More frustrating wx...

[azure]

I spent most of this afternoon at the airport waiting for the forecast of plain IFR, and not LIFR or VLIFR, to come true so I could go out and shoot some approaches in actual. Here is a sampling of the METARs from earlier today:

KMPV 071611Z AUTO 34006KT 2SM BR OVC001 11/11 A3028 RMK AO2 RAB1556E11 P0000 T01110111 $
KMPV 071633Z AUTO 35005KT 6SM BR OVC001 11/11 A3028 RMK AO2 RAB1556E11 P0001 T01110111 $
KMPV 071651Z AUTO 04004KT 9SM OVC002 11/11 A3028 RMK AO2 RAB1556E11 SLP257 P0001 T01110111 $
KMPV 071705Z AUTO 04004KT 10SM OVC003 11/11 A3028 RMK AO2 T01110111 $
KMPV 071724Z AUTO 05005KT 10SM OVC005 11/11 A3028 RMK AO2 T01110111 $
KMPV 071751Z AUTO 04006KT 10SM OVC005 11/11 A3029 RMK AO2 SLP260 60001 T01110106 10139 20106 51010 $
KMPV 071851Z AUTO 34005KT 10SM OVC004 11/11 A3031 RMK AO2 CIG 002V006 SLP267 T01060106 $
KMPV 071859Z AUTO 33005KT 9SM OVC002 10/10 A3030 RMK AO2 T01000100 $
KMPV 071942Z AUTO 34004KT 10SM OVC005 10/10 A3030 RMK AO2 CIG 002V009 T01000100 $
KMPV 071951Z AUTO 34005KT 10SM OVC005 10/10 A3031 RMK AO2 CIG 002V007 SLP268 T01000100 $
KMPV 072051Z AUTO 01004KT 10SM OVC007 10/10 A3032 RMK AO2 CIG 005V009 SLP271 T01000100 51010 $
KMPV 072149Z AUTO 33004KT 3SM BR OVC004 09/09 A3036 RMK AO2 CIG 002V008 $
KMPV 072151Z AUTO 33004KT 3SM BR OVC004 09/09 A3036 RMK AO2 CIG 002V008 SLP285 T00940094 $
KMPV 072200Z AUTO 34005KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC002 09/09 A3036 RMK AO2 T00890089 $

As you can see, the ceilings came up at first, then went down, then came back up, then went back down again. For a time between 1751Z and 1851Z it was OVC007 for a while and I almost launched. But even that OVC007 didn't tell the whole story, since while the bases might have been at 700 directly over the sensor, along the approach path for the ILS 17 there was some low scud advecting in from the NE and the ceiling there was probably not even 200. And that's the only approach that you had even a ghost of a chance of getting in on, that or the LPV to 17.

This was not widespread LIFR; over at KBTV it was MVFR for most of the afternoon. But there is no one who would have driven down there to pick me up and I need to be at work tomorrow morning.

Frustrating...

 

[benyflyguy]

That sucks. Good call on not going though when you thought there might be a window then you get stuck making a tough call for a ride. My homedrome can do that. Just gets stuck at 300 overcast and you think it’ll lift and it just hangs everywhere else is vfr

 

[frfly172]

Smart not to launch ,until the weather is actually coming up.

 

[scottfromboston]

Bummer. Conditions around here have been on/off great for "Gentlemen's IFR" for about a week - doubled my time in actual, plus some more as a safety pilot (sorta)!

 

[azure]

Smart not to launch ,until the weather is actually coming up.

Back in Michigan I launched several times when I wasn't sure I would be able to get back into home base, as long as I knew I could get in at Pontiac. A couple of times I even had to leave my plane there overnight. But Pontiac was only 10-15 miles from home base and it was easy to find someone to pick me up. Here, Burlington is at least 40.

Sigh. Flyable IFR conditions are an extreme rarity here. Today will be another chance later in the day but I have to work. Tomorrow? Supposed to lift to VFR by afternoon and I have a meeting in the morning. Fingers crossed.

 

[tawood]

They actually predicted similar conditions here (200 OVC) yesterday, but we had 900-1100 instead for most of the day, and I got in two non-precision approaches.

 

[azure]

They actually predicted similar conditions here (200 OVC) yesterday, but we had 900-1100 instead for most of the day, and I got in two non-precision approaches.

I read your other thread, sounds like you had a good flight. The Flint controllers are generally excellent. I've flown all the approaches there, including three for my checkride, and once or twice in actual. Brings back good memories.

 

[tawood]

I like both Flint and Saginaw...both are professional, and busy enough, without being overly busy. Detroit gets a little too busy at times for my experience level...