Now that medical reform has passed what effect will this have on the price of aircraft?

Morgan3820

Morgan3820

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Now that medical reform has passed what effect will this have on the price of aircraft?
 
Good time to pick up a light sport.
 
I think the higher end light sports may come down a bit. Can't really see Cubs, Champs, Chiefs selling for a ton less than they are now.
 
May bring the price of older non Lsa aircraft ,up a bit.
 
I don't think it will change much. Think there will more flying though.
 
Hopefully it makes aircraft almost free, 100LL flow like water, and new avionics for everyone on the gub'mint's dime. And the stock market will hit record highs and stay there forever.
 
I think it will kill any new LSA sales and slightly hurt used ones. Shouldn't have an impact on anything non LSA.
 
You'll no longer see 65 hp Champs selling for more than 90 hp Champs
 
I expect to take a hit on the Jabiru. Cheaper to maintain and fly but slower and weight restricted. Maybe if they could remove the LSA label. It's certified in other incarnations to 1540.
 
Considering that the only thing that has changed is that fewer pilots will lose their existing medicals, the only change that should occur is that slightly fewer airplanes will come onto the market. I'd expect that prices will decline at a slightly slower rate.

As far as LSA goes,there are only about a net of 300 new sport pilots each year, I suspect it won't make a noticeable difference.

If you look at the FAA airmen statistics, there's a large cohort of private pilots between the ages of 50 and 69. These folks will age out over the next 15 years or so, and will be replaced by a smaller group. I'd expect that the fleet will slowly shrink, just as it has been doing.

It may be that some pilots move from flying twins to singles, so maybe the high performance single market holds up better than it would have otherwise.
 
What is the percentage of pilots whom this rule will benefit? On this board there seem to be many with medical concerns. In real life not so much so. But most of the pilots I know in real life would go for the SI if needed since they are working pilots. I also know quite a few people in non-flying jobs who could have had some medical problem and quit flying, only I don't know that since it isn't something I would discuss with people unless they brought it up first.
 
Morgan3820 said:
Now that medical reform has passed what effect will this have on the price of aircraft?
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Barnstormer etc will have fewer ads that say "lost medical."

I think that's for sure.

That will mean less supply, which should promote higher prices. Maybe it will be only a small effect, but simple microeconomics tells you it should be at least a real effect.
 
ejensen said:
I expect to take a hit on the Jabiru. Cheaper to maintain and fly but slower and weight restricted. Maybe if they could remove the LSA label. It's certified in other incarnations to 1540.
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That's in PBOR3!
We need your money!
NoHeat said:
Barnstormer etc will have fewer ads that say "lost medical."

I think that's for sure.

That will mean less supply, which should promote higher prices. Maybe it will be only a small effect, but simple microeconomics tells you it should be at least a real effect.
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That, or the airplanes on the ground will get used more, but I think you're right.
 
Everskyward said:
What is the percentage of pilots whom this rule will benefit? On this board there seem to be many with medical concerns. In real life not so much so. But most of the pilots I know in real life would go for the SI if needed since they are working pilots. I also know quite a few people in non-flying jobs who could have had some medical problem and quit flying, only I don't know that since it isn't something I would discuss with people unless they brought it up first.
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At Aviation Day here in Everett, there were quite a few at the CAP booth that just gave up their medical for OSA (that was the big one), and other issues. Guys that had been flying for 30 years. It'll be good for them to get back in the air.
 
Jeffythequick said:
At Aviation Day here in Everett, there were quite a few at the CAP booth that just gave up their medical for OSA (that was the big one), and other issues. Guys that had been flying for 30 years. It'll be good for them to get back in the air.
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Oh, good point. I didn't think of it, but that's something that will enhance demand for used planes.

So now you'll have both:
  • the supply curve drooping (fewer planes advertised because of "lost medical") and
  • the demand curve rising (experienced pilots taking up the hobby again).

Both of those trends will cause the price of used planes to rise. It's straightforward microeconomics to predict that the effect will be real, even if it might be small.
 
Art VanDelay said:
LSA's are no doubt to take a slam dunk !
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Yes, demand will dry up for those. There weren't many new sport pilot certificates being issued. It seemed that the demand for LSA was mostly from older pilots who didn't want to get their medical certificate renewed.
 
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I've had 2 calls already from old customers that would like me to breath life back into their aircraft that they put in storage. I believe the A&P's will be busy for a while, along with the CFIs that will be doing back in the saddles lessons.
 
Can someone explain the thinking here to me?

What changed with medical? Why will that affect prices and sales (I'm getting the idea because the medical requirements have been loosened less pilots will fail medicals and therefore keep their planes?)

And also wondering, I'm in Norway and I don't have stats to back it up but get the impression that there are far fewer people interested in flying, that the number has been dwindling down for the last decade or so. How is it in the US? Way back when I lived there it seemed to be booming with people wanting to learn to fly.
 
Shhh.......Did you hear that? I think I just heard Rotax's hiney hole pucker up.
 
Just a guess ... prices of most LSA-qualified legacy airplanes (Champ 7AC, T-Craft, Ercoupe 415-C, etc.) will drift down somewhat and there will be fewer pricey restorations of these. Cubs, for whatever reason, will always demand a premium. Entry-level airplanes over 1320 lb MGW (e.g., C-150) will now be in greater demand and prices will firm up.

Like I said, just a guess.
 
all aircraft will be worth more money it is a basic tenant of supply and demand.i owned 3 7ac champs and had a class 2 medical people are not buying champs and cubs just to fly lsa.very hard to find a nice champ if you know what to look for took me 4 years and alot of $
 
LongRoadBob said:
Can someone explain the thinking here to me?

What changed with medical? Why will that affect prices and sales (I'm getting the idea because the medical requirements have been loosened less pilots will fail medicals and therefore keep their planes?)

And also wondering, I'm in Norway and I don't have stats to back it up but get the impression that there are far fewer people interested in flying, that the number has been dwindling down for the last decade or so. How is it in the US? Way back when I lived there it seemed to be booming with people wanting to learn to fly.
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No more 3rd Class Medical Cert. requirement for non-commercial flying. The thinking is that all the guys and gals who have had to move to the Light Sport category, because they couldn't qualify for a 3rd Class Medical, will now be able to fly big boy planes again. I think we're all assuming that if folks don't have to fly LSA aircraft, they won't, and LSA manufacturers won't have anyone bent over a barrel anymore, so the prices of that category of flying machines should fall some. If that holds true, then there will be a lot of former LSA pilots in the market for normal airplanes, thus increasing demand and prices.
 
FormerHangie said:
As far as LSA goes,there are only about a net of 300 new sport pilots each year, I suspect it won't make a noticeable difference.
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Is that just new people certificated with sport pilot privileges, or does that number also include those with a private that choose to only exercise sport pilot privileges in order to avoid the medical?
 
PPC1052 said:
Is that just new people certificated with sport pilot privileges, or does that number also include those with a private that choose to only exercise sport pilot privileges in order to avoid the medical?
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I'm not sure, there's not an explanation.
 
I don't see this having that much of an impact on LSA. There aren't that many of them around (3000 total registrations, according to Dan Johnson's web site) and fewer than 200 new registration last year (also according to Dan Johnson). Almost a quarter of those were Cub clones, and considering actual Cubs are available, that market won't change. Most of the rest are modern landplanes. I think a new SLSA RV-12 is about $130,000, while the nearest equivalent non-LSA is a Diamond DA-20 and is closer to $ 230,000. That's a big difference, so I don't think those who were buying new LSAs will switch over to non-LSA. Only time will tell.
 
Maybe on the older planes but I think the demand for LSA is still going to rise as more and more kids with ADHD diagnoses and there are a whole lot of them, still can't get the original 3rd class and LSA will still be the only option short of spending $5000+ to get that re-evaluated
 
PPC1052 said:
Is that just new people certificated with sport pilot privileges, or does that number also include those with a private that choose to only exercise sport pilot privileges in order to avoid the medical?
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Almost certain it has to be the former - there's no real way to track which pilots are still Private, Commercial or ATP and just operating under LSA Limitations sans medical.
 
Here are some other factors to consider.
  • How many of those pilots were grounded so long that the cost of putting sitting aircraft back in service will time them out? I think there will be a portion of the grounded pilot population that will get back in, but a lot of planes sitting on the tarmac were not mothballed. We've all seen them on TAP and Barnstormers.
  • Will there be a group that will say..."you know what I'm still out?"
  • For those heavily invested in current LSA aircraft it will be harder to sell out and they may decide not to jump ship if it still meets their need to fly.
  • For some ego will drive them to get back in and then decide to stop flying on their own terms not based on some arbitrary decision by the FAA to tell them when they are out of flying. However, these may be a few last hurrah folks only time will tell.
  • Others may have sat on the sidelines for so long that they decide the added expense of a full on go anywhere plane is not what they need and will
I think their will be a bump in pilots getting back in but over all I don't think that there will be an appreciable hike on older aircraft prices. Or maybe (wishful thinking) we will have a group of older aircraft brought back into airworthiness and only a minimal hike in price as some pilots decided to get back in but then backed out.
 
I won't be quick to switch. My last annual was $500 including re-coating the prop. I can use instruments and such that are not allowed in normal category aircraft. It uses NAPA oil and air filters can run on mo-gas.
 
Somehow I have to think most of the people who are flying LSA are doing so because they like it, and aren't really wishing they could fly something else.
 
Now what if we add a decent part23 rewrite to the question?
 
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