Let’s talk stocks

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Torque beast

Pre-takeoff checklist
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Bryan
What are your stocks you have invested in? Why? Which one’s are you considering dumping due to reaching a plateau? I have UP, Apple, Tesla and Virgin Galactic but have been watching Textron lately and it seems to be going up. What do you think textron will do with what seems to be a spiked interest in GA?


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I don't hold a lot of individual stocks. I have most of my money in the generic Year 20XX mutual fund and a fair amount in an S&P 500 index fund. If I were looking at some potential growth areas in the near term, I'd look at companies that stand to benefit from the upcoming gov't infrastructure bills. Concrete companies, fiberoptic runs, etc. as they ramp up to fix bridges and push "high speed internet for the masses". Probably some space in the green tech companies, too, since they have favorable companions in office. I'm sure Tesla will continue to rise, but I just have a hard time buying into it based off of the fundamentals . . . especially now that the big automakers have entered the chat. I wouldn't look at Textron, personally, and certainly not for growth in the GA segment.
 
Once my instructor told me: "I put all my money in a solid investment I can count on: NAVAJO!"
 
The serious money:
3M, PG, Apple, Chevron/Texaco, Ford, GE.
Mutual funds focusing on growth and capital preservation.
Couple of index funds.

A bit of Virgin Galactic and Tesla
Made 10X on my Boeing. Wish I had the cash a year ago to buy back in at $90, but such is life.

I'm up 50% on Tesla, but believe more in Ford over the long run. Was up quite a bit a few months ago, shoulda sold it then.
Will probably sell VG this fall at the next launch, it'll go up again. That will pay for a goodly part of the new avionics

Then there's the Play Money. Just a little, for grins.
10 shares of GameStop (what else?) There's a lot going on with the new business model, as well as a number of Amazon people coming in. If and when it goes back down below $120 (as it did a week ago), might buy another little bit.
100 shares of a weed stock that announced a June merger back in Jan (this from someone who's allergic to weed)

Already sold off the crypto-related stuff at 3X profit
0.04994163 Bitcoin, just to say I own some Bitcoin.
 
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I recently rolled over an employer 403b account into a self-directed IRA. Left with a chunk of change sitting in my IRA brokerage account, I figured I'd work on investing in a diversified portfolio with a reasonable amount of risk.

I subscribe to Motely Fool's Stock Advisor, and Rule Breakers. I've gone with some of their picks, as well as just putting some in no-load index funds. I know I'm an investor, not a trader. But, it is tough watching as some of my choices have been steadily trending down for the last 2 weeks.
 
eman1200 said:
EMAN! put all your money in EMAN. it's been a rough coupl'a weeks but I'm still up dozens of dollars since september.

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Lol. I’ll stay where I’m at but am looking for something different.
e2dcf6ce43a6b6f8ac0d5f0e60127121.jpg



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I wish I would have bought John Deere but missed out on the recent climb. I agree with Ford. Been watching it for a while and think it will go up with these electric vehicles


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Torque beast said:
Lol. I’ll stay where I’m at but am looking for something different.
e2dcf6ce43a6b6f8ac0d5f0e60127121.jpg



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is that stock named Torque Beast? no? ppffftttt. I got a mofo'ing stock named after me. that's worth more than 975%, sheeeeeit. (ok not really, but still)
 
eman1200 said:
is that stock named Torque Beast? no? ppffftttt. I got a mofo'ing stock named after me. that's worth more than 975%, sheeeeeit. (ok not really, but still)
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No stock named after me, wouldn’t be worth much.


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Going long with TQQQ cuz damn the torpedoes!
 
I'm an active day trader but only trade options. Don't usually hold longer than a week or two. Traded CAT calls for 56% overnight Tuesday to Wednesday. Had an alert set for DE but the spreads were too large. Also had SBUX alert set this week that triggered but I didn't get in that one. That could have been a nice 100% win easily in a day or two.

I just ran my scans and set my watchlist for next week and for this month.

Month W/L:
NKE long break over 134.69
PEP long over 142.27
LOW long over 191.88
MCD long over 226.22
ETSY long over 208.20


Weekly W/L:
INTC long over 65.13
DIS long over 189.10
LVS long over 62.23

ETSY has a ways to go to trigger and may suffer exhaustion risk once it gets there so I would look at smaller timeframes to look for an entry. Probably a 60 minute chart for entry. Likely to get there then consolidate for a day or so before breaking it.

I am not a licensed financial advisor and this is not financial advice but just sharing what I'm looking at.

I am going to start looking at longer term setups and buy options expiring about 6 months out and look to hold for a month or two and look for about 100% wins but will sell when I detect a reversal.
 
I kept watching GE last year when it was down at $6-7. I'm kicking myself now for not jumping in on it as a long hold. I got some Delta and Virgin Galactic back when it was at its lowest last fall. Hoping that VG turns into my "Yeah, I bought when it was just $xx! Can you believe it?!" story that I tell my grandkids.
 
wilkersk said:
I recently rolled over an employer 403b account into a self-directed IRA. Left with a chunk of change sitting in my IRA brokerage account, I figured I'd work on investing in a diversified portfolio with a reasonable amount of risk.

I subscribe to Motely Fool's Stock Advisor, and Rule Breakers. I've gone with some of their picks, as well as just putting some in no-load index funds. I know I'm an investor, not a trader. But, it is tough watching as some of my choices have been steadily trending down for the last 2 weeks.
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I gave up on MF for two reasons....non-stop advertising how great they were, and non-stop failure of ehat they were pushing. Lost a chunk, even over the long term (3+ yrs) I can lose money on my own, thank you.
 
optionizerSS said:
I'm an active day trader but only trade options. Don't usually hold longer than a week or two. Traded CAT calls for 56% overnight Tuesday to Wednesday. Had an alert set for DE but the spreads were too large. Also had SBUX alert set this week that triggered but I didn't get in that one. That could have been a nice 100% win easily in a day or two.

I just ran my scans and set my watchlist for next week and for this month.

Month W/L:
NKE long break over 134.69
PEP long over 142.27
LOW long over 191.88
MCD long over 226.22
ETSY long over 208.20


Weekly W/L:
INTC long over 65.13
DIS long over 189.10
LVS long over 62.23

ETSY has a ways to go to trigger and may suffer exhaustion risk once it gets there so I would look at smaller timeframes to look for an entry. Probably a 60 minute chart for entry. Likely to get there then consolidate for a day or so before breaking it.

I am not a licensed financial advisor and this is not financial advice but just sharing what I'm looking at.

I am going to start looking at longer term setups and buy options expiring about 6 months out and look to hold for a month or two and look for about 100% wins but will sell when I detect a reversal.
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Once you dig into long term please share. I only do long term. Short term would kill me on taxes


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CJones said:
I kept watching GE last year when it was down at $6-7. I'm kicking myself now for not jumping in on it as a long hold. I got some Delta and Virgin Galactic back when it was at its lowest last fall. Hoping that VG turns into my "Yeah, I bought when it was just $xx! Can you believe it?!" story that I tell my grandkids.
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I got virgin galactic at 10.53 and I also think this will become huge. At least I’m hoping


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murphey said:
I gave up on MF for two reasons....non-stop advertising how great they were, and non-stop failure of ehat they were pushing. Lost a chunk, even over the long term (3+ yrs) I can lose money on my own, thank you.
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That’s why I research and buy my own. Hard to trust anybody else with your money


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Newcor, Martin Marietta, and Caterpillar if you believe the infrastructure bill will pass
 
murphey said:
I gave up on MF for two reasons....non-stop advertising how great they were, and non-stop failure of ehat they were pushing. Lost a chunk, even over the long term (3+ yrs) I can lose money on my own, thank you.
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That's interesting. I was a long time Motley Fool Stock Advisor subscriber. I actually sold all my MF picks and put everything into index funds about 9 years ago; in time to ride the bull market. Then when the major indexes reached all time highs and a new liberal administration in office, I became convinced that it was going to take some solid stock picking to see much in the way of growth going forward. So, I went back to Motley Fool.

I don't buy all their recommendations, only the ones that make sense. And then, only a small percentage in each one.
 
I love how, on threads like this, you'll hear all kinds of posts about how much people made on various positions. Very rarely will you hear anything about losses! It's like the Lake Wobegon effect applied to stocks.
 
F01LA said:
I love how, on threads like this, you'll hear all kinds of posts about how much people made on various positions. Very rarely will you hear anything about losses! It's like the Lake Wobegon effect applied to stocks.
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If you lost money in the stock market in the last 10 years, you need to just put your savings in CDs and call it good.
 
^^^^This
Everything has done well lately and I (knock on wood) have not had any losses yet but have made some risky investments like Tesla and VG but so far are good as well. Which the reason for this thread, I see some stocks going down but I am seeing some that I have watched for a while that are starting to move. You are smarter as a group so I wanted to hear everyone’s thoughts on what is going on and what you think will be the next big movers. I know the the electric vehicles and space exploration has a lot of attention right now but what else will benefit? Example, ALB shot up due to EV vehicles because they are in the lithium game.


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F01LA said:
I love how, on threads like this, you'll hear all kinds of posts about how much people made on various positions. Very rarely will you hear anything about losses! It's like the Lake Wobegon effect applied to stocks.
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Yes, that is important to realize. Nassim Taleb ("Fooled by Randomness") calls this missing information "silent evidence."

The documented fact is that only a tiny number of stock pickers, professional or amateur, are able to beat the market averages over a long (5-10 years) period of time, and the people who study this will tell you that the winners are probably due simply to luck, not skill. Here's a short discussion: https://famafrench.dimensional.com/videos/identifying-superior-managers.aspx

I teach an Adult-Ed investing course and during my research I spent an hour or so talking to a TDAmertrade branch manager. TDA at that time was heavily oriented to individual stock traders. So I asked how their amateur stock trading contingent had done in the previous year (2017). Long pause .... then she finally said "About one and a half percent." For reference, 2017 was an excellent year for the markets, with indexes up from 20% to 40%, and all these individual stock traders managed was 1.5%. (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...o-hit-as-december-comes-to-a-close-2017-12-29)

We humans have evolved to consider ourselves to be exceptional and to have above average luck. This is why 80% of us will claim to be above-average drivers. This is also why the casinos and lotteries will never go out of business and why we are lured to individual stock trading. There are also physiological influences, like dopamine rewards for winning. And some of us get lucky. In the short term it's probably close to 50/50, but compounding that 50/50 for 10 years gets you a single-digit percentage probability of winning at the end.
 
Torque beast said:
Once you dig into long term please share. I only do long term. Short term would kill me on taxes


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Sure. Are you trading options or commons? The system I use works on any timeframe. 'The Strat' numbers each candle. An inside candle is a '1' and represents consolidation on a smaller timeframe. So a '1' on a 60 minute candle would look like chop or consolidation on a 5 or 15 minute timeframe. First you need to define 'long term'. 6 months? 2 years? 5 years? For me I look at the yearly, monthly, and weekly when looking for longer term trades (longer term for me is a few weeks). The Strat also looks for full timeframe continuity (FTFC), meaning all timeframes have to be green at the time I'm ready to enter. We mainly look for reversals back into FTFC. So maybe a stock has been going up for months then has some profit taking and maybe the weekly pulls back and is a 2 down. A 2 down is a candle that broke below the low of the previous candle and a 2 up is a candle that broke the previous candles high. So the yearly and monthly are still green but the weekly is a red 2 down. Once the weekly goes back to green you now have a reversal back into FTFC. This means there are buyers at all timeframes. When this happens buying algos start triggering. As it breaks previous highs it takes out stops, which means shorters now have to buy back. That helps drive price up higher then natural buyers step in. It sounds complicated but after awhile it clicks. I look for inside candles and enter when they break whichever side gives it FTFC. On my very quick scalp trades I don't care what the yearly and sometimes the monthly are doing because I'm not in it long enough for that to matter. But if I'm looking to hold a few days I make sure I have FTFC to at least the monthly.

For longer term maybe try a 10 year, 5 year, 3 year, 1 year, quarterly and monthly charts. If you are only looking for a 6 month trade then a 10 year may not matter and maybe not even a 5 year.

I have a youtube channel and just did 2 videos Friday on the watchlist I just posted above. I have about 75 or so videos. Sara Sabatino has a few great videos on The Strat too. Rob Smith (created The Strat) has a bunch of videos too. His material is free. He started on the options floor at 15 years old. His dad worked for Merill Lynch for years. Rob worked on the floor for like 31 years and spent about 10 years developing The Strat and gives it away for free. I have been trading for about 8 years and tried all different moving averages, oscillators, and MACD and none have been as successful as The Strat.

Sorry for the long post but wanted to help out a fellow poster and hope this helps anyone that is interested.

Here are a few links and sorry if I broke any rules sharing these. If so feel free to remove the links. I get nothing from any of this but just putting it out there for anyone interested. I got alot of help along the way and try to pay it forward whenever I can. The Strat is a great group that helps anyone interested.

Twitter:
@RobInTheBlack
@_JamesBradley_ Jim is a acommercial pilot. Not sure if he still flies but he makes anywhere from $400 to $2000 in the first 3 minutes of market open every day
@CyberDog2
@TradeSniperSara

Youtube:
me > https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCiG8zJkXMYT94qGIougGdxw/videos
Sara > https://www.youtube.com/user/ssabatino84/videos
Rob > https://www.youtube.com/user/smithsintheblack/videos

These people are all more than happy to help anyone. Sara quit her job about a year ago and trades full-time now. She is a single parent in her mid 30's and is very good at The Strat. And for anyone in Chicago Rob welcomes visitors to his office. He has 16 monitors and watches them all day and calls out setups. I'm no longer in his chat room but a few stratters have been to his office.

My first Strat video was 6/30/2020. Prior to that all of my videos talk about other indicators I used to use. Feel free to watch them but if I were to try to help anyone I would tell them to forget all of that stuff and focus on The Strat.

Strat 'cheat sheet' created by Sara (timeframes don't matter):


Screenshot of a setup I shared awhile back (timeframes don't matter):
 
Ugh. I don't do my own trading anymore. I used to be good at it when I did but I couldn't focus full time. I go to take a **** and lose a lot of money. I hired an independent trader that, it is all that he does and he is not constrained by the corporate go to funds. About two thirds of what I have are in stock and the rest privately traded companies.

And don't forget land conservation easements. If you have a really high AGI vs. take home pay, look in to them. They will keep you afloat.
 
Sac Arrow said:
Ugh. I don't do my own trading anymore. I used to be good at it when I did but I couldn't focus full time. I go to take a **** and lose a lot of money. I hired an independent trader that, it is all that he does and he is not constrained by the corporate go to funds. About two thirds of what I have are in stock and the rest privately traded companies.

And don't forget land conservation easements. If you have a really high AGI vs. take home pay, look in to them. They will keep you afloat.
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Yeah time is definitely a factor, especially for short term traders. I have a full time job running a team of cyber security engineers (16 of us) but we all work from home but being in charge I'm pretty busy with meetings and helping teammates. My hope and goal is to be a full time trader in 4 years and I'm pretty confident that could happen. I use thinkorswim and run scans every week. That watchlist I posted earlier took me about 1 hour to scan and chart up. I do that once a week. I also set alerts in thinkorswim so I don't have to watch it 8 hours a day. If I am looking for a a break over an inside candle then I set an alert for that price level. I also have a live scan that scans for inside candles on the 15 or 30 minute chart depending on what day it is. Closer to options expiration I tend to watch smaller timeframes. So with a 30 minute scan I look at it every 1/2 hour. There is usually about 5-10 stocks that show up. I only trade certain symbols so at a quick glance I can see if there is anything that might interest me. I have it linked to my main chart screen so if I click on that symbol it changes my chart to that symbol. I have 1 of my monitors that has 6 charts (weekly, daily, 60, 30, 15, and 5 minutes charts. A quick glance and I can see if all are green. In fact I have a 'ribbon' on top of one of those charts that instantly shows the candle color for every timeframe up to 1 year. Once that new 30 minute scan pops up I can be in a trade in about 30-45 seconds. If I already have the correct options chart up then I can be in in under about 10 seconds.

For longer timeframes I would probably scan for inside bars on a quarterly or monthly chart that have green candles on longer timeframes and set alerts for them to break over the inside candle.
 
Thx for the links, I will check them out. I don’t do short term. I only buy what I think will keep going up in value. I pay enough taxes and don’t need the high tax rate on short term. Hopefully won’t touch any of it for at least 10-15 years. However if my plan works I will just let it keep building even after I retire.


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I'm investing in quality used cars. I bought my CPO 2016 Mazda MX-5 in 2018 for $20,600. After driving it 2.5 years and putting on 6500 additional miles, I got a quote from Carvana at $22,300!

I'm not going to sell (just got the quote out of curiosity), but interesting nonetheless.
 
SoCal RV Flyer said:
I'm investing in quality used cars. I bought my CPO 2016 Mazda MX-5 in 2018 for $20,600. After driving it 2.5 years and putting on 6500 additional miles, I got a quote from Carvana at $22,300!

I'm not going to sell (just got the quote out of curiosity), but interesting nonetheless.
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That is interesting. But generally a car is not an investment. Getting a positive ROI is a plus but it is not s way for most people to make money.
 
I had a 1970 Olds W31 (small block little brother to the W30). Bought it in 1988 from the original owner. He got it brand new as a graduation gift from his dad then it sat in his dads garage for a few years then the dad moved it outside where it sat 2 or 3 years before I bought it for $700 or $800. Had 51,000 miles and the original exhaust, hubcaps (baby moons) clutch, etc. It didn't run so towed it home and restored it. Was offered $600 over the phone for the factory intake and was offered some bigger amount for the factory hood. Restored the car then sold it for $10,000 in 1991 or 1992. About 5 years ago my home phone rings and a guy leaves a voicemail asking if I was the guy that owned the W31 and that he now owned it and was trying to track it's history. I called him back. His name was Stefano Bimbi who now owns Nikkey Chevrolet (now called Nikkey Chicago). I filled in the blanks for him on any info he didn't have. Things like someone installed a factory 8 track player under the dash, I installed a factory replica rear spoiler and someone put a Hurst emblem on the truck lid. Told him none of that was factory but all were factory options. He tracked down the original owner (Elmer) before he called me. He had the car in a show in Chicago and invited Elmer and his wife out there. Elmer and his wife were dating when he got the car. There is a pic of them both sitting in the car and Elmer has tears running down his cheek. After that I looked up some on the internet and they were selling around $50,000....ouch...lol





Here is a link to a forum with discussion and more pics but it won't load for me right now > https://www.yenko.net/ubbthreads/ubbthreads.php/topics/590388#Post590388
 
Sac Arrow said:
That is interesting. But generally a car is not an investment. Getting a positive ROI is a plus but it is not s way for most people to make money.
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Yeah, just thought it was interesting and a reflection on the market at the moment. Making money wasn't the intent, but I owned a Lotus Elise for about six months and sold it for $4000 more than I bought it...the car was just in the sweet spot of its appreciation curve, and there are lots of bored, wealthy guys bidding on bringatrailer.com.
 
optionizerSS said:
I'm an active day trader but only trade options. Don't usually hold longer than a week or two. Traded CAT calls for 56% overnight Tuesday to Wednesday. Had an alert set for DE but the spreads were too large. Also had SBUX alert set this week that triggered but I didn't get in that one. That could have been a nice 100% win easily in a day or two.

I just ran my scans and set my watchlist for next week and for this month.

Month W/L:
NKE long break over 134.69 (T1 = 137.92. Price hit 138.24)
PEP long over 142.27 (T1 = 143.32. High was 144.34)
LOW long over 191.88 (T1 = 192.91. High was 198.67)
MCD long over 226.22 (T1 = 227.88. T2 = 231.91. High was 232.81)
ETSY long over 208.20 (T1 = 231.34. High was 221.67, $9 over trigger)


Weekly W/L:
INTC long over 65.13 (T1 = 67.44. High was 68.40)
DIS long over 189.10 (T1 = 190.5. High was 191.67)
LVS long over 62.23 (T1 = 63.87. High was 64.33)

ETSY has a ways to go to trigger and may suffer exhaustion risk once it gets there so I would look at smaller timeframes to look for an entry. Probably a 60 minute chart for entry. Likely to get there then consolidate for a day or so before breaking it.

I am not a licensed financial advisor and this is not financial advice but just sharing what I'm looking at.

I am going to start looking at longer term setups and buy options expiring about 6 months out and look to hold for a month or two and look for about 100% wins but will sell when I detect a reversal.
Click to expand...

Well checked my results and was pretty spot-on. 7 of the 8 at least hit T1 (target 1) with 1 or 2 hitting T2. The only one that didn't hit it's target was ETSY and it still ran $9 after it triggered.I posted my targets last week on my twitter @optionizerSS so feel free to go back and verify. I posted them on 4/1. Now for full disclosure the market was ripe this week and played nicely so I'm sure alot of people had successful watchlists and not all of mine will be this good.
Updated my list above with what my targets were.
 
What do you think GM and Ford will do since we have the EV push?


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I would have to look at their charts. I don't trade fundamentals and try to avoid them. Many times charts precede fundamentals as insiders start buying. Yeah we know that's a gray area but it still happens. I will probably be running scans here shortly for this weeks setups and will take a look at those charts but it would be strictly a technical read.
 
on the yearly chart both F and GM have had great years so far with huge green 2 up candles. F had a nice reversal and the time to enter that on the yearly chart would have been at about $9.50. Not saying you can't still get in but I would wait for a setup on a lower timeframe now. F is still inside on the quarterly chart so on that chart you would either need a break above the previous quarter at 13.62 or if the current quarter closes inside then wait for a break on the high of that inside candle. On the monthly timeframe you might get some chop since the quarterly is inside but monthly is also inside and last months candle was sort of a shooting star so be careful of some profit taking and pullback there. For me I would want to wait and see if they pull it back some first then look for a reversal back to the upside.

For GM we have a green 2 up on the year and quarterly and monthly. The weekly is sort of a shooting star but has a gap below it. There should be some support at about 58.63 if they pull it back that far.

Remember, this is just my opinion and not advice
 
Not seeing much in my scans for this week. Watching MS for break above last weeks high of 80.73 but will have a tight stop on itT1 = 81.74. Not my favorite setup though. Also CHWY on an inside week up. Break over 144.39. T1 = 87.27. T2 = 92.52

Thats about all I see that I like this week but depending on how well I feel I will be scalping intraday setups. Got my results back today and am + for COVID so not at the top of my game right now
 
Hit that CHWY for about 10% early this morning before it fell back. I sold my calls at 3.20 and they hit 3.41 before falling. Never really looked at any charts after that today so no idea what the market looked like after that.
 
Only 3.69% for me today overall


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