put him in clouds. Was it icing or spatial disorientation? Lots of questions. Very sad.

Bob
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That is very sad indeed. Bad situation to be in.

Could he of just hit the auto Pilot if he had one?
 
Let's just go with 'weather' being one of the main factors, besides backing up to the idea of taking off or continuing the flight in deteriorating conditions.

I don't need to listen to the audio, this picture of the family is enough.
 

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SmashTime said:
That is very sad indeed. Bad situation to be in.

Could he of just hit the auto Pilot if he had one?
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If icing or mechanical difficulties were factors, it wouldn't have helped. It might have refused to engage if he were already in an unusual attitude even with no other factors.
 
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