Lance down St, George, UT 3/24/22

8 different owners since 2006. Well traveled machine.
 
I find this one "interesting". Looking at the flight log, he seems to be flying right down the approach, but hit the ground. The track log shows twice that he was "Surface and Near-Surface", once at 6924' and 3954', with the latter being the next to the last tracking. But, that was followed by a 3000' ping for a TDZ of 2884. It looks like he was less than 2 miles from the runway. This would put him inside the VDP but not at the MAP.
I don't know how to look up the weather at the time of the accident.
One other think of note: His decent down to the impact was really high at 800+ fpm with an air speed of over 168k until the final report which indicates 86 knots. The gear down max speed is 129 KTS IAS. (I have the same year aircraft.) Flaps down is 110 KTS IAS. So, I have two thoughts:
1) He exceeded the limits on both the flaps and the gear, or,
2) He waited until the last minute to deploy them.
Neither is good. My normal method is to slow to gear speed and stabilized before intercepting the approach, then dropping the gear. This puts me right on a normal glide slope. Flaps will wait until I can see the runway. The Johnson bar allows for quick flaps down. (Speaking of which, trying to deploy the flaps above 110k requires a hefty pull on the bar, but as he may have just transitioned to the Lance, he may not have known what to expect.) He was flying this approach way too fast.
I wonder if he stalled it by trying to arrest the decent too quickly with flaps up?
 
Continuing my thoughts.
Another possibility was that he broke out and dropped the gear at too high a speed and the nose did not go green. (It won't lock if too fast.) Then, he got distracted with the gear and let if descend into the ground.
 
St. George, at accident time, clear and a million, and non-instrument rated pilot. But the observations about speed and descent rate are certainly noteworthy.

KSGU 241956Z AUTO 21004KT 10SM CLR 21/M11 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP188 T02111106 PNO $
KSGU 241856Z AUTO 19003KT 10SM CLR 18/M11 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP202 T01831106 PNO $
 
I recently started flying a T tail Lance. It seems pretty easy to slow down as long as your trimming a lot. Moved from a 182 that requires a lot of trim too. If someone transitioned from a archer/Cherokee might fee like a handful to get down and slower if you aren’t trimming alot.
 
Yep, we know the cause of most ‘engine failures’? I didn’t see the WX/winds at the time? If there is an incipient engine issue, usually one needs to listen a bit.

I’m glad they are around to talk about it.
 
Unfortunately, I don't buy the engine out statement due to the flight tracking info. With the speed he had that could have been traded for a real good engine out range. Has anyone found any radio recordings?

We will have to see what comes from the investigation. Has anyone seen any pics that might show the prop damage? I may be totally wrong and the guy did loose an engine.

Also, the 76 Lance has a real low maneuvering speed compared to it's total speed. I don't have my POH as I am not at home right now, but I think it's 115-120k. I know it takes 'a lot' to get it down to that speed when you have been cruising at 145-150k indicated and the air gets rough. Also, the 'sticker kits' include two different maneuvering speed stickers. When I first got my latest Lance in 2005, both stickers were actually on the panel. I had to remove the higher speed one because it was wrong. This guy may have had the wrong sticker on his and did not know he pulling up too fast.
 
He lost a lot of altitude really quick while traveling really fast. I know the Hershey bar glides like a brick, but it's why I said the comments were interesting. Didn't look like there was an attempt to get it anywhere near glide speed.
Screenshot_20220327-154513.png

“I remember losing power,” Knell told Cowboy State Daily from his bed in St. George Regional Hospital. He said he couldn’t recall the exact sensation of his rapid fall. The plane “just literally fell out of the sky.”

Prop is bent, but can't tell if it bent from power or terrain.
 
The large blade bend radius and no significant tip damage/material loss, intimate impact while windmilling/not under power. I'm not with the NTSB, but I sure as hell work faster than they do. :D
 
Looks like the flight inbound was just over 3 hours. If he took off near full, should of had enough fuel? Besides that there’s room to make a mistake with fuel tank selection & switching.

Between looking in the tanks, then talking to the pilot, should be easy to figure out if fuel was an issue.
 
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